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Cabo San Lucas property prices in 2026 are still moving up, but the market is now more selective than during the post-pandemic boom.
In this blog post, we talk about current housing prices in Cabo San Lucas, recent price trends, and what may happen next.
We constantly update this blog post so the numbers stay as close as possible to the latest Cabo San Lucas real estate market data.
And if you’re planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
What are the current property price trends in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
Cabo San Lucas property prices are still rising in 2026, but buyers have more negotiating room than they had in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
The most important thing to understand is that Cabo San Lucas is not one single property market, because luxury villas in Pedregal or Diamante are still firm while standard condos in El Tezal or Downtown Cabo face more competition.
For a simple view, the Cabo San Lucas housing market in 2026 is positive overall, but the best gains are now concentrated in scarce homes, view properties, well-managed buildings and locations with strong rental demand.
What is the average house price in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of 2026, the average residential property price in Cabo San Lucas is about MXN 9.6 million to MXN 11.1 million, which is roughly $520,000 to $600,000 or €480,000 to €550,000.
This means the average price per square meter for residential property in Cabo San Lucas in 2026 is about MXN 61,000 to MXN 74,000 per m², which is around $3,300 to $4,000 or €3,000 to €3,700 per m².
In practice, roughly 80% of normal property purchases in Cabo San Lucas in 2026 fall between MXN 4.1 million and MXN 27.8 million, which is about $220,000 to $1.5 million or €200,000 to €1.38 million.
How much have property prices increased in Cabo San Lucas over the past 12 months?
Cabo San Lucas residential property prices increased by about 6% over the past 12 months as of June 2026.
The realistic range is wider, with luxury villas and detached houses rising about 7% to 10%, townhouses rising about 5% to 8%, and standard condos or apartments rising about 2% to 5%.
The biggest factor behind this price movement in Cabo San Lucas is still strong foreign-buyer demand, especially from U.S. and Canadian buyers who want lifestyle, rental income and long-term exposure to a limited coastal market.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of 2026, the three fastest-rising property areas in Cabo San Lucas are El Tezal, Pedregal, and the Diamante and Pacific-side area.
El Tezal property prices are rising about 7% to 10% per year, while Pedregal and the Diamante or Pacific-side area are each rising about 6% to 9% per year.
These Cabo San Lucas neighborhoods are growing faster because El Tezal still offers value, Pedregal has scarce luxury hillside homes, and Diamante or the Pacific side benefits from resort infrastructure and limited ocean-linked supply.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
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Which property types are increasing faster in value in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of 2026, the estimated appreciation ranking in Cabo San Lucas is villas first, townhouses second, condos third, and apartments fourth when apartments are standard investor units without views or strong walkability.
The top-performing property type in Cabo San Lucas in 2026 is the luxury villa, with annual appreciation of about 7% to 10% for well-located homes in Pedregal, Diamante, the Corridor and prime Pacific-side communities.
Luxury villas are outperforming because Cabo San Lucas has limited premium land, wealthy foreign buyers remain active, and distinctive homes have less direct competition than similar two-bedroom condos.
Finally, if you’re interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much should you pay for a house in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a villa in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a condo in Cabo San Lucas?
What is driving property prices up or down in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of 2026, the three biggest forces driving Cabo San Lucas property prices are foreign-buyer demand, limited serviced land, and tourism-backed rental demand.
The strongest upward pressure comes from foreign buyers because Cabo San Lucas real estate is heavily linked to U.S. wealth, dollar budgets, second-home demand and vacation-rental income.
The main downward pressure is condo inventory, because many similar two-bedroom units now compete with each other and buyers can negotiate more than before.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Cabo San Lucas here.
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What is the property price forecast for Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
The Cabo San Lucas property price forecast for 2026 is positive, but it is not a boom forecast.
The most likely path is moderate price growth, with villas and scarce homes outperforming while standard condos stay more uneven.
How much are property prices expected to increase in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of 2026, Cabo San Lucas property prices are expected to increase by about 5.5% during the year.
A realistic forecast range is about 4% to 7% for overall residential property in Cabo San Lucas, with villas closer to 6% to 9% and standard condos closer to 2% to 5%.
The main assumption behind most Cabo San Lucas price forecasts is that tourism demand stays strong, U.S. buyers remain active, and condo inventory does not become much heavier.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Cabo San Lucas.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of 2026, the Cabo San Lucas neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth are El Tezal, Pedregal, Diamante and the Pacific side, Cabo Bello, and the Misiones area.
Expected 2026 price growth is about 7% to 10% in El Tezal, 6% to 9% in Pedregal and Diamante, and 5% to 8% in Cabo Bello and Misiones.
The main catalyst is that buyers are searching for either value, views, gated security, rental appeal or scarce land, and these Cabo San Lucas areas offer at least one of those advantages.
One emerging area that could surprise is the Sunset and Pacific fringe, because newer product, views and expansion toward the Pacific side are pulling buyers beyond the traditional Marina and Medano core.
By the way, we’ve written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Cabo San Lucas.
What property types will appreciate the most in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of 2026, villas are expected to appreciate the most in Cabo San Lucas, especially villas with ocean views, gated security or strong rental appeal.
The projected appreciation for top-performing villas in Cabo San Lucas is about 6% to 9% in 2026, with the best scarce homes sometimes reaching the top of that range.
The main demand trend is that affluent foreign buyers still prefer distinctive Cabo San Lucas homes that feel hard to replace, especially in Pedregal, Diamante, the Corridor and premium Pacific-side locations.
Standard two-bedroom condos are expected to underperform because there are many similar units for sale, and buyers can compare them easily before negotiating.
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How will interest rates affect property prices in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of 2026, lower Mexican interest rates should support Cabo San Lucas property prices, but they are unlikely to create a broad buying rush.
Banxico’s benchmark rate is around 6.50% in June 2026, and mortgage conditions should slowly become easier if inflation continues to move toward the central bank’s target.
A 1% fall in interest rates can meaningfully improve affordability for financed buyers, but the effect on Cabo San Lucas prices is smaller than in many cities because many foreign buyers pay cash or use financing outside Mexico.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Mexico.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of 2026, the three biggest risks for Cabo San Lucas property prices are condo oversupply, water and infrastructure strain, and a weaker U.S. economy.
The most likely risk is condo oversupply, because buyers already have more choice in several Cabo San Lucas condo segments and sellers often need realistic pricing.
This does not mean the whole Cabo San Lucas real estate market is weak, but it does mean generic condos need more careful price checks than scarce villas or view homes.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of 2026, it can be a good time to buy a rental property in Cabo San Lucas if the purchase price is negotiated carefully and the property has clear rental appeal.
The strongest argument for buying now is that Cabo San Lucas tourism demand remains strong, and well-located condos near Marina, Medano and Downtown can still attract steady short-term rental demand.
The strongest argument for waiting is that some standard condos may become cheaper if inventory remains high and sellers accept larger discounts later in 2026.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Cabo San Lucas.
You’ll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Cabo San Lucas.
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Where will property prices be in 5 years in Cabo San Lucas?
The five-year Cabo San Lucas property price outlook is still positive because the city has a rare mix of tourism, foreign demand, limited coastal land and population growth.
However, the next five years should reward better buying discipline than the previous five years, because not every property type will rise at the same speed.
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of 2026, Cabo San Lucas property prices are expected to be about 28% to 40% higher over the next five years in the base case.
A conservative five-year forecast is about 15% to 20% growth, while an optimistic forecast is about 45% to 55% growth if tourism, infrastructure and foreign-buyer demand stay strong.
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Cabo San Lucas residential property over the next five years is about 5% to 7% per year.
The key assumption is that Cabo San Lucas remains a preferred U.S.-linked resort market while serviced land, water capacity and prime locations remain limited.
Which areas in Cabo San Lucas will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three Cabo San Lucas areas expected to have the best five-year price growth are El Tezal, Pedregal, and the Pacific side around Diamante and nearby growth corridors.
Projected five-year cumulative price growth is about 35% to 50% in El Tezal, about 30% to 45% in Pedregal, and about 30% to 50% in the Diamante and Pacific-side area.
This is close to the shorter forecast, but the five-year view gives more weight to infrastructure, water capacity and long-term land scarcity than to current listing discounts.
The currently undervalued area with the best chance of outperformance is Cabo Bello and Misiones, because these areas can offer ocean-view appeal at lower prices than Pedregal or prime Corridor locations.
What property type will give the best return in Cabo San Lucas over 5 years as of 2026?
As of 2026, the property type expected to give the best five-year total return in Cabo San Lucas is a well-bought townhouse or quality condo in El Tezal, Cabo Bello or Misiones.
The projected five-year total return for these properties is roughly 55% to 75% before costs when appreciation and gross rental income are combined.
The main structural trend is that many buyers want usable homes with rental potential, lower entry prices than prime villas, and good access to Cabo San Lucas, the Corridor and beaches.
The best balance of return and lower risk is probably a quality condo or townhouse with views, parking, strong HOA management and a purchase price below the most optimistic listings.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Cabo San Lucas over 5 years?
The three major infrastructure themes most likely to affect Cabo San Lucas property prices over the next five years are desalination, airport and road capacity, and planned urban growth under the PDU 2040 framework.
In Cabo San Lucas, properties that clearly benefit from completed infrastructure can trade at a 5% to 10% premium when the improvement makes daily life, water reliability or access visibly better.
The neighborhoods most likely to benefit are El Tezal, the Sunset and Pacific fringe, Cabo Bello, Misiones, and selected growth corridors between Cabo San Lucas and the Tourist Corridor.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Cabo San Lucas in 5 years?
Los Cabos population growth should keep upward pressure on Cabo San Lucas property values over the next five years, especially for practical homes used by residents, remote workers and service-economy households.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence is the growth of middle- and upper-income households connected to tourism, professional services, remote work and foreign relocation.
Domestic migration into Los Cabos and international lifestyle migration should both support property values, because they create demand for long-term rentals, starter homes, townhouses and higher-end second homes.
The property types and areas that benefit most should be El Tezal townhouses, inland Cabo homes, well-located condos near Downtown and Marina, and value-view properties in Cabo Bello and Misiones.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Mexico compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Cabo San Lucas?
The 10-year Cabo San Lucas property price outlook is positive, but long-term investors should expect more selective gains than during the 2021 to 2025 surge.
Cabo San Lucas should stay one of Mexico’s most international residential markets, but water, insurance, regulation and U.S. buyer confidence will matter more over time.
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of 2026, Cabo San Lucas property prices are expected to be about 70% to 95% higher over the next 10 years in the base case.
A conservative 10-year forecast is about 35% to 50% growth, while an optimistic forecast is about 110% to 140% growth if luxury migration, tourism and infrastructure all perform well.
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Cabo San Lucas residential property over the next 10 years is about 5% to 7% early in the period, easing toward 4% to 5% later.
The biggest uncertainty is water and infrastructure capacity, because strong demand can only support long-term prices if Cabo San Lucas remains comfortable, insurable and practical to live in.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Cabo San Lucas?
The three long-term economic factors that will shape Cabo San Lucas property prices are U.S. wealth cycles, tourism growth and infrastructure capacity.
The most positive long-term factor is Cabo San Lucas’s strong link to U.S. and Canadian buyers, because their purchasing power can keep demand high even when Mexico’s national growth is moderate.
The greatest structural risk is water scarcity, because it can raise development costs, limit new supply, weaken buyer confidence and make some locations less attractive over time.
You’ll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Cabo San Lucas.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it’s in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Cabo San Lucas, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can and we don’t throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we’ve listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why this source matters | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal, Índice SHF | It is Mexico’s main official housing-price index source. | We used it to anchor Mexico and Baja California Sur housing-price direction. We then adjusted the reading for Cabo’s luxury-heavy market. |
| SHF Q3 2025 housing-price release | It gives official recent housing-price movements by property type. | We used it to compare houses with condos and apartments. We used this split to estimate which Cabo property types are rising faster. |
| Banco de México, SIE interest-rate data | It is the official source for Mexico’s policy-rate data. | We used it to assess financing conditions in June 2026. We linked lower rates to buyer confidence and affordability. |
| IMF Mexico country page | It gives internationally comparable macro forecasts for Mexico. | We used it to frame the 2026 national growth backdrop. We treated the IMF forecast as the moderate-growth scenario. |
| World Bank Mexico Macro Poverty Outlook | It provides independent forecasts and risk views for Mexico. | We used it to cross-check the IMF forecast. We used its more cautious growth view to avoid an overly optimistic forecast. |
| INEGI | It is Mexico’s official statistics agency. | We used it for national economic and demographic context. We also used it as the base reference for official data logic. |
| CONAPO population projections | It is Mexico’s official population projection body. | We used it to estimate population pressure in Los Cabos. We linked population growth to local housing demand and infrastructure strain. |
| FITURCA Los Cabos Tourism Observatory | It tracks official Los Cabos tourism demand indicators. | We used it to measure tourism strength behind rental demand. We focused on arrivals, visitor origin and occupancy trends. |
| IMPLAN Los Cabos Visor Urbano and PDU 2040 | It is the municipal planning platform for Los Cabos. | We used it to understand land-use limits and growth corridors. We linked serviced-land scarcity to long-term price pressure. |
| Cabo Real Estate Services market report | It gives local brokerage insight into current Cabo inventory. | We used it for Cabo-specific market texture that official data does not show. We especially used its comments on condo inventory and buyer leverage. |
| Living in Cabo Q1 2026 market report | It gives current local pricing and inventory estimates. | We used it to estimate short-term appreciation by area. We cross-checked it against SHF and tourism data before using it. |
| El Sudcaliforniano desalination update | It reports local progress on Cabo San Lucas water infrastructure. | We used it to assess the timing of desalination capacity. We treated water infrastructure as a key long-term price risk and support factor. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following:
- Is now a good time to invest in property in Cabo San Lucas?