Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Mexico Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Cabo San Lucas' property market is included in our pack
If you're curious about where property prices stand in Cabo San Lucas right now, you've come to the right place.
We constantly update this article to bring you the most current housing prices in Cabo San Lucas, along with forecasts for 2026 and beyond.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
Insights
- Cabo San Lucas condos now carry a median price of around $900,000 USD, which is actually higher than single-family houses at $575,000, because the condo market skews heavily toward luxury resort units with ocean views and turnkey amenities.
- The total closed sales volume in Los Cabos during the first half of 2025 reached $878 million USD, representing a 24% increase over the same period in 2024, even as inventory levels hit record highs.
- Days on market for houses in Cabo San Lucas averaged around 172 days in late 2025, down from 190 days earlier in the year, suggesting that well-priced properties are still moving despite the growing inventory.
- Canadian arrivals to Los Cabos jumped 20% year-over-year to reach approximately 240,000 visitors in 2025, with Toronto emerging as the fastest-growing gateway at 37% growth.
- Active inventory in Los Cabos grew from about 1,100 listings a year ago to over 2,500 listings by mid-2025, shifting the market decidedly toward buyers who now have more negotiating power.
- The Corridor zone between Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo commands the highest average hotel rates at around $800 USD per night, which directly correlates with the premium pricing of residential properties in that stretch.
- About 82% of foreign tourists arriving at Los Cabos airport hold U.S. residency, making American buyer sentiment the single most important driver of Cabo's residential property demand.
- Price reductions in Cabo San Lucas totaled 1,273 for the first three quarters of 2025 alone, compared to 1,193 for all of 2024, signaling that sellers are increasingly realistic about market expectations.
- Los Cabos is on track to receive 4.13 million visitors in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of record-breaking tourism and supporting the long-term rental income thesis for property investors.
What are the current property price trends in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average property price in Cabo San Lucas sits at approximately $800,000 USD (around 14.4 million MXN or 740,000 EUR), though this blended figure masks a wide gap between the modest entry points and the ultra-luxury segment that defines much of this market.
When you look at price per square meter, Cabo San Lucas properties average around $5,200 USD per m² (approximately 93,600 MXN or 4,800 EUR per m²), with condos typically running higher at about $6,500 USD per m² due to their prime locations and resort-style amenities, while houses come in closer to $3,200 USD per m².
The realistic price range that covers roughly 80% of property purchases in Cabo San Lucas falls between $350,000 USD and $2.5 million USD (around 6.3 million to 45 million MXN, or 320,000 to 2.3 million EUR), which reflects the destination's identity as a luxury-oriented market where even entry-level properties carry a significant premium compared to mainland Mexico.
How much have property prices increased in Cabo San Lucas over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Cabo San Lucas increased by an estimated 6% to 9% over the past 12 months, with a central estimate of around 7.5% nominal growth from January 2025 to January 2026.
That said, different property types experienced different trajectories: single-family homes in the Pacific-side master-planned communities like Quivira and Diamante saw appreciation closer to 8% to 10%, while some condo segments that faced more inventory competition grew at a more modest 4% to 6%.
The single most significant factor driving this price movement was the continued strength of U.S. buyer demand combined with limited prime beachfront supply, even as record-high inventory levels introduced more negotiation room in the broader market.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Cabo San Lucas are El Tezal, Pedregal, and the Cabo Bello/Misiones del Cabo corridor, all of which combine lifestyle appeal with relative scarcity of prime inventory.
El Tezal is estimated to be appreciating at around 9% to 11% annually thanks to its convenient corridor access and growing mid-to-high-end condo development, Pedregal continues its steady 8% to 10% trajectory due to its iconic hillside views and supply-constrained nature, while Cabo Bello and Misiones del Cabo are seeing 7% to 9% growth driven by their proximity to swimmable beaches.
The main demand driver behind these neighborhoods is their ability to deliver the "Cabo lifestyle" (ocean views, walkability to beaches, gated security) at price points that feel accessible compared to ultra-premium beachfront alternatives, making them magnets for both second-home buyers and investors seeking rental potential.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Mexico. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by value appreciation rate in Cabo San Lucas places newer, well-located condos at the top, followed by turnkey villas and houses in gated communities, with townhouses appreciating more steadily but trailing behind.
Prime condos in Cabo San Lucas are appreciating at approximately 8% to 10% annually, outpacing other property types because they perfectly match what second-home buyers want: lock-and-leave convenience, proven rental desirability, and easy comparability that lets prices adjust quickly to demand.
The main reason condos outperform is that Cabo's buyer base is dominated by U.S. and Canadian purchasers seeking vacation properties they can rent when not in use, and condos with professional management and resort amenities check every box on that wishlist.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a house in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a villa in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a condo in Cabo San Lucas?
What is driving property prices up or down in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Cabo San Lucas are sustained tourism demand and air connectivity, limited supply of prime beachfront and view properties, and the interest rate environment that affects both buyer financing and developer activity.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Cabo San Lucas property prices is the destination's exceptional tourism performance, with over 4 million visitors projected annually and a 38% to 41% repeat visitor rate, which directly translates into rental income potential and second-home demand from North American buyers.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Cabo San Lucas here.
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What is the property price forecast for Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Cabo San Lucas are expected to increase by approximately 4% to 7% over the year, with a central estimate around 5.5% nominal growth.
Analyst forecasts range from a conservative 0% to 3% in a downside scenario where global risk sentiment drops and inventory continues to build, to an optimistic 8% to 11% if interest rates fall faster than expected and U.S. second-home demand re-accelerates.
The main assumption underlying most forecasts is that Cabo's tourism fundamentals remain strong while the record-high inventory levels moderate price acceleration, resulting in steady but not explosive growth.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Cabo San Lucas.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Cabo San Lucas are El Tezal, Cabo Bello/Misiones del Cabo, select segments of Pedregal, and Pacific-side resort communities like Quivira and Diamante.
These top neighborhoods are projected to see price growth of 7% to 10% in 2026, outperforming the market average by 2 to 4 percentage points due to their combination of lifestyle appeal and relative value compared to ultra-premium beachfront.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these areas is the "graduation effect," where buyers who are priced out of prime beachfront shift their attention to neighborhoods that deliver similar lifestyle benefits at more accessible price points.
One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is the East Cape zone, where lower current prices and improving road access are beginning to attract early-mover investors looking for the next appreciation wave.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Cabo San Lucas.
What property types will appreciate the most in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to appreciate the most in Cabo San Lucas is newer condos in walkable or resort-adjacent locations, followed closely by turnkey villas and houses in gated communities with strong rental infrastructure.
Well-positioned condos are projected to appreciate at 7% to 10% in 2026, benefiting from their alignment with second-home buyer preferences and their proven rental income track record.
The main demand trend driving this appreciation is the continued preference among U.S. and Canadian buyers for properties that require minimal maintenance and offer professional management, which makes condos the path of least resistance for vacation home ownership.
On the flip side, vacant land is expected to underperform in 2026, as MLS data already shows land taking significantly longer to sell (over 400 days on average) with steeper price reductions, reflecting buyer preferences for move-in-ready properties over development projects.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Mexico versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, interest rates are expected to have a moderating but not dramatic effect on Cabo San Lucas property prices, as the market is heavily cash-driven yet still sensitive to rate movements through marginal buyers and developer financing costs.
Banxico's benchmark rate stands at 7.00% following the December 2025 cut, and economists expect a cautious easing path through 2026, which should gradually reduce friction for buyers who do use financing while keeping the market from overheating.
A 1% change in interest rates typically affects property affordability in Cabo by shifting the pool of marginal buyers and influencing developer decisions on new project launches, with the overall price impact estimated at 2% to 4% in either direction depending on whether rates rise or fall.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Mexico.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three biggest risks for property prices in Cabo San Lucas are inventory overhang continuing to build faster than absorption, external shocks to U.S. household wealth or travel sentiment, and rising insurance and carrying costs that could change long-term ownership economics.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing is the inventory overhang scenario, as active listings have already more than doubled from about 1,100 a year ago to over 2,500, and continued accumulation without corresponding sales growth would put sustained downward pressure on pricing power.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, it is a reasonably good time to buy a rental property in Cabo San Lucas if you approach the purchase as a disciplined buyer who takes advantage of the increased negotiating leverage that today's elevated inventory levels provide.
The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that Cabo's rental demand fundamentals remain solid, with over 4 million annual visitors, 80% hotel occupancy rates, and a 38% to 41% repeat visitor rate that supports consistent short-term rental income.
The strongest argument for waiting is that inventory may continue to build in early 2026, potentially creating even better buying opportunities later in the year if sellers become more motivated and price reductions accelerate.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Cabo San Lucas.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Cabo San Lucas.
Buying real estate in Cabo San Lucas can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Cabo San Lucas?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Cabo San Lucas over the next 5 years is expected to fall between 22% and 34% under the base case scenario, reflecting steady but not explosive appreciation.
The range of 5-year forecasts spans from a conservative 5% to 16% cumulative growth in a downside scenario where global macro conditions disappoint, to an optimistic 40% to 54% cumulative growth if rates fall faster and tourism demand accelerates.
The projected average annual appreciation rate over the next 5 years in Cabo San Lucas is 4% to 6% per year, which represents healthy growth for a mature resort market but below the post-pandemic surge years.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on is that Cabo's infrastructure investments, particularly the ongoing airport expansion, continue to support access and demand while global economic conditions remain reasonably stable for discretionary travel spending.
Which areas in Cabo San Lucas will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Cabo San Lucas expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are El Tezal (as it continues densifying with better retail and services), Pedregal (where scarcity and brand value compound over time), and Pacific-side resort ecosystems like Quivira and Diamante (where master-plan momentum supports appreciation).
These top-performing areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of 30% to 45%, outpacing the overall market by leveraging either scarcity premiums or infrastructure-driven lifestyle improvements.
This largely aligns with the 1-year forecast, but over 5 years the Pacific-side communities have more time to benefit from their ongoing amenity buildout, while El Tezal's relative value proposition may compress as it matures and prices catch up to the lifestyle it offers.
The currently undervalued area with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years is the East Cape zone, where lower entry prices and improving accessibility could deliver outsized returns if development momentum accelerates, though this comes with higher execution risk.
What property type will give the best return in Cabo San Lucas over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Cabo San Lucas is well-located condos with strong building management, proven rental desirability, and predictable HOA structures.
The projected 5-year total return for top-performing condos, combining appreciation and rental income, is estimated at 50% to 70%, which translates to roughly 8% to 11% annualized when you factor in net rental yields alongside capital growth.
The main structural trend favoring condos over the next 5 years is the continued dominance of U.S. and Canadian second-home buyers who prioritize turnkey ownership, professional management, and rental flexibility over the space advantages of houses.
For investors seeking the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years, townhouses in established communities offer a middle ground with more space than condos and lower maintenance than villas, while still benefiting from Cabo's tourism-driven demand.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Cabo San Lucas over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact property prices in Cabo San Lucas over the next 5 years are the ongoing airport expansion by GAP (a $2.5 billion investment through 2029), the Ánima Village retail and lifestyle development at Cabo del Sol, and continued road improvements along the Tourist Corridor.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Cabo San Lucas typically command a 10% to 20% price premium compared to similar properties without such access, with the effect most pronounced for developments that improve connectivity or add lifestyle amenities.
The neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments are the Tourist Corridor zone (directly served by road improvements and the Ánima Village project), Pacific-side communities like Quivira and Diamante (which gain from improved airport capacity), and El Tezal (which benefits from its position as a gateway between the airport and downtown).
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Cabo San Lucas in 5 years?
Population growth in the Los Cabos municipality, which more than tripled between 2010 and 2020, is expected to continue at a pace that supports local services and workforce availability, indirectly benefiting property values by maintaining the infrastructure that tourists and residents rely on.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on property demand in Cabo San Lucas is the aging of high-net-worth U.S. and Canadian households into retirement, as this cohort increasingly seeks second homes in warm, accessible destinations with quality healthcare nearby.
Migration patterns, particularly the continued flow of remote workers and early retirees from California (the single largest source market at over 30% of U.S. arrivals), are expected to sustain demand for properties that blend vacation appeal with livability over 5 years.
Condos and villas in gated communities near the Marina and Corridor zones will benefit most from these demographic trends, as they offer the security, amenities, and healthcare proximity that retirement-oriented buyers prioritize.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Mexico compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Cabo San Lucas?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Cabo San Lucas over the next 10 years is expected to fall between 34% and 63% under the base case scenario, reflecting the destination's premium positioning and structural demand drivers.
The range of 10-year forecasts spans from a conservative 10% to 25% cumulative growth in a downside scenario where global macro shocks disrupt travel patterns, to an optimistic 80% to 100% cumulative growth if Cabo successfully captures an increasing share of luxury resort demand.
The projected average annual appreciation rate over the next 10 years in Cabo San Lucas is 3% to 5% per year, which accounts for inevitable cyclical dips while acknowledging the destination's long-term appeal.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Cabo San Lucas is the trajectory of U.S. household wealth and travel sentiment, since approximately 82% of foreign buyers are U.S. residents and their purchasing power directly drives the market.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Cabo San Lucas?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Cabo San Lucas over the next decade are the trajectory of U.S. economic growth and household wealth (which drives buyer demand), infrastructure investment and air connectivity (which determines accessibility), and the interest rate regime (which affects both financing costs and developer activity).
The single long-term factor with the most positive impact on property values will be continued airport expansion and route growth, which directly expands the pool of potential buyers and tourists who can easily reach the destination.
The single long-term factor that poses the greatest structural risk is climate-related insurance and carrying cost increases, which could gradually change the economics of owning coastal property and shift demand patterns if premiums rise substantially.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Cabo San Lucas.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Cabo San Lucas, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Reuters (Banxico rate decision) | Global wire service with strict fact-checking of official monetary decisions. | We used it to anchor Mexico's policy rate at 7.00% as of the first half of 2026. We translated that into what it means for mortgage affordability and buyer demand in Cabo. |
| Reuters (Banxico rate-path poll) | Consolidates forecasts from professional economists with transparent methodology. | We used it to build a realistic 2026 "rates may ease slowly" base case. We incorporated this into our forecast and risk sections. |
| INEGI (Mexico CPI bulletin) | Mexico's official statistics agency and source of the headline consumer price index. | We used it to frame what "real" versus "nominal" price growth means. We avoided overstating true purchasing-power gains in our projections. |
| El Economista (SHF housing data) | Major national business newspaper explicitly citing SHF's official housing price index. | We used it to anchor Mexico-wide housing price growth in the mid-single digits. We used that as the "national floor" when triangulating Cabo's direction. |
| El País (SHF housing data) | Major newspaper clearly citing SHF dataset and contextual indicators. | We used it as a second cross-check on national housing growth. We verified that our Cabo estimates are plausible relative to Mexico overall. |
| Cabo Real Estate Services (BCS MLS) | One of the few sources clearly stating it's based on BCS MLS data with consistent metrics. | We used it to anchor local medians and averages for houses versus condos. We adjusted those levels forward to January 2026 using conservative appreciation assumptions. |
| FITURCA Tourism Observatory | Compiles recurring tourism indicators with explicit source citations. | We used it to quantify demand-side pressure from tourism and air arrivals. We explained why Cabo behaves differently than inland Mexican markets. |
| Reuters (GAP airport investment) | Reliable reporting on a listed airport operator's disclosed capital expenditure plan. | We used it to support the 5-year infrastructure thesis. We discussed how airport capacity and connectivity support property prices. |
| Business Insider (GAP traffic update) | Relays the airport operator's own reported passenger traffic figures. | We used it to confirm that near-term demand isn't a straight line up. We tempered the "always booming" narrative with realistic market expectations. |
| Los Cabos Municipality | Official municipal government publication about housing planning and development. | We used it to ground the "new supply pipeline" discussion. We identified which areas may see more entry-level supply pressure over time. |
| DOF (Infonavit decree) | Mexico's official gazette for enacted legal changes. | We used it to support the point that federal housing policy is evolving. We treated it as structural policy backdrop rather than a precise price driver. |
| World Bank (GEP LAC highlights) | Top-tier international institution with transparent macroeconomic methodology. | We used it to build a conservative macro base case for Mexico. We bounded the downside scenario for 2026 to 2031 if growth underperforms. |
| IMF World Economic Outlook | Top-tier international macro authority used by governments and markets globally. | We used it as a second macro cross-check for 2026 global conditions. We shaped the external demand and risk section around U.S.-linked factors. |
| Oceanside Real Estate Group | Local brokerage with detailed market reports based on MLS data and transaction experience. | We used it to verify inventory trends and buyer behavior patterns. We incorporated their insights on pricing strategy and market timing. |
| Baja Memories Real Estate | Local luxury market specialist with insights on high-end buyer preferences. | We used it to understand luxury segment trends and sustainability preferences. We validated our property type appreciation rankings. |
| Mexico News Daily | Established English-language news source covering Mexico with real estate expertise. | We used it to track emerging trends like fractional ownership and demographic shifts. We incorporated regional context into our analysis. |
| Trading Economics | Widely-used platform for exchange rate data and economic indicators. | We used it to verify current USD/MXN exchange rates for price conversions. We incorporated currency outlook into our forecasts. |
| Visit Los Cabos Tourism Board | Official destination marketing organization with access to primary tourism data. | We used it to understand visitor satisfaction and return rates. We validated the tourism fundamentals supporting property demand. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following:
- Is now a good time to invest in property in Cabo San Lucas?