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Is the property market in Cabo San Lucas still growing?

Is the Cabo San Lucas property market still growing right now?

The Cabo San Lucas property market is still growing in some important ways, but the broad resale market is currently smaller than it was a year ago.

That distinction becomes clear after comparing the latest MLS data, quarterly transaction reports, luxury sales, tourism numbers and development activity. Cabo keeps attracting new resorts, branded residences, wealthy buyers and millions of visitors. At the same time, ordinary homes and condos are taking longer to sell, inventory is high and fewer properties are changing hands than during the stronger market of 2025.

Christie’s International Real Estate Cabo counted 258 closed sales and $160.5 million of volume across Cabo San Lucas and the Cabo Corridor during the first half of 2026. Compared with the same period in 2025, the number of sales fell 16.2% and dollar volume fell 28.3%.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Baja found the same direction using a somewhat broader regional dataset. Its Q2 report counted 399 sales worth $361.7 million, down 13.8% and 26.6% respectively from Q2 2025.

So when people say the Cabo property market is “still growing,” it is worth being precise about what is growing. Cabo itself continues to expand. The resale market, for now, is going through a much slower phase.

Cabo market measure	Latest reading	Comparison	What we see
Cabo San Lucas + Corridor H1 sales	258	-16.2% YoY	Fewer transactions
Cabo San Lucas + Corridor H1 volume	$160.5M	-28.3% YoY	Less resale money changing hands
Broader Q2 closed sales	399	-13.8% YoY	Market still below 2025
Broader Q2 sales volume	$361.7M	-26.6% YoY	Clear annual slowdown
Q2 vs Q1 volume	$361.7M	+30.0% QoQ	Recent rebound

Why does Cabo real estate still look so hot if sales are down?

Cabo real estate still looks hot because very expensive properties are producing huge dollar figures even while fewer homes are selling.

The clearest example came in Q2 2026. Cabo Real Estate Services recorded $456 million of residential sales, around 44% more than in Q1. Yet the number of transactions fell 9% to 293.

Nine sales above $10 million explain much of the gap. Those nine properties generated $160.9 million by themselves, equal to roughly 35 cents of every dollar transacted during the quarter. Q1 had contained only one sale above $10 million, worth $11.9 million.

That also pushed the average selling price to roughly $1.56 million, 58.7% above Q1. The median increased much less, by 18.7% to $525,000.

This is why the average Cabo price can suddenly jump without suggesting that a normal two-bedroom condo became 59% more valuable in three months. A handful of $15 million, $20 million or $30 million transactions can move an entire quarterly average.

Right now, the top end can produce spectacular numbers while the typical seller faces much more competition than those headlines suggest.

Q2 residential measure	Result	Change from Q1
Properties sold	293	-9%
Sales volume	$456M	+~44%
$10M+ sales	9	Up from 1
Volume from $10M+ sales	$160.9M	Up from $11.9M
Average sale price	$1.56M	+58.7%
Median sale price	$525K	+18.7%

Are Cabo San Lucas home sales actually falling?

Yes, Cabo San Lucas home sales are clearly below last year even after the recent Q2 rebound.

Christie’s H1 data gives us the cleanest year-over-year view. Cabo San Lucas and the Cabo Corridor together produced 258 transactions in the first half of 2026, 16.2% fewer than during the same six months of 2025.

Using that percentage, the comparable H1 2025 total works out to roughly 308 sales. In one year, this part of the market therefore lost around 50 transactions.

The dollar decline was larger. H1 volume fell 28.3% to $160.5 million, implying roughly $224 million during H1 2025. About $63 million of transaction volume disappeared from the year-over-year comparison.

Berkshire Hathaway’s separate Q2 dataset reinforces the same conclusion. Its Cabo San Lucas zone generated $93 million during the quarter. That was a healthy improvement from $66.6 million in Q1, but the broader dataset still finished Q2 well below the previous year.

Cabo has improved from the weak start of 2026, while sales remain meaningfully below the stronger levels reached in 2025. Calling the current market a rebound makes sense. Calling it another broad boom would be hard to defend.

Is the recent Cabo property rebound strong enough to change the story?

The Cabo property market has picked up lately, but one stronger quarter has not reversed the annual slowdown.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 report shows sales volume increasing 30% from Q1 and transaction count increasing 16%. Cabo San Lucas itself went from $66.6 million of volume in Q1 to $93 million in Q2, a gain of almost 40%.

Cabo Real Estate Services also found a much stronger Q2 dollar figure than Q1, although its methodology and geographic coverage differ. Its residential volume rose from $316 million to $456 million.

Those improvements deserve attention because buyers are clearly still there. The market did not keep deteriorating quarter after quarter.

The year-over-year comparison is tougher. Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 volume was still 26.6% below Q2 2025, while unit sales were down 13.8%. Christie’s six-month numbers show the same broader contraction.

For the rebound to become a genuine new growth cycle, we would want to see several quarters of rising sales combined with falling inventory and shorter marketing times. We do not have that combination yet.

Are Cabo property prices still rising?

Cabo property prices are currently moving in different directions depending on what is being sold, so a single market-wide price figure hides more than it explains.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 figures show the split clearly. The average condo sold for about $656,000, up 9.2% from Q2 2025. The average land transaction increased 11% to roughly $446,000. Homes moved the other way: their average sale price fell 27.8% year over year to about $1.56 million.

Christie’s H1 analysis also found that the average condo sale price across its wider coverage increased 20.1% year over year, while the overall average sale price across property types came to about $842,000.

Then we have the Q2 dataset from Cabo Real Estate Services, where the average residential transaction jumped sharply because nine $10 million-plus properties were sold.

These figures can all be true at the same time because Cabo has a huge range of properties. A downtown condo, an older Corridor home and a newly delivered oceanfront residence in a private resort community have very little in common beyond their location in the same destination.

For buyers and sellers today, comparable sales inside the same community and property type tell us far more than a Cabo-wide average.

Property type	Q2 average sale price	YoY change	Reading
Homes	$1.56M	-27.8%	Weaker mix/pricing
Condos	$656K	+9.2%	Holding up better
Land	$446K	+11.0%	Higher average ticket
All property types	$907K	Mixed	Heavily affected by sales mix

Is there too much property for sale in Cabo right now?

Yes, Cabo currently has far more property for sale than the market can absorb quickly.

Inventory is one of the strongest pieces of evidence in the whole analysis because it shows exactly how much competition sellers face.

Cabo Real Estate Services counted 2,134 active houses and condos at the end of Q2 2026. Its market-wide estimate came to roughly 15 months of supply, with 14 months for houses and 16 months for condos.

Berkshire Hathaway’s price-level breakdown paints an even tougher picture. Its latest published inventory analysis put homes below $1 million at around 21.8 months of supply and homes above $1 million at 44.6 months. The brokerage says inventory is roughly twice what it was two years ago.

Once supply moves well beyond a year at the current selling pace, buyers can compare far more properties, reject mediocre listings and wait for sellers to negotiate. That is what we are seeing now.

The pressure becomes stronger in specific categories. Two-bedroom condos, one of Cabo’s most common investment products, had 658 active listings in Cabo Real Estate Services’ Q2 report and around 25 months of supply.

For an owner trying to sell an ordinary condo these days, competition is a much bigger problem than lack of interest in Cabo itself.

Are Cabo sellers cutting their prices now?

Yes, Cabo sellers are cutting asking prices frequently enough that price reductions have become a normal part of the market.

Cabo Real Estate Services recorded 1,049 price reductions during the first half of 2026 across completed houses and condos.

The pattern has been building for some time. There were 581 reductions during all of 2023, according to the brokerage. That figure increased to 1,193 in 2024. During the first six months of 2025 alone, it had already reached 1,057.

Sellers first responded to slower absorption by waiting. Increasingly, they are responding by changing the price.

Some reductions are substantial. The Q2 2026 report highlighted individual cuts worth millions of dollars, including one adjustment of about 37%.

Those extreme cases should not be treated as normal for every property, but the overall trend is hard to miss. Anyone buying a resale property in Cabo now has more room to negotiate than during the frenzy a few years ago.

How long does it take to sell a property in Cabo now?

Selling a property in Cabo can currently take five or six months even for ordinary residential inventory, with some segments taking much longer.

Cabo Real Estate Services reported an average 151 days on market for houses in Q2 2026 and 195 days for condos. That puts the average condo at roughly six and a half months from listing to sale.

Berkshire Hathaway’s inventory-based segmentation has shown even longer periods for certain price tiers. Its earlier 2026 analysis put some condo categories well above 200 days and expensive condos considerably higher.

Different brokerages calculate days on market slightly differently, so one exact figure should not be treated as universal. The direction is consistent across the data: buyers have time.

That changes seller behavior. A property that launches 15% above recent comparable sales may now sit through an entire tourist season while buyers visit alternatives. Properties with realistic pricing, good condition and strong locations can still move much faster.

The market has become much less forgiving of a bad initial asking price.

Is luxury real estate in Cabo still booming?

Yes, Cabo’s ultra-luxury property market is still capable of extraordinary sales, and right now it is much stronger than the middle of the market.

Q2 2026 produced nine transactions above $10 million in the Cabo Real Estate Services dataset, worth a combined $160.9 million. Sales above $1 million represented 80% of all residential dollar volume during the quarter.

That concentration is unusually high. Those nine ultra-luxury deals alone generated more money than the entire $121.3 million condo market counted in Berkshire Hathaway’s broader Q2 dataset.

The strength also extends beyond one quarter of giant house sales. Christie’s H1 report found an average condo price 20.1% above the previous year across its wider coverage, while buyers continue to pay premiums for new developments and properties in established luxury communities.

The type of property matters enormously. Buyers at this level are often comparing Chileno Bay, El Dorado, Cabo del Sol, Palmilla, Querencia, Quivira, Costa Palmas and other resort communities rather than browsing the ordinary Cabo housing stock.

Luxury demand today is highly selective. The best oceanfront sites, branded residences, finished homes and private communities can still attract enormous checks. An expensive asking price by itself carries much less weight.

Luxury measure	Latest result	What it shows
Q2 sales above $10M	9	Exceptional top-end activity
Q2 volume above $10M	$160.9M	~35% of reported residential volume
Sales above $1M	84	Large high-end buyer pool
Share of Q2 volume from $1M+ sales	80%	Money concentrated at the top
Q1 $10M+ sales	1	Q2 acceleration was unusually sharp

Are condos the weak spot in the Cabo property market?

Yes, ordinary Cabo condos currently face some of the toughest competition because buyers have so many alternatives.

Cabo Real Estate Services counted 1,289 active condos in Q2 2026, equal to around 60% of all active house-and-condo inventory in its report. Two-bedroom units alone accounted for 658 listings.

Condos also took an average 195 days to sell. The two-bedroom segment carried roughly 25 months of supply, and only 92 sales were recorded against 226 new listings during the quarter.

There is still real demand. Berkshire Hathaway counted 185 condo sales worth $121.3 million in Q2, only 2.6% fewer transactions than a year earlier. Condo dollar volume actually increased 6.3% year over year.

The condo market has therefore become selective rather than uniformly weak. Buyers continue spending, but there are enough listings that they can be picky.

A newer unit with a strong view, sensible HOA costs, proven rental history and an attractive building may perform well. An interchangeable condo facing dozens of similar listings can sit for months unless the price makes sense.

Is new construction in Cabo still growing?

Yes, new construction and luxury hospitality development are still expanding aggressively across Los Cabos.

This is where the long-term picture looks much stronger than the resale statistics.

Park Hyatt Cabo del Sol has added a major new luxury resort to the Corridor. Amanvari is bringing the Aman brand to the East Cape, while St. Regis Los Cabos at Quivira is planned with hotel rooms and residences. Grand Hyatt at Oleada is also part of the current pipeline.

The Los Cabos Tourism Board has highlighted these projects alongside additional golf, retail, restaurant and residential development. Ánima Village at Cabo del Sol, for example, is designed around more than 80 brands, restaurants, galleries and wellness spaces.

These are large, multi-year capital commitments from companies that study wealthy traveler demand carefully before entering a destination.

Development also creates more competition. Every new branded residence gives an affluent buyer another alternative to an older resale home. That can be great for Cabo’s long-term status while making life harder for some existing sellers.

The construction pipeline is one of the clearest reasons Cabo can keep expanding even while the resale cycle cools.

Are tourists still coming to Cabo in large enough numbers to support property demand?

Yes, tourism remains very strong in Los Cabos and gives the property market a much healthier foundation than the weaker resale numbers alone would suggest.

According to the Los Cabos Tourism Board, the destination welcomed almost 3.8 million visitors in 2025, roughly 130% more than a decade earlier. Los Cabos now has more than 22,000 hotel rooms, compared with about 15,000 in 2016.

Hotel occupancy averaged around 70% in 2025 despite that major expansion in room supply. Nearly 80% of the hotel inventory now sits in the five-star category, which tells us how strongly the destination has moved toward wealthy visitors.

The latest 2026 figures remain solid. Between January and May, Los Cabos International Airport received roughly 1.6 million arriving passengers, including about 1.05 million international arrivals.

Connectivity has expanded with the destination. By the end of 2025, Los Cabos had direct links to 42 international airports, including 32 in the United States.

For property owners, that large international visitor base supports second-home demand, vacation rentals and repeat buyer discovery. Around 40% of Los Cabos travelers are repeat visitors according to the Tourism Board, which is especially relevant in a second-home market where buyers often visit several times before purchasing.

Tourism measure	Recent level	Context
Annual visitors	~3.8M	~130% growth over a decade
Hotel rooms	22,000+	~15,000 in 2016
Average hotel occupancy	~70%	Strong despite added supply
Five-star share of hotel inventory	~80%	Highly premium destination
Jan–May arriving air passengers	~1.6M	Current demand remains large
International arrivals in that period	~1.05M	Majority of arrivals

Are Cabo Airbnb and vacation rentals still strong enough to attract investors?

Cabo vacation rentals still generate serious revenue, but current performance gives investors much less reason to buy an overpriced property and assume Airbnb will rescue the numbers.

AirDNA’s latest Cabo San Lucas dataset covers 3,396 active short-term rentals. The average listing generated about $84,200 of annual revenue over the trailing twelve months, with 48% occupancy, a $561 average daily rate and roughly $270 of RevPAR.

The interesting number here is occupancy. A $561 nightly rate sounds exceptional, but an average property is occupied less than half of its available nights.

That leaves a large gap between gross revenue and the owner’s actual return. Management fees, HOA charges, utilities, repairs, furnishing replacement, cleaning, taxes and periods without guests can consume a meaningful share of revenue.

The citywide averages also hide huge differences between properties. A beachfront villa sleeping twelve people should never be compared directly with a one-bedroom condo near downtown.

Current rental data supports the idea that Cabo remains a valuable vacation-rental destination. It does much less to support the idea that every investment property will deliver an attractive yield at any purchase price.

Could the Cabo MLS be making the luxury property market look weaker than it really is?

Yes, MLS figures probably understate some of Cabo’s strongest luxury activity because a meaningful amount of high-end business happens privately or directly through developers.

This limitation is unusually important in Los Cabos.

Private resort communities and new developments can sell homes, homesites and residences without every transaction passing through the regional MLS. Cabo Real Estate Services specifically points to communities such as Chileno Bay, El Dorado, Maravilla, Montage and Costa Palmas when explaining this gap. Christie’s also warns that MLS figures capture only part of the luxury market.

That means a 20% decline in MLS volume cannot automatically be interpreted as a 20% decline in every dollar of Cabo real-estate activity.

We still take the MLS slowdown seriously because it contains hundreds of actual transactions and gives us a very good view of resale conditions. The missing private transactions mainly tell us to be careful when extending those results to the highest end of the market.

It also helps explain how Cabo can have heavy resale inventory and rapidly expanding luxury communities at the same time.

Is Cabo San Lucas heading for a property crash?

A Cabo San Lucas property crash looks unlikely from the evidence we have today. The market looks much more like a crowded, buyer-friendly correction after several unusually strong years.

A crash would normally show up across several parts of the local economy at once. We would expect tourism to weaken sharply, luxury buyers to retreat, development projects to stall, transaction prices to fall broadly and distressed sellers to dominate the market.

Cabo currently shows a different pattern.

Resale activity is clearly weaker and inventory is high. Yet almost 3.8 million annual visitors are still coming to Los Cabos, international air traffic remains large, new luxury resorts and residences continue to open, and Q2 produced an extraordinary cluster of $10 million-plus transactions.

The real weakness is liquidity. Sellers have more competition, buyers negotiate harder and ordinary inventory takes longer to clear.

That can still produce falling prices in individual buildings or communities, particularly where similar condos are abundant. A regional collapse would require a much deeper breakdown in demand than anything showing up in the latest evidence.

So, is the property market in Cabo San Lucas still growing?

Partly. Cabo San Lucas is still growing as a luxury destination and development market, while the broad resale property market is currently going through a real slowdown.

The evidence is unusually consistent once those two things are separated.

Cabo San Lucas and the Corridor recorded 16.2% fewer MLS sales and 28.3% less dollar volume in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier. Broader Q2 data from Berkshire Hathaway also remained below 2025, with transactions down 13.8% and volume down 26.6%.

Inventory gives buyers much more choice, many sellers are reducing asking prices, condos can take six months or longer to sell, and some price tiers carry more than two or three years of theoretical supply at the current sales pace.

At the same time, the recent picture has improved. Q2 transaction activity recovered from Q1, Cabo San Lucas volume rose almost 40% quarter over quarter in Berkshire Hathaway’s dataset, and the ultra-luxury segment produced nine sales above $10 million in the Cabo Real Estate Services report.

As seen above, tourism adds another strong layer underneath that demand. Los Cabos is receiving millions of visitors, hotel inventory keeps expanding, international connectivity is broad and major hospitality brands continue putting capital into the region.

Our judgment today is fairly clear: the easy, broad-based Cabo property boom has passed. Growth now depends much more on the specific property.

Prime beachfront homes, branded residences and exceptional resort properties can still reach remarkable prices. Ordinary resales have entered a much more competitive market, particularly where buyers can choose among dozens of similar condos.

For buyers, that creates opportunities that were difficult to find during the hottest years. For sellers, simply owning property in Cabo is no longer enough to expect a quick sale at a higher price. And Cabo itself keeps expanding — just with a property market that has become far more selective about who benefits from it.

Who is the author of this content?

THE LATINVESTOR

A team specialized in real estate investing in LATAM countries

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