Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Mexico Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Cabo San Lucas' property market is included in our pack
This blog post gives you a clear, honest picture of the Cabo San Lucas real estate market in 2026, including current housing prices, days on market, and what foreign buyers should know before purchasing.
We update this article regularly to reflect the latest data and market conditions in Cabo San Lucas.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
How's the real estate market going in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
What's the average days-on-market in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, houses in Cabo San Lucas sit on the market for roughly 216 days on average, while condos move a bit faster at about 184 days.
These numbers mean that most typical listings in Cabo San Lucas will remain active for anywhere between 4 and 8 months, depending on the property type, location, and whether the price is set realistically from the start.
Compared to one or two years ago, days on market in Cabo San Lucas have increased slightly, which reflects a market that has shifted in favor of buyers who now have more time and more negotiating power when making offers.
Are properties selling above or below asking in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, most properties in Cabo San Lucas sell below asking price, with houses averaging around 90% of list price (a 10% discount) and condos closer to 95% of list price (a 5% discount).
In the current market, roughly 80% to 85% of Cabo San Lucas properties sell at or below asking, while only a small percentage of well-priced, best-in-class listings see multiple offers or above-asking sales, and we are fairly confident in these numbers based on consistent MLS reporting.
The properties most likely to see bidding wars in Cabo San Lucas are turnkey homes in Pedregal with unobstructed ocean views, newly delivered condos in prime El Médano locations, and any beachfront or marina-adjacent listings that are priced below recent comparable sales.
By the way, you will find much more detailed data in our property pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Mexico. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
What kinds of residential properties can I realistically buy in Cabo San Lucas?
What property types dominate in Cabo San Lucas right now?
In Cabo San Lucas in 2026, condos make up roughly 61% to 63% of all residential inventory, while detached houses represent about 25% to 30%, and the remaining share consists of townhouses and mixed-use residential units.
Condos are clearly the dominant property type in Cabo San Lucas, representing nearly two-thirds of the entire market and giving buyers the widest selection of locations, price points, and amenities to choose from.
This condo-heavy market developed in Cabo San Lucas because the resort economy naturally favors low-maintenance vacation properties, the geography limits buildable land for single-family homes, and developers have responded to strong demand from foreign buyers who want turnkey units with rental potential and shared amenities.
If you want to know more, you should read our dedicated analyses:
- How much should you pay for a house in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a villa in Cabo San Lucas?
- How much should you pay for a condo in Cabo San Lucas?
Are new builds widely available in Cabo San Lucas right now?
New-build properties represent a significant share of Cabo San Lucas inventory in 2026, estimated at 30% to 40% of active condo listings, because several large developments have delivered units over the past 18 months and more pre-construction projects continue entering the market.
As of early 2026, the highest concentration of new-build developments in Cabo San Lucas is found in El Tezal (where multiple condo communities have recently completed or are nearing completion), along the Tourist Corridor near Cabo San Lucas entry points, and in newer sections of Quivira and Rancho San Lucas where master-planned communities continue to expand.
Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Cabo San Lucas
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Which neighborhoods are improving fastest in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
Which areas in Cabo San Lucas are gentrifying in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods showing the clearest signs of gentrification in Cabo San Lucas are Centro (downtown), parts of El Médano near the beach corridor, and pockets of Colonia El Médano Ejidal where older properties are being renovated or replaced with newer construction.
In these areas of Cabo San Lucas, you can see gentrification happening through the arrival of upscale restaurants and boutique hotels replacing older cantinas, conversion of traditional homes into vacation rentals with modern finishes, and an influx of remote workers and expats renting apartments that were previously occupied by local families.
Price appreciation in these gentrifying Cabo San Lucas neighborhoods has been estimated at 15% to 25% over the past two to three years, though results vary significantly block by block depending on proximity to the marina, beach access, and whether the property has been fully renovated.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Cabo San Lucas.
Where are infrastructure projects boosting demand in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the areas in Cabo San Lucas where major infrastructure projects are most visibly boosting housing demand include neighborhoods near the Los Cabos desalination plant project and communities along improved road connections from the airport corridor into town.
The specific infrastructure projects driving demand in Cabo San Lucas are the Los Cabos desalination plant (which addresses the region's critical water supply constraint), ongoing airport capacity improvements at SJD International, and road upgrades along the Tourist Corridor that reduce commute times between San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas.
The desalination plant in Cabo San Lucas is actively under construction with an expected operational timeline in the next 12 to 24 months, while airport and road improvements are ongoing with incremental completions expected throughout 2026 and 2027.
In Cabo San Lucas, properties near confirmed infrastructure projects typically see a 5% to 10% price bump when projects are announced, with an additional 10% to 15% appreciation once projects are completed and delivering tangible benefits like reliable water pressure or shorter commute times.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Mexico. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
What do locals and insiders say the market feels like in Cabo San Lucas?
Do people think homes are overpriced in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the general sentiment among locals and market insiders in Cabo San Lucas is that many properties are overpriced relative to what buyers are actually willing to pay, which is why negotiation and discounting have become standard in most transactions.
When arguing that homes are overpriced in Cabo San Lucas, locals typically point to the 10% average discount on houses and 5% discount on condos, the 6+ month average time on market, and the visible oversupply of two-bedroom condos that sit unsold for extended periods.
Those who believe Cabo San Lucas prices are fair counter that the destination attracts wealthy international buyers with strong dollar incomes, that beachfront land is genuinely scarce, and that rental income potential (particularly from short-term vacation rentals) justifies premium prices for well-located properties.
The price-to-income ratio in Cabo San Lucas is difficult to compare to Mexican national averages because the local economy is heavily tourism-driven, but properties here typically cost 3 to 5 times more per square meter than comparable units in non-resort Mexican cities, reflecting the premium that international buyers pay for beach access and resort amenities.
What are common buyer mistakes people regret in Cabo San Lucas right now?
The most frequently cited buyer mistake in Cabo San Lucas is underestimating water reliability issues by neighborhood, because some areas have inconsistent municipal pressure and require expensive trucked water deliveries, which can add hundreds of dollars monthly to ownership costs that buyers did not budget for.
The second most common regret among Cabo San Lucas buyers is purchasing a condo without fully understanding the HOA's short-term rental restrictions, because many buildings have recently tightened rules on Airbnb-style rentals, leaving owners unable to generate the rental income they expected when they bought.
If you want to go deeper, you can check our list of risks and pitfalls people face when buying property in Cabo San Lucas.
It's because of these mistakes that we have decided to build our pack covering the property buying process in Cabo San Lucas.
Get the full checklist for your due diligence in Cabo San Lucas
Don't repeat the same mistakes others have made before you. Make sure everything is in order before signing your sales contract.
How easy is it for foreigners to buy in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
Do foreigners face extra challenges in Cabo San Lucas right now?
Foreigners face moderate additional complexity when buying property in Cabo San Lucas compared to local buyers, mainly because the process requires setting up a bank trust (fideicomiso) and obtaining a permit from the Mexican foreign ministry, but these are well-established procedures that experienced agents and attorneys handle routinely.
The specific legal requirement for foreign buyers in Cabo San Lucas is that all residential property within 50 kilometers of the coast (which includes all of Cabo San Lucas) must be held in a fideicomiso, where a Mexican bank holds legal title while the foreign buyer maintains full beneficial ownership rights for a renewable 50-year term.
The practical challenges foreigners most commonly encounter in Cabo San Lucas include navigating bank Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements that can delay fideicomiso setup by several weeks, finding a notario and attorney team experienced with foreign transactions, and managing the closing process remotely if they cannot be physically present in Mexico.
We will tell you more in our blog article about foreigner property ownership in Cabo San Lucas.
Do banks lend to foreigners in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, mortgage financing for foreign buyers in Cabo San Lucas is available but limited, with most foreign buyers either paying cash, financing through home equity in their country of origin, or working with specialized cross-border lenders rather than traditional Mexican banks.
Foreign buyers who do qualify for Mexican mortgages in Cabo San Lucas can typically expect loan-to-value ratios of 50% to 70% (meaning 30% to 50% down payments) and interest rates ranging from 9% to 14% annually, which is significantly higher than what Mexican nationals pay.
Banks in Cabo San Lucas typically require foreign mortgage applicants to provide extensive documentation including proof of income (tax returns, pay stubs, or business financials for at least two years), a valid passport, an RFC (Mexican tax ID obtained during the transaction), proof of funds for the down payment, and sometimes a Mexican bank account with established transaction history.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Mexico.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Mexico versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How risky is buying in Cabo San Lucas compared to other nearby markets?
Is Cabo San Lucas more volatile than nearby places in 2026?
As of early 2026, Cabo San Lucas shows moderate price volatility compared to nearby Mexican resort markets like Puerto Vallarta (which has similar seasonality but a larger domestic buyer base) and La Paz (which is less tourism-dependent and therefore more stable but with lower appreciation potential).
Over the past decade, Cabo San Lucas has experienced noticeable price swings tied to tourism cycles, with values dipping 10% to 15% during the pandemic slowdown in 2020 before rebounding strongly through 2022 and 2023, while Puerto Vallarta showed slightly smoother recovery and La Paz remained more muted in both directions.
If you want to go into more details, we also have a blog article detailing the updated housing prices in Cabo San Lucas.
Is Cabo San Lucas resilient during downturns historically?
Historically, Cabo San Lucas real estate has shown mixed resilience during downturns, with trophy properties in prime locations like Pedregal and beachfront Corridor holdings value reasonably well, while mid-market condos (especially oversupplied segments like two-bedroom units) have experienced more significant price corrections.
During the most recent major downturn (the 2020 pandemic), Cabo San Lucas property prices dropped an estimated 10% to 20% depending on segment, with recovery to pre-downturn levels taking roughly 18 to 24 months for desirable properties and longer for less competitive listings.
The property types that have historically held value best during downturns in Cabo San Lucas are single-family homes in gated communities like Pedregal and Palmilla, beachfront condos with proven rental track records, and any property with unobstructed ocean views that cannot be built out by future development.
Get to know the market before you buy a property in Cabo San Lucas
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How strong is rental demand behind the scenes in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
Is long-term rental demand growing in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, long-term rental demand in Cabo San Lucas is growing steadily, driven by population growth in the Los Cabos municipality (now exceeding 350,000 residents) and a tight housing supply that makes renting the only option for many local workers and newcomers.
The tenant demographics driving long-term rental demand in Cabo San Lucas include hospitality and construction workers who support the tourism economy, remote workers and digital nomads from the US and Canada seeking affordable beach living, and Mexican professionals relocating to the region for employment opportunities.
The neighborhoods with the strongest long-term rental demand in Cabo San Lucas right now are Centro (downtown) for workers who need walkability, El Tezal for mid-range families, and Cabo Bello for those who want proximity to the Corridor's employment centers without paying premium beachfront prices.
You might want to check our latest analysis about rental yields in Cabo San Lucas.
Is short-term rental demand growing in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
Cabo San Lucas does not currently have strict municipal regulations limiting short-term rentals, but individual HOAs and condo developments increasingly impose their own restrictions, so buyers must verify rental rules at the building level before purchasing for investment purposes.
As of early 2026, short-term rental demand in Cabo San Lucas remains strong and growing, supported by the destination's record-breaking tourism numbers (over 4 million visitors to Los Cabos annually) and continued expansion of direct flights from US and Canadian cities.
The current estimated average occupancy rate for short-term rentals in Cabo San Lucas is roughly 48% to 55% annually (with significant seasonal variation), which is competitive for a resort market where high season months can exceed 70% occupancy while summer months dip below 40%.
The guest demographics driving short-term rental demand in Cabo San Lucas are predominantly American tourists (representing over 60% of international arrivals), Canadian snowbirds escaping winter, and a growing segment of wellness travelers and golf enthusiasts willing to pay premium nightly rates for quality accommodations.
By the way, we also have a blog article detailing whether owning an Airbnb rental is profitable in Cabo San Lucas.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Mexico compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What are the realistic short-term and long-term projections for Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
What's the 12-month outlook for demand in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the 12-month demand outlook for residential property in Cabo San Lucas is healthy but price-sensitive, meaning buyers remain active but expect negotiation room, and sellers who price realistically will transact while overpriced listings will continue to sit.
The key factors most likely to influence Cabo San Lucas real estate demand over the next 12 months are US economic conditions (since American buyers dominate the market), the USD/MXN exchange rate (which affects purchasing power), and whether Banco de México continues lowering interest rates (which could encourage more Mexican buyer participation).
Based on current market conditions, the forecasted price movement for Cabo San Lucas over the next 12 months is flat to modest appreciation of 2% to 5% for well-located properties, with continued pressure on overpriced listings and oversupplied segments like generic two-bedroom condos.
By the way, we also have an update regarding price forecasts in Mexico.
What's the 3-5 year outlook for housing in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the 3-5 year outlook for Cabo San Lucas housing is cautiously positive, with prices expected to appreciate 15% to 30% cumulatively over this period in desirable locations, though significant neighborhood-by-neighborhood variation will persist based on infrastructure improvements and inventory levels.
The major development projects expected to shape Cabo San Lucas over the next 3-5 years include completion of the desalination plant (which will unlock development potential in currently water-constrained areas), continued airport expansion to accommodate growing visitor numbers, and multiple luxury resort and residential projects in the Corridor and Pacific zones.
The single biggest uncertainty that could alter the 3-5 year outlook for Cabo San Lucas is a sustained downturn in US tourism spending, since American visitors and second-home buyers represent the majority of demand, and any recession or currency shift that reduces their purchasing power would ripple through the entire market.
Are demographics or other trends pushing prices up in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, demographic trends are putting meaningful upward pressure on Cabo San Lucas housing prices, driven by continued population growth in Los Cabos municipality (one of Mexico's fastest-growing regions) and sustained in-migration from both other Mexican states and international relocations.
The specific demographic shifts most affecting Cabo San Lucas prices are the arrival of remote workers and retirees from the US and Canada who can work from anywhere and choose beach lifestyle, growth in the local workforce supporting tourism and construction, and household formation among young professionals drawn to the region's economic opportunities.
Beyond demographics, the non-demographic trends pushing prices in Cabo San Lucas include the permanent shift toward remote and hybrid work (which makes vacation homes more practical as primary residences), growing interest in wellness tourism (which supports premium property development), and continued airline route expansion that makes Cabo San Lucas increasingly accessible as a weekend destination from more US cities.
These demographic and trend-driven price pressures in Cabo San Lucas are expected to continue for at least the next 5 to 10 years, as long as the US economy remains healthy, remote work flexibility persists, and Mexico's relative affordability compared to US coastal markets continues to attract foreign buyers.
What scenario would cause a downturn in Cabo San Lucas in 2026?
As of early 2026, the most likely scenario that could trigger a housing downturn in Cabo San Lucas would be a combination of US recession (reducing American buyer demand and tourism spending) paired with a wave of forced resales from owners who bought pre-construction units at peak prices and cannot cover their carrying costs.
The early warning signs that would indicate a downturn is beginning in Cabo San Lucas include a sustained drop in hotel occupancy below 60% for multiple consecutive months, a spike in listings from owners who purchased within the last two years, and a widening gap between asking prices and actual sale prices beyond the current 10% discount average.
Based on historical patterns, a potential downturn in Cabo San Lucas could realistically result in price declines of 15% to 25% from peak levels, with recovery taking 18 to 36 months depending on how quickly tourism demand rebounds and whether new development pipelines slow to match reduced absorption.
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What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Cabo San Lucas, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Cabo Real Estate Services | This is a structured quarterly market report built directly from BCS MLS transaction data, making it the most reliable source for days on market, sale-to-list ratios, and inventory composition in Los Cabos. | We used their Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 reports to establish baseline market metrics for early 2026. We also relied on their segment commentary to understand condo versus house dynamics and supply trends. |
| FITURCA Los Cabos Tourism Observatory | FITURCA runs the official tourism intelligence reporting for Los Cabos with detailed hotel occupancy, ADR, and visitor segmentation data published monthly. | We used their observatory reports to understand visitor demand patterns that support rental markets. We also used their sub-destination breakdowns (Cabo San Lucas, San José, Corridor) to keep neighborhood claims grounded. |
| Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE) | This is the Mexican foreign ministry's official description of the fideicomiso mechanism that foreigners must use to buy property in restricted coastal zones. | We used their guidance to explain how foreigners legally purchase in Cabo San Lucas. We also used their permit process description to set realistic expectations on paperwork and timelines. |
| Banco de México | This is Mexico's central bank and the authoritative source for monetary policy decisions that affect mortgage rates and economic conditions. | We used their policy announcements to frame financing conditions for buyers in early 2026. We also used their data to contextualize FX and interest rate risks for foreign purchasers. |
| Proyectos México | This is the federal government's official platform for tracking major infrastructure investment projects with standardized documentation. | We used their Los Cabos desalination plant project page to document infrastructure that affects housing demand. We also used it to keep infrastructure claims grounded in officially tracked projects rather than rumors. |
| AirDNA | AirDNA is a widely used short-term rental analytics platform that tracks Airbnb and Vrbo data with transparent methodology. | We used their Cabo San Lucas snapshot to quantify short-term rental occupancy and ADR signals. We triangulated their data with official hotel metrics to avoid relying on a single source. |
| CONAPO | CONAPO is Mexico's official population council that publishes standardized municipal population projections used for government planning. | We used their projections to support 3-5 year housing outlook analysis based on household formation and in-migration pressure. We also used them to avoid unsupported claims about Cabo's growth trajectory. |
| INEGI ENOE Bulletin | INEGI is Mexico's national statistics agency, and their ENOE bulletin provides official labor market data for Baja California Sur. | We used their employment data to reality-check local income and employment capacity that supports long-term rental demand. We also used it to keep affordability discussions grounded in official statistics. |
| SHF House Price Index | SHF (Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal) is Mexico's federal housing finance institution that publishes the standard national housing price index. | We used their index to benchmark Cabo San Lucas against national housing trends. We also used it to frame the macro context for price projections rather than treating Cabo as isolated from broader Mexico. |
| BBVA México | BBVA is a major Mexican bank that provides practical fideicomiso guidance used by thousands of foreign buyers. | We used their documentation to translate the fideicomiso into practical buyer language. We also used it to triangulate the SRE's official explanation with how a major financial institution actually implements these trusts. |