Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Mexico Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Cabo San Lucas' property market is included in our pack
If you're thinking about buying property in Cabo San Lucas in 2026, you're probably wondering whether now is really the right time or if you should wait for better conditions.
This article breaks down the current housing prices in Cabo San Lucas, market signals, and local data so you can make a more informed decision.
We constantly update this blog post to reflect the latest market conditions and trends in the Cabo San Lucas real estate market.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
So, is now a good time?
Rather yes, January 2026 looks like a reasonable time to buy property in Cabo San Lucas if you're prepared to negotiate hard and hold for the medium to long term.
The strongest signal is that Cabo San Lucas is firmly in a buyer's market, with about 2,100 active listings and homes taking an average of 5 to 6 months to sell, which gives you real leverage at the negotiating table.
Another key signal is that sellers are already accepting discounts of 6 to 7% off list price on average, meaning the price you see is rarely the price you pay.
Supporting factors include falling interest rates (Banxico cut to 7.00% in December 2025), strong tourism infrastructure with over 3 million airport passengers through October 2025, and ongoing airport expansion plans through 2029 that should keep demand resilient.
For strategy, consider condos in walkable areas like El Medano or the Marina district for rental potential, or look at established gated communities like Pedregal for long-term value, and plan to hold for at least 5 to 7 years to absorb transaction costs and benefit from appreciation.
This is not financial or investment advice, we don't know your personal situation, and you should always do your own research and consult with qualified professionals before making any property purchase.
Is it smart to buy now in Cabo San Lucas, or should I wait as of 2026?
Do real estate prices look too high in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Cabo San Lucas look elevated compared to local incomes but not excessively stretched when you factor in the international and second-home buyer demand that drives this market.
The clearest on-the-ground signal that prices aren't in a frenzy is the average days-on-market, which sits around 154 days for condos and 172 days for houses in Cabo San Lucas, meaning sellers are waiting months, not weeks, to close deals.
Another telling sign is that the average sold-to-list price ratio in Cabo San Lucas hovers around 93 to 94%, which means buyers are routinely negotiating 6 to 7% off the asking price, something you don't see in an overheated market where bidding wars push prices above list.
You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Cabo San Lucas.
Does a property price drop look likely in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful broad-based price drop in Cabo San Lucas over the next 12 months looks low to medium, with selective softening more probable than a sharp crash.
A plausible range for price changes in Cabo San Lucas over the next year would be somewhere between a modest 5% decline in oversupplied condo segments to a 3 to 5% increase in high-demand areas like beachfront properties or established luxury communities.
The single biggest macro factor that could increase the odds of a price drop specifically in Cabo San Lucas would be a sharp weakening of the US dollar or a US recession, since American and Canadian buyers represent the dominant share of demand in this market.
That said, current forecasts don't point to a severe US downturn, and Mexico's central bank has been easing rates (down to 7.00% as of December 2025), which tends to support rather than pressure home values.
Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Cabo San Lucas.
Could property prices jump again in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of a renewed price surge in Cabo San Lucas within the next 12 months looks low to medium, as high inventory levels and longer selling times suggest the market needs to absorb existing supply before another acceleration.
If conditions align favorably, a plausible upside for Cabo San Lucas over the next year would be around 5 to 8% appreciation, concentrated in prime locations like Pedregal, the Corridor's luxury communities, and walkable beachfront areas.
The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive prices to jump again in Cabo San Lucas would be a sustained increase in US tourism and airlift, combined with continued airport expansion, since more flights and visitors directly translate into more second-home buyers and short-term rental investors.
Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Cabo San Lucas here.
Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the Cabo San Lucas residential market is clearly buyer-leaning, with ample inventory, extended selling times, and routine price negotiations all pointing to buyers having the upper hand.
The months-of-supply in Cabo San Lucas is elevated, with roughly 2,100 active listings against about 240 sales per quarter in late 2025, which translates to around 8 to 9 months of inventory, well above the 4 to 6 month range that typically indicates a balanced market.
The share of listings with price reductions in Cabo San Lucas is substantial, as the 93 to 94% sold-to-list ratio implies that most properties ultimately sell below their original asking price, giving buyers clear room to negotiate.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Mexico. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, homes in Cabo San Lucas are significantly overpriced relative to local incomes but can be reasonably priced versus rental income if you target the right property for short-term rentals and manage costs carefully.
The price-to-rent ratio in Cabo San Lucas varies widely, but using AirDNA data showing roughly 44% occupancy at around $718 per night, a well-located condo could gross about $115,000 per year before expenses, which at a $420,000 purchase price gives a gross yield around 27%, though net yields after management, HOA, taxes, and vacancy are much lower and closer to 6 to 10%.
The price-to-income multiple in Cabo San Lucas is extreme for locals, with average quarterly household income in Baja California Sur around 91,000 pesos (roughly $5,000 USD), meaning a median condo at $420,000 represents over 80 times annual local income, which is only sustainable because the buyer base is heavily international.
Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Cabo San Lucas.
Are home prices above the long-term average in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, home prices in Cabo San Lucas appear above their long-term average in nominal terms, though the pace of appreciation has clearly slowed from the post-pandemic surge years of 2021 to 2023.
The recent 12-month price change in Cabo San Lucas has been modest, with some segments like condos showing flat to slightly negative movement (around negative 3%) while houses have also softened, which contrasts sharply with the double-digit annual gains seen in 2021 and 2022.
In inflation-adjusted (real) terms, Mexico's housing cycle as tracked by BIS data shows that national prices have risen steadily but without the dramatic spike that would signal a classic bubble, and Cabo specifically looks past its peak frenzy phase and into a normalization period.
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What local changes could move prices in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
Are big infrastructure projects coming to Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the single biggest infrastructure project affecting Cabo San Lucas property values is the ongoing expansion of Los Cabos International Airport (SJD), which is part of GAP's $2.5 billion investment plan through 2029 and directly supports the tourism-driven housing demand that underpins this market.
The airport expansion is already underway, with Los Cabos handling over 3.11 million passengers through October 2025 and on track to exceed 7.5 million for the full year, and capacity investments are expected to continue through the end of the decade to accommodate growing airlift from the US, Canada, and new international routes.
For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Cabo San Lucas here.
Are zoning or building rules changing in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
The most important zoning-related development being discussed in Cabo San Lucas is the state of Baja California Sur's ongoing work on an updated construction regulation proposal, which could affect building standards, density allowances, and compliance costs for new developments.
As of early 2026, the net effect of these potential rule changes on prices in Cabo San Lucas would likely be to constrain new supply in the short term (as developers adapt to updated requirements), which could support existing property values while adding to construction costs for new projects.
The areas most likely affected by these rule changes in Cabo San Lucas would be newer development zones like El Tezal and parts of the Corridor where active construction is underway, as opposed to established neighborhoods like Pedregal where existing buildings are already in place.
Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, there are no major foreign-buyer rule changes on the horizon for Cabo San Lucas, and the more impactful shift is the easing of financing conditions as Banxico cut the policy rate to 7.00% in December 2025, which should gradually improve affordability for peso-denominated mortgages.
The foreign ownership structure in Cabo San Lucas remains unchanged, with coastal properties still requiring a fideicomiso (bank trust) for non-Mexican buyers, which typically costs around $2,000 to set up and $500 to $1,000 annually to maintain, a system that has been stable for decades and shows no signs of being restricted further.
On the mortgage side, Mexican banks continue to offer financing to foreign buyers (typically requiring 30 to 40% down payment with rates starting around 9 to 12%), though many Cabo transactions are still cash or financed through US-based lenders, so the local rate cuts matter most for Mexican nationals and residents.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Mexico.
Buying real estate in Cabo San Lucas can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Will it be easy to find tenants in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the balance between renter demand and new rental supply in Cabo San Lucas looks favorable for landlords, as tourism volume continues to grow (over 3.11 million airport passengers through October 2025) while adding quality rental housing at scale remains difficult due to land constraints and permitting challenges.
The strongest signal of renter demand in Cabo San Lucas is the continued population growth and tourism expansion, with Los Cabos municipality recording 351,111 residents in the 2020 census and projections from CONAPO showing continued growth, plus record tourism that fuels short-term rental demand.
On the supply side, while active for-sale inventory has grown significantly (from about 1,100 listings a year ago to over 2,100 in late 2025), much of this represents resale properties rather than net new units, and the federal housing program launching in Baja California Sur is focused on affordable workforce housing (starting with 500 units in Cabo San Lucas) rather than the condo segment most relevant to vacation rentals.
Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, days-on-market for rentals in Cabo San Lucas is best understood through short-term rental occupancy data, which shows around 44% average occupancy across the market, suggesting steady but not overwhelming demand that leaves room for well-managed properties to outperform.
The difference between "best areas" and weaker locations in Cabo San Lucas is significant, with walkable zones like El Medano, the Marina, and Downtown Cabo typically seeing faster bookings and higher occupancy than more remote condo developments in El Tezal or areas farther from the beach and nightlife.
One common reason occupancy improves in Cabo San Lucas is seasonality, as the high season from November through April brings a surge of visitors escaping winter weather in the US and Canada, which can push well-positioned properties to much higher occupancy rates during peak months.
Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the best-performing rental areas in Cabo San Lucas, including El Medano beach, the Marina district, Pedregal, and the established Corridor communities like Cabo del Sol and Palmilla, tend to maintain tighter occupancy than the market average due to their walkability, amenities, and proximity to attractions.
Vacancy rates (or their inverse, occupancy) in these premium Cabo San Lucas areas typically run 5 to 15 percentage points higher than the overall market average, as travelers prioritize location and convenience, especially during high season when competition for well-located rentals intensifies.
One practical sign that the best areas in Cabo San Lucas are tightening first is when properties in those zones start commanding higher nightly rates without losing bookings, which AirDNA data shows for waterfront and walkable listings that maintain rates above $700 per night while less desirable locations must discount to attract guests.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Cabo San Lucas.
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Am I buying into a tightening market in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Cabo San Lucas is not shrinking but has actually expanded significantly over the past year, growing from around 1,100 active listings to approximately 2,100 listings, which gives buyers more options but also signals that sellers face more competition.
The months-of-supply in Cabo San Lucas currently sits around 8 to 9 months based on Q3 2025 sales pace (roughly 240 transactions per quarter against 2,100 listings), which is well above the 4 to 6 month threshold that typically defines a balanced market and clearly favors buyers.
Are homes selling faster in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the current median time-to-sell for homes in Cabo San Lucas is not speeding up but remains extended, with condos averaging around 154 days on market and houses around 172 days, which translates to roughly 5 to 6 months from listing to sale.
Year-over-year, the days-on-market in Cabo San Lucas has remained elevated and may have even lengthened slightly as inventory has grown, contrasting with the faster absorption seen during the 2021 to 2023 period when demand outpaced supply and properties moved more quickly.
Are new listings slowing down in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, new listings in Cabo San Lucas do not appear to be slowing down dramatically, with Q3 2025 showing 499 new listings coming to market against 239 sales, indicating that supply continues to flow into the market at a pace that exceeds absorption.
The seasonal pattern for new listings in Cabo San Lucas typically sees more activity leading into and during high season (November through April) when sellers hope to catch motivated buyers, and current levels appear consistent with this pattern rather than unusually low or high.
Is new construction failing to keep up in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, new construction in Cabo San Lucas presents a mixed picture, with condos and pre-construction projects in certain areas remaining plentiful while affordable workforce housing is undersupplied, creating different dynamics depending on which market segment you're looking at.
The trend in new development in Cabo San Lucas shows ongoing condo projects, particularly along the Corridor and in emerging areas like El Tezal, but the pace is constrained by land availability, permitting complexity, and construction costs that have risen with labor and materials inflation.
The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Cabo San Lucas is the combination of limited developable coastal land (a finite resource that drives prices up) and regulatory/permitting processes that can add significant time and cost to projects, which is why the federal government's new workforce housing program specifically targets this gap.
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Will it be easy to sell later in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
Is resale liquidity strong enough in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Cabo San Lucas is adequate but not exceptional, meaning you can sell a realistically priced property within a reasonable timeframe, but you should expect months rather than weeks and plan accordingly.
The median days-on-market for resale homes in Cabo San Lucas is around 154 to 172 days depending on property type, which is above the 90-day benchmark often considered "healthy liquidity" in US markets, though resort markets like Cabo tend to have longer selling cycles even in strong conditions.
The property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity specifically in Cabo San Lucas is walkability to the beach, marina, or downtown area, as these locations consistently attract the highest buyer interest and can sell faster than comparable properties in more remote or car-dependent locations.
Is selling time getting longer in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, selling time in Cabo San Lucas has stabilized at elevated levels compared to the faster-moving market of 2021 to 2023, and while it hasn't dramatically lengthened in the past 12 months, it remains significantly longer than the post-pandemic period when demand outstripped supply.
The current median days-on-market in Cabo San Lucas sits around 154 to 172 days, with a realistic low-to-high range spanning from about 90 days for competitively priced properties in prime locations to 300+ days for overpriced listings or less desirable buildings.
One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Cabo San Lucas is the growth in competing inventory, as active listings have roughly doubled over the past year, meaning your property is now competing with more alternatives and buyers can afford to be choosier.
Is it realistic to exit with profit in Cabo San Lucas as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of selling with a profit in Cabo San Lucas is medium to high if you hold for an appropriate period and buy smartly, but short-term flipping is unrealistic given current transaction costs and market conditions.
The minimum holding period in Cabo San Lucas that most often makes exiting with profit realistic is around 5 to 7 years, which allows time for appreciation to overcome transaction costs and gives you flexibility to time your sale for favorable market conditions.
The total round-trip cost drag in Cabo San Lucas (buying plus selling costs) typically runs between 10% and 15% of property value, which includes roughly 5 to 10% closing costs when buying (notary fees, acquisition tax, fideicomiso setup), plus 5 to 8% when selling (agent commission, capital gains tax if applicable, trust cancellation), translating to roughly $50,000 to $75,000 on a $500,000 property (around 45,000 to 68,000 EUR at current rates).
The single factor that most increases your profit odds specifically in Cabo San Lucas is buying below market value, which the current buyer's market makes achievable since sold-to-list ratios around 93 to 94% show that negotiating 6 to 7% off asking price is standard practice.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Mexico compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Cabo San Lucas, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| BCS MLS Market Report (Cabo Real Estate Services) | One of the few transparent, numbers-first reports built directly from MLS transactions in Los Cabos. | We used it for Cabo San Lucas inventory levels, median prices, days-on-market, and sold-to-list discounts. We treated it as the primary "local market tape" and cross-checked directionally with national indicators. |
| FRED/BIS Real Residential Property Price Index for Mexico | A well-known public data portal distributing official BIS series with consistent timestamps. | We used it to frame Mexico's housing cycle in inflation-adjusted terms through the most recent quarters. We used it to ensure our Cabo conclusions are consistent with the broader national cycle. |
| Reuters (Banxico Rate Coverage) | A top-tier wire service reliable for time-stamped policy outcomes and market context. | We used it to pin the "as of the first half of 2026" rate backdrop (7.00%) and the central bank's tone on future moves. We used it to inform our mortgage-rate expectations for 2026. |
| Banco de Mexico (Banxico) | The central bank's primary source for policy decisions that drive mortgage pricing in Mexico. | We used it to interpret the interest-rate direction going into 2026. We used it to judge whether financing conditions are easing or tightening for buyers. |
| FITURCA Los Cabos Tourism Observatory | A destination-level tourism analytics product used by the local tourism ecosystem with stated sources. | We used it as the cleanest proxy for external demand supporting second homes and short-term rentals. We anchored demand projections with actual airport passenger counts (3.11M through October 2025). |
| AirDNA (Cabo San Lucas STR Data) | One of the most widely used, method-driven datasets for Airbnb and Vrbo performance globally. | We used it to estimate STR occupancy and revenue potential as of the latest data pull. We used it as a stress test for investor buyers who need rentals to carry their property. |
| INEGI Census 2020 (Baja California Sur) | Mexico's official statistics agency, with the census as the baseline for demographic reality. | We used it to ground renter demand and household formation using Los Cabos' 2020 population (351,111). We used it as the base point for growth and housing-need narratives. |
| INEGI ENIGH 2022 (Household Income Survey) | The official household income and spending survey used across Mexico for affordability analysis. | We used it to estimate price-to-income pressure for local wage earners in Baja California Sur. We used it to separate "locals' market" affordability from international buyer dynamics. |
| CONAPO Municipal Population Projections | The federal demographic authority, with projections as the standard input for planning in Mexico. | We used it to support the demand tailwind story based on population growth rather than anecdotes. We used it to justify why rentals can stay resilient even when sale markets cool. |
| Reuters (GAP Airport Investment Plan) | A dependable source for investment-plan facts that affect long-run accessibility and housing demand. | We used it to confirm airport capacity upgrades planned through 2029, including Los Cabos expansions. We framed infrastructure as a multi-year tailwind rather than a one-off headline. |
| Government of Mexico (Vivienda para el Bienestar) | An official federal announcement describing planned housing supply interventions in the region. | We used it to identify an important supply catalyst starting in Cabo San Lucas (first 500 units and broader state targets). We framed where new supply may show up (more entry-level than luxury). |
| Mexperience (Closing Costs Guide) | A comprehensive English-language resource for foreigners navigating Mexican property transactions. | We used it to estimate round-trip transaction costs including acquisition tax, notary fees, and fideicomiso setup. We validated these against local notary schedules and recent transaction data. |
Don't buy the wrong property, in the wrong area of Cabo San Lucas
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