Is it a good time to buy property in Cabo San Lucas now?

Has Cabo San Lucas finally become a buyer's market?

Yes. Buying in Cabo San Lucas is easier to negotiate today than at any time since the boom, although sellers haven't given up.

Christie's Real Estate Cabo counted 1,260 MLS sales across its Los Cabos and Baja California Sur coverage from January to September 2026, 11.4% fewer than a year earlier. The dollar volume fell 13.5% to about $1.12 billion.

Cabo San Lucas and the Corridor did worse on the number of deals: 375 sales, down 18.1%. The dollar volume there held up much better, at $305.4 million (-2.2%), because a few expensive sales filled the gap.

So buyers haven't vanished, but the ordinary deals are thinner. Homes and condos under $1 million take about 250 days to sell on average, and condos above $1 million about 494 days.

The decline also eased a little after a very weak first half: sales were down 17.6% at the end of June. Don't read that as a recovery yet. Cabo Real Estate Services, which tracks residential sales only, called Q3 2026 the weakest quarter since 2020, with 178 sales and about 23 months of inventory.

Cabo MLS indicator	Jan–Sep 2025	Jan–Sep 2026	Change	What changed
Properties sold	~1,422	1,260	-11.4%	Fewer buyers are closing
Dollar volume	$1.29B	$1.12B	-13.5%	Less money changing hands
Average sale price	~$907K	~$886K	-2.4%	Roughly flat on average
Cabo San Lucas + Corridor sales	~458	375	-18.1%	Weaker than Los Cabos overall
Cabo San Lucas + Corridor volume	~$312M	$305.4M	-2.2%	Held up by expensive sales

Are Cabo San Lucas property prices actually falling now?

Some are, mostly ordinary resale condos. There's no broad price crash.

The official Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal index had Mexican home prices up 7.3% year on year in Q2 2026, and its Los Cabos series rose about 96% in the five years to late 2025. But SHF only tracks homes bought with a mortgage. Cabo's international market is mostly cash, resort condos, villas, presales and branded residences, and many developer sales never reach the MLS.

Inside the MLS, the picture depends on the segment. From January to September 2026, condos under $1 million averaged about $399,000, down 5.1%. Homes under $1 million averaged about $403,000, down only 0.5%. Homes above $1 million averaged about $4.04 million, down 2.8%.

Condos above $1 million went the other way, up 24.2% to about $2.68 million. Only 65 sold, so a handful of prime or branded units can move that average a lot.

Anyone saying simply that "Cabo prices are rising" or "Cabo prices are crashing" is mixing several markets. Look at the segment and the building, not the Cabo average.

Why did Cabo real estate cool down so much?

Because the post-pandemic rush pushed prices and construction far ahead of normal demand.

Christie's historical MLS series puts annual sales volume across its Baja markets at about $286 million in 2015 and about $505 million in 2019. It then jumped to around $1.6 billion a year during and after the pandemic.

Cabo therefore entered this slowdown from an unusually high base.

In 2021 and 2022, Americans and Canadians were buying second homes, remote workers could move, borrowing was cheap and developers launched project after project along the corridor. Sellers got used to rising prices and fast decisions.

That's over. Money is expensive, buyers have far more to choose from, and many of the people who wanted a pandemic-era beach home already own one. Meanwhile the projects launched during the boom are being delivered now, and some presale buyers are reselling right next to the developer's remaining units.

Is there so much Cabo inventory that buyers can negotiate hard?

Yes. There's enough property for sale in Cabo San Lucas and the wider Los Cabos market to turn down overpriced listings without worry.

Christie's counted 1,118 active condos under $1 million at the end of September 2026, against 429 sales in nine months: 23.5 months of supply. Homes above $1 million had 362 active listings and 124 sales, or 26.3 months.

Homes under $1 million are tighter, at 17.3 months. Condos above $1 million dropped to 21.3 months as their sales held up.

Luxury resort property always sells slower than a suburban house, so the textbook six months of inventory isn't a useful line here. Even so, one and a half to two years of theoretical supply is a lot.

In practice, you can compare communities, come back to a listing a few weeks later and base your offer on recent closed sales rather than the seller's hopes.

The best properties still sell without big discounts. A unique beachfront villa in a tightly held community doesn't compete with 30 ordinary corridor condos. But average properties have become much harder to price high.

Property type	Active MLS listings	Sales, Jan–Sep 2026	Months of inventory	Avg. days on market
Homes under $1M	612	319	17.3	248
Homes over $1M	362	124	26.3	289
Condos under $1M	1,118	429	23.5	249
Condos over $1M	154	65	21.3	494
Land under $1M	1,306	293	40.1	243
Land over $1M	302	30	90.6	233

How much can buyers negotiate off Cabo asking prices today?

On residential resales, closings typically land about 4% to 8% below the final asking price, and more on luxury homes and land.

From January to September 2026, homes under $1 million sold at 94.9% of their final asking price and homes above $1 million at 92.5%. Condos under $1 million closed at 95.9% and condos above $1 million at 93.5%. Land above $1 million sold at only 89.5%.

The dollars add up fast. At 92.5%, a $2 million listing sells for about $1.85 million. On a $5 million property, the same gap is about $375,000.

These ratios also hide earlier cuts, because they compare the sale price with the last asking price. A home first listed at $2.3 million, cut to $2 million and sold at $1.85 million shows up as a 7.5% discount, even though the seller came down almost 20%.

So don't offer 7% below every listing by reflex. Ask when the property was first listed, how many times the price changed and whether it expired and came back, then compare with closed sales from the last six months in the same building or community.

Are luxury homes where the best Cabo deals are now?

Often, yes, but the deal comes from time on the market more than from falling prices.

Homes above $1 million had 124 MLS sales from January to September 2026, 19.0% fewer than a year earlier. Their average price slipped 2.8% to about $4.04 million, a much smaller drop than the 14.4% seen at mid-year.

Homes below $1 million held up far better: sales almost flat (-0.6%) and prices too.

The gap shows in inventory and timing. Luxury homes carry 26.3 months of supply against 17.3 below $1 million, and they sit 289 days on average before selling.

That's where a patient cash buyer is most useful. A villa owner who has waited nine or ten months knows the next credible buyer may not show up next week.

"Luxury Cabo" still covers everything from older hillside villas in Pedregal to new homes in private golf communities. And Christie's estimates more than $400 million of developer, presale and branded-residence sales in 2026 that the MLS doesn't see. But on resale homes above $1 million, buyers currently hold more cards.

Metric (Jan–Sep 2026)	Homes under $1M	Homes over $1M
Sales	319	124
Sales change	-0.6%	-19.0%
Average sale price	$403,321	$4,039,777
Price change	-0.5%	-2.8%
Sale-to-list ratio	94.9%	92.5%
Months of inventory	17.3	26.3
Average days on market	248	289

Are cheaper Cabo condos actually a bargain now?

Not automatically. Condos under $1 million look affordable next to villas, but they're the most crowded part of the market.

Christie's counted 1,118 of them for sale at the end of September 2026, against 429 sales in nine months. Sales were down 15.9% and the average price down 5.1%.

The longer trend is worse for ordinary two-bedroom condos. Cabo Real Estate Services counted 737 two-bedroom condo sales in 2021 and 720 in 2022, then 459 in 2023, 391 in 2024 and 320 in 2025: about 57% fewer in four years, while new buildings kept opening along the corridor and around town.

Asking prices sit above closed sales. TuLugar's October 2026 listings put the median two-bedroom condo at $325,000 and the median condo of any size at $371,000 across Los Cabos.

Paying more for something genuinely scarce can make sense: walking distance to the marina, an unblocked ocean view, direct beach access, unusually low HOA fees or a real rental history. Brokers put the premium for a real ocean view at 20% to 40%, so make sure it's a real view. A generic condo needs a low price, because there's too much similar supply to pay a scarcity premium for something that isn't scarce.

Cabo San Lucas or San José del Cabo: which is the better buy now?

Cabo San Lucas gives you more room to negotiate; San José del Cabo costs more per m² but its rentals book more nights. It depends on what you want the property to do.

Asking prices first. DEDALO's September 2026 listing data puts condos around the Cabo San Lucas center and marina at about $2,897 per m², El Tezal at about $3,218, Pedregal at about $3,982, San José del Cabo at about $4,103 and the Palmilla corridor at about $5,658. These are asking prices on active listings, not sales.

Then demand. Cabo San Lucas and the Corridor lost 18.1% of their MLS sales from January to September 2026, more than Los Cabos overall (-11.4%). On short-term rentals, AirDNA puts Cabo San Lucas at 48% occupancy and San José del Cabo at 58% over the year to September 2026. Cabo San Lucas earns much more per booked night (about $567 on average, against about $135 in San José), mostly because its listings include far more large luxury villas. Don't compare the two revenue figures as if they were the same product.

What to do: if you want to rent to tourists and walk to the marina, the Cabo San Lucas core and El Médano make sense, but buy at a price that works at 48% occupancy. If you want to live there part of the year, San José del Cabo's town center and the inland condo hills like El Tezal are often a quieter, cheaper-to-run choice; just check the water supply building by building (we cover the 2026 water crisis and new buying costs here).

Is Cabo tourism still growing enough to support property prices?

Tourism is still strong, but 2026 is a soft year, and you shouldn't count on another visitor boom.

The Los Cabos Tourism Board reports close to 3.8 million visitors in 2025, more than 22,000 hotel rooms, nearly 80% of them five-star, about 70% hotel occupancy at an average rate close to $440 a night, and about 40% of visitors coming back.

2026 is weaker. Los Cabos airport handled 5.35 million passengers from January to September, 5.6% fewer than a year earlier. International passengers fell 8.4%, and 14.7% in September alone.

That matters because many US and Canadian buyers first discover Cabo as tourists. One weak year won't break the market, but it won't help clear the resale stock either. A purchase today should work with flat tourism; it shouldn't need another surge.

Cabo tourism measure	Recent level	What we see
Visitors in 2025	Close to 3.8M	A large international base
Hotel inventory	22,000+ rooms	Nearly 80% five-star
2025 hotel occupancy	~70%	Average rate close to $440
Repeat visitors	~40%	A loyal customer base
Airport passengers, Jan–Sep 2026	5.35M	-5.6% year on year
International passengers, Jan–Sep 2026	3.21M	-8.4% year on year

Can a Cabo Airbnb still justify buying an investment property?

Yes, but only if the numbers work at ordinary occupancy. Building the case on Christmas and spring break rates doesn't hold anymore.

AirDNA counts about 2,434 active short-term rentals in Cabo San Lucas, with 48% occupancy over the year to September 2026, an average nightly rate of about $567 and about $84,100 of yearly revenue per listing. That average includes big luxury villas; a two-bedroom condo earns far less.

Your condo also competes with hotels, branded residences and every other rental in the same building. A unit that does great at Christmas can sit half empty for long stretches.

Then the costs: management (often around 20% to 30% of revenue), cleaning, utilities, furniture replacement, HOA fees, maintenance and insurance. On top of that, a non-resident landlord owes 25% of gross rent in Mexican income tax, before any costs.

So test the rental at median occupancy. If the purchase only works at 70% occupancy and peak rates all year, the price is too high. The properties worth paying up for are the ones that can explain why a guest picks them over the next 20 Cabo listings.

Do high mortgage rates and the swinging peso make Cabo harder to buy?

High rates, yes. The peso matters less than people think, because most Cabo homes are priced in dollars.

Mexican banks advertised mortgages at about 11.31% on average in August 2026 (Banco de México), and the average rate actually granted was about 9.99% in June (Mexican banks' association). Banxico has paused its policy rate at 6.50%. Those loans are mostly for residents; foreign buyers usually pay cash or use cross-border lenders that ask for at least 35% down.

At those costs, leverage eats most of the discount you negotiate. Cash buyers are in a different spot: high rates remove financed competitors and make a cash offer more convincing to a seller who has waited months.

The peso no longer points one way. It was under 17 per dollar in early September 2026 and is about 18.6 today, still stronger than the more than 20 of late 2024. HOA fees, property tax, notary fees, utilities and staff are often paid in pesos, so your running costs in dollars move with it. Fix the purchase price in dollars, and don't buy a property you'd only like at today's rate.

Cost factor	Recent level	Effect on a Cabo buyer
Average advertised Mexican mortgage rate (Aug 2026)	~11.31%	Expensive leverage
Average rate actually granted (Jun 2026)	~9.99%	Still high for a rental
Banxico policy rate	6.50% (on pause)	No quick relief in sight
Peso per US dollar	~18.6 (under 17 in early Sep 2026)	Running costs in dollars swing
Cash buyer position	Strong	Fewer competitors, more leverage

Can Cabo closing costs, HOA fees and insurance ruin an otherwise good deal?

Yes. A property can look cheap at the asking price and turn mediocre once you add buying costs and what it costs to own each year.

Los Cabos charges a 3% acquisition tax, then come the notary, registry, appraisal and the bank trust. Budget about 6% to 9% of the price in total; a local 2026 breakdown puts it at about $20,250 on a $300,000 condo (6.75%). At 7%, a $1 million purchase costs about $70,000 before you've bought a single chair.

HOA dues weigh more over time. Basic condos may charge a few hundred dollars a month, resort communities much more, and branded residences with hotel services can reach four figures. A $1,000 monthly HOA is $120,000 over ten years before increases or special assessments, enough to cancel a $50,000 discount.

Insurance is a real line here too. Mexican home policies in Cabo often carry a 5% hurricane and flood deductible on the insured value. Hurricane Rachel stayed offshore in early October 2026, but beaches closed and shelters opened; ask what the building went through in past storms and what the HOA's policy covers.

Cabo is in the coastal restricted zone, so a foreigner holds a home through a fideicomiso bank trust, renewable for 50-year periods. Add MXN 21,650 (about $1,160) for the foreign ministry permit, about $550 to $800 to open the trust and $550 to $700 a year after. Before making an offer, work out what that exact property costs to own over ten years.

Is buying new construction in Cabo better than buying resale today?

Look at resale first. Slow sales give you clear leverage on finished units, although some developers can beat that with incentives.

With a resale, you know what you're buying. You can stand on the terrace, see whether another building blocks the view, check the finishes and the water setup, read the HOA accounts and compare the price with real closed sales.

Developers play a different game. Cutting a published $1 million price to $900,000 can hurt the value of every remaining unit, so they offer furniture, closing-cost credits, upgrades or a better payment schedule instead. A smaller headline discount can hide a decent effective price.

Presales add risk: the area changes before delivery, completion slips, and hundreds of similar units can hit the market at the same time. If you buy off-plan, pay through escrow, tie payments to visible progress, and compare the full price of a finished, furnished unit on both sides.

Is land in Cabo a bargain or a trap right now?

For most buyers, a trap. Land is the slowest, most discounted part of the Cabo market, and it earns nothing while you wait.

Christie's counted 1,306 lots under $1 million for sale at the end of September 2026, against 293 sales in nine months: 40.1 months of supply. Above $1 million, 302 listings and only 30 sales (-30.2%) means about 90.6 months, or more than seven years. Land above $1 million closed at 89.5% of asking, the biggest discount in the market.

Asking prices give a sense of scale: TuLugar's October 2026 data puts the median lot under 500 m² at about $158,000 and land at about $336 per m² across Los Cabos. Lots under $1 million actually sold for about $210,000 on average, down 4.9%.

Water is the new question for anyone who wants to build. In July 2026, the state governor said Los Cabos might refuse new development permits unless developers prove they have water. It's a proposal, not a law, but before buying a lot, get written confirmation of water and power connections, a building permit path, and proof the land isn't ejido. Only buy land you'd be happy to hold for years, at a price that reflects how hard it is to resell.

Could Cabo property get much cheaper if we wait another year?

Some properties will, but waiting for a broad crash doesn't look like a good plan.

There's room for more price cuts: luxury homes sell slowly, ordinary condos face heavy competition and land barely moves. Owners who've already waited a year may accept offers they'd reject today.

But nothing points to forced selling. The official SHF index is still rising, many Cabo owners bought in cash, and a wealthy second-home owner can leave a listing up, or let it expire, until someone meets their price. Prices can drift lower without the wave of distressed sales bargain hunters imagine.

So time the seller, not the market. If a condo has many identical units for sale, time is on your side. If a seller ignores recent comparable sales, leave the offer on the table. A rare beachfront home is different: waiting for a theoretical 10% drop is pointless if that exact property rarely comes up.

Who should actually buy Cabo property now?

Cash buyers who plan to own for many years have the clearest reason to buy now; short-term and heavily financed buyers have the weakest.

A second-home buyer with a ten-year horizon can absorb Cabo's high buying costs and use the slow resale market to negotiate. So can a lifestyle buyer who finds a genuinely scarce property they'll actually use.

Luxury cash buyers are well placed too, because homes above $1 million take 289 days on average to sell. A credible offer is worth a lot to a seller who has waited months for the next multimillion-dollar buyer.

Rental investors need a higher bar: median occupancy, manageable HOA fees, the 25% tax on gross rent, and a clear reason the property will beat Cabo's large pool of alternatives.

Short-term speculators have the worst setup. With 6% to 9% in buying costs, slow resales and no reason to expect fast price growth over two or three years, there's little room for error. Heavily financed buyers lose much of their negotiated discount to interest.

Buyer	Buy now?	Our view
Cash buyer holding 7–10+ years	Yes	Negotiating conditions are good
Lifestyle buyer who found a scarce property	Yes	The right property matters more than perfect timing
Luxury cash buyer	Often yes	Sellers face thin demand
Conservative rental investor	Selectively	Only if the numbers work at median occupancy
Buyer of a generic condo	Only with a strong discount	Supply is abundant
Land buyer	Rarely	Years of supply and no income while you wait
Heavily financed buyer	Usually no	Borrowing costs eat the discount
Short-term speculator	No	High buying costs and slow resales

So, is it a good time to buy property in Cabo San Lucas now?

Yes, selectively. Buyers have more leverage in Cabo San Lucas than at any time since the post-pandemic boom, and we'd be comfortable buying the right property at the right price.

The case comes from the balance of power. Sales are down 18.1% in Cabo San Lucas and the Corridor, ordinary condos carry about two years of supply, luxury homes take close to ten months to sell, and closings routinely land below asking.

Cabo itself is still in demand: close to 3.8 million visitors in 2025, expensive hotels that fill, and $305.4 million of MLS sales in Cabo San Lucas and the Corridor in nine months. The 8.4% drop in international air passengers in 2026 is the thing to watch.

There's no reason to rush into an average listing, though. You can compare, negotiate and walk away. Generic condos are easy to replace, land is hard to resell, and expensive debt makes weak deals worse.

The best setup is a cash buyer with a seven-to-ten-year horizon buying a scarce or clearly underpriced property from a seller who has already waited months. For that buyer, we'd rather negotiate now than wait for a crash that the data doesn't show.

If you'd use expensive debt, plan to flip within a few years or count on high Airbnb occupancy, we'd pass for now. Cabo is a good place to hunt for a deal, and still a bad place to pay whatever the seller asks.