Get all the data you need about the real estate market in Puerto Vallarta
SUMMARY
Yes. Puerto Vallarta still has too many condos relative to current buyer absorption, although the oversupply has finally started to shrink.
The imbalance came from supply growing much faster than demand. Teseo's series shows active condo inventory rising from roughly 800 units in 2020 to 3,211 in 2025, while annual transactions roughly doubled rather than quadrupled.
The timing explains why the market suddenly feels crowded. Many projects were planned when sales were accelerating into the 2023 peak, then reached buyers after demand had already cooled.
The newest inventory data is encouraging, but not enough to call the market healthy. Active condo inventory is down 15.4% year over year and new listings are down sharply, yet year-to-date closings have also fallen about 25% and average marketing time is still close to nine months.
Price weakness is showing up more clearly in negotiation and liquidity than in a broad market crash. Some recent resales closed 5% to 12% below asking, while long-term owners still have enough embedded gains to wait rather than sell at distressed prices.
Oversupply is highly local. Emiliano Zapata still has real transaction volume, while Amapas and tiny submarkets such as Mojoneras can carry much heavier inventory relative to sales. At the building level, liquidity can disappear almost completely even when the wider city is still trading.
Presales are part of the pressure because they compete directly with resale owners. In one FlexMLS-based 2025 dataset, presales represented almost 46% of condo transactions, so a resale seller is competing with both neighboring owners and developers offering staged payments and brand-new inventory.
Airbnb demand cannot clean up the excess by itself. Puerto Vallarta still has a large short-term-rental market, but lower average daily rates and weaker RevPAR show that owners are often competing on price rather than benefiting from effortless demand growth.
Tourism is not currently giving the market an easy bailout either. Puerto Vallarta airport traffic was down about 12.6% in the first seven months of 2026, with international traffic particularly soft, which is a poor backdrop for a market leaning heavily on foreign second-home and vacation-rental buyers.
The most exposed condos are the interchangeable ones: ordinary layouts, weak views, high HOA fees, optimistic pricing and no proven rental edge. Prime oceanfront units and genuinely scarce properties can still sell well; the large middle of similar investor-oriented condos is where buyer leverage is strongest.
The market is therefore correcting, not cleared. Puerto Vallarta needs a longer stretch in which fewer condos enter the market while sales stabilize or improve before the current oversupply can reasonably be called finished.
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Are there too many condos in Puerto Vallarta now?
Yes. Puerto Vallarta currently has more condos than buyers can comfortably absorb, although the latest numbers suggest the market has finally started working through some of that excess supply.
The clearest long-term evidence comes from Teseo Data Lab's Puerto Vallarta–Riviera Nayarit market series. It estimates that active condo inventory grew from roughly 800 units in 2020 to 3,211 in 2025, with around 3,500 projected for 2026. Annual transactions increased too, but nowhere near as quickly: from about 1,200 in 2020 to a peak of 2,800 in 2023, before slipping to roughly 2,400 in 2025.
If we turn those figures into a rough inventory-to-sales ratio, the change becomes much easier to see. The market carried the equivalent of about eight months of annual sales in 2020 and only 6.4 months at the 2023 boom peak. Using Teseo's 2025 numbers gives us roughly 16 months. That calculation is only an approximation because Teseo's active-condo figure is not a formal MLS months-of-inventory measure, but the direction is hard to miss.
The latest FlexMLS data adds an important update. Active condo inventory has recently fallen 15.4% year over year to 2,801 units. So Puerto Vallarta still looks oversupplied compared with its recent history, but supply is no longer simply piling up at the same pace.
| Market year | Active condos | Annual transactions | Rough inventory / annual sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~800 | 1,200 | ~8.0 months |
| 2023 | ~1,500 | 2,800 | ~6.4 months |
| 2025 | 3,211 | ~2,400 | ~16.1 months |
| 2026 projection | ~3,500 | ~2,600 | ~16.2 months |
Why does Puerto Vallarta suddenly feel packed with condos?
Puerto Vallarta feels full of condos today because developers kept delivering projects conceived during a much hotter buying cycle.
The timing explains a lot. Teseo estimates annual transactions jumped from roughly 1,200 in 2020 to 1,800 in 2021, 2,400 in 2022 and 2,800 in 2023. When developers were deciding whether to buy land, finance projects and launch presales, demand looked exceptionally strong.
Condos take years to plan and deliver. By the time much of that construction reached the market, sales had already cooled from the 2023 peak. Active inventory went from roughly 1,500 units in 2023 to around 2,000 in 2024 and 3,211 in 2025.
That lag is why the city can feel as though condos appeared everywhere almost overnight. The actual building decisions were spread over several years; the finished supply became visible much later.
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Did Puerto Vallarta condo demand collapse, or did builders simply add too much?
Builders added supply much faster than condo demand weakened in Puerto Vallarta.
Teseo's figures make the difference clear. Transactions roughly doubled between 2020 and 2025, from about 1,200 to 2,400. Active condo inventory increased about fourfold over the same period, from roughly 800 to 3,211.
Another FlexMLS analysis gives us a similar picture from a different dataset. It counted 1,133 condo sales in 2025, up from 945 the year before, while 3,448 new condo listings entered the system during 2025. Buyers were clearly still purchasing condos. They simply had far more properties competing for their attention.
Puerto Vallarta has not run out of condo buyers. Development outran the growth in buyers.
| Teseo market series | 2020 | 2023 | 2025 | Change 2020–25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active condos | ~800 | ~1,500 | 3,211 | ~+301% |
| Annual transactions | 1,200 | 2,800 | ~2,400 | ~+100% |
| Rough months of inventory | ~8.0 | ~6.4 | ~16.1 | ~2× higher |
| Market direction | Tight | Very liquid | Oversupplied | Clear deterioration |
Is Puerto Vallarta condo inventory still getting worse today?
No. Puerto Vallarta condo inventory is finally shrinking year over year, which is the strongest recent evidence that the oversupply may have peaked.
Coldwell Banker La Costa's latest review of FlexMLS data put active condo inventory at 2,801 units, down 15.4% from the same period a year earlier. New condo listings were down an even sharper 59%.
The catch is that buyers also slowed down. Only 69 condos closed during the latest month measured, versus 86 a year earlier, while year-to-date closings were 601 against 800, a 24.9% decline. Pending condo sales were down 31.6% for the month as well.
So "recovery" would be too generous for now. Inventory is coming down, but sales are also running below last year's pace. Puerto Vallarta still looks like an oversupplied condo market that has started correcting itself.
| Latest FlexMLS condo measure | Current reading | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Active inventory | 2,801 units | -15.4% |
| New listings | — | -59.0% |
| Monthly closed sales | 69 | -19.8% |
| Year-to-date closed sales | 601 | -24.9% |
| Pending sales | — | -31.6% |
| Average days on market | 278 days | +13.5% |
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Are Puerto Vallarta condos taking too long to sell?
Yes. Puerto Vallarta condos are still taking long enough to sell that we cannot call today's market tight.
Teseo's longer series shows days on market rising from about 90 in 2020 to 140 in 2023, 160 in 2024 and more than 200 in 2025. Its separate sales-velocity measure moved above 300 days per sale.
The freshest FlexMLS reading is even more useful because it tells us what is happening now. Average condo days on market recently reached 278 days, up 13.5% from a year earlier. A previous monthly reading had reached 314 days.
Roughly nine months on market is a very different environment from one in which buyers have to make an offer within a weekend. Good condos can still move quickly, but the typical seller currently needs patience.
Are Puerto Vallarta condo sellers cutting prices?
Yes. Puerto Vallarta condo buyers are getting real discounts now, although the reductions vary a lot from one property to another.
Recent closed transactions give us a better view than asking prices. SearchPV recorded an Agave Vallarta condo in Emiliano Zapata closing at $600,000 after being listed at $685,000, a discount of about 12.4%. A Serdan condo listed at $299,000 sold for $275,000, about 8% below asking. An Indah unit in Lower Conchas Chinas closed at $1.77 million versus a $1.879 million list price, roughly 5.8% lower.
Other properties have held up much better. A Loma Linda condo in Amapas sold for $675,000 against a $695,000 asking price, only around 2.9% below ask.
The spread between those deals is more useful than a single average discount. Buyers have negotiating power, especially when several similar condos are available, but sellers of genuinely attractive properties do not necessarily have to slash the price.
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Versalles went from a quiet grid of local streets to a wall of new towers in five years, and the rents never followed. Where asking prices sit furthest from what places really earn and resell for.
Why haven't Puerto Vallarta condo prices crashed?
Puerto Vallarta condo prices have held up surprisingly well because excess inventory has produced slow sales before it has produced widespread distress.
The latest FlexMLS numbers show how strange this market can look at first glance. The median condo sale price for the latest month fell 8.1% to $337,850, yet the year-to-date median remained 7.8% higher at $396,240. Earlier in the year, some monthly comparisons were still showing substantial price gains even while transaction volumes fell sharply.
Longer-term owners also have room to wait. MLSVallarta estimates the average condo sale price increased from roughly $310,000 in 2015 to about $490,000 in 2025. Someone who bought years ago may have a large paper gain and little reason to accept a low offer immediately.
That combination can keep published prices surprisingly firm while liquidity gets worse underneath. In Puerto Vallarta today, the clearest pain point is how long many condos take to sell.
Which Puerto Vallarta neighborhoods have the biggest condo oversupply?
Puerto Vallarta's condo oversupply is much worse in some neighborhoods than others, so the citywide number can hide huge differences.
Recent SearchPV MLS snapshots showed Amapas with 51 active properties against 33 sales during the previous 12 months, equivalent to about 18.5 months of inventory. Lázaro Cárdenas was around 13.7 months and Lower Conchas Chinas about 12.9 months. Emiliano Zapata, including much of the Zona Romántica market, came in around 11.4 months.
Mojoneras was far more extreme, with 20 active properties against only six annual sales, giving a headline figure around 40 months. The sample there is small, so 40 months should not be treated as a stable citywide benchmark, but it shows just how illiquid a small submarket can become.
Zona Romántica deserves some nuance. Nearly 100 sales over 12 months in Emiliano Zapata still represents real demand. The problem is that buyers can compare a large number of similar one- and two-bedroom condos offering rooftop pools, gyms, walkability and short-term-rental potential. Scarcity has weakened.
Versalles has gone through a different version of the same change. The wider Francisco Villa area represented only around 2% of market sales in 2015 but more than 10% by 2025 according to MLSVallarta. The neighborhood became popular, developers followed, and owners now face much more competition than they would have several years ago.
| Recent area snapshot | Active properties | 12-month sales | Months of inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Zapata | 91 | 96 | 11.4 |
| Lower Conchas Chinas | 14 | 13 | 12.9 |
| Lázaro Cárdenas | 24 | 21 | 13.7 |
| Amapas | 51 | 33 | 18.5 |
| Mojoneras | 20 | 6 | 40.0 |
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Are new condo projects still making Puerto Vallarta's oversupply worse?
Yes, but the flow of new Puerto Vallarta condo supply now looks less aggressive than it did during the peak building wave.
MLSVallarta was tracking around 60 developments across Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit in its development map, while developers were still actively marketing presales in areas such as Versalles and Zona Romántica. Many projects launched during the boom therefore continue to feed finished units into today's market.
Presales also compete directly with existing owners. One FlexMLS-based analysis counted 520 presale condo transactions in 2025 and 613 existing-condo transactions. Presales represented almost 46% of condo sales in that dataset.
For a resale seller, that creates an awkward comparison. A buyer considering a five-year-old $400,000 condo may also see a new $400,000 presale with staged payments, new appliances and fresh amenities. The resale can win on immediate occupancy, certainty and an established rental record, but it no longer competes only with other resales.
As seen above, new listings have lately dropped sharply. That is encouraging because Puerto Vallarta eventually needs fewer units entering the market than buyers are absorbing. The backlog from previous construction cycles still has to clear.
| FlexMLS condo transactions | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Presale condos sold | 422 | 520 | +23.2% |
| Existing condos sold | 523 | 613 | +17.2% |
| Total condo sales | 945 | 1,133 | +19.9% |
| Presale share of sales | 44.7% | 45.9% | +1.2 pts |
Can Airbnb demand absorb Puerto Vallarta's extra condos?
No. Puerto Vallarta has a healthy vacation-rental market, but Airbnb demand is nowhere near strong enough to make every investor condo work.
AirDNA currently tracks roughly 6,500 active short-term rentals in its Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco dataset. Average occupancy is around 57%, with an average daily rate near $175.
The interesting number is RevPAR, which combines occupancy and nightly pricing. AirDNA puts it around $100 and down 11.1% year over year. The average daily rate is down 18.4%. Occupancy has improved, yet owners are getting guests partly by charging less.
AirDNA's reported year-over-year change in the number of active listings is unusually large and may reflect changes in coverage or classification, so we would not use that figure to claim thousands of rentals suddenly disappeared. The pricing data is more useful here.
Puerto Vallarta still attracts plenty of visitors. The harder part these days is turning a generic condo into an unusually profitable vacation rental when thousands of other owners are trying to do exactly the same thing.
| AirDNA Puerto Vallarta measure | Current level | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Active short-term rentals | ~6,500 | Dataset shows sharp decline* |
| Occupancy | 57% | +14.0% |
| Average daily rate | $175 | -18.4% |
| RevPAR | $100 | -11.1% |
| Average annual revenue | $31,400 | +62.8% |
*AirDNA's unusually large listing and revenue changes may partly reflect coverage or classification changes, so those two year-over-year comparisons should be treated cautiously.
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Are Puerto Vallarta vacation rentals having to discount more?
Yes. Puerto Vallarta vacation rentals are competing hard on price during weaker periods, especially among condos with plenty of substitutes.
PVRPV has recently advertised reductions of roughly 20% to 35% across properties in Old Town, Versalles, Conchas Chinas, Los Muertos and the Hotel Zone. Its last-minute inventory has shown selected discounts of 40% at V177 and as much as 50% at Residences by Pinnacle, alongside reductions at Madero 320 and Molino de Agua.
Those promotions should not be mistaken for annual performance numbers. Puerto Vallarta has always been seasonal, and discounts in slower weeks are normal.
What catches our attention is where the discounts are appearing. These are established buildings in strong tourist locations, not obscure condos miles from the beach. If well-known properties have to compete aggressively for certain dates, buyers should be careful with rental projections that assume high rates almost every night of the year.
Is Puerto Vallarta tourism growing fast enough to support all these condos?
No, at least not right now. Puerto Vallarta still has a huge tourism base, but recent airport traffic has moved in the wrong direction for a condo market carrying this much supply.
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico reported 3.81 million passengers through Puerto Vallarta airport during the first seven months of 2026, down from 4.36 million over the same period the previous year. That is a decline of about 12.6%.
The latest individual month was also weaker, with total passengers down 12.1% year over year. International traffic has been particularly soft, which deserves attention because US and Canadian visitors make up an important part of Puerto Vallarta's second-home and vacation-rental buyer base.
Seven months does not prove a permanent tourism decline. Still, the current numbers give us no reason to assume visitor growth will quickly rescue an oversupplied condo market.
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Didn't Puerto Vallarta's huge price boom justify building all these condos?
It justified developers wanting to build them, but the Puerto Vallarta price boom did not guarantee that buyers would absorb every project delivered afterward.
MLSVallarta estimates that the average condo price climbed from around $310,000 in 2015 to roughly $490,000 in 2025, a gain close to 60%. Some submarkets appreciated much faster. Central North prices rose roughly 150% over the decade, while Central South and the Hotel Zone roughly doubled.
Developers react to exactly those kinds of numbers. Higher selling prices make land acquisition and construction more attractive, while strong presales make financing easier.
The problem is timing. Real-estate development responds slowly. A shortage can produce several years of profitable construction, and those projects may arrive after the original shortage has already disappeared. Puerto Vallarta now appears to be living through that delayed response.
Could local population growth eventually absorb Puerto Vallarta's extra condos?
Only partly. Puerto Vallarta's population can support more housing over time, but much of the current condo stock was never priced for the typical local household.
A large part of the new-build market targets foreign retirees, second-home owners, Mexican buyers from larger cities and short-term-rental investors. A $400,000 ocean-view one-bedroom presale and a locally needed primary residence may both be called "housing," but they serve very different buyers.
That is why population growth alone cannot solve the imbalance quickly. Puerto Vallarta needs enough buyers who want the specific condos developers have built, at the prices those developers and owners are asking.
Local growth still helps over a longer period, especially as neighborhoods mature and prices adjust. It simply cannot be treated as automatic demand for thousands of tourism-oriented units.
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Will Puerto Vallarta's condo oversupply fix itself?
Probably, but Puerto Vallarta still needs time for condo supply and sales to move back into balance.
The newest data gives us the first genuinely encouraging evidence. Active condo inventory is down 15.4% year over year, and new listings have dropped 59%. Owners and developers are putting much less fresh product onto the market.
Sales are also down, which slows the cleanup. Year-to-date condo closings are currently about 25% below the previous year's level, while average days on market remain close to nine months.
A healthier rebalancing needs both lines moving the right way: fewer condos entering the market while buyers steadily absorb the existing stock. We have started to see the first half of that equation. The second half is not there yet.
Which Puerto Vallarta condos are most at risk now?
Generic Puerto Vallarta condos are the most exposed today, especially units priced like premium properties without having anything that makes buyers choose them first.
Building-level MLS data shows how brutal that can become. SearchPV recently showed Avalon in Amapas with four active condos and three sales over the previous year, equivalent to about 16 months of inventory. Villas Tizoc had six active listings and only one annual sale. The Alexandra showed eight active units and no recorded sale during the same period.
Those samples are small, so the exact ratios can jump quickly after one transaction. The underlying lesson is still useful: liquidity can disappear inside a particular building even while condos are selling elsewhere in the city.
Meanwhile, individual units with strong pricing can move much faster. A Loma Linda condo in Amapas recently sold in 59 days at about 97% of asking. An Indah condo in Lower Conchas Chinas closed at $1.77 million after 159 days.
Today, buyers can punish an ordinary layout, weak view, high HOA fee, inflated asking price or mediocre rental record much more easily because another condo is usually available nearby.
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Who has the advantage in Puerto Vallarta's condo market today?
Puerto Vallarta condo buyers have more leverage than they did during the boom, although sellers of genuinely scarce properties can still hold their price.
Buyers can now compare existing condos with presales, several buildings within the same neighborhood and multiple units inside the same development. Long marketing periods also make it easier to negotiate instead of rushing into whatever is available.
The presale premium is particularly worth questioning. A FlexMLS-based analysis put average presale pricing around $4,005 per square meter in 2025, roughly 8.8% above established resale inventory. A buyer paying that premium should be getting something tangible for it: better construction, a superior location, useful payment terms or amenities that competitors cannot easily match.
For sellers, this means the old strategy of pricing from the most optimistic listing in the building is much harder to defend. Buyers can see the alternatives.
So, are there too many condos in Puerto Vallarta now?
Yes. Puerto Vallarta still has too many condos relative to current buyer absorption, but the latest evidence suggests the excess has started to shrink.
The strongest case comes from the full pattern rather than any single number. Condo inventory expanded several times faster than annual transactions after 2020. Selling times stretched into many months. Buyers gained thousands of resale, presale and vacation-rental alternatives. Some neighborhoods now carry more than a year of inventory, while individual buildings can be much slower.
At the same time, the story has changed a little. Active condo inventory has lately fallen 15.4% year over year to 2,801 units, and new listings have dropped sharply. Prices have also avoided a broad collapse. Puerto Vallarta is already doing some of the rebalancing an oversupplied market needs.
The weakness is that demand has not recovered alongside it. Year-to-date condo sales are down roughly 25%, pending sales recently fell more than 30%, and average marketing time remains close to nine months. Those are difficult numbers to square with the idea that condo supply has become scarce again.
Puerto Vallarta built too many interchangeable condos for the number of buyers currently chasing them.
Prime oceanfront units, exceptional views, unusually good layouts and realistically priced condos can still find buyers. The difficult part of the market is the large middle: modern investor-oriented condos that look good but have dozens of convincing substitutes.
For now, Puerto Vallarta remains an oversupplied condo market that is starting to heal. Buyers still have the advantage in many buildings, and the city needs a longer stretch of shrinking inventory and stronger sales before we can say the excess has genuinely disappeared.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Puerto Vallarta currently has more condos than buyers can comfortably absorb. We break the question into supply, sales absorption, liquidity, pricing, neighborhood and building-level conditions, new development, vacation-rental economics and tourism demand rather than relying on visible construction or a single citywide statistic.
We prioritize the measures that most directly answer each part of the question. Inventory is read alongside transactions, completed sales are used to judge buyer leverage, days on market are used to assess liquidity, and RevPAR and nightly pricing are used to assess short-term-rental economics. Airport traffic is treated as supporting evidence for the tourism environment behind second-home and vacation-rental demand.
Different datasets are kept separate because they cover different slices of the market. Teseo Data Lab provides the longer Puerto Vallarta–Riviera Nayarit inventory and transaction series; Coldwell Banker La Costa's FlexMLS reviews provide the freshest active inventory, sales, pending-sales and days-on-market readings; MLSVallarta provides longer-term pricing and development context; SearchPV provides neighborhood, building and closed-sale examples; AirDNA covers short-term rentals; PVRPV shows current rental promotions; and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico provides the airport traffic data.
Where we calculate a rough inventory-to-annual-sales ratio, we use it only to make the change in market balance easier to see. It is not presented as an official MLS months-of-inventory measure. We also treat small neighborhood and building samples carefully because one or two transactions can move those ratios sharply.
The conclusion does not depend on one datapoint. It comes from the overlap between a much larger condo stock, slower absorption, long marketing periods, buyer discounts, heavy presale competition and softer rental and tourism conditions, while also giving full weight to the newer evidence that active inventory and new listings have started to fall.
Key sources used for this analysis include: Teseo Data Lab's Puerto Vallarta–Riviera Nayarit real-estate outlook, AMPI Riviera Nayarit's 2026 oversupply analysis, Coldwell Banker La Costa's August 2026 FlexMLS market pulse, Coldwell Banker La Costa's July 2026 market pulse, MLSVallarta's 2015–2025 market review, MLSVallarta's development-map review, SearchPV's Agave Vallarta closed sale, SearchPV's Serdan closed sale, SearchPV's Indah closed sale, SearchPV's Loma Linda closed sale, SearchPV's Mojoneras market analytics, SearchPV's Lázaro Cárdenas market analytics, SearchPV's Avalon market analytics, SearchPV's Villas Tizoc market analytics, AirDNA's Puerto Vallarta short-term-rental overview, PVRPV's current rental promotions, and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico's July 2026 passenger report.
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