What are the price trends and forecasts in Mérida right now? (January 2026)

In this blog post, we break down the current housing prices in Mérida and where they could be heading next.

We also look at the main factors shaping the market, from interest rates to infrastructure projects like the Tren Maya.

We constantly update this article to keep our data fresh and reliable, so you always get the most accurate picture of Mérida's real estate market.

And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Mérida.

Who is the author of this content?

THE LATINVESTOR

A team specialized in real estate investing in LATAM countries

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Mérida. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

What are the current property price trends in Mérida as of 2026?

What is the average house price in Mérida as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the average house price in Mérida is around 5.2 million MXN, which works out to roughly 290,000 USD or 248,000 EUR at current exchange rates.

To give you more granularity, the average price per square meter for residential properties in Mérida sits between 42,000 and 45,000 MXN, or about 2,350 to 2,500 USD and 2,000 to 2,150 EUR per square meter.

If you look at where most buyers actually shop, roughly 80% of property purchases in Mérida fall within a price range of 3 million to 8 million MXN, which translates to about 165,000 to 445,000 USD or 143,000 to 380,000 EUR.

How much have property prices increased in Mérida over the past 12 months?

Property prices in Mérida increased by approximately 9% in nominal terms over the past 12 months, which is higher than Mexico's national average.

Depending on the property type and neighborhood, the actual price increase in Mérida ranged from about 6% for established areas to as high as 15% in fast-growing northern corridors like Temozón Norte and Conkal.

The single biggest factor behind this price growth is sustained in-migration, with Mérida welcoming over 9,000 new households annually and a growing expat community that keeps demand strong while supply struggles to catch up.

Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Mérida as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Mérida are Temozón Norte, Cholul, and Conkal, all located in the city's high-demand northern expansion corridor.

Temozón Norte is seeing annual price growth of 15 to 20%, while Cholul and Conkal are both appreciating at around 12 to 15% per year due to their newer housing stock and improving infrastructure.

The main demand driver behind these neighborhoods is their proximity to modern amenities like hospitals, international schools, and shopping centers, combined with easy access to the Periférico ring road that connects them to the rest of the city.

By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Mérida.

We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Mexico. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.

Which property types are increasing faster in value in Mérida as of 2026?

As of early 2026, townhouses in private developments (called "privadas") are appreciating fastest in Mérida, followed by 2 to 3 bedroom condos in the north corridors, then single-family houses, and finally large luxury villas which move in thinner volumes.

Townhouses in privadas are seeing annual appreciation of roughly 10 to 12% in Mérida, making them the top-performing property type in the current market.

The main reason townhouses are outperforming is that they offer the best combination of security, shared amenities, and an accessible price point that works for both local families and international buyers using mortgage financing.

Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:

• How much do properties cost in Mérida?
• How much should you pay for a house in Mérida?
• How much should you pay for lands in Mérida?

What is driving property prices up or down in Mérida as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the three main factors driving property prices in Mérida are sustained in-migration from other Mexican states and abroad, major infrastructure investments like the Tren Maya and Port of Progreso expansion, and limited ready-to-move-in supply in the most desirable northern neighborhoods.

The single strongest upward pressure on Mérida property prices comes from population growth, as the metropolitan area adds over 9,000 new households annually while construction timelines and permitting delays keep supply from catching up fast enough.

If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Mérida here.

What is the property price forecast for Mérida in 2026?

How much are property prices expected to increase in Mérida in 2026?

As of early 2026, property prices in Mérida are expected to increase by approximately 7% over the course of the year, based on current market fundamentals.

The range of forecasts from different analysts spans from a conservative 6% to a more optimistic 10%, depending on how quickly interest rates fall and whether infrastructure projects stay on schedule.

The main assumption underlying most forecasts is that Banco de México will continue easing interest rates, which should gradually improve mortgage affordability and bring more buyers into the market without flooding it with speculative demand.

We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Mérida.

Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Mérida in 2026?

As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Mérida are Cholul, Conkal, Dzityá, Temozón Norte, and Santa Gertrudis Copó, all clustered in the north and northeast development corridors.

These neighborhoods are projected to grow between 10% and 15% in 2026, outpacing the city-wide average thanks to their active development pipelines and improving connectivity.

The primary catalyst driving growth in these areas is their proximity to new infrastructure, including better road links to the Periférico and spillover benefits from the Tren Maya connectivity hub.

One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Kanasín on Mérida's east side, where selective pockets near improved transport links are attracting developers and budget-conscious buyers.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Mérida.

What property types will appreciate the most in Mérida in 2026?

As of early 2026, mid-market townhouses in private developments (privadas) are expected to appreciate the most in Mérida, followed closely by practical 2 to 3 bedroom condos in the north corridors.

Townhouses are projected to appreciate around 10 to 12% in Mérida during 2026, making them the top-performing property type for the year.

The main demand trend driving this appreciation is the strong preference among both local families and international buyers for properties that combine security, shared amenities, and price points that work with mortgage financing.

Large luxury villas are expected to underperform relative to other property types in Mérida because they trade in thinner volumes and can sit on the market longer when similar inventory hits at the same time.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Mexico versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.

How will interest rates affect property prices in Mérida in 2026?

As of early 2026, falling interest rates are expected to have a moderately positive effect on Mérida property prices by gradually improving mortgage affordability and bringing more qualified buyers into the market.

Banco de México's policy rate has been cut several times through 2025, though mortgage rates remain relatively high in late 2025 at around 10 to 12% for most borrowers, which means rate relief is coming but not dramatically fast.

A 1% drop in mortgage rates typically allows buyers in Mérida to afford roughly 8 to 10% more home for the same monthly payment, which tends to push prices up in the most liquid mid-market segments as more people qualify to buy.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Mexico.

What are the biggest risks for property prices in Mérida in 2026?

As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Mérida are a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in Mexico, interest rates staying higher for longer than buyers expect, and potential overbuilding in specific segments like mid-tier condos in the north corridors.

The risk with the highest probability of materializing in Mérida is oversupply in certain condo-heavy corridors, where multiple developers are launching similar products at the same time, which could lead to discounting and longer selling times in those specific pockets.

We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Mérida.

Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Mérida in 2026?

As of early 2026, it is generally a good time to buy a rental property in Mérida if you focus on the "liquid middle" of the market and underwrite your investment conservatively with gross rental yields of 5 to 7%.

The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that interest rates are falling, population growth remains strong at over 9,000 new households per year, and Mérida's rental demand from expats and domestic migrants shows no signs of slowing down.

The strongest argument for waiting is that some corridors may see short-term oversupply of new condos, and mortgage rates are still high enough to limit how much further prices can run without affordability becoming a serious constraint.

If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Mérida.

You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Mérida.

Where will property prices be in 5 years in Mérida?

What is the 5-year property price forecast for Mérida as of 2026?

As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Mérida over the next 5 years is expected to be around 45% in nominal terms, meaning a property worth 5 million MXN today could be worth approximately 7.25 million MXN by 2031.

The range of 5-year forecasts spans from a conservative 35% (if growth moderates significantly) to an optimistic 55% (if demand and infrastructure catalysts exceed expectations).

This works out to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 6 to 9% per year in Mérida over the 2026 to 2031 period.

The key assumption most forecasters rely on is that Mérida will avoid a deep recession, interest rates will normalize gradually, and the city will continue attracting residents and investment at its current pace.

Which areas in Mérida will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?

The three areas in Mérida expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are Cholul, Conkal, and Dzityá, which are all positioned in the "next ring" of northern expansion where prices still have runway to catch up to more established corridors.

These top-performing areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative growth of 55 to 70%, outpacing the city-wide average because they benefit most from improving infrastructure and continued land scarcity in prime zones.

This differs from the shorter-term forecast because the 5-year horizon gives more weight to infrastructure completion (like full Tren Maya connectivity) rather than just current sales momentum.

Kanasín and select pockets along Mérida's eastern corridor represent currently undervalued areas with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years, especially if the planned eastward infrastructure improvements materialize.

What property type will give the best return in Mérida over 5 years as of 2026?

As of early 2026, mid-market townhouses in private developments (privadas) are expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Mérida, combining solid appreciation with steady rental income.

The projected 5-year total return for this property type in Mérida is roughly 75 to 90%, factoring in approximately 45 to 55% price appreciation plus cumulative rental income of 25 to 35% of the initial investment.

The main structural trend favoring townhouses is Mérida's growing middle class and expat community who prioritize security, shared amenities, and price points that work with local financing options.

For investors seeking the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years in Mérida, practical 2 to 3 bedroom condos in established north corridors like Montebello or Altabrisa offer slightly lower upside but more liquidity and more predictable tenant demand.

How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Mérida over 5 years?

The three major infrastructure projects expected to impact property prices in Mérida over the next 5 years are the Tren Maya rail connectivity hub, the Port of Progreso expansion, and ongoing upgrades to the Periférico ring road.

Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Mérida typically command a price premium of 15 to 25%, and early market evidence from similar projects in Cancún suggests premiums can reach much higher over time as connectivity fully materializes.

The neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments in Mérida are Temozón Norte, Cholul, Conkal, and the north-northeast corridors that connect to improved road and rail links toward the coast.

How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Mérida in 5 years?

Mérida's metropolitan population is projected to grow at around 3.3% annually, adding over 9,000 new households each year, and this sustained growth will create persistent upward pressure on property values through 2031.

The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Mérida property demand is the influx of professionals and families aged 30 to 50 relocating from Mexico City and other large urban centers in search of better quality of life and lower costs.

Migration patterns, including both domestic relocation and international expats (roughly 10,000 Americans and Canadians now call Mérida home), are expected to keep demand elevated across all segments, especially for secure, amenity-rich properties in the north corridors.

Mid-market townhouses and 2 to 3 bedroom condos in the north and northeast corridors will benefit most from these demographic trends in Mérida, as they match what relocating families and lifestyle-focused expats actually want to buy.

We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Mexico compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.

What is the 10 year property price outlook in Mérida?

What is the 10-year property price prediction for Mérida as of 2026?

As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Mérida over the next 10 years is expected to be around 110% in nominal terms, meaning prices could roughly double (or slightly more) by 2036.

The range of 10-year forecasts spans from a conservative 90% (if growth moderates and macro conditions weaken) to an optimistic 140% (if Mérida captures outsized migration and infrastructure benefits).

This works out to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 7 to 9% per year in Mérida over the 2026 to 2036 period.

The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year predictions for Mérida is whether Mexico's overall economy stays stable and whether the city can continue attracting residents at its current pace without running into affordability limits.

What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Mérida?

The three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Mérida over the next decade are Mexico's overall income and job growth trajectory, the cost and availability of mortgage financing, and continued population growth driven by domestic and international migration.

The single long-term economic factor with the most positive impact on Mérida property values will be sustained in-migration, as the city's reputation for safety, quality of life, and lower costs continues to attract residents from Mexico City, the United States, and Canada.

The single long-term economic factor posing the greatest structural risk to Mérida property values is a potential affordability ceiling, where local incomes simply cannot keep pace with rising prices and demand eventually softens outside the expat and investor segments.

You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Mérida.

Is buying a property in Mérida a good long-term investment then?

As of early 2026, yes, buying a property in Mérida is generally a good long-term investment if you focus on liquidity and fundamentals rather than chasing hype in overpriced pockets of the market.

The strongest argument in favor of Mérida as a long-term investment is the combination of population growth (9,000+ new households per year), infrastructure investment (Tren Maya, Progreso port), and a growing international reputation that creates multiple demand pillars rather than reliance on a single buyer type.

For the safest long-term bets in Mérida, focus on north and northeast corridor neighborhoods like Temozón Norte, Cholul, Conkal, Dzityá, Montebello, Montes de Amé, Altabrisa, and Santa Gertrudis Copó, and buy properties that a broad set of local renters and buyers can afford.

The key caution is to underwrite with rate-cycle realism: do not assume permanently low mortgage rates, and make sure your investment works even if price growth moderates to the lower end of the forecast range.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Mérida, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can ... and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.

Source	Why it's authoritative	How we used it
Banco de México (Monetary Policy)	Mexico's central bank sets the reference rate for all borrowing costs.	We used it to anchor the interest rate storyline. We then translated rate movements into mortgage affordability impacts for Mérida buyers.
Banco de México (SIE Database)	Official time-series database for Mexican interest rate statistics.	We used it to pin down actual mortgage rate ranges in late 2025. We then estimated affordability pressure and relief as rates change.
Banco de México (Financial Stability Report)	Banxico's flagship risk monitor for the Mexican financial system.	We used it to keep our forecasts realistic on credit conditions. We applied it as a check against over-optimistic housing scenarios.
INEGI (CPI/INPC Bulletin)	Mexico's official statistics office provides the country's inflation benchmark.	We used inflation data to judge whether prices are rising in real terms. We also explained why nominal prices can stay high even when demand cools.
Banorte (INBAPREVI Indicator)	Major Mexican bank with a documented, repeatable price index methodology.	We used it to triangulate recent momentum for Yucatán and Mérida. We cross-checked its growth rates against national SHF trends.
Inmuebles24 (Mérida Index)	Large national listings platform publishing a consistent local price index.	We used it to anchor Mérida-specific price per square meter figures. We then updated estimates to January 2026 using growth rates from other sources.
Inmobiliare	Established real estate trade outlet that clearly attributes figures to named datasets.	We used it specifically for Yucatán growth figures attributed to INBAPREVI. We applied these conservatively to Mérida as the state's main market.
IMF (World Economic Outlook)	Top-tier international institution for macro forecasts used by governments globally.	We used it to set a credible macro backdrop for 2026 and beyond. We mapped IMF projections to Mexico demand drivers like jobs and remittances.
Reuters	High-reliability wire service reporting official IMF positions.	We used it to sanity-check 2026 growth expectations for Mexico. We translated those into base case versus downside scenarios for Mérida housing demand.
Tren Maya (Official Site)	Official government project site for what's operating and connected.	We used it to support the infrastructure narrative around regional connectivity. We linked it to demand spillovers into Mérida's north and east growth corridors.
Proyectos México (Port of Progreso)	Government investment platform with structured project descriptions.	We used it to support the logistics, jobs, and income growth narrative near Mérida. We identified which submarkets benefit from coastal connectivity improvements.
CONAPO (Population Projections)	Mexico's official demographic projection body used by planners and agencies.	We used it to ground the "more people means more housing demand" logic. We paired it with Mérida's known in-migration patterns to explain pricing behavior.
INEGI (Census 2020)	Official census source for population and housing structure baselines.	We used it as the starting point for household formation and housing stock context. We then layered 2025-2026 drivers on top for our forecasts.
The Yucatan Times	Regional English-language news outlet covering Mérida real estate developments.	We used it to validate local market trends and expat community estimates. We cross-referenced its reporting with official data sources.
Yucatán Magazine	Local publication covering Yucatán real estate with detailed market analysis.	We used it to understand neighborhood-level dynamics and development pipelines. We validated infrastructure impact estimates against their local reporting.
El País (Mexico)	Major Spanish-language newspaper reporting official SHF housing price data.	We used it to benchmark national housing price growth figures. We compared Mérida's performance against the national average.