Is Los Cabos real estate cooling down?

How much has the Los Cabos market slowed in 2026?

Clearly. Fewer properties are selling across Los Cabos than a year ago, and the gap has widened after a weak third quarter.

Christie's Real Estate Cabo counted 1,260 MLS sales across its Baja California Sur coverage from January to September 2026, 11.4% fewer than a year earlier. Dollar volume fell 13.5%, from about $1.29 billion to $1.12 billion.

The average sale barely moved, down 2.4% to $885,622. So the slowdown is mostly about fewer buyers, not collapsing prices.

Earlier in the year it looked worse on volume: Christie's first-half count showed 797 sales, down 17.6%, and dollar volume down 25.2%. A busy second quarter at the top end narrowed the gap, but didn't close it.

Measure	Latest comparison	Change	What it tells us
MLS sales (1,260)	Jan–Sep 2026 vs 2025	-11.4%	Fewer properties are closing
MLS volume ($1.12B)	Jan–Sep 2026 vs 2025	-13.5%	Less money changing hands
Average sale ($885,622)	Jan–Sep 2026 vs 2025	-2.4%	Prices roughly stable
H1 MLS sales (797)	H1 2026 vs H1 2025	-17.6%	The first half was weaker still
Q3 residential sales (178)	Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026	-36%	Weakest quarter since 2020

Did the spring rebound in Los Cabos hold up?

No. Q2 2026 looked like a recovery, but Q3 was the weakest quarter for Los Cabos since 2020, according to Cabo Real Estate Services.

The brokerage counted 279 residential sales worth $409.8 million in Q2. In Q3, that fell to 178 sales worth $133.2 million: 36% fewer sales and 68% less money in three months.

Worse, 286 listings expired without selling in Q3, more than the number of actual sales. Some owners are pulling their property rather than cutting again.

One better sign for sellers: the properties that did sell closed nearer their original asking price, at 93.2% in Q3 against 89.9% in Q2. Buyers are paying for the right property, they're just buying fewer of them.

What would change the picture: several quarters of rising sales with falling inventory. Until then, read any single strong quarter with caution.

Why do Los Cabos prices still look high if the market is slowing?

Because a handful of ultra-expensive sales can completely distort the average.

In Q2 2026, eight residential sales above $10 million brought in $141.6 million, about a third of the quarter's $409.8 million, according to Cabo Real Estate Services. That pushed the average sale to about $1.47 million.

In Q3 there wasn't a single sale above $10 million. The average sale fell 49.1% to $748,306 in three months. Prices didn't halve; a few trophy homes simply didn't trade.

The condo median, which those deals barely touch, moved much less: $346,356 in Q3, down 8.9% from Q2. That's the better number for anyone buying an ordinary condo.

So when you read a headline about "average Cabo prices," check whether it's really about a few $15 million villas in Palmilla, Chileno Bay or Querencia.

Los Cabos residential activity	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Why it matters
Properties sold	279	178	Small transaction base
Total dollar volume	$409.8M	$133.2M	Swings with luxury deals
Sales above $10M	8	0	The top end is lumpy
Value of $10M+ sales	$141.6M	$0	About a third of Q2 volume
Average sale price	~$1.47M	$748K	Heavily affected by luxury mix
Condo median price	~$380K	$346K	Better reflection of the middle

Are fewer homes and condos actually selling in Los Cabos?

Yes. Homes, condos and land are all selling less than a year ago, so the slowdown reaches beyond one property type.

Christie's January to September data counted 443 home sales, down 6.5%. Condo sales fell 14.2% to 494, and land sales fell 13.2% to 323.

The geographic spread matters just as much. Cabo San Lucas and its Corridor recorded 375 sales, down 18.1%. San José del Cabo and its Corridor fell 12.3%, the Pacific side 18.5% and the East Cape 6.5%.

When every zone in the same dataset records fewer sales, it's hard to blame the slowdown on one development or one type of buyer.

Area	Jan–Sep 2026 sales	Change in transactions	Change in dollar volume
Cabo San Lucas + Corridor	375	-18.1%	-2.2%
San José del Cabo + Corridor	327	-12.3%	-18.3%
Pacific	194	-18.5%	-25.4%
East Cape	100	-6.5%	-16.8%

Does Los Cabos have too many properties for sale now?

Yes. Los Cabos has about two years of resale supply at the current selling pace.

Cabo Real Estate Services counted 1,945 active houses and condos at the end of Q3 2026, with a combined asking value of $2.42 billion. That's down from 2,134 at the end of Q2 and from a record 2,320 in Q1.

But sales fell even faster, so months of inventory rose to about 23: 22 for houses and 24 for condos. And part of the drop in listings came from expirations, not buyers. Many of those owners will relist.

Christie's numbers land in the same place: 17.3 months for homes under $1 million, 26.3 months above, and 23.5 months for condos under $1 million. Only about 37 properties sell for every 100 new listings, according to Cabo Real Estate Services.

A second-home market can carry more stock than a city where people need a place to live. Still, when a buyer can compare ten similar units rather than fight over two, pricing mistakes are hard to hide.

Are Los Cabos properties taking much longer to sell?

Yes. Most properties sit for five months or more, and expensive condos far longer.

Cabo Real Estate Services measured an average of 164 days on market in Q3 2026: 173 days for houses (151 in Q2) and 158 for condos (195 in Q2).

Christie's January to September figures are longer: about 250 days for homes and condos under $1 million, 289 days for homes above $1 million and 494 days for condos above $1 million.

The two brokerages count differently, so don't treat either figure as exact. The direction is clear: buyers have time, and they're perfectly willing to ignore the wrong unit for a year or more.

Are Los Cabos sellers finally accepting lower offers?

Yes. Sellers are cutting more often, and cuts work less well than they used to.

Cabo Real Estate Services counted 581 price reductions in 2023, 1,193 in 2024 and 1,640 in 2025. In 2026 it had already recorded 1,049 by the end of June and 1,295 by the end of September, on completed houses and condos.

Only 19% of those reductions led to a sale, against 34% in 2025. A small cut on an overpriced listing isn't enough anymore.

Closing gaps are real but not dramatic. Los Cabos houses sold at 92.5% of their original asking price in Q3 and condos at 93.6%. In Q2, the gap was wider: 88.3% for houses and 91.1% for condos.

Pricing pressure	Earlier reading	Latest reading	Change
Annual price reductions	1,193 in 2024	1,640 in 2025	+37%
2026 reductions	1,049 through June	1,295 through September	Already 79% of 2025 total
Reductions that led to a sale	34% in 2025	19% in 2026	Cuts work less often
House sale / original list	88.3% (Q2)	92.5% (Q3)	Gap narrowed
Condo sale / original list	91.1% (Q2)	93.6% (Q3)	Gap narrowed

Are Los Cabos property prices actually falling?

For ordinary property, a little. For expensive condos, no. It depends on what you're buying.

Christie's January to September figures put the average home sale at about $1.4 million, down 12.1%, while the average condo rose 12.9% to about $699,000.

The price bands explain that. Condos under $1 million averaged about $399,000, down 5.1%, on 15.9% fewer sales. Condos above $1 million averaged about $2.68 million, up 24.2%, with sales almost unchanged. Homes under $1 million averaged about $403,000, down just 0.5%.

So the mix shifted toward the top while ordinary condos softened. Asking prices sit above all this: TuLugar's October 2026 listing data puts the median condo asking price across Los Cabos at $371,000, above the Q3 median sale of $346,356.

Over the longer run, prices climbed a lot. The official SHF index, which tracks mortgage-financed homes, put Los Cabos up about 96% in the five years to late 2025. That pace isn't happening now.

Are two-bedroom condos the weakest part of Los Cabos real estate?

Yes. Two-bedroom condos, Cabo's most common investment product, are the most crowded part of the market.

Cabo Real Estate Services counted 646 two-bedroom condos for sale at the end of Q3 2026, about 22 months of supply. Only 67 sold in the quarter, against 175 new listings.

Demand hasn't vanished. The 276 two-bedroom sales so far in 2026 already equal 86% of the 2025 total. Buyers are there, they just have plenty of choice.

Many pre-construction condos bought during the 2021–2022 boom are now finished, and some original buyers are reselling just as developers keep selling new units. A buyer can compare an older resale, a nearly new resale and a developer unit in the same price range. That's a market where sellers compete with each other.

Two-bedroom condo market (Q3 2026)	Latest figure	What we see
Active units	646	Large pool of competing inventory
New listings in quarter	175	More supply keeps arriving
Sales in quarter	67	Absorption remains weak
Sales/new-listing ratio	38%	New listings far outpace sales
Months of inventory	22	Close to two years at current pace
Sales so far in 2026	276	86% of the 2025 total

Is Los Cabos luxury real estate slowing too?

Partly. Luxury condos are doing well, luxury homes much less so, and the very top is lumpy.

Q2 2026 showed what the top can do: eight residential sales above $10 million, worth $141.6 million. Q3 had none, and the $2 million to $5 million band fell from 26 sales to 7.

Over nine months, Christie's counted 124 home sales above $1 million, down 19.0%, with 26.3 months of supply. Condos above $1 million held their sales and rose 24.2% in average price. Land above $1 million is the weakest, with about 90 months of supply.

The MLS also misses a large share of the top end. Christie's estimates more than $400 million of 2026 developer, presale and branded-residence sales that never reach the MLS, in places like Chileno Bay, The Cove Club, Cabo Real and Maravilla. That's a broker's estimate, not an audited figure.

The useful distinction is scarcity. A rare oceanfront home in Palmilla or Chileno Bay still attracts wealthy buyers; an expensive but replaceable listing can wait most of a year.

Is Cabo San Lucas cooling faster than San José del Cabo?

In number of sales, yes. In dollars, no: San José del Cabo lost more money volume.

Christie's recorded 375 sales in Cabo San Lucas and its Corridor from January to September 2026, down 18.1%, but dollar volume only slipped 2.2% to $305.4 million because fewer, bigger deals closed.

San José del Cabo and its Corridor recorded 327 sales, down 12.3%, while dollar volume fell 18.3% to $512.1 million.

Both sides have cooled. And each zone mixes very different products: a downtown Cabo condo, a Pedregal villa and a new Corridor branded residence are not the same market. As the boom fades, those local differences matter again.

Is weaker tourism starting to hurt Los Cabos real estate?

Possibly. Tourism is still big in Los Cabos, but international air traffic is falling, and international visitors are the ones who become buyers.

The Los Cabos Tourism Board says the destination received close to 3.8 million visitors in 2025. Hotel occupancy averaged around 70%, the average daily rate was close to $440, and almost 80% of its more than 22,000 hotel rooms are five-star.

2026 is softer. Los Cabos airport handled 5.35 million passengers from January to September, 5.6% fewer than a year earlier. International passengers fell 8.4%, and 14.7% in September alone.

Many US and Canadian owners first discover Cabo as tourists. Fewer international arrivals won't break the market, but they won't help clear two years of resale supply either.

Los Cabos tourism measure	Latest figure	Change / context
Visitors in 2025	~3.8M	Large tourism base
Hotel occupancy (2025)	~70%	Solid resort usage
Average daily rate (2025)	~$440	Premium destination pricing
Jan–Sep 2026 airport passengers	5.35M	-5.6% YoY
Jan–Sep 2026 international passengers	3.21M	-8.4% YoY
September 2026 international passengers	—	-14.7% YoY

Is Cabo's water shortage making the slowdown worse?

It adds a real risk, both for daily life in the property you buy and for which new projects get built.

On September 1, 2026, a ruptured seawater intake shut down Cabo San Lucas' first desalination plant. Later that month, the water utility put neighborhoods such as Las Palmas, Lomas del Valle and Los Cangrejos II on an emergency rotation, with trucks filling the gaps. CONAGUA puts the local aquifer's deficit at about 24 million cubic meters a year.

The fix is slow. A second desalination plant, about MXN 1.8 billion (around $96.8 million) of investment, was reported 73% complete, but in June 2026 the local business council said paperwork was holding up construction. On July 17, 2026, the state governor also said Baja California Sur may refuse new development permits in Los Cabos unless developers prove they have enough water. It's a proposal, not a law.

What to do: ask the seller or HOA how many days a week water arrives, how big the cistern is, and what the building spent on water trucks last year. For a presale, get the developer's water feasibility letter from OOMSAPAS before paying a deposit, with a refund clause if permits or connections slip.

Is all the new construction making the Los Cabos slowdown worse?

For condos, yes. New supply makes competition tougher just as resale demand has cooled.

The two-bedroom segment shows it best: 646 active units and about 22 months of supply, with recently finished pre-construction units feeding the resale market while developers keep selling.

Yet hotel groups are still betting on Los Cabos. Amanvari has opened on the East Cape, Grand Hyatt at Oleada is in the pipeline, and the Los Cabos Tourism Board points to St. Regis, Soho House and more branded residences in the next wave.

That combination widens the gap. More construction weakens prices for ordinary, interchangeable inventory while giving wealthy buyers new reasons to come. A fifteen-year-old condo that once felt luxurious can look ordinary next to a new branded residence.

Has Los Cabos already become a buyer's market?

For most resale property, yes. Buyers have more time, more choice and more negotiating power than during the pandemic-era rush.

The evidence lines up: about 23 months of inventory, 37 sales for every 100 new listings, 22 months of supply in two-bedroom condos, selling times around 250 days under $1 million, and 1,295 price reductions so far in 2026.

Christie's numbers make some segments look even heavier: 26.3 months for homes above $1 million, about 40 months for land under $1 million and about 90 months for land above $1 million.

That doesn't mean every offer should be a lowball. A genuinely rare oceanfront property can still have several interested buyers. For a condo or house with close substitutes nearby, the buyer has leverage that simply didn't exist a few years ago.

How much below asking should you offer in Los Cabos right now?

On an ordinary condo or house, opening around 5% to 8% below asking is reasonable, and more on listings that have sat for a long time.

Recent sales give the range. Los Cabos residential sales closed at 93.2% of original asking in Q3 2026. Christie's January to September ratios were 95.9% for condos under $1 million, 94.9% for homes under $1 million and 92.5% for homes above $1 million. On a $500,000 condo, 93.2% would mean about $466,000.

Check the listing history first. A property listed for 250 days or more, or already cut once, is a very different negotiation from a fresh listing. With only 19% of price cuts leading to a sale in 2026, many owners know their price is wrong.

Ask your agent for MLS sold comparables from the last six months, ideally in the same building, and compare price per square meter of air-conditioned space, not asking prices. Listings ask a median of about $3,071 per square meter for condos across Los Cabos; sold prices are usually lower.

What would make the Los Cabos slowdown genuinely serious?

A falling median price across homes and condos, together with rising inventory and fewer foreign visitors. That's not what the data shows yet.

For now, several things stop us from calling this a downturn: active listings came down from 2,320 in Q1 to 1,945 in Q3, sale-to-list ratios improved in Q3, the condo median only slipped 8.9% in the weakest quarter since 2020, and hotel groups keep investing.

The things to watch: sale-to-list ratios sliding into the 80s again, listings rising back above the Q1 record while sales keep falling, several quarters of lower condo medians, a deeper drop in international arrivals, or another serious water outage.

The luxury tier also matters, because it hides some of the weakness in dollar volume. If eight-figure sales dry up for several quarters while ordinary inventory stays high, the headline numbers could deteriorate quickly.

So, is Los Cabos real estate cooling down?

Yes. Los Cabos real estate has clearly cooled, and buyer behavior has changed.

The evidence is broad: MLS sales down 11.4% in the first nine months of 2026, every zone selling less, the weakest quarter since 2020, about 23 months of inventory, long selling times and price cuts that work less often.

At the same time, this isn't a crash. Sellers under $1 million still close at about 95% of asking, the condo median only slipped 8.9% in Q3, condos above $1 million keep rising, and developers keep building.

Our take: the broad Los Cabos resale market is a buyer's market, weakest for condos and other property with plenty of substitutes. The best ultra-luxury and oceanfront property lives in a different cycle. The boom-era idea that any well-located Cabo property could be listed high and still find a buyer is over: price, property type, exact community and water supply matter again.