Buying real estate in Cabo San Lucas?

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Is now a good time to buy in Cabo?

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SUMMARY

Yes. Now is a good time to buy in Cabo, selectively. Buyers have substantially more leverage than during the boom, especially in mainstream condos, but the best opportunities are concentrated in properties where supply is high and sellers have real competition.

The clearest change is inventory. Los Cabos has roughly 15 months of completed residential supply, while condos sit closer to 16 months and sub-$1 million condos reached 25.8 months in Christie’s H1 2026 analysis. Buyers no longer need to chase ordinary listings.

The headline Cabo price numbers can be misleading because a handful of trophy transactions distort averages. Generic condos are already showing softer pricing while ultra-luxury properties continue producing eight-figure sales, so the market increasingly behaves as several separate markets rather than one.

Seller expectations are adjusting faster than headline prices suggest. More than 1,000 completed homes and condos received price reductions during the first half of 2026, and recent condo sales averaged only about 92% of their original asking price.

Two-bedroom condos are the clearest pressure point. Sales fell from 737 units in 2021 to 320 in 2025 while standing inventory reached 658 units, leaving roughly two years of supply and forcing similar properties to compete directly on price, view, HOA costs and rental performance.

Cabo’s underlying tourism engine remains strong, which is one reason a broad property crash is far from inevitable. Nearly 3.8 million visitors arrived in 2025, although international airport traffic was down 7.2% through July 2026 and deserves watching if the weakness continues.

Airbnb demand has not disappeared, but better occupancy is not automatically producing much better economics. AirDNA shows occupancy around 48% and up year over year, while RevPAR increased only 0.5%, making building-level rental comps much more useful than citywide averages.

Infrastructure is improving without eliminating property-specific risk. Cabo San Lucas is advancing a new desalination plant and other water projects, yet cistern capacity, pumps, tanker dependence and building management can still make two nearby condos very different purchases.

Completed resales currently have a structural advantage over ordinary pre-construction. Buyers can inspect the real unit, verify the view and noise, study the HOA and compare actual sales while developers must now justify why construction risk deserves a premium.

The strongest Cabo purchase today is one that works without rapid appreciation, perfect Airbnb occupancy or an easy resale. A completed property bought below realistic closed comps, held for five to ten years and carrying something difficult to reproduce — beach access, a strong view, walkability, reliable infrastructure or unusually low recurring costs — has a much better setup than an interchangeable leveraged condo.

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Is Cabo finally a buyer’s market?

Yes. Cabo is currently a buyer’s market, and the advantage is especially clear in the condo segment.

The latest BCS MLS analysis for Los Cabos counted 2,134 completed houses and condos for sale, equivalent to about 15 months of inventory. Condos alone were sitting at roughly 16 months. Christie’s H1 2026 analysis, which uses a somewhat broader geographic dataset, found an even heavier imbalance: condos below $1 million had 25.8 months of inventory.

The direction has changed sharply since the boom. Active residential inventory stood at 1,493 units entering 2024, climbed above 2,300 in early 2026 and remains well above the level seen two years ago. Buyers have far more choice now, while sellers face more competition.

Sales are still happening, so this is hardly a frozen market. The latest BCS MLS quarter recorded 293 residential sales and $456 million in volume. The problem for sellers is that new listings continue arriving faster than many categories can absorb them. The overall sales-to-new-listing ratio was only 42%, while condos came in lower.

For anyone who remembers Cabo during 2021 and 2022, the contrast is substantial. A buyer today can compare multiple similar properties, walk away from an unrealistic seller and wait for another unit without assuming the opportunity will disappear immediately.

Cabo market measure Earlier level Current/recent level What changed
Active houses + condos 1,493 entering 2024 2,134 Much more choice
Overall months of inventory Much tighter during boom ~15 months Buyer-friendly
Condo months of inventory Much tighter during boom ~16 months in latest BCS MLS data Softer than houses
Condos under $1M 25.8 months in Christie’s H1 analysis Very heavy supply
Overall sales/new listings 42% Listings are outrunning sales

Are Cabo property prices actually falling now?

Some Cabo property prices are falling now, especially in ordinary condos, but the market has avoided the broad repricing that would qualify as a crash.

Christie’s H1 2026 resale analysis gives us one of the cleaner comparisons because it separates property types and price bands. Condos under $1 million sold for an average of about $394,800, down 6.4% from the same period a year earlier. Sales in that category also fell 20.7%.

Homes under $1 million behaved differently. Their average sale price rose 3.8% to roughly $418,700 even as sales declined 6.5%. Above $1 million, the picture becomes even messier: average home prices fell 14.4%, while average condo prices rose 26.2%.

BCS MLS data tell the same story from another angle. The median condo price fell 8.6% quarter over quarter in early 2026, then the overall residential median rebounded to $525,000 in the following quarter. Average prices jumped much more because a handful of very expensive homes changed the mix.

So asking whether “Cabo prices are up or down” is already too broad. Generic condos have clearly softened. Some luxury categories remain expensive or are still appreciating. The market is fragmenting by product rather than repricing together.

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How much can buyers negotiate on a Cabo property today?

Cabo buyers currently have enough leverage that paying the original asking price on an aging listing should require a very good reason.

The latest BCS MLS report recorded 1,049 price reductions on completed homes and condos during the first half of 2026. Only 176 of those reduced listings had converted into sales by the reporting cut-off. Sellers are cutting prices frequently, yet a price cut alone is still not enough to make buyers bite.

The pattern had already started earlier. There were 1,273 reductions during the first nine months of 2025, already more than the 1,193 recorded during all of 2024. This looks like a sustained reset in seller expectations rather than a few nervous owners reacting to one weak quarter.

Closing prices confirm the leverage. In the latest BCS MLS quarter, condo transactions averaged about 92.1% of original asking price and houses about 87.8%. Christie’s, using a different dataset and methodology, found smaller gaps from the most recent list price, which makes sense because many properties had already been reduced before they sold.

The distinction is useful. The final asking price may look reasonable after several cuts, while the original seller expectation was far higher.

Today we would want to know when a Cabo property first listed, every price change it has gone through, how many nearly identical units are competing with it and what genuinely comparable properties have actually closed for. The asking price by itself tells us surprisingly little.

Are there simply too many two-bedroom condos in Cabo?

Yes. Two-bedroom condos are currently the most obvious oversupplied part of the Cabo residential market.

The latest BCS MLS report showed 658 two-bedroom condos sitting for sale, representing roughly $319 million in asking-price inventory and about 25 months of supply. In the same quarter, 92 two-bedroom units sold while another 226 came onto the market.

The history explains how Cabo got here. Two-bedroom condo sales reached 737 units in 2021 and 720 in 2022. Developers responded to that extraordinary demand. Then sales fell to 459 in 2023, 391 in 2024 and 320 in 2025, just as projects conceived during the boom were moving toward completion.

Demand cooled for three consecutive years while the development pipeline kept producing competing units. That is a rough combination.

There is another layer of supply as well. Pre-construction buyers from the boom years are now receiving finished properties, and some immediately become resale sellers. A buyer can therefore find a developer selling remaining units while early investors in the same project are trying to exit next door.

With roughly two years of two-bedroom inventory at the recent sales pace, this overhang will take time to work through. New resale listings and completed developments keep replenishing the stock along the way.

For buyers, this is probably the clearest place in Cabo to be demanding on price. For sellers, an interchangeable two-bedroom condo now has to compete on something tangible: a better view, better building, lower HOA fee, stronger rental history or simply a lower price.

Year Two-bedroom condo sales Change
2021 737 Boom level
2022 720 -2%
2023 459 -36%
2024 391 -15%
2025 320 -18%
Current standing inventory 658 units ~25 months of supply

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Is Cabo’s luxury real estate market weakening too?

Cabo’s ultra-luxury market is still remarkably strong, even while much of the condo market struggles with excess supply.

The latest BCS MLS quarter produced nine residential sales above $10 million worth a combined $160.9 million. The previous quarter had recorded only one such transaction worth $11.9 million. Properties above $1 million generated roughly 80% of total residential dollar volume.

Those nine $10 million-plus transactions alone contributed more than one-third of the quarter’s $456 million residential volume. A tiny number of trophy sales can therefore make Cabo-wide averages look much stronger than the experience of someone trying to sell a $450,000 condo.

Christie’s H1 data show the split inside luxury itself. Condos above $1 million recorded 45 sales, up 9.8% year over year, with average prices up 26.2%. Homes above $1 million were weaker: sales dropped 31.5% and average prices fell 14.4%.

Specific resort communities diverge even further. Querencia has continued producing very high condo pricing, while Palmilla remains one of Cabo’s most expensive established communities. Other projects have seen much softer resale pricing.

The useful takeaway for a buyer is that “Cabo luxury” is too broad to price anything. Scarce oceanfront homes, branded residences, golf communities and ordinary investment condos are now behaving like separate markets.

Is Cabo tourism still strong enough to support real estate prices?

Yes. Cabo tourism remains strong enough to support real estate, although the latest passenger numbers give us a real reason to stop assuming uninterrupted growth.

Los Cabos received close to 3.8 million visitors in 2025, around 130% more than a decade earlier. The destination now has more than 22,000 hotel rooms, roughly 80% of them in the five-star category, and hotel rates remain among the highest in Mexico. Visit Los Cabos reported 61 nonstop connections in 2025 and says about 40% of visitors are repeat travelers.

Cabo has spent years building the airline access, hotels, golf courses, restaurants and luxury infrastructure needed to keep attracting wealthy North American visitors. That base does not disappear because of one soft year.

The latest airport data are weaker. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico reported 2.79 million international terminal passengers at Los Cabos Airport through July 2026, down 7.2% from the same period a year earlier. International traffic during July alone fell 16.6%.

A decline of that size deserves attention because international visitors are unusually important to Cabo. At the same time, 2.79 million international passengers in seven months still represents enormous traffic for a resort destination of this size.

We therefore have a mature tourism engine going through a softer year rather than evidence that Cabo has suddenly lost its appeal. If international traffic remains down for several consecutive years, the property outlook would need to be reassessed. One weaker period is not enough.

Cabo tourism indicator Latest relevant reading Comparison
Visitors in 2025 ~3.8 million ~130% above a decade earlier
Hotel rooms 22,000+ Large premium resort base
Five-star share ~80% Exceptionally luxury-heavy
Repeat visitors ~40% Strong destination loyalty
International airport passengers through July 2026 2.79M -7.2% YoY
International passengers in July 2026 336,900 -16.6% YoY

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Is Airbnb still a good reason to buy a Cabo condo?

Airbnb can still make a Cabo property work, but buying a generic condo because “Cabo rents well” is much harder to justify today.

The latest AirDNA data put Cabo San Lucas short-term-rental occupancy at about 48% over the trailing year. Occupancy was up 12.4% year over year, which sounds excellent at first. Yet RevPAR increased only 0.5% to roughly $270.

More available nights are being booked, but revenue per available night has barely moved. Hosts are working in a market where occupancy improvement is not automatically translating into much stronger revenue productivity.

AirDNA also gives Cabo a seasonality score of 82 out of 100, suggesting demand is relatively steady compared with many Mexican short-term-rental destinations. That helps owners, but the citywide number hides enormous differences between a beachfront villa, a marina condo, a two-bedroom unit in El Tezal and a property far from the main visitor areas.

The bigger issue is purchase price. A rental can produce impressive gross revenue and still be a mediocre investment once we subtract HOA fees, utilities, management, maintenance, furnishings, insurance, cleaning gaps and vacancy.

Long-term renting deserves more attention in that calculation than it usually gets. A well-priced condo serving residents, remote workers or longer-stay visitors may generate less spectacular gross revenue while avoiding some of the management costs and volatility of nightly rentals.

We would underwrite a Cabo investment using comps from the same building or immediate area, with the same bedroom count and similar amenities. Market-wide Airbnb numbers are useful for checking demand; they are too crude for deciding whether one condo deserves a $500,000 purchase price.

Could Cabo’s water problems make buying risky?

Yes. Water is still a real Cabo property risk today, and buyers should check the building’s own water resilience before assuming the city’s new infrastructure will solve everything.

Cabo San Lucas has spent years dealing with water stress while its population, hotel base and housing stock expanded. The government is now building Desalination Plant No. 2, a major project designed to increase supply and stabilize the distribution system.

OOMSAPAS reported substantial progress during 2026. The project completed the underground crossing needed to carry its transmission line beneath the Transpeninsular Highway, and later updates described finishing work on the reverse-osmosis and electrical buildings.

Other improvements are also underway, including investment in the La Sanluqueña treatment system. The infrastructure work is real and already well beyond the proposal stage.

Still, a new desalination plant does not guarantee identical water reliability across every neighborhood and condominium. Distribution, storage, pumps, cistern capacity and building management can determine whether residents experience shortages even when more water enters the municipal network.

For a Cabo condo purchase today, we would ask how large the building’s cistern is, how often municipal water has been interrupted, whether tanker deliveries are needed, what backup pumps exist and whether the HOA has had recurring water-related expenses. Two otherwise similar condos can deserve different prices if one has repeatedly handled shortages better than the other.

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Is resale better than pre-construction in Cabo right now?

For most buyers, completed Cabo resales are more attractive right now because the market offers enough inventory to remove much of the urgency that once favored pre-construction.

During the 2021–2022 rush, buyers frequently accepted construction risk because completed inventory was scarce and prices were moving quickly. These days, thousands of houses and condos are competing across Los Cabos, and the most crowded condo categories have well over a year of supply.

A resale lets us stand inside the unit, check the real view, hear the actual road noise, inspect construction quality, examine the HOA, test the water setup and see what comparable units have rented or sold for.

Pre-construction still has valid advantages when a strong developer offers an attractive payment schedule, when the property is genuinely unique or when the initial price gives the buyer a real margin over comparable completed units.

The problem starts when the buyer pays a large premium simply for something new. Recently completed investors may already be trying to resell similar units nearby, sometimes before the developer has finished selling its own stock.

With current supply this high, we would make the developer prove why construction and delivery risk deserve the extra money.

Does financing a Cabo property still make sense?

Financing makes a Cabo purchase considerably harder to justify today, particularly for investors expecting the rent to cover most of the mortgage.

Foreign-buyer financing is available, but current borrowing costs remain high. Recent Los Cabos lending guides put dollar-denominated cross-border mortgages roughly in the 7% to 10% range, depending on loan-to-value and borrower quality. Mexican bank financing for foreign buyers can move into double digits and often requires a substantial down payment.

At 8.5%, a $350,000 loan generates almost $30,000 of interest during the first year alone. Add HOA charges, insurance, maintenance, utilities, management and vacancy, and an ordinary rental yield can disappear quickly.

Transaction costs add another hurdle. Baja California Sur now applies a 3% property acquisition tax, calculated after the applicable deduction on the highest relevant valuation basis. Buyers then have notary, registry, appraisal and, for most foreign coastal buyers, fideicomiso expenses as well. Actual totals vary enough that a buyer should get a transaction-specific estimate before making an offer rather than relying on a generic percentage from a brokerage website.

These costs make short ownership periods unattractive. Buying a Cabo property and hoping to sell it two years later after modest appreciation leaves very little room for error.

Cash buyers have much more flexibility in the current market. They can use today’s seller weakness without simultaneously paying expensive interest, and they can wait for rental income or long-term appreciation to do the work.

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Is buying property in Cabo safe for foreigners?

Yes. Foreigners can securely own residential property in Cabo, but the fideicomiso structure and local due diligence make a casual purchase a bad idea.

Cabo lies inside Mexico’s restricted coastal zone. A foreign individual buying residential property there will normally use a fideicomiso, a bank trust in which the Mexican bank holds legal title while the foreign buyer holds the beneficial rights.

The buyer can use the property, rent it, improve it, sell it and designate beneficiaries. The trust is issued for a 50-year term and can be renewed. Foreign ownership through this structure is routine across Mexican coastal markets.

The greater practical risk sits in the property itself. Buyers still need to verify title, liens, permits, condominium documentation, unpaid HOA balances, special assessments, developer obligations and any restrictions affecting rentals.

That work becomes even more important in a softer market. A heavily discounted resale can look appealing precisely because the seller is motivated, yet unresolved building problems can wipe out the benefit of the discount.

We would be especially careful with unfinished common areas, weak HOA finances, recurring water problems and projects where owners are already fighting over construction defects or promised amenities. A bargain price does not repair a bad building.

Where are the best Cabo buying opportunities right now?

The best Cabo opportunities right now are likely to be completed, non-trophy properties where several sellers are competing for the same buyer.

The biggest source of leverage is similarity. If five two-bedroom condos in the same development offer comparable layouts, views and amenities, buyers can force sellers to compete directly on price and terms. That is far more useful than finding one unusual property with no obvious comparable.

The under-$1 million condo market stands out. Christie’s counted 1,202 active listings in this category against 280 sales during the first half of 2026, equivalent to 25.8 months of inventory. Average selling prices were down 6.4% year over year, while units sold fell 20.7%.

Cabo San Lucas and the Cabo Corridor also carry some of the heaviest supply when we compare active inventory with recent sales, although exact months-of-supply figures change depending on which MLS zones and property types a report includes.

A buyer who wants long-term scarcity should still pay for the things Cabo cannot manufacture easily: a genuinely swimmable beach, direct ocean frontage, an exceptional view, a proven golf community or a location where future construction is physically constrained.

But if the goal is negotiating the biggest discount today, boring can actually help. A completed two-bedroom condo surrounded by competing sellers gives the buyer far more leverage than a one-of-a-kind villa.

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Should buyers wait for Cabo prices to fall further?

We would not wait for a Cabo-wide crash, but we would absolutely wait rather than overpay for an ordinary property.

Current conditions already give buyers most of what they would normally hope to see before negotiating: lots of inventory, long marketing periods, repeated reductions and softer sales in mainstream condos.

Christie’s found that condos below $1 million were taking an average of 260 days to sell in H1 2026. Million-dollar-plus condos took much longer, averaging 557 days. Patience is pretty normal in this market now.

There is still no obvious mechanism forcing every Cabo seller to capitulate. A large share of foreign purchases are made with cash, many homes are discretionary second residences, and wealthy owners can simply leave a property listed until somebody meets their price.

That makes waiting for “the bottom” unusually difficult. Cabo can remain oversupplied for a long time without producing the kind of rapid forced-selling cycle seen in highly leveraged residential markets.

The smarter approach is property-specific. If an excellent unit with real scarcity appears at a price supported by closed comps, waiting another year for a theoretical 5% market decline may accomplish very little. If the property is one of 20 interchangeable condos and the seller will barely negotiate, there is currently very little reason to rush.

What would make a Cabo property a genuinely good buy today?

A good Cabo purchase today should make financial sense even if property prices barely move for several years.

That is the standard we would use because current buyers already have negotiating leverage. There is little reason to rescue a weak deal with an aggressive appreciation forecast.

For a resale, the purchase price should be compared with actual closed transactions in the same building or micro-market. We would pay particular attention to older listings that have already gone through several reductions and to developments where multiple owners are trying to sell simultaneously.

For a rental, we would use ordinary occupancy rather than the best winter months and subtract the full operating stack: HOA fees, management, utilities, insurance, repairs, furnishings, cleaning gaps and vacancy. The latest AirDNA data showing stronger Cabo occupancy but almost flat RevPAR growth are a good reminder that more bookings do not automatically mean much better economics.

For personal use, the calculation can be more forgiving. Someone spending several months a year in Cabo gets value from using the home and does not need to maximize rental yield. Even then, a five-to-ten-year holding period makes much more sense than buying with a quick resale in mind.

We would also want at least one reason the property should remain attractive when the market becomes crowded again: an exceptional view, strong walkability, beach access, a difficult-to-copy location, reliable infrastructure or unusually low recurring costs.

If a deal needs rapid appreciation, perfect Airbnb occupancy and an easy resale to work, we would pass.

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Is now actually a good time to buy in Cabo?

Yes. This is a good time to buy selectively in Cabo, and buyers looking at mainstream condos have more leverage than they have had in years.

The strongest evidence is the combination rather than any single statistic. Condo inventory is heavy, two-bedroom sales have fallen for three straight years, under-$1 million condo prices are lower year over year in Christie’s H1 data, sellers have already made more than 1,000 price reductions this year, and many properties are taking eight months or longer to sell.

Meanwhile, Cabo itself remains highly desirable. Nearly 3.8 million visitors came in 2025, the destination has deep North American airline connectivity, luxury hotel infrastructure keeps expanding and trophy real estate can still generate $10 million-plus transactions. The latest decline in international airport traffic is worth watching, though it has not yet changed that broader picture.

For buyers, that is a useful combination: a strong destination with too much ordinary property inventory.

We would be comfortable buying now for a five-to-ten-year hold if the property is completed, correctly priced, affordable without optimistic rental assumptions and hard enough to replace that future buyers will still want it. Cash or modest leverage makes the case considerably stronger.

We would be much less interested in an interchangeable pre-construction condo sold at a premium, a highly leveraged Airbnb investment or any deal whose projected return depends mainly on Cabo prices continuing to rise quickly.

So the answer is yes, selectively. The opportunity in Cabo today comes from having enough supply to negotiate hard while the destination’s long-term appeal remains intact. Buyers no longer need to chase the market, and that is exactly why this is a better time to buy than the boom years.

OUR METHODOLOGY

This analysis tests whether now is a good time to buy property in Cabo by treating the question as a buyer decision rather than relying on a single price index or a general impression of the market. We examine current inventory, absorption, closed pricing, seller behavior, differences between property segments, rental economics, tourism demand, financing conditions, ownership rules and infrastructure risk.

We prioritized the latest available evidence as of August 31, 2026. Older figures are used mainly to establish direction, such as the change in two-bedroom condo demand since the 2021–2022 boom, the buildup in active inventory and the increase in seller price reductions.

For current residential market balance, we rely heavily on BCS MLS-based Los Cabos reports covering completed houses and condos. These provide the article’s core figures for active inventory, months of inventory, sales versus new listings, transaction volume, original-list-price discounts, two-bedroom condo supply, price reductions and $10 million-plus transactions.

Christie’s Real Estate Cabo’s H1 2026 market report is used separately because it breaks resale activity into sub-$1 million and $1 million-plus homes and condos. Its geographic coverage and methodology differ from the BCS MLS reports, so we do not combine the two datasets into one artificial market estimate. We use them to see whether independently measured parts of the market point in the same direction.

Short-term-rental conditions come from AirDNA’s Cabo San Lucas market data, particularly occupancy, RevPAR and seasonality. These figures are used as broad demand checks rather than as projections for an individual property, because rental performance can vary substantially by building, location, bedroom count and amenities.

Tourism demand is checked against official Visit Los Cabos industry data and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico passenger reports. Visit Los Cabos provides the longer-term picture for visitor volumes, hotel supply, air connectivity and repeat visitation, while GAP gives us the more immediate 2026 airport trend, including the decline in international passenger traffic through July.

Water risk is assessed using updates from OOMSAPAS Los Cabos on Desalination Plant No. 2, the La Sanluqueña treatment project and distribution infrastructure. We treat those projects as evidence that supply infrastructure is improving, while keeping the property-level questions separate: cisterns, pumps, tanker dependence and building management can still determine what an owner actually experiences.

For foreign ownership, we prioritize Mexican government sources: the Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores restricted-zone fideicomiso guidance, Mexico’s Foreign Investment Law and the Mexican Embassy’s explanation of real-estate acquisition by foreigners. Baja California Sur’s Congress is used for the 2026 property-acquisition tax change. Financing availability is checked against MoXi’s cross-border mortgage program and current Los Cabos lending information rather than assuming that U.S.-style mortgage terms apply in Mexico.

Key sources include the BCS MLS-based Q2 2026 Los Cabos residential market report, the Q3 2025 BCS MLS-based report, the Q4 2025 BCS MLS-based report, Christie’s Real Estate Cabo’s H1 2026 market report, AirDNA’s Cabo San Lucas market overview, AirDNA’s seasonality data, Visit Los Cabos industry data, GAP’s July 2026 airport traffic report, OOMSAPAS on Desalination Plant No. 2, OOMSAPAS on La Sanluqueña, Mexico’s Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores on restricted-zone fideicomisos, Mexico’s Foreign Investment Law, the Mexican Embassy’s guidance on foreign real-estate ownership, the Congress of Baja California Sur on the 2026 acquisition-tax change, and MoXi’s cross-border mortgage program.

The final conclusion comes from the weight of these datasets together. We are not trying to call the exact bottom of Cabo’s property cycle. The relevant question is whether buyers now have enough inventory, negotiating leverage and pricing weakness to find good individual deals while Cabo itself still has the tourism demand, infrastructure and long-term scarcity that can support a five-to-ten-year holding period.

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