Is Tulum property still worth buying now?

Did the Tulum property boom actually break?

Yes. Prices are mixed, but the collapse in sales is hard to argue with.

An InfoHabitat study built on Softec data, published by El Economista in July 2026, shows how far the expansion went. Homes under construction rose from 1,466 in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023. Homes for sale reached 6,340 in 2023, almost double the 3,243 of 2019.

Then buyers stopped keeping up. Annual sales fell from 3,487 units in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, a drop of about 51% in two years. Monthly sales per development slipped from 1.4 units in 2022 to 0.9 in 2025.

Put together, the 6,340 homes for sale in 2023 equal about 3.7 years of sales at the 2025 pace, and the 13,266 units under construction almost eight years. Those are rough ratios, since projects were completed, sold or abandoned in between, but they show how far building ran ahead of buying.

Tulum still attracts buyers. What's gone is the idea that developers can keep launching the same investment condo and find new investors to absorb it.

Tulum residential indicator	Earlier level	Later level	Change	What it shows
Units under construction	1,466 in 2017	13,266 in 2023	More than 9x	Construction exploded
Homes for sale	3,243 in 2019	6,340 in 2023	+96%	Available inventory nearly doubled
Annual home sales	3,487 in 2023	1,711 in 2025	-51%	Buyer demand weakened sharply
Monthly sales per development	1.4 in 2022	0.9 in 2025	-36%	Projects are taking longer to sell

Are Tulum property prices still falling now?

Yes, slowly on average and fast in some pockets. Propiedades.com puts Tulum apartment asking prices 3.6% below April 2025 levels in its October 2026 data.

Inside the market, the gap is wide. Aldea Zamá is almost flat at -0.6% and La Veleta is up 2.6%. Tumben Kaa is down 4.4%, Lúum Zamá 16.5% and Las Palmas 21.6%, although Las Palmas only has 14 listings, so a few units can swing it.

These are asking prices, not sale prices. Propiedades.com mixes listing and transaction data, so it isn't a clean index of what the same condo sold for twice. Still, a 3.6% dip in asking prices next to a 51% fall in sales tells you that many sellers haven't adjusted yet.

There's also a hidden adjustment. InfoHabitat found that selling prices rose 39% between 2021 and 2025 while construction costs rose 47%. Developers made up for it by shrinking apartments, so a unit can keep its sticker price while you get fewer square meters.

Tulum apartment market	Average asking price	Median price/m²	Change since April 2025	Active listings
Aldea Zamá	MXN 5.16M	MXN 47,300	-0.6%	1,549
La Veleta	MXN 3.36M	MXN 44,700	+2.6%	977
Tumben Kaa	MXN 3.09M	MXN 40,100	-4.4%	125
Lúum Zamá	MXN 5.09M	MXN 50,800	-16.5%	42
Las Palmas	MXN 3.05M	MXN 37,600	-21.6%	14

Did Tulum simply build too many condos?

Yes. Tulum has too many similar investment condos for the buyers and renters chasing them.

A huge share of the boom targeted the same investor: small apartments sold around pools, rooftops, gyms, jungle design and Airbnb income. If you don't like the price of one one-bedroom in Aldea Zamá, there are hundreds of others. Guests on Airbnb can scroll through a long row of near-identical units and pick the cheapest with good reviews.

The listing counts show it. Propiedades.com has 1,549 apartments for sale in Aldea Zamá and 977 in La Veleta. Even allowing for stale and duplicate listings, that's a lot for two neighborhoods.

InfoHabitat adds one more number: only about 21% of Tulum's housing is permanently occupied, against 82% in Playa del Carmen and 89% in Cancún. Tulum depends on investors, second-home owners and tourists to keep its housing stock useful.

So owning a condo in Tulum gives you no scarcity. The unit needs something others can't copy: a better price, a strong location, more space, a view, a proven rental record or real beach access.

Is tourism still strong enough to support Tulum property?

Not for every condo built around it. Tulum hotel occupancy fell to 66.18% in the first half of 2026, from 74.32% a year earlier, according to Quintana Roo's tourism data.

It had already slipped from 73.8% in 2024 to 69.1% in 2025, and the January to July 2026 figure is 63.69%, against 72.67% a year earlier. July didn't turn things around.

Tulum is also weakening faster than its neighbors. In the first half of 2026, its occupancy fell 8.13 points, against 4.47 in Playa del Carmen and 3.87 in the Riviera Maya.

The real issue for owners is capacity. A place can stay busy and still be a worse investment if hotel rooms and rental units grow faster than paying guests. Two-thirds occupancy isn't a ghost town, but it's weak for a market where thousands of condos were sold on the promise of ever-rising tourism.

Did Tulum Airport and Tren Maya actually help property owners?

They made Tulum easier to reach, but they haven't brought the demand surge investors paid for. Airport traffic is now falling.

Tulum Airport handled about 1.23 million passengers in 2024 and 1.24 million in 2025: flat after its first full year. Then, according to AFAC statistics, it handled 471,500 passengers in the first half of 2026, down 33.2% from 705,400 a year earlier. International traffic fell 40.8%, from 417,600 to 247,100. June alone was down 44.8%.

Tren Maya adds a link to Cancún, Playa del Carmen and the rest of the Yucatán Peninsula. But buyers already paid for both projects while they were renderings.

Now that we can judge the airport on real traffic, it doesn't justify paying a premium just because Tulum has its own airport and train station.

Are airlines pulling out of Tulum?

Yes. Aeroméxico suspended all its Tulum flights on September 30, 2026, calling it temporary, according to Diario de Yucatán.

Volaris is expected to stop flying to Tulum in early 2027, and American Airlines is dropping its Miami–Tulum route while keeping Dallas. Bloomberg Intelligence, quoted by El Imparcial in October 2026, projected air capacity to Tulum down 72% for the quarter, about half of it seasonal, against roughly 3% for Cancún.

Tulum isn't cut off: Cancún airport is still within driving distance. But a direct flight was part of the sales pitch, and fewer flights mean fewer guests for short-term rentals.

What to do: if you're buying to rent out, base your numbers on low-season occupancy, ask the seller or manager for 12 months of real booking statements, and check which routes still serve Tulum airport for your guests' travel dates.

Is Airbnb in Tulum still profitable today?

Yes for good units, but the market is far less forgiving than old projections suggested. AirDNA counts about 3,608 active short-term rentals in Tulum in September 2026, with average annual revenue of $17,400 per listing (about MXN 324,000).

The year-on-year moves look odd. Active listings are down 73.1%, occupancy is up 17% to 46% and revenue per listing is up 60.5%. But the average nightly rate is down 23.6% to about $125, and RevPAR (revenue per available night) is still 10.7% lower at $58.

Don't read the drop in listings as thousands of apartments vanishing. AirDNA counts listings by activity across Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com, and new registration rules may have pushed some owners off the platforms. What matters: fewer units share the bookings, and they fill nights by cutting prices.

A well-reviewed two-bedroom in a good spot can earn far more than $17,400. A generic studio in a crowded building can earn far less.

Do you need a licence to rent out a Tulum condo on Airbnb now?

Yes. Quintana Roo now requires state and municipal operating licences plus registration in the RETUR-Q tourism register, and wants platforms to show only registered listings.

Hosts also need basic safety equipment (smoke and carbon monoxide alarms, a fire extinguisher and a first-aid kit), and a 6% state lodging tax is collected from guests through the platforms.

That's an extra cost and some paperwork, but the bigger risk is a building that won't let you rent short term, or a project without valid permits, which can make a licence hard to get.

What to do: before buying for Airbnb, ask whether the unit is already registered, read the condo rules (reglamento) on short-term rentals, and add licence and registration costs to your yield calculation.

What return can a Tulum condo realistically make now?

For an ordinary Tulum condo, plan on a mid-single-digit return before tax, a low single-digit one after it, and ask for proof before assuming more.

Start with AirDNA's $17,400 average. If operating costs eat 35% of revenue, about $11,310 is left before financing and income tax. At $200,000, that's 5.7%. At $250,000, it's 4.5%.

At 45% costs, income drops to about $9,570. The same $200,000 condo then makes about 4.8%, and a $300,000 one barely 3.2%.

Those cost levels are our assumptions, not AirDNA's. Real results depend on management fees, electricity, HOA fees, repairs, linen, platform fees, cleaning and furniture.

This is where many Tulum pitches fall apart. An 8% or 10% return looks fine when someone divides gross Airbnb revenue by the price. Add real costs and it shrinks fast. Start from what the unit can earn, then work back to the price.

Then the tax. A non-resident owner pays Mexican income tax of 25% on gross rent, with no deductions: about $4,350 on $17,400. At 35% costs, that leaves about $6,960, or 3.5% on a $200,000 condo and 2.8% on a $250,000 one.

Purchase price	Gross yield on $17,400 revenue	Yield before tax, 35% costs	Yield before tax, 45% costs	Net yield after 25% non-resident tax, 35% costs
$150,000	11.6%	7.5%	6.4%	4.6%
$200,000	8.7%	5.7%	4.8%	3.5%
$250,000	7.0%	4.5%	3.8%	2.8%
$300,000	5.8%	3.8%	3.2%	2.3%
$350,000	5.0%	3.2%	2.7%	2.0%

Is long-term renting a safer backup for a Tulum condo?

It's more predictable, but returns are modest and rents are falling. Tulum apartment rents are down 5.6% since April 2025, according to Propiedades.com.

In Aldea Zamá, an average apartment asks about MXN 5.16 million and rents for about MXN 23,600 a month (around $1,270), roughly 5.5% gross a year. La Veleta comes out at about 6.0% and Tumben Kaa at about 6.9%, though Propiedades.com shows exactly the same rent for Tumben Kaa as for Tulum Centro, so treat that one with care. Villas Tulum is weaker at about 4.2%.

Those yields are before HOA fees, repairs, vacancy and taxes, and they compare average rents with average asking prices, not the same units. Rents are also going the wrong way: down 8.4% in Aldea Zamá, 5.7% in La Veleta, 5.6% in Tumben Kaa and 11.5% in Villas Tulum.

Use this as a stress test. If a condo only works with Airbnb income and becomes a burden on a long-term lease, you're taking more risk than the headline yield shows.

Area	Average apartment asking price	Average monthly rent	Implied gross yield	Rent change since April 2025
Aldea Zamá	MXN 5.16M	MXN 23,610	5.5%	-8.4%
La Veleta	MXN 3.36M	MXN 16,700	6.0%	-5.7%
Tumben Kaa	MXN 3.09M	MXN 17,707	6.9%	-5.6%
Villas Tulum	MXN 3.93M	MXN 13,772	4.2%	-11.5%

Does the neighborhood matter more than Tulum itself now?

Yes. Where exactly you buy now matters much more than "investing in Tulum".

Aldea Zamá is the most established area, with restaurants, finished buildings, mostly paved streets and strong name recognition. The downside is competition: 1,549 apartments are listed for sale there.

La Veleta is cheaper, around MXN 3.36 million on average against MXN 5.16 million in Aldea Zamá, and its asking prices have held up better. But 977 apartments are listed there too, and one street can be very different from the next.

Tumben Kaa is cheaper again and has the best long-term rental yield in our table. Tulum Centro serves a different mix of residents and visitors. Beachfront areas such as Tankah are in a different price range altogether.

Real beachfront deserves its own treatment because the land is limited, while inland studios can keep being built farther out. That scarcity helps a good beachfront property hold value, unless you overpay for it. Judge Tulum almost block by block.

Is selling a Tulum condo harder than buying one?

Yes. Getting your money back out has become one of the biggest risks for Tulum owners.

Sales fell from 3,487 in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, so far fewer buyers are around. Resale owners compete with each other and with developers still selling new units with payment plans, furniture packages and discounts that a private seller can't easily match.

That's also why presales are harder to justify. With so many finished condos available, you don't need to take construction risk to get into Tulum. A finished unit lets you inspect the building, the street, the HOA, the water and power, and the real rental record.

A presale can still make sense with a developer who has delivered before and a price clearly below comparable finished units. Buying early because "prices will rise by completion" is a weak bet now. If you might need the money back quickly, don't count on an easy exit.

Are foreign buyers taking a big legal risk in Tulum?

Not because of the foreign-ownership structure. The real risk is the project itself.

Tulum is inside Mexico's restricted coastal zone, so foreigners buy residential property through a fideicomiso: a Mexican bank holds title as trustee, and you keep the rights to use, rent, improve, sell and pass on the property. The trust runs for up to 50 years and can be renewed. The federal permit costs MXN 21,650 (about $1,160), plus bank and closing costs.

That system is well established. The hard part is checking what goes into the trust: land title, condominium registration, permits, debts, construction compliance, environmental rules, water and power, the developer's history and the exact unit being sold. A fideicomiso can hold a problem property just as easily as a good one.

Which Tulum projects have authorities flagged in 2026?

Several, and the list keeps growing. Quintana Roo's urban development agency, SEDETUS, had flagged 123 irregular developments across the state by August 2026, up from 116 at the end of 2025, and Tulum closed 18 developments in the six months to February 2026 for breaking the rules.

Some warnings hit well-known areas. In August 2026, authorities told buyers not to buy, sell or sign anything for Ocean Tulum in La Veleta, a project of about 272 units sold since 2022 and still not delivered. Mayab Tulum got a warning in July 2026, and Yaax Taanil Kaah and Zonot Kaahah were flagged in early October 2026 for lacking urban permits.

A flagged project can leave you with a unit you can't deed, rent legally or resell.

What to do before paying anything: search the project on the SEDETUS registry the same day, ask for the construction licence, the land-use certificate (uso de suelo) and the registered condominium regime, and have your own lawyer or notary check the title. Avoid ejido land unless it has been fully converted to private title, and never wire money to a developer without escrow or a trust in place.

What should investors distrust most in a Tulum property pitch?

Guaranteed-looking rental returns, automatic appreciation and a single impressive Airbnb projection.

You can check those claims against the market. AirDNA puts average revenue around $17,400 and occupancy at 46%, with nightly rates down 23.6% in a year. Hotel occupancy is weakening, flights are being cut, and home sales halved between 2023 and 2025.

None of that proves a specific condo will do badly. Together, it means an aggressive projection needs hard evidence.

A seller forecasting 80% occupancy should show finished, comparable units getting close to that. A developer promising 10% should say whether that's gross revenue or net income, which costs are left out, where the nightly rate comes from and what happens in low season.

Be just as wary of any forecast that adds 8%, 10% or 15% a year to today's price. Tulum shows that sales can collapse while listed prices barely move. The document that counts is the real rental history of the unit, or of comparable units in the same finished building, not a spreadsheet made by the seller.

Are distressed Tulum resales the best opportunity now?

Probably. The most interesting deals today are finished resales where the owner wants out more than they want the highest price.

Weak markets open a gap between asking prices and what sellers will accept. Tulum has all the ingredients: heavy inventory, slower sales, weaker tourism and owners who bought mainly for rental income. With dozens of similar units available, there's no reason to chase an ordinary condo.

The entry price changes everything. Say comparable finished condos are listed around $220,000 and one owner accepts $170,000. On AirDNA's $17,400 average, the gross yield goes from about 7.9% to 10.2%. With 35% costs, the yield before tax goes from about 5.1% to 6.7%, and after a non-resident's 25% tax on gross rent from about 3.2% to 4.1%.

The building didn't get better and tourism didn't recover. You just paid $50,000 less for the same income. That's the version of Tulum investing that holds up right now.

What price would make a Tulum condo worth buying?

For an average-performing short-term rental, roughly $160,000 to $190,000, if the unit can really earn around today's market average.

AirDNA puts average annual revenue at $17,400. With 35% costs, about $11,310 is left. For a 6% return, that supports a price around $188,500. For 7%, it's about $161,600. With 45% costs, income falls to about $9,570, and a 6% target supports about $159,500.

These targets are before income tax. A non-resident paying 25% of gross rent keeps about $6,960 at 35% costs, so a 4% net yield after tax needs a price around $174,000, and 5% about $139,000.

That's a screening tool, not a valuation for every apartment. A two-bedroom earning $30,000 a year can justify much more. A weak studio earning $10,000 deserves much less.

Personal use changes the math too. If you spend several months a year there, a lower financial return can be perfectly reasonable. For a pure investor, a weaker market should mean a lower entry price, not a more optimistic spreadsheet.

Target yield before tax	Price with $11,310 net income (35% costs)	Price with $9,570 net income (45% costs)	What the price implies
4%	$282,750	$239,250	You're betting on appreciation
5%	$226,200	$191,400	Fine for a strong property
6%	$188,500	$159,500	A more attractive entry point
7%	$161,600	$136,700	Needs a real discount
8%	$141,375	$119,625	Likely a distressed or unusual deal

Could Tulum property recover strongly from here?

It can recover, but the evidence points to a slow cleanup, not another boom soon.

The basics are still there: international name recognition, a big tourism economy, its own airport, Tren Maya, beaches, cenotes, ruins and a population that has grown fast over the long term.

Weakness also repairs a market. Developers launch fewer projects, weaker short-term rental owners quit, sellers cut prices and better operators win more bookings. AirDNA may be showing the start of that: far fewer active listings and occupancy up to 46%. But nightly rates are still down 23.6% and RevPAR 10.7%, so it isn't a clean recovery.

We'd turn more positive if several things happened together: sales rising again, resale inventory shrinking, hotel occupancy and airport traffic growing year on year, and Airbnb nightly rates going up without losing occupancy. Until then, buyers have the leverage.

So, is Tulum property still worth buying now?

Yes, but only the right property at the right price. Buying any Tulum condo is a bad strategy today; buying a proven unit from an owner the market has already disappointed can make good sense.

The numbers explain why. Sales fell about 51% between 2023 and 2025. Hotel occupancy is well below last year, airport traffic fell 33.2% in the first half of 2026 and airlines are cutting routes. Airbnb nightly rates are down 23.6%. Aldea Zamá alone has 1,549 apartments listed for sale and La Veleta 977.

That makes generic presales, expensive studios and anything that only works on aggressive Airbnb numbers hard to defend.

The other side is more interesting. Tulum still has real tourism, real infrastructure and a known name. Some neighborhoods are holding their prices. And owners who need to sell now face far fewer buyers.

So focus on finished properties, checked permits and title, good micro-locations, real rental histories and sellers ready to negotiate. For a pure investment, aim for a 5% to 6% return before tax, about 3% to 4% after a non-resident's tax, without counting on appreciation. A lifestyle buyer who'll use the place for years has more room on yield. Someone buying because "Tulum always goes up" has no margin for error.