Is Tulum property still worth buying now?

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Did the Tulum property boom actually break?

Yes. Tulum property has clearly moved out of its boom phase, and the collapse in sales activity is much harder to dismiss than the mixed price data.

A recent InfoHabitat study, built from Softec and tourism data, shows how extreme the expansion became. Homes under construction rose from 1,466 in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023. Inventory for sale reached 6,340 homes in 2023, almost double the 3,243 available in 2019.

Then buyers stopped keeping up. Annual sales fell from 3,487 units in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, a drop of roughly 51% in two years. Monthly sales per development also slipped from 1.4 units in 2022 to 0.9 in 2025.

Put those numbers together and the problem becomes clearer. The 6,340 homes already for sale in 2023 represented about 3.7 years of sales at the 2025 transaction pace. The 13,266 units that had been under construction represented almost eight years of that pace. Those ratios are illustrative rather than forecasts because some projects were completed, sold or changed status, but they show how far construction ran ahead of actual buying.

Tulum still attracts buyers. What disappeared was the assumption that developers could keep launching similar investment condos and find enough new investors to absorb them quickly.

Are Tulum property prices still falling now?

Tulum property prices are soft today, although the correction looks very different depending on where and what someone owns.

Propiedades.com's latest market estimates put average Tulum apartment prices around 2% below early-2025 levels. That sounds mild until we look inside the market.

Aldea Zama is almost flat, down roughly 0.4%. La Veleta is about 9% higher. Tumben Kaa is down roughly 7%. Luum Zama has fallen around 11%, Guerra de Castas around 15%, while the much smaller Las Palmas sample shows a decline above 20%.

We should be careful with these figures. Propiedades.com combines listing and transaction information, so this is not a clean repeat-sales index showing exactly what the same condo sold for twice. Thin neighborhoods can also move sharply when the mix of listings changes.

Still, the spread is useful. Tulum no longer behaves like one market where nearly every neighborhood moves in the same direction.

There is another adjustment hidden in the headline prices. InfoHabitat found that average selling prices rose 39% between 2021 and 2025 while construction costs climbed 47%. Developers partly dealt with that squeeze by making apartments smaller. A unit can therefore maintain its sticker price while buyers receive fewer square metres for their money.

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Did Tulum simply build too many condos?

Yes. Tulum has too many similar investment condos for the number of buyers and renters currently chasing them.

The oversupply becomes especially obvious when we look at what was built. Tulum did not add thousands of completely different homes serving completely different residents. A huge share of the boom targeted the same investor: relatively small apartments marketed around pools, rooftop areas, gyms, jungle design, coworking spaces and Airbnb income.

That creates a substitution problem. If a buyer dislikes the price of one one-bedroom condo in Aldea Zama, there are hundreds of alternatives. The same guest searching Airbnb can compare a long row of visually similar properties and choose whichever offers the best combination of price, reviews and location.

Current listing data still show how much choice buyers have. Propiedades.com reports more than 1,700 apartments for sale in Aldea Zama and more than 1,000 in La Veleta. Even allowing for stale listings and some duplication, those are very large inventories for small neighborhoods.

InfoHabitat adds another useful number: only about 21% of Tulum's housing was classified as permanently occupied in its comparison, versus 82% in Playa del Carmen and 89% in Cancun. Tulum is unusually dependent on investors, second-home owners and tourists to keep a large housing stock economically useful.

Simply owning a condo in Tulum gives an investor very little scarcity these days. The property needs something other condos cannot easily copy: a better price, a strong location, unusually good space, a view, proven rental performance or genuine beachfront scarcity.

Is tourism still strong enough to support Tulum property?

Tulum still has a large tourism economy, but tourism is currently too weak to rescue every condo that was built around it.

The most recent official occupancy numbers are poor. According to Quintana Roo's tourism observatory, Tulum hotels averaged 73.8% occupancy in 2024 and 69.1% in 2025. During the first half of 2026, occupancy fell again to 66.18%, compared with 74.32% during the same period a year earlier.

That 8.1-point year-over-year decline stands out inside the state. Over the same first-half comparison, Riviera Maya occupancy fell by 3.9 points and Playa del Carmen by 4.5. Tulum weakened roughly twice as much.

The awkward part for owners is capacity. A destination can remain busy while becoming a worse investment market if hotel rooms and rental units grow faster than the number of guests willing to pay for them.

Tulum is in that position now. Two-thirds hotel occupancy hardly looks like an abandoned destination. It does look weak when thousands of condos were sold on the assumption that tourism demand would keep getting stronger.

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Did Tulum Airport and Tren Maya actually help property owners?

Tulum Airport and Tren Maya have made Tulum much easier to reach, but the airport's latest passenger numbers show that better infrastructure has not produced the demand surge property investors once expected.

Tulum Airport handled roughly 1.23 million passengers in 2024 and around 1.24 million in 2025. Growth had already flattened after the first full year.

The deterioration since then is much clearer. According to AFAC statistics, the airport handled 471,500 passengers during the first half of 2026, down 33.2% from 705,400 a year earlier. International traffic fell even faster, from 417,600 passengers to 247,100, a drop of 40.8%.

June was weaker again. Total traffic fell 44.8% year over year, while international traffic was down 63.2%.

Tren Maya adds another useful connection with Cancun, Playa del Carmen and the wider Yucatan Peninsula, and both projects make Tulum structurally more accessible than it was several years ago. But investors already paid for much of that future infrastructure while it was still being built.

We can now judge the airport on actual usage rather than renderings and forecasts. So far, the evidence does not support paying a large property premium simply because Tulum has its own airport and rail station.

Is Airbnb in Tulum still profitable today?

Yes, good Tulum Airbnbs can still make money, but the current market is far less forgiving than the old rental projections suggested.

AirDNA's latest completed data show 4,130 active short-term rentals in Tulum, with average annual revenue of about $17,700. Average occupancy is 46%, the average booked nightly rate is $125 and RevPAR is $57.

The year-over-year movements are unusual. Occupancy has risen 17.4% and average revenue per active listing has jumped 62.2%, while the average daily rate has fallen 23% and RevPAR remains 9.7% lower.

AirDNA also shows active listings down 69.4% year over year. We would be careful about reading that huge drop as thousands of physical apartments permanently disappearing from the market. AirDNA counts properties according to listing activity across Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com, so participation, availability and data coverage can affect the total.

The price and occupancy combination is more dependable. Remaining properties are booking a larger share of their available nights, but hosts are charging much less per booked night than a year earlier. Competition is still forcing prices down.

A well-reviewed two-bedroom apartment with a strong location can sit far above the $17,700 market average. A generic studio in a crowded building can sit far below it.

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What return can a Tulum condo realistically make now?

For an ordinary Tulum condo today, we would underwrite a mid-single-digit unlevered return and demand evidence before assuming anything higher.

Using AirDNA's $17,700 average annual revenue gives us a useful base case. If operating expenses consume 35% of revenue, approximately $11,500 remains before financing and income tax. At a $200,000 purchase price, that equals a 5.8% return. At $250,000, it falls to 4.6%.

Raise operating costs to 45% and annual income drops to roughly $9,700. The same $200,000 condo then produces about 4.9%, while a $300,000 purchase produces barely 3.2%.

Those operating-cost assumptions are ours, rather than AirDNA's. Actual results depend heavily on management fees, electricity, HOA costs, repairs, linen replacement, platform fees, cleaning arrangements and furnishing.

This is where many Tulum investment pitches fall apart. An 8% or 10% return can look believable when someone divides optimistic gross Airbnb revenue by the purchase price. Once realistic expenses are included, the yield can shrink quickly.

We would start with achievable income and work backward to the price. That keeps the rental projection from turning into whatever number is needed to justify an expensive condo.

Is long-term renting a safer backup for a Tulum condo?

Long-term renting gives a Tulum owner a more predictable fallback, although current rents usually produce modest rather than spectacular returns.

The latest Propiedades.com data put the average Aldea Zama apartment around MXN 5.03 million, with average monthly rent close to MXN 24,600. That works out to approximately 5.9% gross annual yield.

La Veleta looks slightly better on paper. An average price around MXN 3.25 million and rent around MXN 16,700 imply a 6.2% gross yield. Tumben Kaa is around MXN 3.07 million to buy and MXN 17,700 to rent, giving roughly 6.9% gross.

Those numbers still come before HOA costs, repairs, vacancy, taxes and other ownership expenses. Current rent trends are also weak. Propiedades.com shows apartment rents down roughly 7.4% in Aldea Zama since early 2025, around 8.6% in La Veleta and about 4% in Tumben Kaa.

That fallback test is useful when reviewing an Airbnb deal. If a condo becomes financially painful the moment short-term rental income disappoints, the buyer is taking much more risk than the headline yield suggests.

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Does the neighborhood matter more than Tulum itself now?

Yes. The exact part of Tulum someone buys in now matters far more than the broad idea of "investing in Tulum."

Aldea Zama is mature by local standards. It has established restaurants, completed buildings, paved streets in many parts and strong name recognition among tourists and foreign buyers. The downside is obvious in the live inventory: more than 1,700 apartments are currently listed for sale there on Propiedades.com.

La Veleta offers lower entry prices, with the average apartment around MXN 3.25 million compared with roughly MXN 5.03 million in Aldea Zama. It has also held up better in recent asking-price estimates. But more than 1,000 apartments are listed there too, and the difference between one street and another can be substantial.

Tumben Kaa is cheaper again and currently looks stronger on long-term rental yield. Tulum Centro serves a somewhat different mix of residents and visitors. Beachfront areas such as Tankah operate in a completely different price range.

True coastal property deserves special treatment because the supply of actual beachfront land is physically limited. Inland studios can keep being built farther out. That scarcity can help a good beachfront asset hold value over time, although investors can easily destroy the advantage by paying an excessive premium.

We would now assess Tulum property almost block by block. Averages for the whole city hide too much.

Is selling a Tulum condo harder than buying one?

Yes. Resale liquidity has become one of the biggest practical risks for Tulum property owners.

The drop from 3,487 annual residential sales in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025 shows that the pool of completed transactions shrank sharply. Meanwhile, owners trying to resell have to compete with a huge stock of other owners and with developers still selling brand-new units.

Developers can make that competition uncomfortable. They can offer payment plans, furniture, promotional discounts or staged deposits that a private resale owner cannot easily match.

The latest Propiedades.com inventory gives us a feel for that competition. Aldea Zama alone currently has hundreds of used apartments listed for sale alongside a much larger overall supply of apartments.

Presales have become harder to justify for the same reason. When completed properties are plentiful, buyers no longer need to accept construction risk simply to gain access to Tulum. A finished condo allows us to inspect the building, see the surroundings, check the HOA, verify utilities and review real rental performance.

A presale can still make sense when the developer has a strong delivery record and the price sits clearly below comparable completed units. But buying early just because prices are supposed to rise by completion is a much weaker bet now.

For anyone who may need the money back quickly, Tulum is a poor place to assume an easy exit.

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Are foreign buyers taking a big legal risk in Tulum?

Buying Tulum property as a foreigner is legally manageable, although the project itself can create far more risk than the foreign-ownership structure.

Tulum sits inside Mexico's restricted coastal zone. Foreigners buying residential property within 50 kilometres of the coast generally use a fideicomiso, where a Mexican bank holds legal title as trustee while the buyer receives the beneficial rights to use, rent, improve, sell and inherit the property.

The authorization can run for up to 50 years and can be extended. The federal permission fee is currently MXN 21,650, on top of bank and transaction costs.

This system is well established. The harder part of due diligence comes before the trust is useful: confirming land title, condominium registration, permits, debts, construction compliance, environmental restrictions, water and electricity arrangements, developer history and the legal status of the exact unit being sold.

Tulum's rapid development makes those checks especially important. A fideicomiso can hold a legally problematic property just as easily as a good one.

What should investors distrust most in a Tulum property pitch?

Investors should be deeply skeptical of Tulum condos sold around guaranteed-looking rental returns, automatic appreciation or a single impressive Airbnb projection.

The current market gives us several ways to reality-check those claims. AirDNA puts average short-term rental revenue around $17,700. Average occupancy is 46%. The average daily rate has fallen 23% year over year. Meanwhile, official hotel occupancy has weakened and the residential market recently lost roughly half its annual sales volume.

These figures come from different parts of the market, so no single one proves that a specific condo will perform badly. Taken together, they make aggressive projections increasingly difficult to accept without property-level evidence.

A seller forecasting 80% occupancy should be able to show completed comparable units achieving something close to it. A developer promising a 10% return should explain whether that means gross revenue or net operating income, which costs are excluded, how the rental rate was chosen and what happens during weak months.

We would also question any appreciation forecast that simply adds 8%, 10% or 15% every year to today's purchase price. Recent Tulum data show why that can fail: transaction volumes can collapse even when published prices appear relatively stable.

The useful document is the trailing rental history of the exact unit, or of genuinely comparable units in the same completed building. A spreadsheet produced by the person selling the condo carries much less weight.

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Are distressed Tulum resales the best opportunity now?

Probably. The most interesting Tulum deals today are increasingly found among completed resales where the owner wants liquidity more than the highest possible asking price.

Weak markets create a gap between advertised value and the amount a seller will actually accept. Tulum has several ingredients that can widen that gap: heavy listing inventory, slower transactions, softer tourism metrics and owners who bought primarily for rental income.

That gives patient buyers an advantage. There is little reason to chase an ordinary condo when dozens of similar options are available.

The math can change dramatically with the entry price. Imagine comparable completed condos are advertised around $220,000 but an owner accepts $170,000. Using AirDNA's $17,700 average annual revenue, the gross revenue yield goes from about 8.0% at $220,000 to 10.4% at $170,000.

With our 35% expense assumption, the same income produces approximately 5.2% net at $220,000 and 6.8% at $170,000.

The building has not improved. Tourism has not suddenly recovered. We simply paid $50,000 less for the same income stream.

That version of Tulum investing is much more convincing right now.

What price would make a Tulum condo worth buying?

For an average-performing Tulum short-term rental, a purchase price roughly between $160,000 and $190,000 starts to look much more interesting if the property can genuinely produce around today's market-average revenue.

AirDNA currently puts average annual revenue at $17,700. Assuming 35% operating costs leaves about $11,500 in pre-financing operating income.

If we want a 6% yield from that income, the property supports a price around $192,000. A 7% target pushes the price down to roughly $164,000.

With 45% operating costs, annual income falls to around $9,700. A 6% target then supports a price close to $162,000.

These figures are a market-level screening tool, not a valuation for every apartment. A two-bedroom unit earning $30,000 a year can justify substantially more. A weak studio earning $10,000 deserves substantially less.

Personal use changes the calculation too. Someone spending several months a year in Tulum receives value from occupying the property, so a lower financial yield may be perfectly rational.

For a pure investor, though, today's weaker market should translate into a lower entry price rather than a more optimistic spreadsheet.

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Could Tulum property recover strongly from here?

Yes, Tulum property can recover, although the evidence currently supports a gradual cleanup more than another immediate boom.

The ingredients for a future recovery are still there. Tulum has international name recognition, a large tourism economy, its own airport, Tren Maya connectivity, beaches, cenotes, archaeological attractions and a permanent population that has grown enormously over the longer term.

The current weakness can also help repair the market. Developers launch fewer projects when absorption is poor. Some short-term rental owners leave the market. Sellers reduce prices. Better operators take a larger share of bookings. Over time, demand can catch up with the stock already built.

AirDNA may be showing the beginning of that process. Its active-listing count has dropped sharply and occupancy among remaining active rentals has improved to 46%. Yet nightly rates are still 23% lower and RevPAR is down almost 10%, so this is not a clean recovery yet.

We would become much more positive if several things began happening together: residential sales started rising again, live resale inventory came down, hotel occupancy stopped deteriorating, airport passenger traffic returned to sustained growth and Airbnb nightly rates improved without giving back occupancy.

For now, buyers have more leverage precisely because those conditions have not arrived.

So, is Tulum property still worth buying now?

Yes, but only the right Tulum property at the right price. Buying Tulum indiscriminately is a bad investment strategy today; buying a proven asset after the market has already disappointed its previous owner can still make very good sense.

The biggest change is that Tulum no longer rewards a lazy thesis.

The residential market built far faster than demand could absorb. Annual sales fell roughly 51% between 2023 and 2025. Official hotel occupancy is currently much weaker than a year ago. Tulum Airport passenger traffic fell 33.2% during the latest available first-half comparison. Average Airbnb nightly rates are down 23%.

Meanwhile, active property inventory remains heavy. Aldea Zama alone has more than 1,700 apartments listed for sale in the latest Propiedades.com market snapshot, while La Veleta has more than 1,000.

Those conditions make generic presales, expensive studios and properties dependent on aggressive Airbnb assumptions hard to defend.

The other side of the market is much more interesting. Tulum still has a large tourism economy, permanent infrastructure and international recognition. AirDNA still measures meaningful short-term rental revenue. Some neighborhoods are holding their prices considerably better than others. Owners who need to sell are now competing for a much smaller pool of buyers.

So we would currently focus on completed properties, verified legal status, good micro-locations, real rental histories and sellers willing to negotiate. For a pure investment, we would want conservative cash flow to support roughly a 5%-6% unlevered return without needing future appreciation to make the deal work. A stronger discount can push that return higher.

A lifestyle buyer who plans to use the property for many years has more room to compromise on yield. Someone buying solely because "Tulum always goes up" has almost no margin for error.

Tulum property can still be worth buying now. The opportunity has moved from betting on Tulum itself to finding the individual property that the current market has priced badly.

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Who is the author of this content?

THE LATINVESTOR

A team specialized in real estate investing in LATAM countries

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Tulum. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.