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SUMMARY
Tulum condo prices are still falling overall, but the broad crash phase looks largely over. The market is now splitting between neighborhoods that are still repricing, areas that have gone flat, and a few pockets where asking prices are rising again.
The headline change is much smaller than the earlier collapse. Tulum apartment asking prices are roughly 2% below early-2025 levels, after AMPI Tulum reported a 47.6% condominium-price drop between 2023 and 2025.
The neighborhood spread is now more useful than the citywide average. Lúum Zama and Tumben Kaa are still down, Aldea Zama is almost flat, while La Veleta and Region 15 Kukulcan are above their early-2025 asking-price levels.
That does not mean sellers have regained control. Transaction activity remains weak: annual residential sales fell from 3,487 in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, while average monthly absorption per development also dropped sharply.
The biggest drag is still supply. Historical construction data, project trackers and live developer catalogs all point to thousands of units competing for a buyer, which makes it difficult for a broad price recovery to gain traction.
Advertised prices also understate how soft the market can be. Developers can preserve brochure prices while offering better financing, furniture, closing-cost support or cash discounts, and motivated resale owners often have to compete more directly on price.
Aldea Zama is a good example of why “stable” does not mean tight. Its asking-price trend is almost flat, but the volume of apartment listings still gives buyers a lot of substitutes and keeps negotiation leverage high.
La Veleta shows the opposite tension. Asking sale prices have rebounded, but rental asking prices have weakened, so the neighborhood can look better on a price chart while becoming less attractive to a yield-driven buyer.
Rental and tourism data remain an important brake on the investment case. Hotel occupancy has fallen, vacation-rental occupancy has weakened, and AirDNA’s smaller Tulum sample also points to lower revenue and RevPAR.
The most likely path from here is not another synchronized 20% crash across Tulum. It is a messy buyer’s market where the broad median moves sideways while weaker condos, oversupplied studios, distressed resales and poorly positioned projects keep getting cheaper.
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Are Tulum condo prices still falling today?
Yes, Tulum condo prices are still falling overall, but the decline has slowed dramatically and several important neighborhoods have already stopped going down.
The latest Propiedades.com market series puts Tulum apartment asking prices about 2% below their early-2025 level. That is still a decline, but it looks very different from the brutal correction that came before it. AMPI Tulum reported a 47.6% drop in condominium prices between 2023 and 2025.
The more interesting part is what is happening underneath that Tulum-wide average. Lúum Zama is currently down 11.4% from early 2025. Tumben Kaa is down 7.2%. Aldea Zama is almost perfectly flat at -0.4%. Meanwhile, La Veleta is up 9.1% and Region 15 Kukulcan is up 6%.
We should be careful with those figures because Propiedades.com mainly captures advertised market values rather than a complete database of closed transactions. Still, the dispersion is too large to ignore. Sellers across Tulum are no longer lowering prices together.
The current picture is fairly clear. Tulum has moved beyond the stage where almost every condo segment was repricing downward. Some parts of the market are still correcting hard, while others appear to be testing a floor.
| Tulum condo market | Change since early 2025 | Current median asking price | Median asking price/m² | What we see now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulum overall | -2.0% | — | — | Mild decline |
| Lúum Zama | -11.4% | MXN 4.93M | MXN 49,700 | Still falling |
| Tumben Kaa | -7.2% | MXN 3.07M | MXN 38,800 | Still falling |
| Aldea Zama | -0.4% | MXN 5.03M | MXN 46,100 | Basically flat |
| La Veleta | +9.1% | MXN 3.25M | MXN 43,200 | Asking prices rebounding |
| Region 15 Kukulcan | +6.0% | MXN 3.44M | MXN 45,900 | Asking prices rebounding |
How bad was the Tulum condo crash before prices started stabilizing?
The Tulum condo correction was severe: AMPI Tulum says condominium prices fell 47.6% between 2023 and 2025.
That number explains why today's small movements can be deceptive. A market that has already lost nearly half its value does not need another 20% annual decline to remain weak.
Mario San Miguel, president of AMPI Tulum, gave the 47.6% figure to El Economista when describing what happened after the post-pandemic buying frenzy. More than 80% of the condos marketed during the boom years had reportedly been sold in presale, which made Tulum especially vulnerable once speculative demand cooled.
Another InfoHabitat study gives us useful context. It found that residential sale prices in Tulum still rose 39% between 2021 and 2025, even though condominium prices suffered that much sharper 2023-to-2025 fall.
Those figures can coexist because the starting points are different. Prices rose enormously from the earlier pandemic period, peaked later, and then corrected. A condo bought near the top could have lost a large amount even while a broader residential index remained above its 2021 level.
So there are really two stages here: a speculative run-up followed by a very deep correction, then the slower phase we are in now, where the question is whether prices settle or keep bleeding lower.
| Period | Market evidence | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|
| 2021–2025 | Tulum residential prices +39% | Prices still ended above earlier-cycle levels |
| 2021–2025 | Construction costs +47% | Building became much more expensive |
| 2023–2025 | Tulum condo prices -47.6% | The investor-condo segment suffered a major reset |
| Early 2025–today | Tulum apartment asking prices around -2% | The pace of decline has slowed sharply |
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Why do some reports say Tulum property prices are rising?
Some Tulum property reports look bullish because they measure a broader housing market than the investor condo market people usually mean when they ask about Tulum prices.
Mexico's Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal has continued to report rising home prices across Quintana Roo. Those figures come largely from mortgage-financed transactions throughout the state.
That is a very different pool of properties from the Tulum condos bought by international investors. Many Tulum deals are paid in cash, through developer financing or through structures used by foreign buyers in Mexico's restricted coastal zone. The mix also includes far more vacation-oriented apartments than a statewide mortgage index does.
This is why a rising Quintana Roo housing index can sit alongside depressed Tulum condo resales without either dataset being “wrong.” They are looking at different markets.
Tulum also lacks a clean public repeat-sales index comparable with the Case-Shiller index in the United States. We have to reconstruct the market from asking-price histories, developer inventories, broker evidence, sales volumes, rental performance and local studies.
That makes individual numbers less trustworthy than the pattern created when several independent datasets move together. Right now, those datasets point to the same broad story: the huge correction already happened, but oversupply and weak liquidity are still keeping pressure on many condos.
Are people actually buying Tulum condos again?
Tulum condo sales remain far too weak to call this a healthy recovery.
InfoHabitat, using Softec and tourism data, counted 3,487 residential sales in Tulum in 2023. By 2025, annual sales had fallen to 1,711. That is roughly a 51% decline in two years.
The amount sold by each development also weakened. Average monthly absorption fell from 1.4 homes per project in 2022 to 0.9 in 2025.
This is one of the strongest pieces of evidence in the whole market because transaction activity usually tells us more than optimistic listing prices. Owners can leave a condo advertised at $250,000 for months. A developer can keep the official price unchanged while quietly improving the payment plan. Neither means buyers are actually accepting that valuation.
Tulum currently has exactly that problem. Some asking-price indexes are stabilizing while completed sales remain much lower than during the boom.
A real recovery would look different: more transactions, faster absorption and less inventory sitting on the market. Until those changes appear together, flat asking prices deserve some skepticism.
| Demand measure | Earlier level | Later level | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual residential sales | 3,487 in 2023 | 1,711 in 2025 | About -51% |
| Monthly absorption per development | 1.4 in 2022 | 0.9 in 2025 | About -36% |
| Market reading | Strong boom-era demand | Much slower turnover | Buyers remain selective |
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Is Tulum still flooded with unsold condos?
Yes. Tulum still has far too many condos chasing too few buyers, and oversupply remains the biggest obstacle to a broad price recovery.
The growth was enormous. According to the recent InfoHabitat analysis reported by El Economista, the number of homes under construction in Tulum rose from 1,466 in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023.
Available inventory also jumped. Tulum had 3,243 homes for sale in 2019 and 6,340 by 2023.
A separate Property Tracker study from The Red Search later counted 303 active pre-construction developments and 11,295 units of inventory in Tulum, the largest concentration in the Quintana Roo-Yucatán tourism corridor.
The freshest developer-fed catalog we found points in the same direction. Maya Ocean currently tracks 8,098 units across 435 Tulum developments, including 4,464 available condos. That database does not cover every resale in town, so it is better treated as a large live sample than a census.
What stands out is the consistency. Historical construction, regional project trackers and today's developer inventories all point to thousands of units competing for attention.
At the 2025 sales pace of 1,711 homes a year, even a few thousand excess units take a long time to clear. Sellers can stop cutting prices for a while without creating genuine scarcity. That is the awkward bit.
| Supply measure | Earlier figure | Later/current figure | Scale of the problem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes under construction | 1,466 in 2017 | 13,266 in 2023 | Massive construction boom |
| Homes for sale | 3,243 in 2019 | 6,340 in 2023 | Nearly doubled |
| Pre-construction inventory tracked by The Red Search | — | 11,295 units | Largest inventory in its regional dataset |
| Units tracked by Maya Ocean | — | 8,098 | Very large live developer sample |
| Available condos in that catalog | — | 4,464 | Heavy current competition |
Are Tulum sellers still giving big discounts?
Yes. Tulum buyers can still negotiate meaningful discounts even when the advertised price appears stable.
The adjustment has become harder to see in headline indexes because developers have more ways to reduce the effective price without rewriting the brochure.
A developer can offer better financing, stretch payment schedules, include furniture, cover certain closing expenses or discount a unit for a larger upfront payment. Individual owners have fewer tools, so motivated resellers usually compete through price.
That difference is especially important in Tulum because resale owners are now competing against both other owners and hundreds of new developments.
We also see a huge range inside individual neighborhoods. Propiedades.com currently shows one-bedroom and small two-bedroom units in places such as Tumben Kaa and Region 15 at prices far below the neighborhood median, while other sellers are still asking boom-style numbers for comparable floor areas.
A buyer who negotiates 10% below an advertised price has effectively created another price decline that a listing-price index may never capture.
So the visible -2% Tulum-wide change should not be read as “buyers only have 2% more negotiating power.” Effective transaction prices can be softer than advertised prices, particularly when the seller needs cash or the condo has many substitutes.
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Is Aldea Zama still getting cheaper?
Aldea Zama condo prices look broadly flat today, although owners still face intense competition from other sellers.
Propiedades.com's latest Aldea Zama series puts the median apartment asking price around MXN 5.03 million and approximately MXN 46,100 per square meter. The change since early 2025 is only -0.4%.
That is close enough to zero that we would call the neighborhood stable on advertised prices.
The catch is inventory. Propiedades.com recently counted roughly 1,700 apartment listings in Aldea Zama. Even allowing for duplicate or stale advertisements, buyers can compare an unusually large number of similar properties.
Aldea Zama therefore looks much healthier than Lúum Zama or Tumben Kaa on price direction, but sellers have hardly regained control of the market.
For a buyer today, the distinction is practical. Waiting six months no longer automatically means a much cheaper neighborhood median. It can still mean finding one owner who suddenly becomes very negotiable.
Is La Veleta recovering faster than the rest of Tulum?
La Veleta is currently one of the clearest examples of Tulum condo asking prices moving upward again.
Propiedades.com's latest series shows La Veleta apartment prices up 9.1% from early 2025, with a median around MXN 3.25 million and roughly MXN 43,200 per square meter.
The neighborhood therefore looks much stronger than the Tulum-wide -2% reading.
We should still resist calling La Veleta a full recovery. The same portal has tracked more than 1,000 available apartments there, so buyers continue to have plenty of choice. More importantly, rental asking prices have been weaker.
Propiedades.com recently showed La Veleta apartment rents down roughly 8.6% over a similar period. That creates an awkward combination for investors: the condo costs more to buy while the amount landlords can ask from tenants has fallen.
A market can live with that for a while, especially if buyers are purchasing for personal use. For yield-driven investors, rising sale prices alongside weaker rent makes the math less attractive.
La Veleta's rebound is real enough to take seriously. We simply have less evidence that the improvement is backed by stronger investment returns.
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Are Tulum rental returns still getting worse?
Yes. Tulum's rental market is still weak enough to put pressure on investment-condo values.
We found the same problem in three different datasets.
First, official tourism data from Quintana Roo's tourism observatory show Tulum hotel occupancy averaging 66.18% during the first half of 2026, down from 74.32% in the comparable period a year earlier. That 8.13-point drop was steeper than the decline across Quintana Roo as a whole.
Second, El Economista reported that Tulum's vacation-rental occupancy had fallen from 25% in 2024 to about 20.5% in 2025, while available rental nights increased from 3.1 million to 3.2 million. The same report counted more than 11,000 vacation-rental units across more than 565 condominium or residential complexes.
Third, AirDNA's latest Tulum sample remains weak. Its current dashboard shows annual revenue down 39% year over year, occupancy around 30% and RevPAR down 24.4%. AirDNA's visible “Tulum, Default” sample is much smaller than the entire local rental market, so we would not use its absolute figures to describe every Airbnb in Tulum. The direction still supports what the broader tourism data are already telling us.
Weak rental economics matter here because so much of the condo boom was sold around projected vacation-rental income. If rents disappoint, investors become less willing to pay premium prices.
| Rental/tourism measure | Earlier reading | Latest reading | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulum hotel occupancy | 74.32% | 66.18% | Down 8.13 points |
| Vacation-rental occupancy reported by industry data | 25% | 20.5% | Down |
| Available vacation-rental nights | 3.1M | 3.2M | Supply still growing |
| AirDNA annual revenue | — | -39% YoY | Weak |
| AirDNA RevPAR | — | -24.4% YoY | Weak |
Didn't Tulum Airport and the Maya Train create more property demand?
Tulum Airport and the Maya Train improved access, but they have not created enough demand to absorb the condo glut.
The timing of the building boom explains a lot. Developers were already selling thousands of units on the assumption that better infrastructure would bring more tourists, residents and investors.
Much of that expectation entered condo prices before the infrastructure was fully operating.
Then supply exploded. The number of homes under construction climbed above 13,000 during the boom, while annual residential sales later fell below 2,000.
The tourism numbers also make it hard to argue that connectivity has already fixed the demand problem. Tulum's official hotel occupancy is currently well below its comparable year-earlier level even with the airport and railway operating.
Infrastructure can still help Tulum over a five- or ten-year period. An international airport near the city is plainly useful. The Maya Train also gives travelers another way to move through the Yucatán Peninsula.
For condo owners today, though, those long-term advantages have not yet translated into enough incremental demand to clear the existing inventory.
The airport story is simply much less powerful as a pricing argument than it sounded during the presale boom.
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Why are some Tulum neighborhoods rising while others keep falling?
Tulum condo prices are splitting because buyers have become much pickier about location, product quality and how many nearly identical units compete nearby.
The neighborhood spread is now large enough to show this clearly. Lúum Zama at -11.4% and La Veleta at +9.1% are separated by more than 20 percentage points over the same broad period.
During the boom, many buyers purchased remotely from renders and sales decks. More than 80% of the post-pandemic condos cited by AMPI were sold in presale. That environment allowed very different developments to rise together because buyers were paying for the Tulum growth story.
Today's buyer has far more inventory to compare.
A finished apartment with established roads, proven building management, decent utilities and a track record of occupancy can command a very different price from an unfinished or poorly maintained unit only a few kilometers away.
The same goes for size. Tulum accumulated huge numbers of studios and one-bedroom apartments aimed at vacation rentals. Those units compete directly with each other, so pricing gets brutal whenever occupancy weakens.
This fragmentation will probably become more important from here. The broad “Tulum price” tells us less today than it did during the boom because the market is finally discriminating between good and bad properties.
Could Tulum condo prices fall another 20%?
A further 20% market-wide fall looks unlikely from today's starting point, but plenty of individual Tulum condos could still lose that much.
The market-wide evidence has changed. Asking prices are only mildly negative overall, Aldea Zama has flattened, and areas such as La Veleta and Region 15 are currently higher than they were in early 2025.
Another 20% drop across Tulum would probably require something worse than the slow absorption we already know about: a major tourism shock, widespread developer distress, a surge in forced resales or another large deterioration in foreign demand.
Individual units are a different story.
Imagine a small investor condo bought near the peak, surrounded by comparable Airbnbs, with weak rental income and an owner who wants out. The relevant price is whatever clears the market, even if the owner originally paid much more.
Tulum's enormous inventory makes those situations unavoidable. A buyer can often walk away from one property and find another that looks very similar.
That puts a ceiling on how aggressively owners can hold their ground.
So we would not wait for a second Tulum-wide crash as the base case. The more realistic risk today is highly uneven downside: the broader median goes sideways while weaker condos keep repricing significantly lower.
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Has the Tulum condo market finally hit the bottom?
Tulum condo prices appear to be forming a bottom, but the market has not given us enough evidence to say the bottom is fully established.
The price data are the encouraging part. The broad decline has slowed to roughly 2%, Aldea Zama is flat, and several major areas are rising again.
The demand side is much less convincing. Annual sales remain far below their 2023 level. Absorption is slow. Thousands of units remain available. Hotel occupancy has weakened sharply, and vacation-rental economics are still under pressure.
Those pieces need to improve before we can confidently call a durable recovery.
We would want to see sales move higher for more than one period, inventory come down materially and rents stop deteriorating. Ideally, those changes would happen while neighborhoods that have already stabilized continue holding their prices.
For now, the evidence fits an uneven bottoming process.
That distinction matters for buyers. Waiting for “Tulum” as a whole to flash a perfect bottom may not be useful because individual buildings will turn at different times. A strong finished property may already have stopped falling while an oversupplied studio project still has another round of discounting ahead.
So, are Tulum condo prices still falling?
Yes, but the big Tulum condo crash appears to be largely behind us. Today's market is a slower, much more selective correction.
AMPI's 47.6% decline between 2023 and 2025 tells us how violent the reset became. The latest data tell us something different about where the market is heading from here.
Tulum apartment asking prices are currently only about 2% below their early-2025 level. Lúum Zama and Tumben Kaa remain weak. Aldea Zama has flattened. La Veleta and Region 15 are moving higher.
Meanwhile, the underlying market still looks soft. Sales roughly halved between 2023 and 2025. Project absorption dropped. Thousands of units remain available, and the rental market is having a difficult year.
Those conditions give buyers leverage and make another wave of large discounts entirely plausible for weak properties.
Our conclusion is fairly sharp: Tulum condo prices are no longer falling everywhere, and another broad collapse is no longer the most likely outcome. Buyers should not mistake stabilization for a strong market.
The easiest part of the correction may already be over for anyone waiting for every condo in Tulum to become dramatically cheaper. The opportunity now sits in the gaps between properties: distressed resales, weak projects, overloaded studio inventory and owners who still expect boom-era economics.
Tulum has probably passed the crash phase. It has not yet passed the buyer's-market phase.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Tulum condo prices are still falling by separating the market into the main forces that can confirm or contradict a price correction: current asking-price direction, transaction activity and absorption, available supply, rental-market performance, neighborhood divergence, and the effect of major demand drivers such as Tulum Airport and the Maya Train.
We do not treat every dataset as interchangeable. Propiedades.com is used mainly for live asking-price direction and neighborhood comparisons, while InfoHabitat and Softec data are used for sales, absorption, construction and historical inventory. Statewide SHF housing-price data are treated as broader context rather than a substitute for Tulum condo evidence.
We give more weight to transaction and absorption data when judging whether a recovery is real. Asking prices can stabilize even when sellers are waiting a long time for buyers, developers are improving payment terms, or effective transaction prices are lower than the advertised number.
Supply is tested through several independent views rather than one inventory count. Historical construction and for-sale inventory come from InfoHabitat reporting, pre-construction supply comes from The Red Search's Tulum Property Tracker, and Maya Ocean is used as a large live developer-fed sample of current projects and available units.
Rental economics are used as a supporting test because a large part of Tulum's condo boom was sold around vacation-rental income. Official hotel occupancy from Quintana Roo's tourism information system is read alongside reported vacation-rental occupancy and supply data from El Economista and the current AirDNA Tulum dashboards.
Neighborhood-level movements are interpreted separately from the Tulum-wide average. A broad median can look stable while one area is still falling and another is rebounding, so the analysis compares Lúum Zama, Tumben Kaa, Aldea Zama, La Veleta and Region 15 Kukulcan rather than assuming a single price direction applies to every condo.
Infrastructure is treated as a demand factor, not as proof of demand by itself. The official Tulum Airport project information and Maya Train operating schedules confirm the connectivity improvements, while sales, occupancy and inventory data are used to test whether those improvements have actually absorbed the existing condo supply.
Key sources used for this analysis include: Propiedades.com on Lúum Zama, Propiedades.com on Tumben Kaa, Propiedades.com on Aldea Zama, Propiedades.com on La Veleta sale prices, Propiedades.com on Region 15 Kukulcan, Propiedades.com on La Veleta rents, El Economista / EconoHábitat on the 2023–2025 condo correction, El Economista / EconoHábitat on Tulum supply, sales and absorption, El Economista on vacation-rental occupancy and supply, Quintana Roo's tourism information system on hotel occupancy, AirDNA's Tulum “Default” sample, AirDNA's broader Tulum market page, Maya Ocean's live Tulum condo inventory, Maya Ocean's broader Tulum development catalog, The Red Search Tulum Property Tracker, Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal's housing-price-index publication hub, SHF's second-quarter 2026 housing-price release, the official Tulum International Airport project page, the Diario Oficial declaration establishing the airport as an international aerodrome, and the official Tren Maya operating schedules.
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