
Get all the data you need about the real estate market in Tulum
SUMMARY
Yes. Property prices are finally falling in parts of Tulum, especially in the investment-condo market, although there is still no single correction percentage that describes the whole city.
The headline decline is deceptively mild. Average apartment asking prices are only about 2% below early-2025 levels, while individual neighborhoods range from declines above 20% to increases close to 10%.
The clearest deterioration is happening beneath asking prices. Annual home sales fell roughly 51% between 2023 and 2025, meaning buyers disappeared much faster than sellers adjusted their advertised prices.
Tulum's supply problem is unusually large. Construction expanded from 1,466 homes in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023, while for-sale inventory nearly doubled between 2019 and 2023.
The weakest part of the market is not necessarily the cheapest. Small studios and compact one-bedroom condos built around Airbnb returns are vulnerable because thousands of similar units are competing for the same buyers and guests.
Rental economics have weakened faster than sale prices. Tulum apartment rents are down about 5.6% since early 2025, compared with roughly 2% for apartment asking prices, putting additional pressure on investor yields.
Airbnb is no longer providing the easy valuation support it did during the boom. Active listings have more than doubled over three years while median annual revenue is lower, so owners are competing harder for less revenue per property.
The tourism picture is also weaker than the real-estate marketing story suggests. Hotel occupancy fell again in the first half of 2026, and Tulum airport passenger traffic was down roughly one-third from a year earlier despite the airport having been one of the market's major bullish narratives.
Aldea Zamá and La Veleta show why broad averages need care. Aldea Zamá prices are almost flat, while La Veleta asking prices are up even as rents there have fallen sharply. Some neighborhoods are holding their sticker prices while their underlying investment economics deteriorate.
Tulum is now much closer to a buyer's market than it was during the boom. Large inventories and weak transaction volumes give buyers more time to compare finished units, inspect documents, negotiate incentives and simply walk away from mediocre deals.
The market may already be near a floor for distinctive, completed properties in established locations, but generic investment condos can still have further to adjust. Tulum looks more like a long, uneven cleanup of the boom than a clean citywide crash followed by an obvious rebound.
Are Tulum property prices actually falling now?
Yes. Tulum property prices are finally falling in parts of the market that matter, especially investment condos, but the correction is much more uneven than the word “crash” suggests.
The freshest broad asking-price data from Propiedades.com show average Tulum apartment prices about 2% lower than in early 2025. That sounds small. Look one level deeper, though, and the picture changes quickly. Las Palmas is down 24.3%, Guerra de Castas 15%, Lúum Zamá 11.4% and Tumben Kaa 7.2%. At the same time, La Veleta is up 9.1%, Villas Tulum 10.7% and Aldea Zamá is almost unchanged at -0.4%.
That spread tells us more than a single Tulum average. Sellers are no longer benefiting from the synchronized rise that defined the boom years. Some projects and neighborhoods can still hold their prices, while weaker pockets are already repricing quite hard.
| Tulum apartment market | Change since early 2025 | Current average asking price | Active listings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulum overall | -2.0% | — | — |
| Las Palmas | -24.3% | MXN 3.05M | 15 |
| Guerra de Castas | -15.0% | MXN 3.77M | 60 |
| Lúum Zamá | -11.4% | MXN 4.93M | 53 |
| Tumben Kaa | -7.2% | MXN 3.07M | 101 |
| Aldea Zamá | -0.4% | MXN 5.03M | 1,715 |
| Región 15 Kukulcan | +6.0% | MXN 3.44M | 357 |
| La Veleta | +9.1% | MXN 3.25M | 1,061 |
Why do people give completely different numbers for Tulum property prices?
Tulum property prices look contradictory because the available datasets are measuring different properties, different transaction types and sometimes different stages of the development cycle.
One widely repeated figure comes from Mario San Miguel, president of AMPI Tulum, who said condominium prices fell 47.6% between 2023 and 2025. Meanwhile, InfoHabitat, using Softec data, found residential selling prices increased 39% between 2021 and 2025. Current portal data show apartment asking prices down only around 2% since early 2025. All three can exist at the same time without describing the same basket of properties.
Tulum has an unusually messy housing market for statistical purposes. A presale studio sold to a foreign investor, a completed resale in Aldea Zamá, a villa, local housing financed with a mortgage and a beachfront property can all enter datasets in completely different ways. Average prices can also jump simply because the mix of units changes.
The 47.6% figure is therefore useful as evidence that part of the condo market went through a brutal correction. We would be much more cautious about saying that the typical Tulum property lost 47.6% of its value. There is no public repeat-sales index strong enough to support that claim.
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What broke the Tulum real estate boom?
Tulum's real estate boom broke when construction kept accelerating after the market had already lost the ability to absorb all those new homes.
InfoHabitat's recent analysis using Softec data shows how extreme the expansion became. Tulum had 1,466 homes under construction in 2017. By 2023, that number had reached 13,266. Inventory available for sale rose from 3,243 homes in 2019 to 6,340 in 2023.
Demand then moved the other way. Annual sales fell from 3,487 units in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, a decline of roughly 51%. Monthly absorption per development went from 1.4 units in 2022 to 0.9 in 2025.
Put those numbers together and the scale becomes easier to see. The 6,340 homes that were for sale in 2023 equal about 3.7 years of sales at the 2025 pace. The 13,266 units that were under construction in 2023 equal almost eight years of 2025 sales, although obviously those homes do not all reach the market at once.
Tulum effectively built for a continuation of boom-era demand. That demand never arrived at the scale developers expected.
| Tulum housing indicator | Earlier level | Later level | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes under construction | 1,466 in 2017 | 13,266 in 2023 | +805% |
| For-sale inventory | 3,243 in 2019 | 6,340 in 2023 | +96% |
| Annual home sales | 3,487 in 2023 | 1,711 in 2025 | -51% |
| Monthly absorption per project | 1.4 in 2022 | 0.9 in 2025 | -36% |
Did Tulum condo prices really fall almost 48%?
Some Tulum condos may genuinely have lost close to half their peak value, but we would not use the 47.6% figure as the price decline for Tulum as a whole.
The number comes from AMPI Tulum president Mario San Miguel, who said condo prices dropped 47.6% between 2023 and 2025. He also estimated that more than 80% of post-pandemic condo sales happened in presale. That second figure helps explain why the correction could be so violent.
Presale markets can move much faster than mature resale markets. Developers can raise prices every few construction phases without having many real secondary-market transactions to validate those increases. When sentiment turns, the reverse can happen through lower launch prices, distressed resales, furniture packages, payment plans and discounts rather than through one clean price index.
There is another clue in the InfoHabitat data. Between 2021 and 2025, reported residential selling prices rose 39%, while construction costs increased 47%. Developers partly compensated by shrinking apartment sizes. A cheaper unit therefore does not automatically mean that the same square meter became cheaper.
AMPI seems to have captured a real collapse in the speculative end of Tulum's condo market. The exact 47.6% is better read as a segment estimate than as a universal markdown applied to every owner.
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Are Tulum sellers finally cutting their asking prices?
Yes, although Tulum sellers are cutting asking prices much more slowly than sales activity has deteriorated.
Propiedades.com's latest data put average Tulum apartment asking prices around 2% below early-2025 levels. Current listing data from TuLugar tell a similar story of a market that remains expensive despite its slowdown: apartments have a median asking price around $206,000 and roughly $2,743 per square meter.
The important comparison is with sales volume. A roughly 2% move in headline asking prices looks mild beside the 51% decline in annual sales between 2023 and 2025.
That gap is common when property markets turn. Owners can leave a condo advertised at yesterday's price for months. A transaction only happens once one seller becomes flexible enough to meet a buyer.
Today, Tulum's public listing prices probably understate some of the adjustment taking place in individual negotiations. They still tell us something useful: the broad market has stopped climbing even before every seller has fully repriced.
Is Tulum still seriously oversupplied?
Yes. Oversupply remains the biggest problem facing ordinary Tulum investment condos today.
The raw construction numbers already show the scale of the issue, but one lesser-known figure makes Tulum's situation more unusual. InfoHabitat estimates permanent housing occupancy at only 21% in Tulum, compared with 82% in Playa del Carmen and 89% in Cancún.
In practical terms, Tulum has far fewer permanent residents supporting its housing stock. A large share of homes therefore depends on tourists, second-home owners, remote workers and investors.
That makes excess construction harder to absorb. Cancún can add housing and draw on a large resident population. Playa del Carmen has a substantial local housing market as well. Tulum relies much more heavily on outsiders continuing to want another condo.
Annual sales have already halved from their recent peak. With only around one-fifth of housing permanently occupied, waiting for local population growth to absorb the excess would be a slow solution.
| Market | Estimated permanent housing occupancy |
|---|---|
| Cancún | 89% |
| Playa del Carmen | 82% |
| Tulum | 21% |
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Which Tulum properties are getting hurt the most?
Small, interchangeable Tulum investment condos are taking the most pressure because buyers and renters have too many similar alternatives.
The vulnerable product is easy to recognize. It is usually a studio or compact one-bedroom unit sold around projected Airbnb returns, appreciation and future infrastructure rather than around permanent local demand.
That segment expanded aggressively during the boom. AMPI estimates that more than 80% of post-pandemic condo sales were presales. At the same time, thousands of short-term rentals came onto the market.
A standardized 45-square-meter studio has very little protection when another development nearby offers a similar pool, rooftop and jungle aesthetic. Buyers can compare dozens of projects. Tourists can compare hundreds of rentals. One owner cuts the nightly rate or accepts a lower resale price, and comparable units suddenly have a new reference point.
Larger homes, unusual villas, prime land and genuinely scarce locations have more ways to differentiate themselves. Current portal data reinforce that split: Propiedades.com shows Tulum house asking prices up 5.5% since early 2025, while apartments are down around 2%.
The correction currently looks much more like a condo problem than a universal Tulum housing collapse.
Which Tulum neighborhoods are actually falling now?
Tulum's neighborhood data are all over the place right now, with declines above 20% in some pockets and increases close to 10% in several large condo areas.
The latest Propiedades.com figures are useful precisely because they show how dangerous a citywide average can be. Las Palmas apartment asking prices have fallen 24.3% since early 2025. Guerra de Castas is down 15%, Lúum Zamá 11.4% and Tumben Kaa 7.2%.
Yet La Veleta, one of Tulum's biggest investment-condo areas, is up 9.1%. Región 15 Kukulcan is up 6%. Aldea Zamá is effectively flat.
Sample size also matters. Las Palmas has only 15 active apartment listings in the dataset, so its -24.3% move deserves less confidence than La Veleta's figure, where more than 1,000 units are active. Tiny micro-markets can move dramatically when just a few different properties enter the sample.
For an actual purchase, comparing the building and its competing units is more useful than relying on a generic “Tulum is down X%” figure.
| Area | Apartment asking-price change | Active listings | How much confidence we put in it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | -24.3% | 15 | Low |
| Guerra de Castas | -15.0% | 60 | Moderate |
| Lúum Zamá | -11.4% | 53 | Moderate |
| Tumben Kaa | -7.2% | 101 | Moderate |
| Aldea Zamá | -0.4% | 1,715 | High |
| Región 15 Kukulcan | +6.0% | 357 | High |
| La Veleta | +9.1% | 1,061 | High |
| Villas Tulum | +10.7% | 92 | Moderate |
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Is Aldea Zamá still holding up better than Tulum?
Yes. Aldea Zamá is currently one of the clearest examples of a Tulum condo market that has softened without suffering a major headline price drop.
Propiedades.com puts the average Aldea Zamá apartment at roughly MXN 5.03 million and MXN 46,100 per square meter. Asking prices have slipped only 0.4% since early 2025, versus around 2% across Tulum apartments.
That relative strength makes sense. Aldea Zamá is established, widely recognized among foreign buyers and already has shops, restaurants, finished developments and a functioning resale market. Buyers know what the neighborhood looks like today rather than buying purely from a future-development pitch.
The rental side is weaker. Average long-term apartment rents in Aldea Zamá are down 7.4% over the same broad period and currently sit around MXN 24,600 per month.
That gap deserves attention. A property can keep its sale price for a while even as its income falls. Investors then accept a lower yield. If rents stay weak for long enough, future buyers usually start pushing harder on the purchase price too.
Are Tulum rents falling too?
Yes. Tulum apartment rents are currently falling faster than apartment asking prices, which makes today's investment math worse even where sale prices look stable.
Propiedades.com shows average apartment rents across Tulum down 5.6% since early 2025. La Veleta is down 8.6%, while Aldea Zamá is down 7.4%.
Compare that with apartment sale prices, which are down only around 2% across Tulum. Rental income has therefore deteriorated roughly three times as much as headline asking prices.
La Veleta is an especially interesting example. Its apartment asking prices are up 9.1% while apartment rents are down 8.6%. A hypothetical property following those two averages would have become more expensive to buy while generating less rent. Its gross rental yield would compress significantly.
Investors eventually care about that relationship. When rent no longer supports the asking price, the buyer either accepts a weaker return or negotiates a cheaper purchase. Tulum has enough competing inventory today that buyers have little reason to accept unattractive economics blindly.
| Apartment market | Sale-price change | Rent change | Direction for rental yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulum overall | -2.0% | -5.6% | Weaker |
| Aldea Zamá | -0.4% | -7.4% | Weaker |
| La Veleta | +9.1% | -8.6% | Much weaker |
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Is Airbnb still supporting Tulum condo prices?
Airbnb is providing much less support to Tulum condo valuations than it did during the boom.
Airbtics' 2026 market dataset counted 6,635 active Tulum Airbnb listings. That was 23.4% more than a year earlier and 126.8% more than three years earlier.
Demand economics moved in the opposite direction. Median occupancy was 47%, down 14.6% over three years. Median annual revenue was MXN 237,000, down 17.3% over three years even though the median nightly rate had recently increased.
The combination is rough for owners: more than twice as many listings are competing for guests, yet the typical property is producing less annual revenue than three years earlier.
There is also fresh local evidence that short-term rentals remain extremely numerous. A separate Tulum Times analysis counted 5,119 active vacation-rental units using another dataset. The absolute totals differ because providers define active inventory differently, but both sources point to thousands of units competing for tourists.
For a simple sense of scale, take Airbtics' MXN 237,000 median annual revenue. A MXN 4 million condo would produce gross rental revenue equivalent to about 5.9% of its purchase price before management fees, HOA fees, electricity, maintenance, platform costs, furnishing replacement, tax and vacant periods.
A buyer can still make Airbnb work with a strong unit and professional operation. The old assumption that almost any Tulum condo naturally generates a high passive return is much harder to defend now.
| Tulum Airbnb metric | Current level | 1-year change | 3-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 6,635 | +23.4% | +126.8% |
| Median occupancy | 47% | -6.0% | -14.6% |
| Median annual revenue | MXN 237K | +2.5% | -17.3% |
| Median nightly rate | MXN 1,355 | +9.5% | -2.4% |
Is weaker tourism now hurting Tulum real estate?
Yes. Tulum tourism has weakened enough lately to remove another layer of support from a housing market that depends heavily on visitors.
Official Quintana Roo tourism statistics show Tulum hotel occupancy falling from 73.8% in 2024 to 69.1% in 2025. During the first half of 2026, occupancy dropped again to 66.18%, compared with 74.32% during the same period a year earlier.
That latest decline is particularly striking because it is much worse than the statewide change. Quintana Roo's overall occupancy fell 2.95 percentage points during the first half of the year. Tulum fell 8.13 points.
Playa del Carmen was down 4.47 points. Cancún declined only 2.02. Tulum therefore underperformed both of the Riviera Maya's larger tourism markets.
A normal residential city could absorb weaker tourism without much impact on housing. Tulum's unusually low permanent housing occupancy makes the connection much tighter. Fewer tourists mean more pressure on hotels, Airbnbs, rental revenue and eventually the prices investors are willing to pay for rental properties.
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Did the new Tulum airport rescue property demand?
No. Tulum's new airport has improved access to the destination, but current passenger numbers are far too weak to argue that it has rescued real estate demand.
Federal aviation data show Tulum airport handled about 471,500 passengers during the first half of 2026, down 33.2% from roughly 705,400 during the same period a year earlier.
International traffic deteriorated even more. It dropped 40.8%, from about 417,600 passengers to 247,100. In June alone, total passenger traffic was 44.8% lower than a year earlier.
Those declines are especially useful because the airport was one of the major bullish arguments used to sell Tulum real estate before and after its opening. Better accessibility is valuable over the long run, and direct flights from major cities clearly make Tulum easier to reach. But developers had already marketed that future connectivity aggressively.
Now we can test the promise using actual passenger behavior. So far, the airport has not created the sustained demand surge needed to absorb Tulum's excess condo inventory.
Why are Quintana Roo home prices rising if Tulum is struggling?
Quintana Roo can still report rising home prices while Tulum investment condos correct because the state housing market is far broader than Tulum's speculative condo segment.
Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal's housing index recently showed strong annual appreciation across Quintana Roo. That measure primarily captures homes purchased with mortgage financing.
Tulum's boom had a very different structure. Foreign buyers, cash transactions, developer financing and presales played a much larger role than they do in a conventional Mexican mortgage market. AMPI's estimate that more than 80% of post-pandemic Tulum condo sales occurred in presale shows how far the local market moved away from a normal financed-housing sample.
The state index also mixes Tulum with Cancún, Playa del Carmen, Chetumal and other parts of Quintana Roo. Those places have different resident populations, inventory levels and buyer profiles.
So the statewide appreciation number does not make Tulum's correction imaginary. It tells us the weakness is concentrated rather than part of a general housing crash across Quintana Roo.
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Is Tulum a buyer's market now?
Yes. Mainstream Tulum condos are currently in a buyer's market, even when the advertised price still looks stubbornly high.
The biggest change is choice. A buyer looking for a one-bedroom investment condo can compare large inventories in Aldea Zamá, La Veleta, Región 15 and several newer areas. Propiedades.com currently tracks 1,715 active apartment listings in Aldea Zamá alone and another 1,061 in La Veleta.
That volume of competition changes conversations with developers and resale owners. Buyers can walk away from a mediocre deal because another similar unit is usually available. Developers can compete through payment terms, furnishings and discounts. Resale owners who actually need liquidity have to compete against both other owners and new projects.
The 51% fall in annual sales is the hard part to ignore. Buyers disappeared much faster than published asking prices fell.
This is probably the clearest practical change for anyone buying today. During the boom, missing a unit could mean watching the next phase launch at a higher price. Now there is far less urgency, which gives buyers time to inspect legal documents, compare completed units, negotiate and reject unrealistic projected returns.
Have Tulum property prices already hit the bottom?
We cannot confidently call the bottom in Tulum yet, although the market is much closer to a believable floor than it was two years ago.
There are reasons to think the worst repricing has already happened in some projects. The AMPI estimate points to a major 2023–2025 condo correction. Current asking-price data show Aldea Zamá almost flat and large markets such as La Veleta actually rising. Developers also have far less incentive today to launch endless projects under the assumption that buyers will absorb everything.
The demand side is still too weak for a broad “bottom is in” call. Hotel occupancy has fallen sharply again. Airbnb supply remains huge. Tulum airport passenger traffic is currently down by one-third. Long-term apartment rents have softened. Several different parts of the investment case are still under pressure at once.
We also have to distinguish between price and liquidity. A seller can keep asking MXN 5 million for a condo even if no one wants to pay MXN 5 million. The true bottom only becomes convincing once properties start clearing at stable prices without developers and owners needing increasingly generous incentives.
Our base case is a long, uneven stabilization rather than another universal collapse. Good properties can bottom early. Generic condos with weak rental economics may still have more adjusting to do.
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Are property prices finally falling in Tulum?
Yes. Tulum property prices are finally falling where the market was most speculative, while stronger properties and neighborhoods are proving much more resilient.
The evidence is now broad enough to move beyond anecdotes. Apartment asking prices are down about 2% overall, but several pockets show double-digit declines. Annual home sales fell roughly in half from their recent peak. Long-term apartment rents are weaker. Airbnb inventory has more than doubled over three years while median revenue has declined. Hotel occupancy has deteriorated again, and the new airport is currently carrying far fewer passengers than a year ago.
The correction still refuses to fit into one neat percentage. La Veleta apartment asking prices are up. Aldea Zamá is close to flat. Tulum houses have broadly held up better than apartments. At the other end, some smaller condo markets have posted declines of 10%, 15% or more than 20%.
That pattern gives us a fairly clear answer. Tulum is going through a real property correction concentrated in the investment-condo market that expanded fastest during the boom. Calling the entire city a collapsing market goes too far. Calling today's weakness temporary or cosmetic is harder to defend.
For buyers, this is already a very different Tulum. The city still has attractive properties, international tourism, new transport infrastructure and long-term appeal. But buyers no longer need to assume that every condo will appreciate simply because it is in Tulum.
The boom rewarded being early. Today's market rewards being selective.
OUR METHODOLOGY
Whether Tulum property prices are really falling sounds like a simple question, but the answer becomes surprisingly unclear once different price estimates, property types, neighborhoods and market narratives are put side by side.
Rather than rely on one headline statistic, we broke the question into the parts that can confirm or contradict each other: current apartment and house pricing, neighborhood dispersion, construction and for-sale inventory, transaction activity, long-term rents, short-term rental performance, tourism demand, airport traffic and the broader Quintana Roo housing market.
For each part, we prioritized the freshest available evidence and the data most directly connected to the question. We assessed those datasets separately before looking at how they fit together. Where apparently contradictory numbers appeared, we checked what each source was actually measuring rather than trying to force everything into one Tulum-wide percentage.
That distinction is particularly important here. A portal asking-price series, an AMPI estimate for condos, Softec residential selling-price data and the SHF mortgage-financed housing index describe different slices of the market. We therefore use each for the question it can reasonably answer rather than treating the figures as interchangeable.
We also gave more weight to large samples and direct market or official data. Neighborhood moves based on more than 1,000 active listings deserve more confidence than large percentage changes in areas with only a few dozen properties. Extreme moves in small markets are included because they are useful, but they are not allowed to dominate the citywide conclusion.
The supply-demand analysis uses the InfoHabitat/Softec figures for construction, inventory, annual sales, project absorption, housing occupancy and construction costs. Those figures help test whether changes in advertised prices are consistent with the amount of housing Tulum has built and the pace at which buyers are actually absorbing it.
Rental economics provide a second check. Long-term rent data from Propiedades.com and short-term rental data from Airbtics allow us to compare property prices with the income those properties can realistically support. That is especially relevant in Tulum because so much of the condo market was sold as an investment rather than as permanent local housing.
Tourism and transport data are used as demand checks rather than direct property-price measures. Official hotel occupancy from SEDETUR and airport statistics from AFAC and DataTur show whether the visitor growth assumed in many Tulum investment pitches is actually appearing in current travel activity.
The conclusion therefore does not depend on one price index, one expert quote or one unusually weak neighborhood. It comes from combining several recent and largely independent datasets and then checking whether prices, transaction volumes, rents, rental performance, tourism and supply are moving in a direction that makes sense together.
Key sources used for this analysis include Propiedades.com for the Tulum apartment market, Las Palmas apartment data, Guerra de Castas apartment data, Lúum Zamá apartment data, Tumben Kaa apartment data, Aldea Zamá sales data, La Veleta sales data, Villas Tulum apartment data, Región 15 Kukulcan apartment data, Tulum apartment-rent data, Aldea Zamá rent data, La Veleta rent data, Airbtics for Tulum short-term rental performance, SEDETUR Quintana Roo for hotel occupancy, AFAC for airport operational statistics, DataTur for airport passenger data, Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal for the broader housing-price benchmark, El Economista's reporting on the InfoHabitat/Softec oversupply analysis, and El Economista's AMPI Tulum interview with Mario San Miguel.
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