Summary
Yes. Tulum rental returns are getting worse: Airbtics puts the median Airbnb at MXN 231,000 (about $12,400) a year, down 10.8% in three years, while active listings more than doubled.
The trend isn't one bad number. Over three years, Airbtics shows listings up 106.5% and occupancy down 20.4% to 43%.
Headline averages can fool you. AirDNA's average revenue per listing is up 60.5%, but its listing count fell 73.1%, and comparable revenue per available night (RevPAR) is down 10.7% to $58.
Hosts are buying bookings with lower prices. AirDNA's average nightly rate is down 23.6% in a year to $125.
The condo boom built the competition. Airbtics counted 1,379 new Tulum listings in 2025 alone, while yearly home sales fell from 3,487 in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025.
Tourists are fewer too. Tulum hotel occupancy averaged 63.69% from January to July 2026, against 72.67% a year earlier, and fell to 42.3% in one September week.
Prices have dropped, but not everywhere. The median condo is listed around $213,000 on TuLugar, and the same $18,000 of rent is a 6% gross yield at $300,000 but 10% at $180,000.
A normal condo now makes about 8.2% gross on AirDNA's average, or 5.8% on Airbtics' median. After management, platform fees and HOA, AirDNA's $17,400 shrinks to about $10,300, or 4.8%, and to about $6,000, or 2.8%, after a non-resident's 25% tax on gross rent, before utilities and repairs.
A 10% net return is no longer a base case. On a $200,000 condo with 35% costs, you'd need about $30,800 of bookings a year before tax, or about $50,000 for a non-resident paying 25% of gross, far above any market average.
Long-term rental is now a real alternative. TuLugar's median condo rent of $982 a month gives about 5.5% gross on the median price, with fewer costs, though rents are falling too.
The gap between properties is huge. In an April 2025 Airbtics report, similar one-bedrooms near Aldea Zamá earned from about $14,000 to more than $29,000 a year.
The airport isn't saving anyone. Passengers fell 33.2% in the first half of 2026, Aeroméxico left on September 30 and Volaris stops flying to Tulum from January 7, 2027.
Rules add costs. Every rental needs state and municipal licences and RETUR-Q registration, fines can top MXN 100,000 (about $5,380), and income tax runs from 4% withheld for hosts with a valid RFC to 25% of gross rent for non-residents.
Bottom line: Tulum Airbnb still works for a good unit bought cheaply, but a generic condo bought at boom prices won't be rescued by the destination anymore. Buy on real booking history, not projections.
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Message a proHow much have Tulum rental returns dropped?
About 11% over three years for the typical Airbnb. Airbtics puts median revenue at MXN 231,000 (about $12,400) for the 12 months to August 2026, down 3.7% in a year and 10.8% in three.
The cause is supply, not prices. Airbtics' median nightly rate is actually up 10.7% over three years to MXN 1,424 (about $77), but occupancy fell 20.4% to 43% while active listings rose 106.5% to 6,543. More than twice the Airbnbs, each one booked less often.
AirDNA, which covers Airbnb, Vrbo and Booking.com, shows the same pain from another angle: average nightly rates down 23.6% in a year and comparable RevPAR down 10.7%. Owners there are filling more nights, but at much lower prices.
So yes, returns are worse. How much depends on the property, but the easy version of the Tulum Airbnb trade is over.
| Tulum rental measure | Current level | 1-year change | 3-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbtics median annual revenue | MXN 231K | -3.7% | -10.8% |
| Airbtics occupancy | 43% | -10.4% | -20.4% |
| Airbtics nightly rate | MXN 1,424 | +6.4% | +10.7% |
| Airbtics active listings | 6,543 | +55.7% | +106.5% |
| AirDNA nightly rate | $125 | -23.6% | — |
| AirDNA comparable RevPAR | $58 | -10.7% | — |
Why does AirDNA show revenue up 60% when owners are earning less?
Because AirDNA's pool of tracked listings shrank by almost three quarters, and the ones left are the stronger ones. The average went up without a single extra tourist.
AirDNA counts 3,608 active Tulum listings in September 2026, down 73.1% in a year, with 46% occupancy and $17,400 of average yearly revenue, up 60.5%. Its Greater Tulum area, which covers the pricier beach and jungle properties, has 912 listings, 43% occupancy and $27,200 a year.
Part of the drop is weak listings leaving. Part is how AirDNA now counts: it removes duplicates across platforms and changed its definition of an active listing, and its counts fell sharply in other Mexican markets too. Either way, the average of the survivors tells you little about what an individual owner earns.
The useful number is comparable RevPAR, which only looks at properties present in both years: down 10.7% to $58. Airbtics, which counts 6,543 Airbnbs, says the same thing over three years. The two providers measure different things, so we never mix them in one calculation.
| Dataset | Listings tracked | Occupancy | Annual revenue | What we take from it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbtics (to Aug 2026) | 6,543 | 43% | MXN 231K (median) | Best long-term comparison |
| AirDNA, Tulum (Sep 2026) | 3,608 | 46% | $17.4K (average) | Average lifted by listings leaving |
| AirDNA comparable properties | — | — | RevPAR $58 | Down 10.7% in a year |
| AirDNA, Greater Tulum | 912 | 43% | $27.2K (average) | Pricier beach and jungle homes |
Did Tulum simply build too many Airbnbs?
Yes. Tulum built far more short-term rentals than its visitors can fill.
Airbtics shows active listings up 106.5% in three years. In its Mexico review for 2025, Tulum added 1,379 listings in a single year, the third-largest increase among the 60 markets it studied.
The condo boom fed that. Most new apartments were sold to investors with projected Airbnb income, so every finished building added another unit for sale and another rental chasing the same guests. Sales then collapsed: 3,487 homes sold in 2023, only 1,711 in 2025, according to Softec data reported by El Economista. AMPI Tulum, the local realtors' association, talked about five to six years of unsold studios and one-bedrooms.
Tourism doesn't have to collapse for returns to fall. It only has to grow slower than the number of beds, and in Tulum it's actually shrinking.
Is tourism in Tulum falling too?
Yes. Tulum hotels are emptier as well, so this isn't only an Airbnb oversupply problem.
Tulum hotel occupancy fell from 73.8% in 2024 to 69.1% in 2025. In the first half of 2026, it averaged 66.18%, against 74.32% a year earlier, a drop of more than eight points. Quintana Roo as a whole lost about three points.
It got worse after the summer. From January to July 2026, Tulum averaged 63.69%, against 72.67%. In the week of September 19 to 25, Tulum hotels were 42.3% full, against 48.5% for the whole state, and five hotels had closed temporarily, according to state data reported by Por Esto!.
Hotels and Airbnbs fight for the same visitors. When hotels fill fewer rooms while rentals keep multiplying, owners get squeezed from both sides.
| Hotel occupancy | Earlier period | Latest comparable period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulum, full year (2024 vs 2025) | 73.8% | 69.1% | -4.7 pts |
| Tulum, first half (2025 vs 2026) | 74.32% | 66.18% | -8.1 pts |
| Tulum, January to July (2025 vs 2026) | 72.67% | 63.69% | -9.0 pts |
| Riviera Maya, first half | 76.63% | 72.77% | -3.9 pts |
| Playa del Carmen, first half | 77.05% | 72.58% | -4.5 pts |
| Quintana Roo, first half | 75.82% | 72.87% | -3.0 pts |
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Are Tulum Airbnb owners cutting prices to keep bookings?
Yes, in AirDNA's data. Its average Tulum nightly rate is $125, down 23.6% in a year, and comparable RevPAR is still down 10.7%.
That's what an oversupplied market looks like. A host drops a $180 night to $140, adds weekly discounts and gets aggressive with last-minute pricing. The calendar fills up, but each available night earns less.
Airbtics sees it differently: its median nightly rate is up 6.4% in a year to MXN 1,424, but occupancy fell 10.4%. One provider sees the pain in prices, the other in empty nights. Both end up in the same place: less money per property.
What to do: when a seller shows you last year's revenue, ask for this year's nightly rates and occupancy month by month. A unit that kept its occupancy only by cutting prices is worth less than its 2024 numbers suggest.
Have Tulum condo prices fallen enough to make up for weaker rents?
Sometimes, but not across the board. Prices have dropped from the peak, while rental income has dropped too.
The Red Search's Riviera Maya tracker showed average Tulum condo inventory going from about $321,000 in early 2024 to $283,000 a year later, and reported sold prices from about $283,000 to $245,000. That's a real reset for anyone comparing with boom prices.
Today's asking prices are lower still for smaller units. TuLugar puts the median Tulum condo at about $213,000, one-bedrooms at $158,000 and two-bedrooms at $267,000 in October 2026. These are asking prices, not sale prices, and with sales halved since 2023, real deals often close below them.
The price you pay now matters more than the city's average Airbnb revenue. A mediocre rental bought at $300,000 is a bad investment; the same unit at $180,000 can work.
| Property measure | Earlier level | Later/current level | Approx. change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. condo inventory price (early 2024 vs early 2025) | $321K | $283K | -11.8% |
| Avg. reported sold price (early 2024 vs early 2025) | $283K | $245K | -13.4% |
| Median condo asking price (Oct 2026) | — | ~$213K | — |
| Median 1-bedroom asking price (Oct 2026) | — | ~$158K | — |
| Median 2-bedroom asking price (Oct 2026) | — | ~$267K | — |
What rental yield can a normal Tulum condo make now?
About 6% to 8% gross on market averages, roughly 4% to 5% once the main costs are paid, and under 3% after a non-resident's tax.
AirDNA's average of $17,400 a year against TuLugar's $213,000 median condo gives about 8.2% gross. Airbtics' median of about $12,400 against the same price gives about 5.8%. We keep the two apart, because one is an average across platforms and the other a median Airbnb.
Neither is your condo, but they show the scale. That's a long way from the 12%, 15% or 18% that many presale pitches promised.
Gross is only the first layer. Management, platform fees, HOA, electricity, internet, repairs, insurance, linen and furniture all come out before you see anything, and they can turn 7% gross into 3% or 4% before personal tax.
Should you switch your Tulum condo to a long-term rental?
For a generic condo, maybe: a long-term tenant now earns about 5.5% gross on the median price, close to what an average Airbnb keeps after costs.
TuLugar puts the median Tulum condo rent at $982 a month, or $11,784 a year. On a $213,000 condo, that's about 5.5% gross, with no platform fee, no cleaning, no furniture to replace every few years and no empty low-season months.
Long-term rents are falling too, though. Propiedades.com shows apartment rents down 8.4% in Aldea Zamá and 5.7% in La Veleta between April 2025 and October 2026, so too many owners have had the same idea.
What to do: compare your last 12 months of Airbnb income after all costs with a year of rent at a realistic price. If the gap is small, a one-year lease saves you work and risk. Keep Airbnb for units that stand out, like a private pool, a beach-side location or a much better design.
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They know which homes sell fast and which sit for months.
Message a proHow much do costs eat into a Tulum Airbnb?
For an owner who doesn't live there, costs easily take 30% to 45% of gross revenue, and more in pricier buildings.
Full-service managers in Tulum usually charge 15% to 25% of revenue, and Ambar Villas and House Tulum publish rates around 20%. Since June 23, 2026, Airbnb's host fee in Mexico is 4% on the split-fee model, up from 3%, and the single host-only fee used by many managers can reach 16%.
Fixed costs don't stop when guests do. HOA fees in Tulum and Playa del Carmen condos run from about MXN 4,500 to MXN 12,000 a month (about $242 to $645), and electricity, internet, insurance and repairs come on top.
Take AirDNA's average of $17,400. A 20% manager takes $3,480. A 4% host fee takes about $700. An HOA at the low end of MXN 4,500 a month costs about $2,900 a year. About $10,300 is left, or 4.8% on a $213,000 condo, before utilities, repairs, insurance, furniture and tax. A non-resident then owes 25% of the gross, about $4,350, which leaves about $6,000, or 2.8%.
| Example on AirDNA's $17,400 average | Annual cost | Revenue left |
|---|---|---|
| Starting gross revenue | — | $17,400 |
| 20% management | $3,480 | $13,920 |
| 4% host fee | ~$700 | ~$13,200 |
| HOA at MXN 4,500/month | ~$2,900 | ~$10,300 |
| Utilities, repairs, insurance, tax | Not included | Below $10,300 |
Do Tulum's licence rules and taxes cut your return further?
Yes, a little in money and a lot in risk if you skip them. Quintana Roo requires state and municipal operating licences plus registration in RETUR-Q, the state tourism register, for every short-term rental.
Unregistered rentals face fines that can go above MXN 100,000 (about $5,380), and platforms are expected to publish registration numbers. Airbnb also collects Quintana Roo's 6% lodging tax from guests, which makes your total price a bit less competitive against hotels.
On income tax, Airbnb withholds 4% from hosts who give a valid RFC (Mexican tax ID), and 20% from those who don't. If you're not a Mexican tax resident, the tax is 25% of gross rent, with no deductions. VAT can apply on top, depending on your tax status.
What to do: before buying, ask whether the unit is already registered, read the condo rules on short-term rentals, check the project has valid permits (without them, a licence can be hard to get), and get an RFC before the first booking.
Can a Tulum condo still return 10% to 15% a year?
Some can, but a 10% to 15% net return is no longer a sensible base case for a normal unit.
A $200,000 condo needs $20,000 of net income a year for a 10% net return. If costs take 35% of revenue, that means about $30,800 of bookings. If they take half, $40,000. For a non-resident who also pays 25% of gross in tax, the 35% case rises to about $50,000.
Compare that with AirDNA's average of $17,400, or Airbtics' median of about $12,400. Your unit would need to earn roughly twice the market.
Strong units do. An April 2025 Airbtics report on one-bedrooms around Aldea Zamá found annual revenue from about $14,000 at the weak end to more than $29,000 at the strong end. So 10% gross is possible in the right deal. A steady 10% net needs a much better property, a much lower price or a very efficient operation.
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Why are some Tulum Airbnbs still doing much better than others?
Because guests now have thousands of choices and pay more only for a clear reason: location, design, privacy or reviews.
The spread is wide. In that April 2025 Airbtics report, similar one-bedrooms near Aldea Zamá ranged from about 28% to 70% occupancy. In Airbtics' current data, the median nightly rate is MXN 1,784 (about $96) in the Zona Hotelera, against MXN 1,201 (about $65) in La Veleta and MXN 892 (about $48) in Tulum Centro.
A generic one-bedroom with tropical decor, a shared rooftop pool and ten identical units in the same building has almost no pricing power today. A well-reviewed unit with better design, good photos, reliable management and a location guests actually search for can do very differently.
What to do: pull up the Airbnb listings in the building you're looking at. If there are many near-identical units, assume you'll compete on price.
Is the Tulum airport bringing enough guests?
No. The airport is losing passengers and airlines, so don't count on it to fill your calendar.
It did make Tulum easier to reach and carried more than 1 million passengers in its first year. But AFAC statistics show 471,500 passengers in the first half of 2026, down 33.2% from 705,400, with international traffic down 40.8%. DataTur counted 104,127 foreign arrivals through the airport from January to April 2026, against 160,767 a year earlier.
Airlines are now leaving. Aeroméxico suspended its Tulum flights on September 30, 2026, Volaris stops flying there from January 7, 2027, and American Airlines is dropping Miami–Tulum while keeping Dallas.
Guests can still fly into Cancún and drive two hours, so fewer airport passengers doesn't mean the same drop in visitors. But the "airport will fill the condos" pitch didn't happen. Don't pay extra for it.
Is buying a Tulum rental smarter now than during the boom?
For a careful buyer, yes: weaker sales and rents give you far more room to negotiate than in 2021 or 2022.
During the boom, buyers paid presale prices based on projected Airbnb income. Today there are finished buildings, years of real booking history and lots of resale stock, while sales have halved since 2023.
You can ask for 12 months of real booking statements, look at the actual Airbnb calendar, check management reports, compare with nearby listings and negotiate with sellers who've been waiting a long time.
Price does most of the work. A unit earning $18,000 gross is a 6% yield at $300,000 and 10% at $180,000. The best deals now are finished units with a proven rental record and a seller who needs to sell, not glossy projections.
So, are Tulum rental returns getting worse?
Yes, on average, and the evidence now points the same way from every side.
Over three years, Airbtics shows listings up 106.5%, occupancy down 20.4% and median revenue down 10.8%. AirDNA's comparable RevPAR is down 10.7% in a year and its nightly rate down 23.6%.
Demand is weaker too: hotel occupancy fell more than eight points in the first half of 2026, airport passengers dropped 33.2% and airlines are pulling out.
Market revenue of about $12,400 to $17,400 a year against a $213,000 median asking price leaves a thin net yield once costs are paid. A long-term lease at about 5.5% gross is now a serious alternative for ordinary units.
Tulum Airbnb hasn't stopped working. The best units earn about twice their weaker neighbors, and today's soft market lets new buyers get in much cheaper. But the unit and the price you pay now decide the return, not the name Tulum.
Our methodology
This article estimates whether owning a Tulum rental pays less than it used to. We look at short-term rental revenue, occupancy, nightly rates and supply, then at tourism demand, property prices, owner costs, rules and taxes, and the gap between ordinary and strong properties.
Official data comes first: hotel occupancy from Quintana Roo's tourism office (SEDETUR and SITUR-Q), airport traffic from AFAC and DataTur, and rental rules from the state government and the federal income tax law (including the 25% tax on gross rent for non-residents). Short-term rental figures come from Airbtics (12 months to August 2026, updated October 16, 2026) and AirDNA (data to September 2026, updated October 20, 2026). They count listings differently, so we keep them apart and never mix them in one calculation.
Property prices and rents are asking prices from TuLugar and Propiedades.com (October 2026), with older Red Search data for the 2024 to 2025 drop. Sales come from Softec data reported by El Economista. Costs come from published management fees, Airbnb's host fee pages and The Mexico Handbook's HOA ranges. The cost and yield examples are our own calculations.
We checked these figures in October 2026. Conversions use about 18.6 pesos per US dollar and 20.9 pesos per euro.
Limits: asking prices aren't sale prices, AirDNA's averages after a big drop in listings are partly a survivor effect, and the Aldea Zamá comparables come from an April 2025 Airbtics report. Your own unit can do much better or much worse than any market figure.
Key sources used for this analysis include: Airbtics' Tulum short-term-rental data, Airbtics' Mexico Short-Term Rental Market Review 2025, Airbtics' Aldea Zamá comparable-property report, AirDNA's Tulum data, AirDNA's Greater Tulum data, AirDNA's methodology updates, SITUR-Q hotel occupancy, SEDETUR's tourism reports, Por Esto! on September 2026 hotel occupancy, AFAC airport statistics, DataTur's January-April 2026 foreign-arrival report, El Imparcial on airlines leaving Tulum, Grupo Animal on Volaris, El Economista on Tulum's housing oversupply, La Jornada Maya on AMPI Tulum, The Red Search Property Tracker, TuLugar's Tulum market data, Propiedades.com on Aldea Zamá rents, Propiedades.com on La Veleta rents, Ambar Villas' management terms, House Tulum's management terms, Airbnb's service fees, Airbnb on lodging taxes, The Mexico Handbook on HOA fees, Riviera Maya News on RETUR-Q fines and SAT on platform income tax (article 113-A).
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