Summary
Yes, but slowly. Banks granted mortgages at 9.99% on average in June 2026, down from 10.31% a year earlier, while Banxico's rate fell from 11.25% to 6.50%.
The rate you see depends on which number you look at. Banxico's average fixed-rate quote was still 11.31% in August 2026, SHF's average was 11.42% in the second quarter, and Banorte advertises from 8.80%.
Mortgages haven't followed Banxico because a 20-year loan is priced off long-term money, and long-dated Mexican government debt still costs around 9%.
Below 9% is real, but only for the best profiles. Banorte's 8.80% comes with an average CAT of 12.4% before VAT, so compare the CAT, not the headline rate.
The gap between quote and loan is where you save. On a MXN 3 million, 20-year loan, 11.31% costs about MXN 31,600 a month and 9.99% about MXN 28,900.
Foreigners who aren't resident mostly borrow through cross-border lenders, which want at least 35% down, so these Mexican averages rarely apply to them.
Prices are eating the saving. SHF measured a 7.9% rise in mortgage-financed home values in the first half of 2026, so even at a lower rate, the monthly payment on the same type of home is about 6% higher.
The squeeze varies by city: prices rose 11.1% around Guadalajara but only 4.6% in the Valley of Mexico, where cheaper credit actually helps.
No boom is coming. Commercial banks granted 1.9% fewer mortgages in the first half of 2026.
Don't count on Banxico either: analysts in Citi's October 2026 survey expect the rate to stay at 6.50% through 2026 and 2027.
Waiting is a bet against prices. An 8% rise on a MXN 3 million home adds MXN 240,000, far more than a 30 to 50 basis-point rate cut saves.
Bottom line: rates have turned, but the market won't get cheaper until average loans, not promotions, settle below 9%. If you need a loan, shop three banks hard now and refinance later if rates drop.
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Message a proHow far have Mexican mortgage rates actually fallen in 2026?
A little: the loans banks actually granted averaged 9.99% in June 2026, against 10.31% a year earlier, according to the Asociación de Bancos de México.
Other series tell the same slow story. Banco de México's rate on new bank housing loans was 10.13% in March 2026, from 10.40% two years earlier. Its average fixed-rate quote, a different measure, was still 11.31% in August, and the average SHF reported for the second quarter was 11.42%.
At the cheapest end, Banorte advertises a fixed rate from 8.80% for strong borrowers.
So the direction has changed. What hasn't happened is the big drop people expected once Banxico started cutting.
| Mortgage-rate measure | Earlier level | Latest available level | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loans granted, ABM weighted average | 10.31% (June 2025) | 9.99% (June 2026) | -0.32 pp |
| New bank housing loans, Banxico | 10.40% (March 2024) | 10.13% (March 2026) | -0.27 pp |
| Average fixed-rate quote, Banxico | n/a | 11.31% (August 2026) | Still high |
| Average mortgage rate, SHF | Above 11% | 11.42% (Q2 2026) | Still high |
| Banorte advertised starting rate | Above current offer | 8.80% | Below 9% now |
| Banxico policy rate | 11.25% peak | 6.50% (October 2026) | -4.75 pp |
Why haven't Mexico's mortgage rates fallen as much as Banxico's rate?
Because Banxico controls an overnight rate, and a 20-year fixed mortgage is priced off what long-term money costs.
Banxico's policy rate peaked at 11.25% and is now 6.50%. That's 4.75 percentage points of cuts.
Mortgage rates moved by a fraction of that: about a third of a point on loans actually granted, and the average quote is still above 11%.
If mortgages had tracked the policy rate, borrowers would already see much cheaper loans. They don't.
Are long-term interest rates keeping Mexican mortgages expensive?
Yes, long-term rates still put a floor under mortgage pricing.
When average new mortgage rates dipped below 9% around 2020 and 2021, Mexico's 20-year government bond often yielded around 6% to 7%.
Long-dated Mexican government debt has more recently traded around 9%. That leaves banks little room to lend for 20 years at 7% or 8% and still cover credit risk, capital and costs.
Another small Banxico cut wouldn't change much. Banks need the long end of the curve to come down too.
| Period | Approx. new mortgage rate | 20-year government yield | Mortgage environment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late 2020 | ~8.8%-9.0% | ~6%-7% | Very favorable |
| 2022 | ~9%-10% | ~8%-10% | Rising costs |
| 2024 | ~10.3%-10.4% | ~9%-10% | Expensive |
| 2026 | ~10%-11% | Around 9% | Still restrictive |
Can you actually get a mortgage below 9% in Mexico now?
Yes, but only at the very top of the market.
Banorte's Hipoteca Fuerte starts at a fixed 8.80%. That's a real product from a major bank, not a comparison-site number.
But "from 8.80%" does a lot of work. The final rate depends on your credit, income, down payment and the property. Most borrowers will get more.
Why do banks quote 11.31% but lend at 9.99%?
Because the quote is the list price and 9.99% is what borrowers who actually got approved ended up paying, after profile discounts and negotiation.
Banxico's 11.31% is the average fixed rate banks quote. The 9.99% from the Asociación de Bancos de México is the weighted average of loans granted in June 2026. Approved borrowers tend to have better credit, bigger down payments and payroll or account ties with the bank, and they often push for a better offer.
The gap is worth real money. On a MXN 3 million loan over 20 years, 11.31% costs about MXN 31,600 a month (about USD 1,700) and 9.99% about MXN 28,900 (about USD 1,550). That's roughly MXN 2,700 a month.
What to do: get a formal written offer from at least three banks, compare the CAT and the full payment schedule, ask what rate you'd get with your payroll or a larger down payment, and use the best offer to negotiate with the others. Don't take the first quote.
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Are banks in Mexico competing harder for mortgage borrowers?
Yes, for good borrowers. That's why deals are improving before the average has moved much.
Besides Banorte's 8.80%, banks compete on opening fees, refinancing offers, Infonavit-linked loans and discounts for existing customers.
A bank doesn't cut every rate at once. It offers the sharp price first to people with good credit, stable income and low loan-to-value. Two buyers of similar homes can now get very different financing costs.
Is Mexico's average mortgage rate falling, or only the promotional rates?
Mostly the promotional ones. The average is moving much more slowly.
Banorte advertises 8.80% while SHF's second-quarter average is 11.42%, a gap of more than 2.5 points. Even the 9.99% on loans granted in June is well above the best headline offers.
So the first winners are people with strong profiles, not the mass market.
| Mortgage pricing today | Approx. rate | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|
| Banorte starting offer | 8.80% | Best-case pricing is improving |
| Loans granted, ABM (June 2026) | 9.99% | Approved borrowers pay below the quote |
| New bank loans, Banxico (March 2026) | 10.13% | New lending is still around 10% |
| Average fixed-rate quote, Banxico (August 2026) | 11.31% | List prices remain above 11% |
| Average rate, SHF Q2 | 11.42% | Broad market is still well above 10% |
| Banxico policy rate | 6.50% | Rate cuts barely reach mortgages |
Are Mexican mortgage CATs coming down too?
Not enough to make headline rates look as cheap as they sound.
Banorte's Hipoteca Fuerte starts at 8.80%, but its published average CAT is 12.4% before VAT. That's 3.6 points more.
The CAT (costo anual total) adds fees, insurance and other required costs that the interest rate leaves out. Two banks can show the same rate and very different total costs, so compare the CAT and the monthly payment schedule, not the ad.
Can foreigners get a Mexican mortgage at these rates?
Usually not at these rates. The averages above are for Mexican borrowers, and most non-resident foreigners end up with cross-border lenders on tougher terms.
Some Mexican banks lend to foreigners with legal residency. HSBC México, for example, advertises its fixed-payment mortgage to legally resident foreigners. Expect to prove Mexican income or a long credit history.
Non-residents usually go through specialist lenders. MoXi/Global Mortgage asks for at least 35% down (a maximum 65% loan-to-value) with terms up to 30 years; Global Property Mortgages lends 50% to 65% of the value over 10 to 25 years. We found no reliable published average rate for foreigners, so compare full written offers.
One more risk: if you earn in dollars or euros and borrow in pesos, a weaker peso makes each payment cheaper for you, a stronger one makes it dearer. Many foreign buyers pay cash for that reason. Our guide to getting a mortgage in Mexico covers the steps.
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Message a proDoes today's drop in Mexican mortgage rates save much money?
Some, but not enough to change affordability for the average borrower.
On a MXN 1 million mortgage over 20 years, 10.40% costs about MXN 9,900 a month and 10.13% about MXN 9,740. That's roughly MXN 160 to 170 a month per million borrowed.
A full point would matter much more. Buyers waiting for a real change are waiting for the broad market to move from 10% to 11% toward 9% or below, not for the next 20 or 30 basis points.
Have rising home prices cancelled out the lower mortgage rates in Mexico?
Yes, for many buyers.
SHF says homes bought with a mortgage cost 7.9% more in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier. New homes rose 8.3%, used homes 7.5%, and economic and social housing 10%. Inflation was 3.4% in June.
Those rises dwarf the few tenths of a point shaved off mortgage rates. Credit is cheaper per peso borrowed, but you have to borrow more pesos.
| Illustrative 20-year mortgage | Loan amount | Rate | Approx. monthly payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earlier price and rate | MXN 1,000,000 | 10.40% | ~MXN 9,900 |
| Same price, lower rate | MXN 1,000,000 | 10.13% | ~MXN 9,740 |
| Price +7.9%, lower rate | MXN 1,079,000 | 10.13% | ~MXN 10,500 |
| Approximate net result | +7.9% principal | Lower rate | Payment still rises ~6% |
Is buying a home becoming more affordable anywhere in Mexico?
A little, in places where prices have slowed. Local price growth matters more than the national rate drop.
In the first half of 2026, SHF measured price rises of 11.1% around Guadalajara, 9.7% around Tijuana, 8.5% in Puebla-Tlaxcala and 8.3% around Monterrey. Half a point off the mortgage rate can't offset that.
The Valley of Mexico is different: 4.6%. Slower prices plus slightly cheaper credit give buyers there a real, if small, improvement.
| Metropolitan area | Home-price growth, first half 2026 | Can a small rate drop offset it? |
|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara | 11.1% | Very unlikely |
| Tijuana | 9.7% | Very unlikely |
| Puebla-Tlaxcala | 8.5% | Unlikely |
| Monterrey | 8.3% | Unlikely |
| Valley of Mexico | 4.6% | More plausible |
Why are Mexican home prices still rising so fast when mortgages are expensive?
Because expensive credit hasn't weakened demand or supply enough to push prices down.
Economic and social housing rose 10% in the first half of 2026, against 6.7% for middle and residential homes. The strongest pressure is in the cheaper segment, where buyers are the most sensitive to monthly payments.
Limited supply, building and land costs, and strong demand in some cities keep prices up even with rates above 11%.
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Are lower mortgage rates about to unleash a housing boom in Mexico?
No. Rates are still too high, and banks are actually granting fewer mortgages.
According to the Asociación de Bancos de México, commercial banks granted 53,400 mortgages in the first half of 2026, 1.9% fewer than a year earlier, even though the amount they lent rose 4.3% as loans got bigger. All lenders together, including Infonavit and Fovissste, granted 243,400, up 2.6%.
SHF puts the median appraised home at about MXN 1.30 million and the average at about MXN 1.96 million. Financing that at around 10% is still heavy for most Mexican households.
Lower rates will help people who were close to qualifying. They won't suddenly open the market to a much bigger pool of buyers.
Will Banxico cut rates again in 2026?
Probably not. Analysts surveyed by Citi in October 2026 expect Banxico to keep its rate at 6.50% for the rest of 2026 and through 2027.
Banxico has paused after a long run of cuts. It still has to watch inflation, the peso and U.S. rates.
Even a 25 basis-point cut would barely move mortgages. What would matter is a lasting fall in 10- to 20-year Mexican yields.
Could mortgage rates in Mexico broadly fall below 9%?
Eventually, maybe, but not with today's bond market.
Banks can already lend below 9%, as Banorte shows. The test is whether 8% to 9% becomes normal pricing rather than a starting rate for selected customers.
The last time average new mortgages were around 8.8% to 9.0%, in 2020 and 2021, the 20-year government yield was several points lower than today. Getting back there would take lower inflation, lower long-term yields and continued competition between banks.
Should buyers in Mexico wait for mortgage rates to fall?
Not automatically. Rising prices can cost more than the rate saving.
National prices rose 7.9% in the first half of 2026, with Guadalajara above 11% and Tijuana close to 10%. A MXN 3 million property (about USD 161,000) rising 8% adds MXN 240,000 (about USD 12,900). A 30 or 50 basis-point rate cut won't recover that.
Waiting makes more sense if your local market is flat, you'll have a much bigger down payment soon, or your credit profile gets you poor offers today.
Banks also compete for existing mortgages, so if you buy at a fair fixed rate now, you can try to refinance with another bank if rates drop a lot. Check the early-repayment terms before you sign.
Are mortgage rates in Mexico finally coming down enough to matter?
They matter for rate shopping, not yet for affordability.
On the plus side: loans granted are down to 9.99%, one major bank advertises 8.80%, banks are competing for good borrowers, and Banxico has cut 4.75 points.
On the minus side: quotes are still above 11%, long-term yields remain high, Banxico is expected to hold, and prices rose 7.9% in the first half of 2026.
Mexico is in the early stage of a mortgage-rate downcycle. The real change will come when average loans, not a few best-case offers, settle below 9%.
Our methodology
This article checks whether Mexican mortgage rates are falling enough to change things for buyers. We compare loans actually granted, bank quotes, advertised offers, the CAT, Banxico's policy rate, long-term government yields, monthly payments and home-price growth.
We keep the rate series apart because they measure different things: the Asociación de Bancos de México's weighted average on loans granted (9.99% in June 2026), Banco de México's rate on new bank loans (10.13% in March 2026), its average fixed-rate quote (11.31% in August 2026), SHF's second-quarter average (11.42%) and Banorte's advertised starting rate (8.80%), which is a best case, not what most people get.
Payment examples use a standard 20-year amortizing loan, so only the rate changes. We then apply SHF's home-price growth, nationally and by metropolitan area, to show how higher prices offset cheaper credit. Long-term yield levels are approximate and come from Banco de México's interest-rate data. Rate expectations come from the Citi survey of analysts reported in October 2026.
Foreigner financing terms come from the lenders' own published conditions; we found no reliable average rate paid by foreigners.
We checked these figures in October 2026. Conversions use about 18.6 pesos per US dollar and 20.9 pesos per euro. Advertised rates and quotes are not guaranteed offers: your rate depends on your profile, and the CAT changes with fees and insurance.
Key sources used for this analysis include Crónica on ABM mortgage rates and volumes (October 2026), Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal's Q2 2026 Housing Price Index, Banco de México's series on new housing-loan interest rates, Banco de México's SIE interest-rate series, Banco de México's government-securities and interest-rate data, Banco de México's monetary-policy decisions, El Financiero on the Citi survey, Banco de México's CAT methodology, Banorte's Hipoteca Fuerte disclosure, BBVA México's fixed-mortgage offer, HSBC México's fixed-payment mortgage, Santander México's mortgage, Scotiabank México's home-purchase mortgage, MoXi/Global Mortgage, Global Property Mortgages and INEGI's June 2026 consumer-price release.
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