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SUMMARY
Yes. Property prices in Mexico are still more likely to rise than fall, although the next phase should be slower and much more uneven than the boom years.
The latest SHF data point to cooling, not weakness. National appreciation eased from 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to 7.3% in the second quarter, which is still a strong pace for an entire country.
The bigger story is how long the rise has lasted. Mexico recorded housing-price growth of 8.9% in 2022, 10.9% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025, adding roughly 43% to the national index before the additional gains in 2026.
The affordability squeeze is now strongest at the cheaper end. Economic-social housing rose 10% in the first half of 2026, faster than middle and residential housing at 6.7%, so the properties most accessible to ordinary buyers are not getting relief.
Used housing is important here. Resale homes dominate mortgage-backed transactions and are still appreciating, which makes the current rise harder to dismiss as a new-development or luxury-market story.
Mexico is also splitting into very different local markets. Guadalajara was still rising 11.1% in the first half of 2026 while the Valley of Mexico was closer to 4.6%, so one national number now hides a lot.
Nearshoring supports selected cities rather than the whole country. Monterrey and Tijuana have a clear investment-and-employment story, but Guadalajara and Puebla-Tlaxcala show that strong housing appreciation is not simply following industrial FDI.
Mortgage rates above 11% have already been acting as a brake for years. So far, the adjustment has shown up more in weaker mortgage activity, smaller purchases and buyers staying out of the market than in broad nominal price cuts.
Affordability is still the main reason to expect slower growth. A mortgage on a median-priced financed home can absorb roughly 42% of average 2024 household current income before insurance, maintenance and other housing costs are added.
Supply is not only about how many homes Mexico builds. The harder problem is producing affordable housing in places with jobs, infrastructure, transport and acceptable commute times; peripheral construction does little to ease scarcity in the neighborhoods buyers actually want.
Our base case is roughly 5% to 8% nominal national growth, with stronger cities continuing to outperform. A nationwide decline would probably require a much worse combination of job losses, credit stress, forced sales and oversupply than Mexico is showing now.
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Is Mexico’s housing market still rising today?
Yes. Property prices in Mexico are still rising clearly today, although the latest SHF data show that the pace has started to cool.
Mexico’s national housing-price index rose 7.3% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, while appreciation over the first half reached 7.9%. That was slower than the 8.7% recorded in the first quarter, but it is still a strong increase for a national housing market.
The slowdown also needs to be seen against the previous four years. SHF recorded national price growth of 8.9% in 2022, 10.9% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025. Compounded, those four annual increases added roughly 43% to the national index before counting the additional rise in 2026.
Housing is also still gaining much faster than consumer prices. SHF reported inflation around 3.4% alongside its latest housing release, less than half the rate of home-price appreciation.
So far, Mexico looks like a market coming down from unusually fast growth rather than one approaching a price decline.
| Period | SHF housing-price growth | Broad reading |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.9% | Strong rise |
| 2023 | 10.9% | Peak recent growth |
| 2024 | 9.2% | Still very strong |
| 2025 | 8.7% | Moderate slowdown |
| H1 2026 | 7.9% | Cooling, but still high |
Are Mexican property prices starting to slow down?
Yes. Mexican property prices are slowing now, and the change is visible across several major cities.
National appreciation fell from 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to 7.3% in the second. The same direction appears in Monterrey, Tijuana, Querétaro and the Valley of Mexico.
Monterrey moved from 9.3% annual growth in the first quarter to 8.3% over the first half. Tijuana went from 11.0% to 9.7%. Querétaro fell from 6.6% to 5.6%, while the Valley of Mexico moved from 5.1% to 4.6%.
Guadalajara is the clear exception. Housing prices there were up 12.5% in the first quarter and were still rising 11.1% over the first half.
The useful distinction here is between slowing and stalling. A national market moving from around 9% annual appreciation toward 7% is slowing. We would need to see growth moving toward zero, or turning negative across several quarters, before calling it weak.
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Has Mexico’s property boom lasted long enough to be more than a temporary spike?
Yes. Mexico’s property boom has lasted long enough that we should now treat it as a structural repricing rather than a short post-pandemic jump.
National housing prices rose close to or above 9% in each full year from 2022 through 2025. That persistence is hard to explain with one temporary factor.
The mix of transactions makes the pattern even stronger. Used homes represented roughly 60% of mortgage-backed transactions in 2022, 60.5% in 2023, 62.8% in 2024 and 63.8% during the first nine months of 2025. Resale prices nevertheless kept rising almost as fast as new-build prices.
The lower end of the market is also under heavy pressure. During the first half of 2026, SHF’s economic-social housing category rose 10%, compared with 6.7% for middle and residential housing. That weakens the idea that Mexico’s housing boom is mainly about wealthy foreigners buying premium properties.
The broader pattern looks much more domestic: not enough suitable housing in the places where people want or need to live, while construction costs, land constraints and expensive credit make it difficult for supply to catch up.
How expensive has the typical Mexican home become?
The typical Mexican home financed through the formal mortgage market has become much more expensive in only a few years, with the median valuation rising from 893,000 pesos in 2022 to about 1.30 million pesos in the first half of 2026.
That is an increase of roughly 46% in less than four and a half years.
The median reached 951,000 pesos in 2023, 1.07 million in 2024 and 1.21 million in 2025 before moving close to 1.30 million in 2026.
The average price is considerably higher because expensive homes pull it upward. SHF reported an average valuation of about 1.54 million pesos in 2022, 1.62 million in 2023, 1.74 million in 2024, 1.86 million in 2025 and roughly 1.96 million during the first half of 2026.
This gap between the median and the average is useful because it shows how misleading one national “average home price” can be. Mexico contains very different housing markets, and a relatively small number of expensive properties can distort the national average.
| Period | Average home value | Median home value | Median change from 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | MXN 1.535m | MXN 893k | — |
| 2023 | MXN 1.617m | MXN 951k | +6.5% |
| 2024 | MXN 1.736m | MXN 1.070m | +19.8% |
| 2025 | MXN 1.864m | MXN 1.209m | +35.4% |
| H1 2026 | MXN 1.960m | MXN 1.300m | +45.5% |
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Are property prices rising everywhere in Mexico?
No. Property prices are rising across most of Mexico, but the gap between the strongest and weakest big-city markets is now huge.
During the first half of 2026, Guadalajara led the major metropolitan areas with 11.1% appreciation. Tijuana reached 9.7%, Puebla-Tlaxcala 8.5% and Monterrey 8.3%.
Querétaro was much slower at 5.6%, Toluca at 5.1% and the Valley of Mexico at only 4.6%. Guadalajara was therefore rising at more than twice the pace of the Mexico City metropolitan area.
This divergence has been building for several years. Tijuana rose 12.8% in 2022, 14% in 2023 and 12.7% in 2024 before slowing. Monterrey recorded 9.1%, 11.3% and 10.9% over those same three years.
The Valley of Mexico followed a much softer path: 7.2% in 2022, 9.6% in 2023, 6.6% in 2024, 5.1% in 2025 and 4.6% in the first half of 2026.
A single national forecast is becoming less useful. Mexico is increasingly behaving like several housing markets moving at different speeds.
| Metropolitan area | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara | 11.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% |
| Tijuana | 14.0% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% |
| Monterrey | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% |
| Puebla–Tlaxcala | 7.1% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| León | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% |
| Querétaro | 13.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Toluca | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% |
| Valley of Mexico | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
Why are Guadalajara property prices still rising so fast?
Guadalajara is currently one of Mexico’s strongest large housing markets because price growth has stayed above or close to 10% even while several other cities have cooled.
SHF recorded 11.5% appreciation in 2023, 9.4% in 2024, 11.3% in 2025 and 11.1% during the first half of 2026.
That consistency is more interesting than the latest number on its own. Guadalajara has spent several years around double-digit growth, which suggests that buyers are repeatedly competing for a limited amount of desirable housing.
The city also has a broad employment base. Technology, electronics, manufacturing and services create local housing demand that does not depend on tourism or second-home buyers.
Guadalajara can continue expanding geographically, but new peripheral housing does not solve scarcity in established neighborhoods, near major employment centers or along the best-connected transport corridors. That helps explain why substantial construction has not been enough to flatten prices.
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Can Monterrey’s nearshoring boom keep pushing property prices higher?
Yes. Monterrey still has some of the strongest reasons for housing prices to keep rising, even though its appreciation is now slower than during the peak of the nearshoring boom.
Nuevo León received about $3.63 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025, according to Mexico’s Economy Ministry, up roughly 73% from the previous year. The state was second only to Mexico City.
More recently, the Nuevo León government reported around $5.63 billion of announced investment projects during the first seven months of 2026, associated with an expected 7,620 jobs.
Monterrey’s housing data line up with that investment cycle. Prices rose 9.1% in 2022, 11.3% in 2023, 10.9% in 2024, 9.4% in 2025 and another 8.3% during the first half of 2026.
The city also has practical constraints that make new supply harder to add quickly. Long commutes, water issues, infrastructure bottlenecks and the limited number of neighborhoods close to major employment corridors all put more pressure on well-located housing.
Nearshoring should therefore keep supporting Monterrey property prices as long as announced factories turn into actual employment. We would pay more attention to jobs created and facilities opened than to headline investment announcements alone.
Is nearshoring really driving property prices across Mexico?
Only partly. Nearshoring is helping property prices in several Mexican cities, but it cannot explain the national housing boom by itself.
The connection is strongest in places such as Monterrey and Tijuana, where industrial investment and employment growth overlap with tight housing supply. Both cities have repeatedly posted above-average appreciation.
Mexico also continues to attract unusually large investment flows. Foreign direct investment reached a record $40.87 billion in 2025, up 10.8% from the previous year, while first-quarter 2026 FDI reached another record for that period.
But the housing map does not follow the investment map neatly. Guadalajara is currently appreciating faster than Monterrey, while Puebla-Tlaxcala has also posted strong housing growth. Neither story can be reduced to the standard nearshoring narrative.
There is another complication: a large share of Mexico’s FDI is recorded in Mexico City because companies are headquartered there, even when the factories, warehouses or jobs appear elsewhere. Raw FDI totals therefore tell us less about local housing demand than they initially seem to.
Nearshoring is clearly one of the forces pushing selected markets higher. It works best as part of the explanation for Mexico, not the whole explanation.
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Is Mexico building enough homes to slow property prices?
Probably not. Mexico is building more housing than it did recently, but current construction still looks too small and too unevenly located to remove the pressure on prices.
According to Infonavit data using Mexico’s Single Housing Registry, around 138,600 new homes were produced in 2025, about 8.2% more than in 2024.
At the same time, CONAVI estimated that Mexico had roughly 38.36 million dwellings in 2024 and that 8.38 million, or 21.9%, were in housing-deficit conditions. That measure includes overcrowding, poor-quality housing and units needing replacement or improvement, so it does not mean Mexico is literally short 8.38 million houses for sale. It does show how large the underlying housing problem still is.
Building costs are also moving the wrong way for affordability. INEGI’s producer-price data showed construction costs rising 5.79% year over year by July 2026, faster than general inflation.
New homes have also been appreciating faster than used homes recently. SHF reported 8.3% growth for new housing and 7.5% for used housing during the first half of 2026. Yet used properties still dominate mortgage-backed transactions, accounting for almost two-thirds of activity during the first nine months of 2025.
Buyers are not simply being squeezed by expensive new developments. Resale housing is becoming more expensive too, which points to scarcity across the existing stock.
And location remains the hardest part of the supply problem. Adding homes on cheap land far from jobs does little to relieve competition for housing in central Guadalajara, Monterrey, Tijuana or Mexico City.
| Period | New housing price growth | Used housing price growth | Used share of transactions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9.9% | 8.1% | 60.0% |
| 2023 | 11.9% | 10.1% | 60.5% |
| 2024 | 9.6% | 8.9% | 62.8% |
| Jan–Sep 2025 | 8.4% | 8.7% | 63.8% |
| H1 2026 | 8.3% | 7.5% | Majority used |
Will high mortgage rates finally stop Mexico’s property market?
High mortgage rates are currently the biggest brake on Mexico’s property market, but they have already been high for years without stopping prices from rising.
SHF reported an average mortgage rate of 11.42% in the second quarter of 2026. The comparable rate was around 11.5% in late 2023 and 11.46% in late 2024.
Yet property prices rose 10.9% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025 during essentially the same expensive-credit environment.
The market adjusted in other ways. Some households bought smaller properties, relied on larger down payments, used Infonavit financing, combined incomes or simply stayed out of the market. Transaction activity weakened before prices did.
There is now some room for mortgage conditions to become less restrictive. Banco de México has already cut its policy rate substantially from the highs reached earlier in the tightening cycle and currently holds it at 6.5%.
Mortgage rates will not automatically fall at the same speed because long-term borrowing costs include bank funding, inflation expectations and credit risk. Even so, a gradual decline in mortgage rates would remove one of the main constraints on demand.
As seen above, Mexican home prices kept rising while mortgages were already expensive. If financing becomes meaningfully cheaper before housing supply catches up, demand could strengthen again.
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Can ordinary Mexican households still afford to buy property?
Affordability is now the clearest reason to expect Mexican property-price growth to slow.
INEGI’s latest national household survey put average current household income at 25,955 pesos per month in 2024. Meanwhile, the median mortgage-backed property valuation had already reached about 1.30 million pesos by the first half of 2026.
Take a simple example. A buyer purchasing a 1.30 million peso home with a 20% down payment would need to borrow roughly 1.04 million pesos.
At a mortgage rate close to SHF’s recent 11.42% average over 20 years, the monthly principal-and-interest payment would be about 11,000 pesos. That is roughly 42% of the 2024 average household’s monthly current income before adding insurance, maintenance, taxes and other housing costs.
The comparison is imperfect because national average income and mortgage buyers are not the same population, and household incomes have moved since the 2024 survey. Still, the order of magnitude is difficult to ignore.
Affordability pressure is also showing up at the cheaper end of the market. SHF’s economic-social housing category rose 10% during the first half of 2026, compared with 6.7% for middle and residential housing. When buyers are priced out of more expensive homes, more demand gets pushed into the limited stock they can still afford.
| Illustrative affordability test | Approximate amount |
|---|---|
| H1 2026 median home valuation | MXN 1.300m |
| 20% down payment | MXN 260k |
| Mortgage principal | MXN 1.040m |
| Illustrative mortgage rate | 11.42% |
| 20-year monthly payment | ≈ MXN 11,000 |
| 2024 average current household income | MXN 25,955/month |
| Mortgage payment / average income | ≈ 42% |
Could bad affordability actually make Mexican property prices fall?
It could in some places, but bad affordability is more likely to slow Mexican property prices than push the whole country into a decline.
Housing markets can absorb weaker demand for quite a while without large nominal price cuts. Owners can wait instead of selling. Developers can delay projects. Buyers can move farther out, accept smaller homes or remain renters.
Mexico has already shown that pattern. During the first nine months of 2025, SHF recorded 2.2% fewer appraisals than a year earlier while home prices were still rising by roughly 8.6%.
BBVA Research found a similar split in the mortgage market during 2025. The number of mortgages fell about 0.5%, while the amount originated dropped 2.9%, even though national housing prices continued to rise strongly.
That is a market where affordability is pushing buyers out before sellers are being forced to slash prices.
For a broad national decline, we would expect several things to deteriorate together: employment, mortgage delinquencies, forced sales and housing inventory. Those conditions are not currently appearing at sufficient scale to make a nationwide fall our base case.
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Are cheaper Mexican homes rising faster than expensive ones?
Yes. Cheaper Mexican homes are currently rising faster than middle and residential properties, and that makes the affordability problem more serious.
SHF’s economic-social housing index increased 10% during the first half of 2026, compared with 6.7% for middle and residential housing.
The gap was even larger in the first quarter, at 11% versus 7.5%.
This has been building for a while. Economic-social housing appreciated 10.7% in 2024, compared with 8.4% for the middle-residential category. In 2023, the two groups were much closer, at 10.7% and 11%.
Pressure is migrating toward the lower end of the market. Households squeezed by high mortgage rates and previous price increases compete harder for cheaper properties, while developers struggle to produce low-cost homes profitably when serviced land, materials and labor keep becoming more expensive.
The cheaper part of Mexico’s housing market may now have the toughest supply-demand imbalance of all.
Can government housing construction bring Mexican property prices down?
Government housing programs can slow price pressure at the lower end, but bringing Mexican property prices down nationally would require much more than building a large number of homes.
The difficult part is building the right homes in the right places.
A project on inexpensive peripheral land does not compete directly with an apartment near central Guadalajara or a house close to a major Monterrey employment corridor. Buyers care about commute times, water, electricity, schools, transport and access to jobs.
That is why national housing production can rise while scarce urban neighborhoods continue becoming more expensive.
Government construction could still make a real difference in economic-social housing, where prices are currently rising faster than the rest of the market. Increasing the supply of genuinely affordable homes near employment centers would reduce some of the competition now concentrated at the low end.
But changing the direction of Mexico’s entire housing index would require sustained supply growth across many cities at once. Current programs do not yet look large enough to do that.
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What would actually make property prices fall across Mexico?
A nationwide fall in Mexican property prices would probably need a serious economic or credit shock.
Employment would be the first place to look. Property markets become much weaker when households lose income and owners are forced to sell. Formal employment growth has slowed lately, but permanent workers registered with IMSS were still increasing around 1.4% year over year in the latest SHF economic snapshot.
Credit stress would be the second warning sign. BBVA has already pointed to higher Infonavit delinquency as something worth watching, particularly among lower-income borrowers. If arrears eventually translated into a large wave of forced sales, the effect on prices would become much more important.
Oversupply would be the third route to falling prices. For now, Mexico still has the opposite problem. CONAVI reports millions of homes in housing-deficit conditions, construction costs remain elevated and the cheapest housing category is appreciating faster than the national average.
A sharp reversal in industrial investment could also hurt markets such as Monterrey or Tijuana. But FDI reached a record level in 2025 and another first-half record in 2026, so that remains a downside risk rather than the situation we see today.
How fast are Mexican property prices likely to rise from here?
Mexican property prices are likely to keep rising, but a slower national pace of roughly 5% to 8% looks more believable now than another long run above 10%.
The latest national figure of 7.3% already points in that direction. It is below the 8.7% recorded in the first quarter and below most annual increases seen from 2022 through 2025.
Affordability is doing more damage. Mortgage rates remain above 11%, the median financed home is close to 1.30 million pesos and transaction activity has weakened.
At the same time, the forces supporting prices have not gone away. Construction remains expensive, affordable supply is tight, both new and used homes are still gaining value, and major employment centers continue attracting investment.
Regional gaps should widen further. Guadalajara, Monterrey, Tijuana and some supply-constrained industrial cities can keep outperforming, while the Valley of Mexico and slower regional markets may settle into much more modest growth.
| Scenario | What would drive it | Approximate nominal direction | Our reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renewed boom | Mortgage rates fall quickly while supply stays tight | 9%+ | Possible in selected cities |
| Base case | Moderate growth, easing credit, persistent housing scarcity | 5–8% | Most likely |
| Slow market | Weak growth and worsening affordability | 1–5% | Plausible in slower cities |
| National decline | Job losses, forced sales and broad credit stress | Below 0% | Unlikely for now |
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So, are property prices in Mexico likely to rise?
Yes. Property prices in Mexico are still more likely to rise than fall, although future growth should be slower and far more uneven than during the strongest recent years.
The national numbers still lean clearly upward. Prices rose 8.9% in 2022, 10.9% in 2023, 9.2% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025 before increasing another 7.9% during the first half of 2026.
The strongest evidence now comes from the shape of the market rather than any single headline number. New and used homes are both getting more expensive. Cheaper housing is rising faster than higher-priced housing. Construction remains costly. Several industrial and supply-constrained cities are still posting high single-digit or double-digit growth.
Affordability is the part that prevents us from expecting another easy 10% annual increase nationwide. Mortgage rates around 11%, rising purchase prices and weaker mortgage activity are already limiting how many households can buy.
As pointed out above, that pressure has so far shown up more in lower transaction activity and slower appreciation than in broad price cuts.
Our base case is straightforward: Mexican property prices continue rising, probably closer to the mid-to-high single digits nationally, while the gap between strong and weak cities becomes more important every year.
A nationwide property boom is becoming harder to justify. A nationwide crash looks even less convincing. The more likely outcome these days is a slower housing market where scarcity keeps pushing prices higher, just not as quickly or as evenly as before.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether property prices in Mexico are likely to keep rising by turning a broad forecasting question into a set of things we can actually observe: recent price momentum, how long that momentum has lasted, differences between cities, housing supply, construction costs, mortgage conditions, affordability, employment, investment and the conditions that could eventually push prices lower.
The SHF housing-price index is the backbone of the analysis because it gives us a consistent way to compare national prices, metropolitan areas, new and used homes, housing segments, median and average valuations, and changes over time. Recent readings are compared with several previous years so that one strong or weak quarter does not get mistaken for a real change in direction.
We do not treat every indicator as equally meaningful. Slower appreciation is different from falling prices; weaker mortgage activity can coexist with rising values; a housing-deficit estimate is not a literal count of homes missing from the for-sale market; and announced investment is less useful for housing demand than the jobs and facilities that eventually appear on the ground.
The affordability example is illustrative rather than a claim about every household. It combines the latest SHF median financed-home valuation with a 20% down payment, a 20-year mortgage at roughly the recent average rate, and INEGI’s latest national household-income benchmark to show the order of magnitude of the pressure facing buyers.
For local-market interpretation, we compare metropolitan price growth rather than assuming the national index describes every city. We also treat FDI carefully because investment can be recorded where a company is headquartered even when the factory, warehouse or jobs appear elsewhere.
The final judgment is not based on one headline number or one outside forecast. It comes from combining the strongest recent evidence across price momentum, supply, credit, affordability, investment and downside risks, then asking which overall outcome is most consistent with all of them at once.
Key sources used for this analysis include: SHF’s Q2 2026 housing-price index, SHF’s Q1 2026 housing-price index, SHF’s full-year 2025 release, SHF’s Q3 2025 release, SHF’s full-year 2024 release, SHF’s full-year 2023 release, SHF’s full-year 2022 release, SHF’s historical housing-price datasets, INEGI’s ENIGH 2024, INEGI’s National Producer Price Index, Banco de México’s monetary-policy decisions, SEDATU/SNIIV housing-production data, CONAVI’s institutional housing program, the Secretaría de Economía’s 2025 FDI release, the Secretaría de Economía’s H1 2026 FDI release, the Government of Nuevo León on announced investment projects, IMSS formal-employment data, and BBVA Research’s Mexico Real Estate Outlook for H1 2026.
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