Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Costa Rica Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Guanacaste's property market is included in our pack
Guanacaste remains Costa Rica's most sought-after province for property buyers, but the market has shifted from the frenzy of previous years to a more balanced environment where informed buyers can find real value.
This guide covers the current housing prices in Guanacaste, how they have evolved, and where experts expect them to go in the coming years.
We constantly update this blog post to reflect the latest market data and trends from official sources, established brokerages, and our own research.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Guanacaste.
Insights
- Guanacaste property prices per square meter dropped roughly 34% from 2024 peaks to early 2025, creating the first real buyer's market in years for those looking at beachfront homes and condos in the region.
- The Guanacaste Airport in Liberia handled nearly 1.9 million passengers in 2024, a 16% increase that directly fuels rental demand and property values in nearby beach towns like Tamarindo and Flamingo.
- Costa Rica's central bank cut interest rates to 3.25% in late 2025, making mortgage financing more accessible for buyers considering properties in Guanacaste's coastal communities.
- Well-located condos in Guanacaste typically command around $2,900 to $3,100 per square meter, while detached houses average closer to $1,600 to $2,200 per square meter depending on proximity to the beach.
- Inventory in Guanacaste increased by roughly 15% compared to 2024, giving buyers more negotiating power in areas like Tamarindo and Playas del Coco that were previously seller-dominated.
- The PAACUME water infrastructure project, backed by $425 million in financing, aims to address Guanacaste's long-standing water scarcity issues and will benefit over 700,000 residents in the coming years.
- Foreign buyers account for approximately 40% of real estate transactions in Costa Rica's coastal areas, with Americans and Canadians representing the largest share of international purchasers in Guanacaste.
- Nosara and Las Catalinas continue to command premium prices in Guanacaste due to strict development controls and strong global wellness and lifestyle demand that limits new supply.
What are the current property price trends in Guanacaste as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Guanacaste as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated average purchase price for residential properties in Guanacaste is approximately $650,000 (around €600,000 or 330 million Costa Rican colones), though this figure is heavily influenced by the province's concentration of beachfront and luxury homes.
To give you a better sense of per-meter costs, houses in Guanacaste currently average around $1,650 per square meter (roughly €1,520/m² or 840,000 colones/m²), while condos and apartments command higher prices at approximately $3,100 per square meter due to their proximity to beaches and resort amenities.
In terms of what most buyers actually pay, roughly 80% of residential purchases in Guanacaste fall between $250,000 and $1.2 million (€230,000 to €1.1 million), with entry-level condos starting around $220,000 and luxury beachfront villas easily exceeding $2 million.
How much have property prices increased in Guanacaste over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Guanacaste increased by an estimated 4% to 7% overall between January 2025 and January 2026, representing a significant slowdown from the explosive growth seen during the 2020-2023 period when prices surged by as much as 400% in some coastal areas.
This range reflects a two-speed market: prime beachfront condos and turnkey rental-ready homes in popular areas like Tamarindo and Nosara saw appreciation closer to 6% to 9%, while the oversupplied luxury segment and some inland locations experienced flat or slightly negative price movements in real terms.
The single most significant factor behind this moderation is the market normalization that followed the post-COVID boom, with inventory levels rising approximately 15% and buyers gaining leverage they simply did not have in previous years.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Guanacaste as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Guanacaste are Tamarindo/Langosta, Nosara (Playa Guiones and Pelada), and Las Catalinas, all of which combine strong international demand with limited room for new development in prime locations.
Tamarindo and Langosta are seeing annual price growth of approximately 8% to 10%, Nosara is experiencing similar gains in the 7% to 9% range, and Las Catalinas continues to appreciate at around 6% to 8% due to its master-planned scarcity and premium positioning.
The main demand driver these neighborhoods share is their combination of walkable beach lifestyle, proven short-term rental track records, and infrastructure constraints that prevent developers from flooding these micro-markets with new supply.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Guanacaste.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Costa Rica. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Guanacaste as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by value appreciation in Guanacaste places well-located condos and apartments at the top, followed by turnkey mid-market villas and detached homes, then townhomes in planned communities, and finally ultra-luxury properties which are experiencing the slowest growth.
Condos in prime beach locations like Tamarindo, Flamingo, and Playas del Coco are appreciating at approximately 7% to 10% annually, outpacing other property types by a meaningful margin.
The main reason condos are outperforming is their combination of lower entry price, strong short-term rental yields driven by tourism, and professional management options that make them attractive to both investors and lifestyle buyers who want rental income without the hassle of managing a larger property.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Guanacaste?
- How much should you pay for a house in Guanacaste?
- How much should you pay for a villa in Guanacaste?
- How much should you pay for a condo in Guanacaste?
- How much should you pay for lands in Guanacaste?
What is driving property prices up or down in Guanacaste as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the three main factors driving Guanacaste property prices are the Guanacaste Airport's growing passenger volumes (which set a new record of nearly 1.9 million passengers in 2024), sustained tourism demand that supports rental income expectations, and the post-boom market normalization that has increased inventory and given buyers more leverage.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on prices is the airport's continued expansion of direct flights from major North American cities, including new routes from Boston (now daily on JetBlue), Vancouver, and Winnipeg, which keeps international buyer demand structurally higher than it would be for a small regional market.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Guanacaste here.
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What is the property price forecast for Guanacaste in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Guanacaste in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Guanacaste are expected to increase by approximately 5% to 8% over the full calendar year, with prime rental-friendly properties outperforming the broader market.
The realistic range of forecasts from different analysts spans from a conservative 3% to 4% (for those concerned about oversupply in certain segments) up to 10% for the most optimistic projections focused on top-tier beach locations like Tamarindo and Nosara.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts is that Costa Rica's economy will continue growing at around 3.5% (as projected by the OECD and IMF) and that tourism arrivals to Guanacaste will remain robust with the airport's expanding route network.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Guanacaste.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Guanacaste in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Guanacaste are Tamarindo/Langosta, Flamingo/Potrero/Brasilito, Nosara (Guiones and Pelada), Playas del Coco/Ocotal, and Las Catalinas.
These top neighborhoods are projected to see price growth of 7% to 10% over the year, compared to the province-wide average of 5% to 8%, driven by their combination of beach access, established rental markets, and limited new supply in prime locations.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these areas is the continued expansion of direct flights into Guanacaste Airport from North American cities, which concentrates international buyer and renter demand in the most accessible and well-serviced beach communities.
One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Sámara/Carrillo, which offers a more affordable entry point than Tamarindo while still providing the "livable beach town" atmosphere that remote workers and lifestyle migrants increasingly seek.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Guanacaste.
What property types will appreciate the most in Guanacaste in 2026?
As of early 2026, condos and apartments in prime beach locations are expected to appreciate the most in Guanacaste, followed by turnkey mid-market villas and then townhomes in well-managed planned communities.
Prime condos in areas like Tamarindo, Flamingo, and Playas del Coco are projected to appreciate by 8% to 10% over the year, making them the top-performing property type for 2026.
The main demand trend driving this appreciation is the strength of short-term rental demand fueled by record tourism arrivals, combined with the fact that condos offer the lowest management burden for investors who want rental income without living full-time in Guanacaste.
Ultra-luxury villas are expected to underperform in 2026, with appreciation of just 0% to 4%, because the segment faces elevated inventory levels and buyers in this price range have significant negotiating leverage when multiple comparable properties compete for attention.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Costa Rica versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Guanacaste in 2026?
As of early 2026, lower interest rates are providing modest support to property prices in Guanacaste, though the impact is less pronounced than in purely domestic markets because many purchases are cash-funded or financed through foreign banks.
Costa Rica's central bank (BCCR) currently has its monetary policy rate at 3.25% following several cuts in 2025, and the OECD projects one more small cut in early 2026 before rates stabilize as inflation slowly rises toward the 3% target.
For buyers who do finance locally, a 1% change in mortgage rates typically shifts monthly payments by around 10% to 12%, which can translate into a 5% to 8% change in what financed buyers can afford to pay for a property in Guanacaste.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Costa Rica.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Guanacaste in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Guanacaste are a global economic slowdown that reduces travel and second-home demand, oversupply in specific micro-markets where too many similar condos or luxury homes are competing, and water or infrastructure constraints that could limit development or affect desirability in certain areas.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing is localized oversupply in segments like luxury condos and high-end villas, where late-2025 market reports already describe increased inventory and slower sales cycles that are shifting bargaining power toward buyers.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Guanacaste.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Guanacaste in 2026?
As of early 2026, it is generally a good time to buy a rental property in Guanacaste if you focus on well-located condos or turnkey homes in proven rental zones, because the market has normalized from the post-COVID frenzy and buyers now have more leverage to negotiate fair prices.
The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that Guanacaste Airport passenger volumes continue setting records, tourism demand remains robust, and you can purchase at prices that actually leave room for realistic rental yields instead of the stretched valuations of 2022-2023.
The strongest argument for waiting is that inventory levels have increased roughly 15% compared to 2024, so patient buyers may find even better opportunities as some sellers adjust their expectations further, especially in the oversupplied luxury segment.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Guanacaste.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Guanacaste.
Buying real estate in Guanacaste can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Guanacaste?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Guanacaste as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Guanacaste over the next 5 years is projected at approximately 30% to 45%, assuming the province's tourism and connectivity advantages remain intact.
The range of 5-year forecasts spans from a conservative 10% to 20% total (if global travel demand weakens materially or water constraints bite) up to an optimistic 55% (if tourism booms and supply stays tight in prime zones).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 5% to 8% compounded over the next 5 years in Guanacaste, which is healthy but more moderate than the explosive gains seen during the 2020-2023 period.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on is that Costa Rica maintains its trajectory of 3% to 4% annual GDP growth and that the Guanacaste Airport continues expanding its route network, keeping international buyer and tourist demand structurally elevated.
Which areas in Guanacaste will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The three areas in Guanacaste expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are Tamarindo/Langosta, Nosara (Guiones and Pelada), and Flamingo/Potrero/Brasilito, all of which combine strong international demand with constrained prime supply and maturing service infrastructure.
These top-performing areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of 40% to 55%, compared to the province-wide average of 30% to 45%, driven by their transition from "vacation spot" to "full lifestyle hub" with year-round services and established expat communities.
This 5-year outlook largely mirrors our shorter-term forecast because the same structural advantages that drive near-term performance (airport connectivity, tourism demand, supply constraints) become even more powerful over longer time horizons as these areas mature further.
One currently undervalued area with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years is Sámara/Carrillo, which offers significantly lower entry prices than Tamarindo while experiencing growing "livable beach town" demand from remote workers and retirees seeking a more authentic Costa Rican experience.
What property type will give the best return in Guanacaste over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, prime rental-friendly condos and apartments are expected to give the best total return over the next 5 years in Guanacaste, combining solid appreciation with consistent rental income from tourism.
The projected 5-year total return (appreciation plus rental income) for top-performing condos in locations like Tamarindo, Flamingo, and Coco is approximately 70% to 90%, assuming around 45% appreciation plus cumulative net rental yield of 25% to 45% over the period.
The main structural trend favoring condos is the combination of continued tourism growth (which supports rental demand), professional property management availability (which reduces ownership friction), and the fact that many international buyers prefer the lower entry cost and maintenance burden of condos over standalone homes.
For investors seeking the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years, turnkey mid-market detached homes in proven rental areas offer slightly lower upside but more stable valuations because they appeal to both lifestyle buyers and rental investors, providing liquidity even if short-term rental demand fluctuates.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Guanacaste over 5 years?
The three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Guanacaste property prices over the next 5 years are the PAACUME water supply project (a $425 million initiative to address water scarcity for over 700,000 residents), continued Guanacaste Airport expansion with new routes and terminal improvements, and road and bridge upgrades connecting beach communities to major highways.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Guanacaste typically command a 10% to 20% price premium compared to similar properties without these advantages, with the most significant gains seen in areas that move from "seasonal access" to "year-round livability."
The neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments are communities along the main coastal corridor (Playas del Coco, Flamingo, Tamarindo) that gain from airport expansion, and areas in the Tempisque basin that will see reliable water supply once PAACUME is completed.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Guanacaste in 5 years?
The projected population growth in Guanacaste is modest in raw numbers, but the real driver of property demand over the next 5 years will be the "quality" of incoming residents, specifically lifestyle migrants, remote workers, and retirees from North America and Europe who bring higher purchasing power than local population growth alone would suggest.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Guanacaste property demand is the growing cohort of remote workers and early retirees (ages 40-65) who can work from anywhere and are drawn to Costa Rica's combination of stable democracy, high quality of life, and favorable residency programs.
International migration patterns, particularly from the United States and Canada, are expected to continue supporting Guanacaste property values over 5 years, with foreign buyers currently accounting for approximately 40% of coastal transactions and Costa Rica's Digital Nomad Visa program attracting a steady stream of location-independent workers.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends are modern condos with good internet connectivity in established beach towns (Tamarindo, Nosara, Coco) and townhomes in planned communities that offer the "walkable lifestyle hub" experience that remote workers and active retirees increasingly seek.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Costa Rica compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Guanacaste?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Guanacaste as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Guanacaste over the next 10 years is projected at approximately 70% to 110%, assuming the province maintains its position as Costa Rica's premier coastal destination and successfully addresses infrastructure challenges.
The range of 10-year forecasts spans from a conservative 35% to 55% total (if climate constraints, water issues, or global travel shocks materially reduce demand) up to an optimistic 140% (if Guanacaste continues climbing the "global second-home destination" ladder).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 5.5% to 7.5% compounded over 10 years in Guanacaste, which would outpace both Costa Rica's national average and most Latin American real estate markets.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Guanacaste is whether the province can successfully manage its water and environmental constraints, since Guanacaste is the driest region in Costa Rica and climate change poses long-term risks to both livability and development capacity.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Guanacaste?
The three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Guanacaste over the next decade are Costa Rica's overall economic growth and stability trajectory, the country's tourism competitiveness and ability to sustain international arrivals, and the success of major water infrastructure investments like the PAACUME project in addressing the province's resource constraints.
The single long-term factor with the most positive impact on Guanacaste property values will be sustained tourism growth, because tourism directly drives rental demand, supports local services, and attracts the international buyers and lifestyle migrants who form the backbone of the coastal property market.
The single long-term factor posing the greatest structural risk to Guanacaste property values is water scarcity and climate constraints, because the province is already the driest in Costa Rica and any failure to address water infrastructure needs could cap development, reduce desirability, and create real challenges for both existing and prospective property owners.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Guanacaste.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Guanacaste, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why It's Authoritative | How We Used It |
|---|---|---|
| Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) | Costa Rica's central bank publishes official macro and financial data. | We used BCCR data to anchor the economic backdrop. We also referenced it for interest rate trends affecting mortgage affordability. |
| BCCR Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) | This is the official source for Costa Rica's policy rate history. | We used the TPM series to explain financing conditions. We translated rate movements into what buyers feel in monthly payments. |
| SUGEF Credit Information | SUGEF is Costa Rica's financial regulator with system-wide lending data. | We used SUGEF data to gauge housing credit growth. We also assessed currency mix and credit availability for Guanacaste buyers. |
| INEC Construction Statistics 2024 | INEC is Costa Rica's national statistics institute with official records. | We used INEC data to analyze housing supply and construction activity. We cross-checked supply pressure claims with official outputs. |
| INEC Construction Price Indexes | Official cost indexes that explain build and renovation cost pressure. | We used this to explain why replacement costs keep resale prices stable. We connected input cost movements to developer pricing in Guanacaste. |
| CFIA Construction Outlook | CFIA tracks permitted square meters, one of the clearest supply signals. | We used CFIA data to validate whether new supply is accelerating. We also contextualized how fast coastal projects are coming online. |
| Instituto Costarricense de Turismo (ICT) | ICT is Costa Rica's official tourism authority with arrival statistics. | We used ICT data to quantify tourism demand that supports rentals. We connected tourism cycles to which submarkets heat up first. |
| VINCI Airports Guanacaste | Official airport operator statement about traffic and connectivity. | We used this to show why Guanacaste is globally connected. We treat connectivity as a structural demand driver for coastal housing. |
| Global Property Guide | Established international source for residential price comparisons. | We used their per-square-meter data as a benchmark. We cross-referenced with local sources to validate Guanacaste price levels. |
| IMF DataMapper Costa Rica | IMF's standardized macro forecast database provides reliable projections. | We used IMF data to cross-check growth and inflation direction. We framed base case versus downside housing scenarios with IMF inputs. |
| World Bank Costa Rica MPO | World Bank Macro Poverty Outlooks summarize near-term risks consistently. | We used the MPO to validate macro assumptions and risks. We triangulated with IMF and BCCR so no single forecast dominates. |
| OECD Economic Survey Costa Rica 2025 | OECD surveys are deep assessments of structural constraints and reforms. | We used the OECD to explain structural factors shaping housing affordability. We incorporated their insights into our 5 to 10 year outlook. |
| Coldwell Banker Costa Rica | Established brokerage publishing regular market commentary and metrics. | We used their reports for market micro-data on price bands and liquidity. We cross-checked with official sources to avoid single-source bias. |
| CABEI PAACUME Project | Central American development bank financing major water infrastructure. | We used CABEI documentation to explain water infrastructure investments. We connected this to long-term development capacity in Guanacaste. |
| Tico Times | Established English-language news source covering Costa Rica real estate. | We used Tico Times for current market updates and airport data. We validated their reporting against official sources. |
| FocusEconomics Costa Rica | Consensus forecasts aggregating analyst views on macro indicators. | We used FocusEconomics for interest rate expectations. We incorporated consensus views into our rate impact analysis. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following:
- Is now a good time to invest in property in Guanacaste (Costa Rica)?