Summary
Yes, for Tulum as a whole: we count 3,845 homes for sale, a typical home takes ~12 months to sell, ~7,000 units are being built and ~80% of homes sit empty most of the year. Tulum Beach and Tulum Country Club sit at the other end, with 56 homes for sale on the beach and a typical sale taking ~5 months in the country club.
The imbalance comes from a building cycle that ran far ahead of demand. Tulum's housing stock went from about 11,500 to over 20,000 homes in six years while sales halved, and El Economista reported in July 2026 that annual sales fell from 3,487 homes in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025.
That new stock sits in places built for investors. Aldea Zama has 962 homes for sale, and Aldea Tulum has the highest share of homes built since 2019, at ~90%. Tumben Kaa looks less stretched because most of its homes are older and houses there do better than flats.
Selling times make the split clearer. La Veleta sells much faster than Centro Tulum, and Tulum Country Club faster again, so the citywide average hides markets moving at very different speeds.
Rentals are crowded too. AirROI put Tulum's Airbnb occupancy at 30% over the 12 months to October 2026, below Playa del Carmen, and rents are falling in most condo-heavy areas; Region 15 is the exception, with rents up 4%.
The adjustment has started, but it is early. Homes for sale across Tulum are about 8% lower than a year ago, mainly because unsold pre-sale stock shrank, while short-rental listings grew about 5%. Banks are lending less for construction, but owners face a large pool of competing units.
The coast follows a different pattern. Tulum Beach has little new construction and no fall in resale prices, while federal environmental rules bar new private works in parts of the protected coast. Tankah and Bahia Soliman also escape the inland building wave, although very few homes are listed there.
So the answer is yes for Tulum as a whole, but the excess sits in similar investor condos where building outran demand. Scarce beachfront, finished residential communities and local family housing are selling much better.
Our Tulum condo-supply table by area
This table gives our verdict for each of the 15 areas of Tulum we track, with the figures behind it: homes for sale, time to sell, new homes being built, the share built since 2019 and the share empty most of the year.
It also shows the latest resale-price and rent changes, so readers can see whether heavy supply is already turning into weaker prices, slower sales or softer rents.
If you want real answers from the field about a specific home or street, ask a pro in Tulum for free.
| Area |
Verdict our short answer |
Homes for Sale right now iMonadLuxury de-duplicated for-sale count per area; small areas from its price page (apartments only) or Propiedades.com, shown with ~. |
Time to Sell a typical home, monthsiMedian days listed per area (MonadLuxury 7 Nov 2026) × 1.4 (city ratio departed/active), shown as months; areas without a count derived from neighbours. |
New Homes Being Built now iLots / Some / Few from presale projects per area (Riviera Audit list), developer pages and press; city in units. |
Built Since 2019 share of today's homesiCity reference figure ~45%; new condo districts (Aldea Tulum ~6,000 flats built 2021-25, Region 15, La Veleta) higher, old town lower. |
Empty Most of the Year share of homes iCity reference figure ~80% for the new housing stock; lower where locals live (Centro, Villas Tulum, Tumben Kaa), higher in investor condo and beach areas. |
Price Change last 12 months, resaleiCity reference figure ~−2%; each area from its Propiedades.com 18-month change scaled to 12 months, smoothed with demand signals (broker requests, days on market). |
Rent Change last 12 months iPropiedades.com area change (18 months), checked against manager quotes (Villas Tulum −21 to −33%). |
Why what drives the verdict here |
Data confidence iHigh: direct data for this area. Medium: one strong source, or several pointing the same way, with our own estimate. Low: few signals, an order of magnitude. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TulumChecked Nov 2026 | Yes, too many | 3,845 | ~12 mo | ~7,000 units | ~45% | ~80% | −2% | −8% | Too many homes are chasing too few buyers here. Lots of new condos, fewer buyers and softer tourism since 2024. Resale prices sit about 15% below their peak. | High |
| Tulum Beach | No | 56 | ~9 mo | Few | ~20% | ~95% | 0% | −5% | There is no condo glut here. Beachfront is scarce because building is restricted, so the few homes for sale hold their price. Homes take about 9 months to sell. | Medium |
| Selva Zama | Getting crowded | — | ~12 mo | Some | ~70% | ~90% | −3% | −8% | Supply is heavy but people still want to live here. A newer, pricier jungle area next to Aldea Zama with little built around it yet. Homes take about 12 months to sell. | Medium |
| Cobá Road | Getting crowded | 65 | ~18 mo | Some | — | ~85% | −3% | −8% | Supply is heavy but people still want to live here. Jungle lots and villas along the road to Cobá, west of town, where you need a car and homes sell slowly. | Medium |
| Aldea Zama | Yes, too many | 962 | ~13 mo | Lots | ~55% | ~85% | −1% | −8% | Too many homes are chasing too few buyers here. Still the area foreign buyers ask for most, but with nearly a thousand homes for sale it is a buyer's market. | High |
| Centro Tulum | Getting crowded | 836 | ~20 mo | Some | ~15% | ~55% | −6% | −12% | Supply is heavy but people still want to live here. Where people actually live, with shops and local food, but resale listings sit for well over a year. | High |
| Region 8 | Yes, too many | 58 | ~17 mo | Some | ~65% | ~90% | −3% | −10% | Too many homes are chasing too few buyers here. Close to the beach road but still half building site, with many lots and slow sales. Homes take about 17 months to sell. | Medium |
| Villas Tulum | No | 82 | ~11 mo | Few | ~25% | ~50% | +5% | −12% | There is no condo glut here. A quieter residential area with few new projects, where prices held but rents were cut. Homes take about 11 months to sell. | Medium |
| La Veleta | Getting crowded | 656 | ~9 mo | Lots | ~60% | ~80% | +2% | −6% | Supply is heavy but people still want to live here. The liveliest area with cafes and shops, still crowded with condos and some unpaved streets. Homes take about 9 months to sell. | High |
| Region 15 | Yes, too many | 259 | ~11 mo | Lots | ~75% | ~90% | −1% | +4% | Too many homes are chasing too few buyers here. Hundreds of near‑identical studios and 1-beds were built here, and demand for them has dried up. Homes take about 11 months to sell. | High |
| Tulum Country Club | No | 193 | ~5 mo | Few | ~35% | ~75% | +2% | −5% | There is no condo glut here. A gated golf community outside town, finished and calm, where homes sell faster than in town. Homes take about 5 months to sell. | Medium |
| Holistika | Getting crowded | 20 | 24+ mo | Some | ~70% | ~85% | −3% | −8% | Supply is heavy but people still want to live here. A small wellness enclave in the jungle, liked by buyers but with very few sales. Homes can sit unsold for two years. | Medium |
| Tumben Kaa | Getting crowded | 64 | ~13 mo | Few | ~30% | ~50% | −3% | −6% | Supply is heavy but people still want to live here. A local residential area, cheaper than the condo zones, with houses doing better than flats. Homes take about 13 months to sell. | Medium |
| Aldea Tulum | Yes, too many | ~40 | ~15 mo | Lots | ~90% | ~60% | −6% | 0% | Too many homes are chasing too few buyers here. A huge development of about 6,000 small flats bought to rent out, many now empty. Homes take about 15 months to sell. | Medium |
| Fewer listings, rough estimates ?We're still digging into these areas. Once we find solid sources, they'll move up into the main table. | ||||||||||
| Tankah | No | ~30 | ~12 mo | Few | — | ~90% | +1% | — | There is no condo glut here. A thin beachfront market north of town, with condo projects halted for building without environmental permits. Homes take about 12 months to sell. | Medium |
| Bahia Soliman | No | ~20 | ~12 mo | Few | — | ~90% | 0% | — | There is no condo glut here. Mostly private beach villas, very few listings, and two condo projects seized by environmental authorities. Homes take about 12 months to sell. | Medium |
Homes for sale across Tulum are about 8% lower than a year ago, mostly because unsold pre-sale stock shrank (6,538 units vs 7,092). Short-rental listings grew about 5% (AirROI).
How we got these numbers. We read 650 signals from 124 websites on Tulum: portal statistics (MonadLuxury, Propiedades.com, Riviera Audit), industry data (InfoHabitat, Softec, Habitaria), census, local press, agents and owners. The city figures are the anchor; each area is derived from its own listing counts, days on market, new projects and the way locals and agents describe it.
Source: TheLatinvestor property database, November 2026.
Ask a Tulum pro to check
the developer, for free.
They know which developers deliver on time.
Message a proAre there too many condos in Tulum now?
Yes: Tulum has more condos than buyers and tenants are taking, with 3,845 homes for sale, a typical home taking ~12 months to sell, ~7,000 units being built and ~80% of homes empty most of the year.
Our verdict is not the same everywhere. Of our 15 areas, 4 have too many homes, 6 are getting crowded and 5 show no glut, so the citywide yes hides a split market.
Construction accelerated first, then sales weakened while thousands of units were being delivered. Across Tulum, resale prices are down 2% over the last 12 months and rents are down 8%, so sellers and landlords already feel the competition.
Tulum gets plenty of visitors, and many homes here were always meant to be second homes. But the short-term rental market is crowded too, with Tulum's Airbnb occupancy below Playa del Carmen's over the past year.
So the glut goes beyond seasonal vacancy. Tulum has real tourism and real buyers, but it built more investor housing than they take up at today's pace.
Did Tulum build condos faster than buyers could absorb?
Yes: Tulum built homes much faster than buyers could absorb them, and the gap became obvious once sales slowed.
The housing stock went from about 11,500 to over 20,000 homes in six years while sales halved. El Economista added the timeline in July 2026, citing InfoHabitat data based on Softec: construction peaked in 2023, and sales per project fell after that.
The product changed during the boom too. El Economista reported that home prices rose 39% between 2021 and 2025 while construction costs rose 47%, and developers responded partly by shrinking apartments. That kept entry prices within reach but produced more compact condos aimed at the same investor.
The result shows in Region 15 and Aldea Tulum, where recent construction dominates today's stock. Many units were sold on the same idea: buy a small condo, rent it to tourists and ride a fast-growing destination. Once rental occupancy and sales stopped climbing, owners started competing with new projects and with one another.
Tulum can work through that stock, but sales have to do the work now. The homes already exist; slower launches only prevent another wave.
The table below shows how construction, stock and sales moved in Tulum, from the InfoHabitat study quoted by El Economista and our own counts.
| Measure | Period | Before | Latest | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units under construction | 2017 vs 2023 | 1,466 | 13,266 | InfoHabitat, July 2026 |
| Homes for sale | 2019 vs 2023 | 3,243 | 6,340 | InfoHabitat, July 2026 |
| Homes sold per year | 2023 vs 2025 | 3,487 | 1,711 | InfoHabitat, July 2026 |
| Monthly sales per project | 2022 vs 2025 | 1.4 | 0.9 | InfoHabitat, July 2026 |
| Unsold pre-sale units | A year apart | 7,092 | 6,538 | Our data |
Is Tulum's condo glut starting to clear now?
Only just: Tulum's condo glut is starting to shrink, but the stock is far too large to call the adjustment finished.
Homes for sale across Tulum are about 8% lower than a year ago, mainly because unsold pre-sale units fell. That pre-sale count comes from project inventories, not from portal listings, so it is not comparable with the number of homes listed for sale. The drop is one of the first signs that the pipeline is no longer growing the way it did during the boom.
Lenders are pulling back too. El Economista reported in November 2026 that oversupply in Tulum had pushed banks to cut construction lending and mortgages there. Across Quintana Roo, the value of bank mortgage lending fell 7% from January to August 2026 against the same period a year earlier.
The rental pool is moving the other way. Short-rental listings grew about 5%, so units that are hard to sell end up competing for tourists, in a market where most rentable nights already go unfilled.
So the market is clearing through several channels at once: fewer pre-sale units, tighter credit, longer sales and softer rents in many condo zones. None of them needs a crash in asking prices. Owners who can wait keep their price and accept a longer sale, while developers launch less.
The direction is better than a year ago, but buyers are entering a market with a large stock and thousands of units under construction.
Is Tulum's oversupply mostly a studio and one-bedroom problem?
Mostly, yes: Tulum's biggest surplus sits in small investor condos, while areas with more houses and more year-round life look less crowded.
Region 15 is the clearest example. ~75% of today's homes there were built since 2019, many of them near-identical studios and 1-beds. Region 15 is also the only area in our table where rents rose, so people do rent these units; the sales market simply has too many similar ones.
Aldea Tulum goes further, with the highest share of recent homes in our table and about 6,000 small flats bought to rent out. Resale prices there fell 6% over the last 12 months.
Tumben Kaa gives the contrast. Only ~30% of its homes were built since 2019, and houses do better than flats there. The area is getting crowded, but family houses face less direct competition from the investor-condo pipeline.
The short-term rental market has the same shape. AirROI's October 2026 Riviera Maya data says apartments and condos make up 76% of active Airbnb homes across the five towns it tracks, and studios and 1-bedroom homes made up 56% of the portfolio of one large Tulum manager it profiled.
The table below shows our areas from the largest share of recent homes to the smallest, with how many sit empty and where rents went.
| Area | Built since 2019 | Empty most year | Rent change | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldea Tulum | ~90% | ~60% | 0% | Too many |
| Region 15 | ~75% | ~90% | +4% | Too many |
| Selva Zama | ~70% | ~90% | −8% | Getting crowded |
| Holistika | ~70% | ~85% | −8% | Getting crowded |
| Region 8 | ~65% | ~90% | −10% | Too many |
| La Veleta | ~60% | ~80% | −6% | Getting crowded |
| Aldea Zama | ~55% | ~85% | −8% | Too many |
| Tumben Kaa | ~30% | ~50% | −6% | Getting crowded |
| Centro Tulum | ~15% | ~55% | −12% | Getting crowded |
Ask an agent who knows
Tulum, for free.
They know what similar homes really sold for.
Message a pro
Why is Aldea Zama still crowded if foreign buyers want it?
Because Aldea Zama draws plenty of buyer interest but even more supply: it has 962 homes for sale, the most in our table, and a typical home takes ~13 months to sell.
The neighborhood is one of the first names foreign buyers hear in Tulum. It is established, close to the hotel zone and far more finished than the newer jungle districts. That keeps viewings and inquiries coming; supply is just larger than the pool of buyers ready to sign.
A portal sees the same pile. Propiedades.com showed 1,549 active apartment listings for Aldea Zama in October 2026, against 977 for La Veleta and 257 for Region 15 Kukulcan. Those totals cover a different set of listings from ours, but they show the same concentration of choice in Aldea Zama.
Prices have held up better than the stock suggests. Aldea Zama's resale prices are down 1% over the last 12 months, much less than in Centro Tulum or Aldea Tulum, so sellers are giving up time before giving up price.
That fits a second-home market where many owners can afford to wait, using the condo now and then and renting it to tourists while holding an asking price that takes longer to clear.
So Aldea Zama can stay popular with foreign buyers and still have too many condos. Popularity keeps the market active; it does not remove the competing listings.
Why does Centro Tulum take so much longer to sell than La Veleta?
Because Centro Tulum's older homes fit the investor demand that moves condos in La Veleta less well: a typical Centro Tulum home takes ~20 months to sell, La Veleta ~9 months.
Centro is where everyday Tulum happens: shops, local restaurants, services and year-round residents. Only ~15% of Centro's homes were built since 2019, the lowest share in our table, while La Veleta's stock is much newer and was largely designed for foreign buyers and vacation rentals.
Propiedades.com sees more pressure in Centro too. In October 2026 the portal said the median apartment price in Tulum Centro had fallen 9.9% from April 2025 to October 2026, against 3.6% for Tulum overall. Its period and listings differ from ours, where Centro's resale prices are down 6% over 12 months, but both describe a softer market there.
La Veleta has its own problems: plenty of condos, more construction and some unfinished streets. Yet its cafes, shops and expat rental market keep demand moving, and its resale prices are up 2% despite 656 homes for sale.
Centro has 836 homes for sale and the slowest selling time in our table. Its older stock competes with a lot of newer housing nearby, and its buyers are mostly not the rental investors who drove Tulum's last building cycle.
The table below shows our areas from the slowest to sell to the fastest, with the number of homes listed and the resale price change.
| Area | Months to sell | Homes for sale | Price change | New homes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holistika | 24+ | 20 | −3% | Some |
| Centro Tulum | ~20 | 836 | −6% | Some |
| Cobá Road | ~18 | 65 | −3% | Some |
| Region 8 | ~17 | 58 | −3% | Some |
| Aldea Tulum | ~15 | ~40 | −6% | Lots |
| Aldea Zama | ~13 | 962 | −1% | Lots |
| Region 15 | ~11 | 259 | −1% | Lots |
| Villas Tulum | ~11 | 82 | +5% | Few |
| La Veleta | ~9 | 656 | +2% | Lots |
| Tulum Beach | ~9 | 56 | 0% | Few |
| Tulum Country Club | ~5 | 193 | +2% | Few |
Is Tulum Beach protected from the condo glut?
Yes: Tulum Beach avoids the inland condo glut, with few homes for sale, few new homes being built and resale prices that have not moved in 12 months.
Federal rules explain much of the scarcity. CONANP's file for Tulum National Park says the protected area covers 664.32 hectares, and the management program published in the Diario Oficial in January 2024 bans new private or public construction in its preservation subzones. Those rules do not freeze every coastal plot, but they make supply far tighter than in Region 15 or La Veleta.
Enforcement is active too. PROFEPA has closed construction in Tulum's coastal zone where projects lacked federal environmental authorization, including works on dunes, wetlands and mangroves, and in Tankah IV inspectors documented works damaging the dunes and coastal scrub.
Tulum Beach also shows why vacancy needs context. ~95% of its homes sit empty most of the year, the highest share in our table, yet it has no condo glut. Many beachfront homes are second homes or tourist rentals, and tight supply spares owners a constant stream of equivalent new projects.
A typical beach home takes ~9 months to sell. An expensive home can sit for a long time, but buyers face far fewer interchangeable new units behind today's sellers.
Do Tulum's empty homes mean there is no real demand?
No: Tulum's empty homes show that year-round demand is much smaller than the stock, while tourism and second homes still bring real demand.
Vacancy alone does not tell the story. Tulum Beach has the most empty homes in our table and Tumben Kaa the fewest, at ~50%, yet neither is among our oversupplied areas.
Visitors keep coming, in smaller numbers. Expansión reported in October 2026 that Tulum received 879,229 tourists from January to July 2026, down 8.6% on 2025, after Quintana Roo's tourism ministry had already counted 961,560 for the same months of 2025 against 1,009,303 in 2024.
The airport made access easier. A federal Grupo Mundo Maya program says Tulum airport handled 1,233,459 passengers in 2024, its first full year, but the housing boom had already built for much faster growth.
So high vacancy does not mean a deserted town. Tulum has plenty of visitors; it also has far more homes competing for them than during the boom, and that turns normal resort vacancy into a supply problem.
The table below shows the main demand figures for Tulum, from official sources and the platforms that track short-term rentals.
| Measure | Period | Figure | Comparison | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tourists | Jan–Jul 2026 | 879,229 | −8.6% on 2025 | Expansión, Oct. 2026 |
| Tourists | Jan–Jul 2025 | 961,560 | 1,009,303 in 2024 | Sedetur Quintana Roo |
| Airport passengers | 2024 | 1,233,459 | First full year | Grupo Mundo Maya |
| Airbnb stays, Tulum | 12 months to Oct. 2026 | 88,055 | 115,819 in Playa del Carmen | AirROI |
| Airbnb occupancy, Tulum | 12 months to Oct. 2026 | 30% | 38% in Playa del Carmen | AirROI |
Ask an agent who knows
Tulum, for free.
They know how much room sellers usually leave.
Message a proWhy are Tulum rents falling if tourists are still coming?
Because Tulum has added rental supply faster than tourism has grown: across Tulum, rents are down 8% over the last 12 months even though visitors keep arriving in large numbers.
The fall is strongest where condo supply is deepest. Centro Tulum and Villas Tulum both have rents down 12%, Region 8 is down 10%, and Aldea Zama is down 8%, while Region 15 stands out with rents up 4%.
AirROI's figures show the pressure. Tulum had a real flow of Airbnb guests over the past year, but not enough booked nights to keep every rental performing.
Short-rental supply is growing as well, by about 5% in our research, even as homes for sale fall. Owners who cannot sell at their price keep the unit in the vacation-rental pool, adding competition for the same guest nights.
Region 15's rise keeps the story from being too simple. The area has too many condos in our view, yet renters pay more than a year ago: a crowded sales market can live with firmer rents when tenant demand and asking prices move differently.
For now, falling rents in most condo-heavy areas are one of the clearest signs that tourism has not caught up with supply. Landlords simply face far more competition for each booking.
Are Tulum developers finally slowing down?
Yes: Tulum developers and lenders are slowing the next wave of supply, although the pipeline already under way is large.
Unsold pre-sale stock fell from 7,092 units to 6,538 in a year, helping bring homes for sale across Tulum down about 8%. Developers are no longer piling up unsold stock at the boom's pace.
Banks reinforce that change. The November 2026 El Economista report tied the cut in construction credit and mortgages in Tulum directly to the excess supply.
The backlog explains why slower building takes time to show. A December 2025 El Economista article, citing The Red Search's project tracker, counted 303 active developments and 11,295 units of inventory in preconstruction projects. Those figures cover a different set of projects from ours, but they show how much supply was already in motion before credit tightened.
Environmental rules add another brake near the coast. SEMARNAT's impact-assessment rules require federal authorization for real-estate projects that affect coastal ecosystems, and the national park's management plan bars new private works in preservation areas.
The slowdown is good news for a market with too much stock, but it mainly affects what gets launched next. Today's owners keep competing with finished units and projects too far along to stop.
Which Tulum areas still have too many condos?
Aldea Zama, Region 8, Region 15 and Aldea Tulum have the clearest oversupply in Tulum, while 5 areas in our table show no glut and 6 are getting crowded.
The middle group matters. Selva Zama, Cobá Road, Centro Tulum, La Veleta, Holistika and Tumben Kaa have heavy supply, slow sales or both, but people still want to live there, which keeps them from looking as saturated as the four problem areas.
The extremes make the split easy to see. Aldea Zama has the most listings in our table and Bahia Soliman the fewest, at ~20. Tulum Country Club sells fastest and few new homes are being built there, so its finished stock clears much better than the investor condos in town.
The coast is the other exception. Federal environmental limits make it hard to repeat the inland building model on Tulum Beach, Tankah and Bahia Soliman. Villas Tulum also has few new projects, and its resale prices rose 5%, the strongest change in our table.
Tankah and Bahia Soliman need more caution because so few homes are listed: we estimate ~30 for sale in Tankah, so a handful of listings can move the picture far more than in Aldea Zama or Centro Tulum.
So, are there too many condos in Tulum now?
Yes: Tulum has too many condos for the buyers and tenants taking them, with thousands of homes for sale, ~7,000 units being built and a typical sale taking ~12 months.
The building cycle explains most of it. Tulum added housing for years on the bet that tourism, foreign buying and vacation rentals would keep growing fast. Construction was running at a huge scale by 2023 and sales weakened after, leaving new projects, recent resales and finished investor units competing at the same time.
The type of home matters almost as much as the amount. Region 15, Aldea Tulum and parts of Aldea Zama hold large numbers of compact condos aimed at vacation rentals and foreign investors. Tumben Kaa's houses and Tulum Country Club's finished homes sell better, so the pressure sits in the most repeatable condo product.
The exceptions are real. Tulum Beach has very few homes for sale and no fall in resale prices, and federal environmental rules keep the coast far harder to build out than inland Tulum. Tankah and Bahia Soliman also escape the building wave, although so few homes are listed that a handful entering or leaving the market changes the picture.
Demand has not vanished: Airbnb stays run in the tens of thousands a year, and the airport has made Tulum easier to reach. Yet falling rents in most condo-heavy areas show that tourism is absorbing the stock too slowly.
The correction has begun. Pre-sale stock is lower, homes for sale are fewer than a year ago and bank credit is tightening. Those changes slow future supply; the existing stock will take longer to clear.
So the answer is yes for Tulum as a whole, but a small inland investment condo enters a much more crowded market than a beachfront home, a house in a local neighborhood or a finished home in Tulum Country Club. The thing to watch is whether sales and rental occupancy improve faster than the remaining pipeline reaches the market, especially in the inland condo districts.
Our methodology
Our data runs through November 2026. We track the Tulum housing market area by area: homes for sale, typical time to sell, homes being built, the share of today's homes built since 2019, the share empty most of the year, resale price changes and rent changes.
We read 650 signals on Tulum from 124 independent websites, including portal statistics from MonadLuxury, Propiedades.com and Riviera Audit, industry data from InfoHabitat, Softec and Habitaria, census material, local press, agents and owners. The citywide figures are our anchor; each area is then built from its own listing counts, selling times, new projects and the way locals and agents describe it.
High confidence means strong sources agree. Medium means one strong source, or several sources pointing the same way, with our own estimate per area built from the citywide figure and what we know about that area. Cells we cannot estimate well are left empty.
Figures marked with "~" are estimates, to be read as orders of magnitude. Portals also count stock differently: one includes duplicate ads, pre-sales or a wider neighborhood that another leaves out, so an outside total can differ from ours while measuring a slightly different pool of homes. Unsold pre-sale units come from project inventories, not from listings, so that count is not comparable with the homes listed for sale.
Tulum is unusually hard to treat as one market. A beachfront second home, a Region 15 studio, a Centro apartment and a house in Tumben Kaa attract different buyers and are used differently. We use the citywide result to answer the title, then judge each area on its own supply, selling time, construction and rents.
A sceptical reader may ask whether high vacancy is normal in a resort town. That is why we never call an area oversupplied on vacancy alone: we read it with selling times, listings, new construction, resale prices, rents and the type of home being built. Tulum Beach is the clearest case, with high seasonal vacancy but little new supply and no fall in resale prices.
Key sources used for this analysis include July 2026 InfoHabitat and Softec analysis of Tulum construction, inventory, sales and absorption, November 2026 report on weaker housing credit and Tulum's oversupply correction, December 2025 report on active Tulum developments and preconstruction inventory, October 2026 portal data for Tulum Centro and comparable neighborhoods, Airbnb supply, stays and occupancy data for Tulum and Riviera Maya peers, October 2026 Mexico short-term-rental market data including Tulum, October 2026 bedroom mix for a large Tulum short-term-rental manager, October 2026 report on Tulum tourist arrivals and unsold housing, Quintana Roo tourism ministry visitor estimates for Tulum, January to July 2025, Federal Grupo Mundo Maya program with Tulum airport 2024 passenger traffic, CONANP file for Tulum National Park, area and management-plan status, Diario Oficial summary of the Tulum National Park management program and construction restrictions, PROFEPA enforcement on unauthorized construction affecting coastal ecosystems in Tulum and Tankah and SEMARNAT environmental-impact filing summarizing federal authorization requirements for coastal real-estate development.
Spotted an error? Tell us, we fix it within days.