What are the long-term predictions for house prices in Cancún?

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We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Cancún. If you'd like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

What has been the historical trend of house prices in Cancún over the past 10–20 years?

Cancún house prices have experienced persistent and significant growth over the past two decades, with values more than doubling since 2005.

From 2005 to 2019, the House Price Index for Quintana Roo (which includes Cancún) increased from 48.9 to 115.6 based on a 2017=100 baseline. This represents more than a 100% increase over 14 years, establishing Cancún as one of Mexico's strongest performing residential markets.

The period between 2020 and 2024 saw even more dramatic acceleration, with average house prices in Cancún and the wider southeast Mexico region rising by 42-51%. This surge was driven by accelerated urbanization, demand from relocating families during the pandemic, and increased foreign investor activity taking advantage of favorable exchange rates.

As of September 2025, this upward trajectory shows no signs of significant deceleration, with Quintana Roo recording an 11.8% price increase in just the first half of 2025.

What is the current average price per square meter for houses in Cancún?

As of June 2025, the median price per square meter for houses in Cancún is approximately MXN 28,878.

This figure represents a significant premium compared to many other Mexican markets, reflecting Cancún's status as a premier tourist destination and international investment hub. For context, apartments in the same market command even higher prices, with a median of MXN 62,138 per square meter.

Current market forecasts indicate that average house prices could surpass MXN 41,000 per square meter by 2026 if the present growth trends continue. This projection is based on sustained tourism demand, ongoing infrastructure development, and continued foreign investment flows into the region.

The pricing reflects Cancún's unique position as both a residential market for local population growth and an international investment destination, creating multiple demand sources that support premium valuations.

How have annual price growth rates changed in Cancún in the past five years?

Annual price growth rates in Cancún have accelerated dramatically since 2021, consistently outpacing Mexico's national average.

The growth trajectory shows remarkable acceleration: 2021-2022 saw 14.6% growth for Quintana Roo, followed by 17.3% in 2022-2023 specifically for Cancún/Benito Juárez municipality. The 2023-2024 period recorded 13.4% growth, while 2024-2025 projections indicate approximately 14% growth.

These figures substantially exceed Mexico's national annual average of 8-9% during the same period, highlighting Cancún's exceptional market performance. The sustained double-digit growth reflects the convergence of multiple positive factors including tourism recovery, infrastructure investment, and international demand.

As of September 2025, Quintana Roo has already posted an 11.8% increase in the first half of the year, suggesting the strong growth momentum continues into the current year.

What are the most credible forecasts for Cancún house prices over the next 5, 10, and 20 years?

Credible forecasts indicate continued strong growth for Cancún house prices, though with expected moderation over longer time horizons.

The 5-year outlook through 2030 represents a consensus among local analysts and property data providers, anticipating annual price increases of 8-12% with higher rates expected for luxury and beachfront properties. The 10-20 year forecasts become more speculative but suggest Cancún will maintain above-average price growth compared to the rest of Mexico, though with gradual moderation as markets mature and affordability pressures increase.

What is the projected annual percentage growth rate for house prices in Cancún according to local and international analysts?

Local and international analysts project annual house price growth of 8-12% for Cancún through 2030, with longer-term moderation expected.

Short to mid-term projections for 2025-2030 consistently point to annual growth rates in the 8-12% range according to multiple analyst sources. This represents a slight moderation from the 13-17% rates seen in recent years, but still maintains well above-average performance compared to most global markets.

International property consultancies and local market experts base these projections on continued tourism growth, infrastructure development including the Maya Train, sustained foreign investment, and population growth of nearly 2% annually. The consensus recognizes that some cooling from recent peak rates is natural and healthy for long-term market sustainability.

For the 2030s and 2040s, more conservative projections of 5-8% annual growth are considered realistic as the market matures, supply responses improve, and the initial boom phase transitions to more stable long-term growth patterns.

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How do predicted house price trends in Cancún compare with other major Mexican resort cities?

Cancún leads all major Mexican resort cities in predicted house price growth, consistently outperforming established markets like Puerto Vallarta and emerging destinations.

Cancún and the broader Riviera Maya region, including Playa del Carmen and Tulum, significantly outpace all other Mexican resort markets for house price appreciation. Tulum shows the highest recent growth rates but with greater volatility, while Cancún offers strong growth with more market stability and liquidity.

Puerto Vallarta, as a mature resort market, shows more moderate but stable growth patterns. Mérida, while growing due to expat demand, is less tourism-driven and therefore shows lower but more consistent appreciation rates.

What are the main economic drivers influencing long-term property prices in Cancún?

Tourism dominance, foreign investment flows, infrastructure development, and population growth represent the four primary economic drivers supporting long-term property price appreciation in Cancún.

Tourism serves as the fundamental economic engine, with Cancún consistently ranking as Mexico's top tourist destination, attracting millions of international visitors annually. This creates sustained demand for both vacation properties and investment properties targeting the rental market, with occupancy rates often exceeding 80%.

Foreign investment, particularly from US, Canadian, and European buyers, provides significant capital flows that support premium pricing. The favorable peso exchange rate has amplified this effect, making Cancún properties attractive to international buyers seeking both lifestyle and investment returns.

Major infrastructure projects, including the Maya Train operational from late 2024, new airport expansions, and road improvements, are enhancing accessibility and connectivity. These projects create both short-term construction demand and long-term value appreciation for properties near transit points and improved areas.

Population growth of 1.95% annually in Cancún, reaching over 1,065,400 residents in 2025, creates consistent housing demand that outpaces supply in many segments. This demographic pressure provides a solid foundation for sustained price growth independent of tourism fluctuations.

How are population growth and urban development expected to affect housing demand in Cancún?

Sustained high population growth of 1.95% annually is creating persistent housing demand pressure that significantly outpaces supply, ensuring continued upward pressure on prices.

Cancún's population exceeded 1,065,400 in 2025, representing one of Mexico's fastest-growing major cities. This growth stems from both natural increase and migration from other parts of Mexico seeking employment opportunities in the tourism and construction sectors.

Urban development plans focus on expanding new neighborhoods and luxury zones to accommodate this growth, though infrastructure development sometimes lags behind residential expansion. This creates both opportunities and challenges - new developments attract investment and job creation, but stretched infrastructure can temporarily impact some areas.

The housing demand from population growth provides a critical foundation for the market that operates independently from tourism cycles. Even if vacation rental or foreign buyer demand fluctuates, local population growth ensures consistent baseline demand for residential properties.

Urban planning initiatives are increasingly focusing on sustainable development and improved public transportation, which should support long-term property values while managing growth pressures more effectively.

What impact is tourism growth projected to have on the Cancún real estate market?

Tourism growth is projected to remain the primary driver of Cancún's real estate market, generating exceptional rental yields and sustaining international demand for investment properties.

The tourism sector generates high occupancy rates often exceeding 80% for vacation rentals, creating rental yields that frequently surpass 10% annually. This makes Cancún properties particularly attractive for income-focused investors compared to most global markets where yields typically range from 3-6%.

Hotels, airports, and related tourism services continue expanding to accommodate projected tourism growth, creating positive spillover effects that push prices higher in desirable areas. New luxury hotel developments and airport expansions signal continued industry confidence in long-term tourism prospects.

International tourism demand drives the vacation rental and second home markets, supporting premium pricing for properties with tourism appeal. This creates a dual market where properties serve both local residents and international visitors, providing multiple revenue streams for property owners.

Tourism infrastructure development, including the Maya Train and improved transportation links, is opening previously less accessible areas to tourism development, expanding the geographic scope of tourism-driven real estate appreciation throughout the region.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Mexico versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.

How might infrastructure projects and government policies influence future house prices in Cancún?

The Maya Train project and complementary infrastructure developments are creating significant positive impacts on property values, while pro-investment government policies provide institutional support for continued market growth.

The Maya Train, operational from late 2024, represents the most significant infrastructure development affecting Cancún real estate in decades. Properties near train stations and improved transit connections are experiencing accelerated appreciation, with some areas seeing 15-20% price increases directly attributable to improved accessibility.

New airport expansions and road improvement projects are enhancing Cancún's connectivity to both domestic and international markets. These infrastructure upgrades reduce travel times, improve accessibility, and support larger-scale tourism and residential development projects.

Government policies include public-private partnerships that facilitate large-scale development projects, streamlined permitting processes for qualified developments, and pro-investment frameworks that attract both domestic and foreign capital. These policies create institutional support for sustained development activity.

Environmental and zoning regulations are becoming more sophisticated, which may limit supply in some premium coastal areas while protecting long-term value. This regulatory evolution supports sustainable development while maintaining scarcity value for well-positioned properties.

It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.

What are the potential risks or factors that could cause long-term price declines in Cancún?

Overdevelopment risks, environmental concerns, economic shocks, and rising operating costs represent the primary factors that could potentially moderate or reverse Cancún's price appreciation trends.

1. Overdevelopment in luxury segments: Excessive supply of high-end properties, particularly in inland gated communities with limited tourism appeal, could reduce long-term price growth where vacation rental demand is weak or HOA fees become unsustainable.
2. Environmental and climate risks: Hurricane exposure, coastal erosion, and concerns about overbuilt coastlines could moderate future gains if environmental challenges are not adequately addressed through improved building standards and coastal management.
3. Economic shock scenarios: Sudden declines in international tourism due to global economic downturns, travel restrictions, or competing destinations could depress demand and prices in the short to medium term, particularly affecting tourism-dependent property segments.
4. Rising construction and operating costs: Increasing labor costs, material prices, and possible project delays may slow supply responses while raising maintenance costs for existing properties, potentially impacting overall market affordability.
5. Infrastructure strain: If population and development growth significantly outpaces infrastructure improvements, resulting congestion, utility limitations, or service degradation could impact desirability and pricing in affected areas.

How do rental yields and investment returns in Cancún compare to the predicted capital gains over the long term?

Cancún offers exceptional combined returns with vacation rental yields frequently exceeding 10% alongside capital gains averaging 10-14% annually, creating total returns that surpass most global real estate markets.

Vacation rental yields in Cancún consistently rank among Mexico's highest, often exceeding 10% annually due to strong tourism demand and high occupancy rates. This income component provides immediate returns that significantly enhance total investment performance compared to markets focused primarily on capital appreciation.

Recent capital gains have averaged 10-14% annually, and while future appreciation may moderate as the market matures, analysts expect continued above-average performance compared to most international markets. The combination of high current yields with continued appreciation creates compelling total returns.

Over a 10-20 year investment horizon, many analysts expect rental yields to remain strong due to sustained tourism growth, while capital appreciation may gradually moderate from current peak levels to more sustainable 5-8% annual rates. This evolution would still provide excellent total returns while reducing volatility.

The dual income streams from both rental yields and capital gains provide portfolio diversification benefits, as rental income can help offset any periods of slower price appreciation while maintaining positive cash flow for property owners.

For investors seeking both income and growth, Cancún's combination of high rental yields and continued appreciation potential positions it favorably compared to markets that offer either high yields or high appreciation, but rarely both at these levels.

It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. CEIC Data - House Price Index Quintana Roo
2. MyCasa - Mexico Real Estate Prices Quintana Roo Trends
3. HomeReady Global - Real Estate Boom Southeast Mexico
4. Properstar - Cancun House Prices
5. Benoit Properties - Property Price Growth Playa del Carmen
6. The Latin Investor - Cancun Price Forecasts
7. Zoom Playa - Riviera Maya Real Estate Trends
8. Riviera Maya News - Real Estate Outlook 2025
9. World Population Review - Cancun Population
10. Overseas Dream Home - Buying Real Estate Cancun