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SUMMARY
Yes. Buenos Aires property prices are more likely to rise than fall from here, but the most likely path is a slow, low-single-digit climb rather than another broad rally.
The citywide market has almost stalled without actually turning down. Zonaprop puts CABA apartment asking prices at US$2,471/m², up 1.3% over 12 months, only 0.1% in the latest month and 0.9% so far this year.
The slowdown is much bigger than the headline 1.3% suggests. Annual price growth was about 6.7% a year ago, so the market has lost roughly four-fifths of its previous appreciation rate without losing its underlying transaction activity.
That is the oddest part of the current market: sales remain close to multi-year highs while prices barely move. CABA recorded 35,528 deeds in the first seven months, only 1.8% fewer than a year earlier, which means buyers have not disappeared.
Mortgage demand, however, has weakened sharply. Mortgage-backed purchases are down roughly 36% across the first seven months, yet total sales are almost flat, implying that cash, savings and other non-mortgage buyers are doing much more of the work than they were a year ago.
Supply is the main reason healthy demand has not turned into faster price growth. More than 110,000 CABA properties are advertised for sale and the stock is still rising, so buyers usually have enough alternatives to avoid bidding aggressively.
Sellers are not under much pressure either. The latest average gap between the final advertised price and the closing price is about 4.8%, far tighter than the roughly 7% concessions seen in 2022, which looks more like a balanced market than a distressed one.
Investor economics are also better than they were a few years ago. Gross rental yield is around 5.76%, enough to support ownership even if capital appreciation stays modest, although rent growth has recently slipped behind inflation.
Valuation still leaves some room for recovery: the citywide asking-price index remains 11.7% below its historical dollar peak. But abundant resale supply, an active development pipeline and weak mortgage growth make a rapid return to that peak much harder to assume.
The most likely outcome is therefore uneven appreciation rather than a citywide boom. Better apartments and stronger neighborhoods can outperform, while ordinary or poorly positioned units may sit flat; a broader acceleration probably needs mortgages to recover, inventory to fall and household purchasing power to improve at the same time.
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Are Buenos Aires property prices still rising right now?
Yes. Buenos Aires property prices are still rising in dollars today, but barely: the latest Zonaprop CABA index puts the average apartment at US$2,471/m², up 1.3% over 12 months.
That is the freshest citywide reading available, and the slowdown is striking. The same index shows prices up only 0.1% in the latest month and 0.9% so far this year. More importantly, the 1.3% annual increase is the weakest year-over-year gain in 28 months.
Buenos Aires has moved well beyond the rebound phase that started after the 2023 low. Prices are still moving in the right direction for owners, but buyers are no longer chasing the market upward.
Zonaprop's current reference prices put a typical 40 m² studio around US$108,000, a 50 m² one-bedroom around US$131,000 and a 70 m² two-bedroom around US$179,000.
| CABA apartment market | Current level | Change | What we see |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average asking price | US$2,471/m² | +1.3% YoY | Prices still rising |
| Latest monthly move | — | +0.1% | Almost flat |
| Increase this year | — | +0.9% | Very modest growth |
| 40 m² studio | US$108,000 | — | Entry-level benchmark |
| 50 m² apartment | US$131,000 | — | Mainstream benchmark |
| 70 m² apartment | US$179,000 | — | Family-size benchmark |
Has the Buenos Aires property boom already run out of steam?
Mostly, yes. Buenos Aires property prices still have upward momentum, but the fast part of the recovery appears to be over.
A year ago, Zonaprop was showing annual price growth of about 6.7%. The latest figure is 1.3%. That means the annual rate of appreciation has fallen by roughly 80%.
The change is too large to dismiss as normal monthly noise. At the beginning of this year, Buenos Aires apartment prices were still up roughly 4.8% over 12 months. Now that figure has slipped close to 1%.
This looks more like normalization after a strong recovery than the start of an imminent crash. Homes had become extremely cheap in dollar terms during the previous downturn, so part of the earlier increase was simply a rebound from depressed levels. Once that gap narrowed, buyers became more price-sensitive.
The next leg higher will need something stronger than recovery psychology. Credit, income growth or a genuine shortage of desirable properties would have to do more of the work.
| Price momentum | Around a year ago | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual price growth | ~6.7% | 1.3% | -5.4 pp |
| Current-year growth at comparable stage | ~5.0% | 0.9% | Much slower |
| Market phase | Strong rebound | Slow growth | Clear deceleration |
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Are enough Buenos Aires properties still selling to keep prices up?
Yes. Buenos Aires property sales remain unusually healthy even though they have stopped growing.
The latest Colegio de Escribanos figures show 6,051 CABA property sales in the most recent reported month. That was 9% below the exceptional 6,651 transactions recorded one year earlier, but it was also the strongest month of this year.
The longer comparison is more useful. Buenos Aires recorded 35,528 sales during the first seven months of the year, just 1.8% fewer than during the same period last year. One month earlier, the first-half total was effectively tied with 2025.
So buyers have not disappeared. In fact, the Colegio says the last two comparable July readings were the strongest in many years; apart from last year, we have to go back to 2008 to find a higher July figure.
That is why a bearish call still feels premature. Property prices are barely rising, yet transaction volumes are sitting around the high end of their modern range. Sellers are finding buyers.
| CABA sales activity | Latest reading | Year-on-year | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest monthly deeds | 6,051 | -9.0% | Below exceptional 2025 |
| Previous month | 5,990 | +4.0% | Still growing then |
| First 7 months | 35,528 | -1.8% | Essentially flat |
| Historical context | Very high | — | Activity remains strong |
Why are Buenos Aires property prices barely moving if sales are so strong?
Because Buenos Aires currently has plenty of buyers but also plenty of sellers. That balance explains the strange combination of strong sales and almost flat prices.
There are now more than 110,000 properties advertised for sale across CABA, according to Zonaprop data reported by La Nación. Around 75,000 are apartments.
The stock has also been heading upward rather than disappearing. Comparing June with the same month one year earlier, the number of properties for sale increased 3.4%. An earlier Radar Inmobiliario reading showed more than 113,000 listings and 12 consecutive months of year-over-year inventory growth.
That supply gives buyers options. A household interested in Palermo, Belgrano or Caballito can usually compare dozens of similar apartments rather than bidding aggressively for the only suitable home.
At the same time, 6,000 monthly sales are enough to stop that stock from turning into obvious distress.
This is the simplest explanation for today's 1.3% price increase: demand is healthy enough to prevent broad cuts, while supply is too abundant to let owners raise prices quickly.
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Has mortgage credit stopped helping the Buenos Aires property market?
For now, yes. Mortgage lending is the weakest part of the Buenos Aires property market and the clearest reason we are cautious about forecasting faster price growth.
Only 959 of the latest 6,051 CABA sales involved a mortgage. That was 31.2% fewer mortgage-backed purchases than one year earlier.
Across the first seven months, 5,111 sales were financed with mortgages. The Colegio de Escribanos says that figure is down roughly 36% from the same period last year.
The decline started earlier than that. In May, only 587 sales involved a mortgage, down 54.8% year over year. The first five months were already running more than 37% behind last year.
We can see the effect on the composition of demand. Mortgage-backed deals currently account for around 14% of transactions across the first seven months. Working backwards from last year's volumes, the equivalent share was roughly 22% a year ago.
Buenos Aires has therefore managed to keep total sales almost unchanged while losing thousands of financed buyers. Cash and savings-backed demand have been much stronger than the headline mortgage slowdown might suggest.
But this also tells us what is missing from the next rally. If mortgage lending rebounds while existing cash demand stays intact, the market suddenly gains another layer of buyers.
| Mortgage activity | Current evidence | Comparison | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest mortgage deeds | 959 | -31.2% YoY | Still weak |
| First 7 months | 5,111 | ~-36% YoY | Major contraction |
| Current mortgage share | ~14% | ~22% previously | Financing matters less |
| May mortgage deals | 587 | -54.8% YoY | Weakness was even worse earlier |
Are Buenos Aires sellers actually getting close to their asking prices?
Yes. Buenos Aires sellers still give up only around 5% from the final advertised price, which is far tighter than during the weak market a few years ago.
The RE/MAX-UCEMA series tracked by Brecha puts the latest average gap between the final listing price and the closing price at 4.81% for used one- to three-room apartments in CABA.
Back in 2022, the annual average was 7.04%. It fell to 6.59% in 2023, 4.79% in 2024 and 4.49% last year.
That is a meaningful shift in bargaining power. Someone listing an apartment during the weak period often had to concede roughly seven cents for every dollar of advertised value. Today, the average concession is closer to five.
There has been a small reversal lately. The average gap for the first seven observations this year is 4.88%, slightly wider than last year's 4.49%. Sellers have lost a little leverage, which fits with growing inventory and slower price appreciation.
Still, this does not look like a market where owners are desperate to exit.
| Year | Average closing discount |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.04% |
| 2023 | 6.59% |
| 2024 | 4.79% |
| 2025 | 4.49% |
| Current year to date | 4.88% |
| Latest month | 4.81% |
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Are Buenos Aires apartments still cheap compared with the old peak?
Yes. Buenos Aires apartment prices remain 11.7% below Zonaprop's historical dollar peak, leaving room for further recovery without setting a new record.
At today's US$2,471/m² average, that gap implies a previous high around US$2,800/m².
A useful detail often gets missed here: being 11.7% below the peak means prices would need to rise roughly 13% from today's level to regain it.
That gives Buenos Aires some headroom. A few years of 2%-4% annual appreciation would still leave the city around, or only modestly above, its old nominal dollar high.
The old high is not a target prices are destined to reach. Affordability, mortgage availability and Argentina's exchange-rate regime are different today. Still, buyers are not entering after a decade-long property boom at record valuations.
So another major collapse is hard to argue from valuation alone.
Could all those properties for sale keep Buenos Aires prices flat for years?
Yes. The unusually large stock of Buenos Aires properties for sale could keep citywide appreciation weak even while good apartments continue to sell.
More than 110,000 listings is a large pool relative to roughly 6,000 transactions in a strong month. A simple division would be misleading because listings and completed deeds cover different universes and properties remain on portals for different lengths of time, but the order of magnitude still tells us something: buyers have choice.
The inventory also keeps renewing itself. Stock was 3.4% higher year over year in the latest comparison, and earlier data showed a full year of consecutive annual increases.
This is especially relevant in the largest apartment markets. Palermo alone has thousands of apartments competing for attention, as do Belgrano, Caballito and Recoleta.
So a broad shortage story does not work today. Scarcity exists property by property: a renovated apartment with light, a good floor plan and the right block can be difficult to replace. Across CABA as a whole, scarcity is much harder to find.
That difference will probably make neighborhood and property selection more important over the next few years. The city average can move 1% while genuinely desirable units move considerably faster.
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Will new construction stop Buenos Aires property prices from rising?
New construction should keep some pressure on Buenos Aires prices, although there is no obvious wave of supply large enough to push the whole market down.
One analysis of official city permit data by Tejido Urbano counted 4,697 multi-family residential permits between 2021 and 2025, representing around 10.5 million square meters. New multi-family projects accounted for 3,703 of those permits and roughly 8.6 million square meters.
Using project-size assumptions, the study estimated a development capacity equivalent to roughly 18,000 to 30,000 apartments per year.
Those units do not all hit the market immediately. A permit may precede completion by years, and some projects can be delayed or changed. But the figures still show that Buenos Aires continues building at meaningful scale.
The city has two supply cushions today: a very large resale market and an active development pipeline.
For existing owners, that rules out the easiest bullish story, where construction disappears and buyers are forced to bid up a fixed stock of apartments.
Are construction costs helping existing Buenos Aires property prices?
Yes. High construction costs now give existing Buenos Aires apartments a useful floor because developers cannot easily create cheap competing homes.
INDEC's latest construction-cost index for Greater Buenos Aires rose another 2.1% in one month. Materials increased 1.6%, while labor and general expenses each rose 2.5%.
That came after monthly increases of 2.6% and 2.7% in the preceding two readings.
For developers, repeated cost increases eventually have to show up somewhere. They can charge more for new apartments, accept lower margins or postpone projects.
Existing homes benefit from all three outcomes. Higher new-build prices make used apartments look cheaper; delayed projects restrict future supply; thinner development margins reduce the incentive to add apartments aggressively.
This support should not be exaggerated because construction costs are reported in pesos while Buenos Aires property values are commonly judged in dollars. Exchange-rate movements can change the relationship quickly.
Still, replacement is much harder today at the extremely low dollar economics seen near the property-market bottom.
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Are Buenos Aires rental yields good enough to support higher property prices?
Yes. Buenos Aires rental yields are currently high enough to give investors a credible reason to own property even without assuming rapid capital appreciation.
Zonaprop's latest CABA calculation puts the gross rental yield at 5.76% a year. At that rate, gross rent would equal the purchase price after roughly 17.3 years.
The improvement over last year is meaningful. The required payback period has fallen 6.5%, which implies a yield closer to 5.4% a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the average monthly asking rent for a two-room apartment has reached ARS873,668. Rents are up 30.7% over 12 months.
Recent rent growth has cooled in real terms, though. Rents increased 17.5% so far this year while consumer prices rose 19.2%, leaving them down about 1.7% after inflation.
Investors therefore have a better yield today without needing another explosive rent increase. A gross return near 5.8% will shrink after expenses, maintenance, vacancies and taxes, but it is much easier to defend than the low-yield environment Buenos Aires experienced before.
| Rental indicator | Current reading | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| Gross rental yield | 5.76% | Higher than a year ago |
| Gross payback period | 17.3 years | 6.5% shorter YoY |
| Typical two-room rent | ARS873,668/month | High nominal level |
| Annual rent growth | +30.7% | Still strong |
| Rent growth this year | +17.5% | Slightly below inflation |
Can local buyers afford much higher Buenos Aires property prices?
Not comfortably. Weak local affordability is one of the main reasons we do not expect Buenos Aires property prices to race higher without much more mortgage credit.
A typical 50 m² apartment now costs around US$131,000 on Zonaprop's citywide benchmark. In Palermo, Núñez and other expensive neighborhoods, the same size can cost far more.
Most Argentine households do not hold that amount of cash, and the domestic mortgage market remains small. That creates a basic ceiling: prices can rise only so far before the pool of local cash buyers becomes thinner.
Buenos Aires is unusual because this affordability gap is intensified by currency. Homes are commonly quoted and negotiated in US dollars while household income is mostly earned in pesos.
When the peso is stable and real salaries rise, buying power can improve quickly. A sharp exchange-rate adjustment can undo part of that improvement just as quickly.
That is why the mortgage slowdown deserves more attention than another 0.1% monthly move in apartment prices. Long-term financing turns household income into purchasing power. Without enough of it, the market remains disproportionately dependent on existing savings and accumulated wealth.
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Is Argentina's economy helping Buenos Aires property prices right now?
Yes. Argentina's economy currently gives Buenos Aires property a much healthier backdrop than it had during the long market decline, although the improvement is still fragile.
The IMF's latest outlook expects Argentina's real economy to grow 3.5% this year after 4.4% growth last year. Private investment and exports are among the main drivers.
Inflation has also fallen dramatically from the triple-digit rates recorded earlier in the decade. The IMF currently expects year-end inflation around 25%, down from 31.5% last year.
A growing economy with falling inflation usually helps property because people can plan further ahead, businesses invest and households become more willing to make large purchases.
Buenos Aires benefits more than many property markets from predictability because transactions are dollar-linked while everyday incomes and costs remain heavily peso-based. Fewer violent price and currency distortions make it easier for buyers and sellers to agree on a value.
Argentina is still far from macroeconomically boring. The IMF itself expects inflation to remain high by global standards, and the exchange rate remains central to affordability. But the backdrop today is clearly more supportive of housing than during the market's weakest years.
| Argentina macro indicator | Latest outlook |
|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 3.5% |
| Previous-year GDP growth | 4.4% |
| Expected year-end inflation | ~25% |
| Previous year-end inflation | 31.5% |
| Real private-sector credit growth | 16.8% projected |
Does Buenos Aires population growth justify a big property-price boom?
No. Buenos Aires has enough underlying housing demand to support the market, but population growth is too modest to justify a major price boom by itself.
The latest census counted roughly 3.12 million people in the City of Buenos Aires, up from around 2.89 million in 2010.
That is about 8% growth across 12 years, or well below 1% a year on an annualized basis.
Housing demand can still grow faster than population. Smaller households, more people living alone, internal migration, investment purchases and neighborhood changes all affect the number of units people want.
But Buenos Aires does not have the demographic pressure of a city adding several percentage points of population every year while barely building.
So when we look for the next major price driver, demographics sit well below mortgage lending, real incomes, investor demand and macro stability.
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Are some Buenos Aires neighborhoods already rising much faster than the city?
Yes. Buenos Aires neighborhood prices are increasingly moving at very different speeds, which makes the citywide 1.3% increase less useful for individual buyers.
Saavedra is a good example. Recent used-apartment data showed prices there up about 9.4% in dollars over 12 months, reaching roughly US$2,881/m² at the time of the measurement.
That is several times faster than the CABA average.
At the other end of the market, premium neighborhoods already carry much higher absolute valuations. Recent benchmarks put Palermo above US$3,400/m² and Núñez around a similar level, while Puerto Madero remains in an entirely different category at more than US$6,000/m².
Price level and price momentum are two separate questions. A neighborhood that is already expensive does not automatically rise faster. Areas one tier below the traditional prime locations can sometimes capture more upside as buyers search for better value nearby.
For someone buying today, this dispersion matters much more than whether the overall CABA index finishes the year up 1%, 2% or 3%.
| Area | Approximate recent US$/m² | Recent positioning |
|---|---|---|
| Puerto Madero | >US$6,000 | Ultra-premium |
| Palermo | ~US$3,400 | Prime, highly liquid |
| Núñez | ~US$3,400 | Prime residential |
| Saavedra | ~US$2,880 used | Strong recent growth |
| CABA average | US$2,471 | Citywide benchmark |
What would actually make Buenos Aires property prices accelerate again?
A real mortgage recovery would be the fastest way to push Buenos Aires property prices into another stronger growth phase.
Today, only about one in seven transactions across the first seven months has involved mortgage financing. Last year's equivalent share was closer to one in five.
If that difference disappeared while the underlying 35,000-plus transactions remained intact, several thousand additional financed purchases could enter the market over a full year.
The effect would become much stronger if sale inventory started falling at the same time. Right now, the city has more than 110,000 listings and the stock is still growing. If sales stayed near 6,000 per month while listings began declining, we would have much clearer evidence that demand was starting to outrun supply.
Real wage growth is the third ingredient. Better incomes would enlarge the pool of households capable of qualifying for a mortgage and covering the initial deposit.
Those three developments together—more mortgages, falling inventory and stronger purchasing power—would give us a genuine bullish setup. We do not see that combination yet.
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What could send Buenos Aires property prices down again?
A serious Argentine macro shock could still push Buenos Aires property prices lower in dollars, especially if it damaged local purchasing power and mortgage lending at the same time.
The most obvious route would be a sharp currency adjustment that leaves peso incomes behind. Homes would suddenly become more expensive relative to local salaries even if sellers did not change their dollar asking prices.
A weaker economy could add another problem by reducing job security and willingness to commit capital. Mortgage lending, already down roughly 36% in the first seven months, could retreat further.
There is also a quieter downside scenario. Inventory could continue expanding while mortgage credit stays weak, leaving sellers competing harder for roughly the same number of buyers. In that case, negotiation discounts would probably widen first, followed later by softer asking prices.
There is no evidence of broad distress today. Sales volumes remain high and the average closing discount is still only around 5%. But Argentina's property market has enough macro sensitivity that another deep downturn cannot be treated as impossible.
Are Buenos Aires property prices likely to rise from here?
Yes. Buenos Aires property prices are more likely to rise than fall from here, but we expect a slow climb rather than another strong citywide rally.
The latest numbers fit that conclusion unusually well. Dollar asking prices are up 1.3% over 12 months, sales volumes remain near multi-year highs and sellers are still closing within roughly 5% of their final asking prices. Rental yields are also around 5.76%, while current apartment values remain 11.7% below the old dollar peak.
At the same time, the market has clearly cooled. Annual price growth has fallen from roughly 6.7% to 1.3%, mortgage-backed purchases are down about 36% across the first seven months, and the number of properties for sale has risen 3.4% year over year.
As seen above, those opposing forces are already visible in the outcome: plenty of transactions, almost no price acceleration.
Our base case is low-single-digit annual appreciation in US dollars for the broader CABA market. Some neighborhoods and particularly good apartments can do much better, while weaker properties can remain flat.
We would become considerably more bullish if mortgage volumes turn decisively upward and sale inventory starts falling. Without those two changes, expecting another 6%-10% citywide annual rise looks too aggressive.
| Scenario | What we would expect to see | Likely price outcome | Current fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong bull case | Mortgages rebound, inventory falls, incomes improve | Faster appreciation | Not visible yet |
| Base case | Strong sales, stable economy, weak credit | Low-single-digit gains | Best fit today |
| Flat case | Inventory keeps rising, mortgages stay weak | Roughly flat prices | Quite plausible |
| Bear case | Macro shock, weaker demand, wider discounts | Dollar-price decline | Possible, but not current trend |
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Buenos Aires property prices are likely to keep rising by looking beyond the headline asking-price index. We compare current price momentum with transaction volumes, mortgage activity, available supply, closing-price discounts, rents and yields, construction, affordability, macro conditions and demographics before reaching the final judgment.
We prioritize the freshest usable data and favor the institution measuring the underlying activity directly. Asking prices and rents come from property-market indexes; completed sales come from notarized deeds; closing-price studies are used to measure negotiation; financing conditions come from the central bank; and inflation, construction and population data come from official statistical agencies.
We do not treat every indicator as equally strong. Monthly price changes are useful for spotting the latest direction, but year-on-year, year-to-date and longer historical comparisons carry more weight when deciding whether the market is genuinely accelerating, cooling or simply moving sideways for a few months.
We also keep different data universes separate. Listings measure seller expectations and the amount of choice available to buyers; deeds measure transactions that actually closed; closing-price studies show where buyers and sellers ultimately agreed. Those series are used to cross-check one another rather than being treated as interchangeable.
Because Buenos Aires residential property is commonly valued in US dollars while local incomes, rents and many costs remain peso-based, the analysis separates asset-price momentum from local purchasing power. That distinction is especially important when assessing affordability, mortgage demand and the effect of exchange-rate changes.
The final view is based on the balance of evidence rather than on a single unusually strong or weak statistic. We look for places where independent indicators confirm one another, where they conflict, and what would have to change for the market to move from slow appreciation into either a stronger rally or a renewed decline.
Key sources include Zonaprop's CABA Sale Index for asking prices and historical price momentum, Zonaprop's CABA Rental Index and CABA Rental Yield Index for rents and gross yields, and the Colegio de Escribanos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires for completed deeds and mortgage-backed transactions.
For actual closing values and negotiation, we use the UCEMA / RE/MAX Índice Real m² and Reporte Inmobiliario's latest closing-price publication. Construction and inflation checks rely on INDEC's construction-cost data and consumer-price index, while development and demographic context comes from the Buenos Aires City Statistics Institute and INDEC's 2022 Census.
For financing and the wider economic backdrop, we use the BCRA Credit Conditions Survey, the BCRA July 2026 Statistical Bulletin, the BCRA interest-rate database, and the IMF's 2026 Argentina Article IV and EFF review.
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