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Yes, the analysis of Tulum's property market is included in our pack
Tulum's house prices have experienced notable fluctuations in 2025, with current data showing a 12.06% increase year-over-year despite earlier declines from 2024 peaks. The Riviera Maya destination continues to attract international buyers and investors, though market dynamics are shifting as new supply enters the market and regulatory changes take effect.
Understanding whether house prices will decline in Tulum requires examining multiple market factors including current pricing trends, construction activity, tourism patterns, and regulatory changes. As of September 2025, the market shows mixed signals with luxury segments maintaining resilience while some property types face oversupply challenges.
If you want to go deeper, you can check our pack of documents related to the real estate market in Mexico, based on reliable facts and data, not opinions or rumors.
Tulum house prices have shown a 12.06% year-over-year increase as of 2025, despite earlier declines from 2024 peaks of 10-15% in some segments.
The market faces mixed pressures from strong tourism growth, new construction supply, regulatory changes, and continued foreign buyer interest primarily from US investors.
| Market Factor | Current Status (Sep 2025) | Impact on Prices |
|---|---|---|
| Average House Prices | $446,824 USD median (3-bedroom) | +12.06% YoY increase |
| New Construction | Several hundred units in pipeline | Potential downward pressure |
| Tourism Growth | 10% increase projected for 2025 | Upward pressure on rental demand |
| Foreign Buyers | Majority of purchases (88% international) | Stable demand support |
| Mortgage Rates | 9-12% (down from 11.5% in 2024) | Slight positive for financed buyers |
| Peso Strength | +11% vs USD in 2025 | Mixed impact for foreign buyers |
| Inventory Levels | 67% of listings 271+ days on market | Downward pressure potential |
What are the current average house prices in Tulum compared to last year?
As of September 2025, house prices in Tulum show a 12.06% year-over-year increase, with the median price for 3-bedroom houses reaching $446,824 USD.
Current median house prices are approximately MXN 3,967 per square foot, while apartments average MXN 5,586 per square foot. New house prices vary significantly by size and location: 2-bedroom houses range from $230,000 to $635,000 USD, 3-bedroom houses from $514,000 to $1,195,000 USD, and 4-bedroom houses from $469,000 to $8,000,000 USD.
The market experienced a complex pricing pattern in 2024-2025. Prime Tulum properties declined by 10-15% from their 2024 peaks, particularly affecting luxury segments that had seen rapid appreciation. However, the overall market has since rebounded, with the current 12.06% year-over-year increase indicating strong underlying demand despite temporary corrections.
Luxury properties have shown particular resilience throughout these fluctuations, maintaining value better than mid-range segments. The price variations reflect different market dynamics across property types, with beachfront and cenote-adjacent properties commanding premium prices regardless of broader market trends.
How many new housing units are being built in Tulum right now?
Tulum currently has several hundred new housing units under construction across multiple large-scale developments scheduled for completion in 2025.
Major projects contributing to this construction pipeline include Azulik Residences, Faena District with 147 units, Saumeria Tulum, and Selva Maya at Harmony. These developments represent a mix of gated communities and premium condominium projects targeting both international buyers and luxury vacation rental investors.
New phases of existing projects like Aldea Savia continue to add inventory, indicating robust ongoing construction activity despite market uncertainties. The construction boom reflects developer confidence in long-term demand, particularly from foreign buyers seeking vacation homes and rental investment properties.
This significant construction activity creates potential oversupply concerns, especially in the condominium market where inventory levels have already shown signs of extended listing periods. The timing of these new unit deliveries will be crucial in determining whether they can be absorbed by current demand levels.
What is the current occupancy rate for short-term rentals and hotels in Tulum?
Short-term rental occupancy in Tulum averaged 49% from June 2024 to May 2025, while hotel occupancy reached 62.6% in summer 2025.
Airbnb occupancy shows strong seasonal variation, dropping to 30-35% during September low season and peaking at 57-66% in January high season depending on property type. This seasonality pattern reflects Tulum's tourism cycles, with winter months attracting the highest visitor numbers from North American markets.
Hotel occupancy at 62.6% trails behind Cancun's performance, indicating room for growth in the accommodation sector. The difference suggests that while Tulum attracts significant tourism, it hasn't reached the saturation levels of more established Riviera Maya destinations.
International guests dominate the short-term rental market, comprising 88% of visitors with the majority coming from the United States. This heavy reliance on US tourism makes the market vulnerable to changes in US economic conditions and travel patterns.
How many foreign buyers are entering or leaving the Tulum real estate market this year?
Foreign buyers continue to dominate Tulum's real estate market, comprising the majority of purchases, with 88% of short-term rental guests being international visitors, mostly from the United States.
While specific entry and exit numbers for foreign buyers in 2025 are not directly tracked, market indicators suggest stable foreign buyer activity rather than significant increases or decreases. Most foreign purchases are structured through fideicomiso trusts, which remains the standard legal framework for international property ownership in Mexico's restricted zones.
The foreign buyer market has stabilized after years of rapid growth during the pandemic period. US buyers remain the dominant group, attracted by Tulum's proximity, cultural appeal, and investment potential in the vacation rental market.
Market experts indicate that foreign buyer demand has plateaued rather than declined, with buyers becoming more selective about locations and property types. The strengthened peso has created some headwinds for US dollar-based buyers, though this hasn't significantly reduced overall interest levels.
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What is the trend in mortgage interest rates in Mexico over the past 12 months?
Mexican mortgage interest rates have decreased from 11.43-11.52% in 2024 to a current range of 9-12% for new borrowers as of July 2025.
This downward trend represents a significant improvement for financed buyers, with minimum rates falling from around 9.36% in 2024 to more competitive levels in 2025. The rate decline reflects broader monetary policy adjustments and improved economic conditions in Mexico.
Rates are expected to continue their gradual downward trajectory, with projections suggesting movement toward 6% base rates by 2026. This trend could make financed purchases more attractive to both domestic and international buyers, potentially increasing market activity.
Despite the rate improvements, most Tulum real estate transactions remain cash-based due to the complexity of obtaining Mexican mortgages as a foreigner and the preference for quick transactions in the luxury market. Developers increasingly offer installment payment plans as an alternative to traditional financing.
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How much has tourism grown or declined in Tulum over the past two years?
Tulum is experiencing record-breaking tourism growth in 2025, with projections showing a 10% increase in arrivals compared to 2024.
The tourism surge is supported by major infrastructure improvements including airport expansions and the Maya Train project, which have significantly improved accessibility to the destination. These developments have positioned Tulum as a more accessible alternative to other Riviera Maya destinations.
However, the tourism picture shows some complexity, with signs of capacity adjustments in low season air travel. Some routes are expected to see up to 23% capacity reductions by late 2025, reflecting airline optimization after recent surge periods rather than declining demand.
The two-year tourism trend from 2023-2025 shows consistent growth, though the pace has moderated from pandemic-era spikes. This sustained tourism growth supports the short-term rental market and provides fundamental demand for vacation properties.
What percentage of homes in Tulum are sold to cash buyers versus financed buyers?
The vast majority of Tulum real estate transactions are cash-based, with financing through Mexican banks rarely used by foreign buyers.
High mortgage interest rates and complex lending requirements for foreigners make traditional financing uncommon in Tulum's real estate market. Mexican banks typically require extensive documentation and proof of income that many international buyers find challenging to provide.
Developers have adapted to this cash-dominant market by offering alternative financing structures, particularly installment plans using the 30/70 model where buyers pay 30% during construction and 70% upon completion. These developer-financed options are becoming more common in 2025.
While financing options are gradually expanding in 2025, cash transactions remain the dominant method for real estate purchases. This cash preference also contributes to faster transaction times, with many deals closing within 14-23 days in competitive market segments.
How has the Mexican peso performed against the US dollar in the past year?
The Mexican peso strengthened significantly in 2025, gaining approximately 11% against the US dollar compared to 2024 levels.
As of August 2025, the exchange rate stands around 18.8 MXN per USD, representing a substantial improvement from 2024 levels. This peso strength reflects positive Mexican economic fundamentals and favorable interest rate differentials.
The stronger peso creates mixed implications for Tulum's real estate market. US dollar-based buyers face higher effective prices when purchasing in peso-denominated markets, potentially reducing their purchasing power for similar properties.
However, the currency has experienced some recent volatility, and exchange rate movements remain a key factor for international investors to monitor. The peso's performance affects both purchase prices for foreign buyers and rental yields for investors earning in dollars while holding peso-denominated assets.
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What are the government's current or planned regulations on development and zoning in Tulum?
As of 2025, Tulum has implemented new zoning codes that increase land use allowances for urban growth while simultaneously intensifying enforcement of existing regulations.
Environmental reviews and building permit scrutiny have increased significantly following past development abuses. Projects lacking proper authorizations are being shut down more frequently, creating uncertainty for some developments while ensuring compliance for properly permitted projects.
Stricter sustainability requirements are now enforced for new developments, including enhanced environmental impact assessments and compliance monitoring. Legal and tax compliance requirements for rental units have also been strengthened, affecting short-term rental operators.
These regulatory changes create both opportunities and challenges for real estate investors. While properly permitted projects benefit from increased legitimacy and reduced competition from unpermitted developments, the enhanced scrutiny can extend development timelines and increase costs.
It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.
What is the average time it takes to sell a property in Tulum right now compared to a year ago?
Properties in Tulum's competitive segments currently sell within 14-23 days on average, while luxury segment properties take 45-60 days to complete transactions.
These timeframes have remained relatively stable year-over-year, indicating consistent market velocity despite broader economic uncertainties. The quick transaction times reflect strong buyer interest and the cash-dominant nature of the market.
However, the oversupply of condominiums has extended sales times for some property types, particularly in developments with multiple similar units competing for the same buyer pool. Properties with unique features or prime locations continue to sell quickly.
The stability in sales timeframes suggests that while prices have fluctuated, underlying demand remains solid enough to maintain transaction velocity. Well-priced properties in desirable locations continue to attract multiple offers and quick closings.
How many unsold listings are currently on the market in Tulum?
Approximately 67% of current listings show extended availability with 271+ days on the market, indicating substantial unsold inventory in Tulum's real estate market.
This high percentage of long-term listings reflects the inventory overhang created by recent construction booms and the specific nature of Tulum's vacation property market. Many properties remain available as short-term rentals while technically being for sale, creating complex inventory dynamics.
Local real estate agents confirm a persistent inventory surplus, particularly in the condominium sector where numerous developments have delivered units simultaneously. This oversupply situation creates downward pressure on prices and extends marketing periods for sellers.
The unsold inventory situation varies significantly by property type and location, with beachfront and cenote-adjacent properties maintaining stronger demand while inland condominiums face the greatest inventory challenges.
What have been the year-over-year price changes for similar coastal markets in Mexico?
| Coastal Market | YoY Price Change (2024-2025) | USD/sq m (mid-2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Tulum | +12.06% | 2,000-5,500 |
| Playa del Carmen | +7-10% | 2,000-3,500 |
| Cancun | ~8.8% (national average) | 2,000+ |
| Puerto Vallarta | Below national average | Varies by zone |
| Mexican Coast Average | +8.8% | Market dependent |
Tulum has significantly outperformed other popular Mexican coastal markets in 2025, with its 12.06% year-over-year increase exceeding both the national average of 8.8% and neighboring destinations like Playa del Carmen at 7-10%.
This outperformance reflects Tulum's unique position as a luxury eco-tourism destination with limited developable land due to environmental restrictions. The scarcity factor has helped maintain price premiums compared to more developed coastal areas.
However, 2025 has brought signs of market plateauing as oversupply concerns begin to affect pricing dynamics. While Tulum continues to outperform regional markets, the growth rate may moderate as new inventory enters the market and regulatory changes affect development patterns.
It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.
Conclusion
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.
Based on current market analysis, Tulum house prices are unlikely to experience significant declines in the near term, despite temporary corrections from 2024 peaks.
The combination of strong tourism growth, continued foreign buyer interest, limited developable land, and improving infrastructure supports price stability, though oversupply in certain segments may moderate growth rates.
Sources
- Properstar - Tulum House Prices
- Caribe Luxury Homes - Average Prices Tulum
- Tulum Investor - Buy House Guide
- The LatinVestor - Tulum Price Forecasts
- Riviera Maya Blue - Market Report
- Plalla - New Developments Tulum
- 7th Heaven Properties - Invest in Tulum
- Airbtics - Airbnb Revenue Tulum
- Riviera Maya Cozy - Rental Revenue
- Global Property Guide - Mexico Mortgage Rates