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What is happening in Toluca’s real estate market? Are prices on the rise or decline? Is Toluca becoming a new hotspot for investors? How are local government policies shaping real estate dynamics in 2025?
These are the questions we hear every day from professionals, buyers, and sellers alike, from the heart of Toluca to its surrounding areas. Perhaps you’re curious about these trends too.
We know this because we stay closely connected with local experts and individuals like you, exploring the Toluca real estate market daily. That’s why we crafted this article: to deliver clear answers, insightful analysis, and a comprehensive view of market trends and dynamics.
Our aim is straightforward: to make sure you feel informed and confident about the market without needing to search elsewhere. If you think we missed something or could improve, we’d love to hear your feedback. Feel free to message us with your thoughts, and we’ll strive to enhance this content for you.
1) Toluca will see a gradual rise in property prices as demand exceeds supply
Property prices in Toluca are climbing steadily.
In the first quarter of 2024, house prices in Toluca jumped by 7.98% compared to the previous year. This isn't just a local phenomenon; it's part of a larger trend across Mexico. Over the past decade, house prices in the country have surged by 87.9%, reflecting a strong demand for real estate.
One of the main reasons for this rise is the population boom in urban areas like Toluca. As more people flock to the city, the demand for housing naturally increases. This urban shift has seen many moving from rural areas to Toluca's suburbs, further fueling the need for homes and essential services.
Adding to the pressure is the limited availability of land for new developments in Toluca. With scarce land, developers and investors are in fierce competition for plots, pushing property prices higher. Government reports also point to a shortage of housing stock, highlighting the urgent need for solutions.
For potential buyers, this means that the general trend in Toluca will likely be a gradual increase in property prices as demand continues to outpace supply. The city's growth and limited land availability make it a competitive market for real estate.
Sources: Real Estate MX, Global Property Guide
2) Toluca neighborhoods may face temporary price drops as new developments flood the market initially
In 2023 and 2024, Toluca saw a boom in new housing developments.
This surge led to an 8.1% increase in homes for sale from August to September 2024, creating a temporary oversupply. When too many homes hit the market at once, prices can dip, making it a buyer's market for a while.
Historically, Toluca Lake has experienced price fluctuations with new developments. In September 2024, the median home price dropped by 6.7% compared to the previous year. This shows how an influx of new homes can initially push prices down.
Real estate experts often note that new developments can lead to an initial oversupply, causing prices to temporarily decline. This trend is evident in Toluca Lake, where inventory levels and market conditions are closely watched.
For potential buyers, this means there might be a window of opportunity to snag a deal before prices stabilize. It's a classic case of supply and demand, where more homes mean more choices and potentially better prices.
Keep an eye on these trends if you're considering buying in Toluca. The market might be in your favor, at least for now, as new developments continue to shape the landscape.
Sources: Rocket Homes, LaGuardia Low
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Mexico. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
3) Toluca will see rising demand for smaller, accessible housing due to an aging population
In Toluca, nearly 22% of adults are seniors, and this trend is expected to grow.
As people get older, they often look for smaller, more accessible homes that are easier to manage. These homes usually have features like ramps and wider doorways to accommodate changing physical needs. Many seniors prefer to stay in their own homes as they age, which means there's a rising demand for these types of properties.
Recently, the senior housing market has seen a 40% increase in demand for smaller, easy-to-navigate homes. This surge happened in the first quarter of 2024, showing that more people are interested in these living spaces. The growth of the 80+ age group is starting to outpace the availability of such homes, creating a gap in the market.
In Toluca, the population is shrinking slightly each year, but the number of older adults is growing. This means that the demand for senior-friendly housing is likely to increase. As the community ages, more people will be looking for homes that suit their needs.
For those considering buying property in Toluca, it's worth noting that the market for smaller, accessible homes is expanding. This could be a good opportunity for investment, as the demand is expected to continue rising.
With the aging population, the need for senior housing options is becoming more urgent. This trend is not just a local phenomenon but is being observed in many places, making it a significant factor for potential buyers to consider.
Sources: World Population Review, BDC Network, NIC MAP Vision
4) Property prices in northern Toluca will rise with new infrastructure projects enhancing connectivity
Properties in northern Toluca are set to rise in value thanks to new infrastructure projects improving connectivity.
The big game-changer here is the Toluca Interurban Train, which kicked off in September 2023. This train links Toluca to Mexico City, slashing travel time and making the area much more accessible. By June 2024, the entire project should be up and running, boosting connectivity even more and drawing attention to the region.
We've seen this before: when new transport links pop up, property prices tend to climb. Take Mexico City, for instance, where new transit options have pushed up property values in connected areas. Expect the same in Toluca, as the Interurban Train makes the northern part of the city more appealing.
With better connectivity, new businesses and commercial developments are likely to follow, giving property values another nudge upwards. The local government is also on board, planning further urban development and expanding train services to Mexico City, showing they're in it for the long haul to boost northern Toluca.
For those eyeing property in the area, this is a golden opportunity. The combination of improved transport and urban development is a recipe for rising property values. Investing now could mean reaping the benefits as the area grows and attracts more interest.
So, if you're considering buying property in northern Toluca, keep an eye on these developments. The infrastructure projects are not just about better travel; they're about transforming the area into a thriving hub. Get in early, and you might just find yourself in a prime spot as the region flourishes.
Sources: Proyectos Mexico, Mexico Business News
5) Toluca's rental yields will increase in areas with better public transportation links
Improved public transportation can significantly boost property values in cities.
Take Mexico City, for example, where neighborhoods connected to the new Metrobús system have seen property values soar. This trend suggests that similar developments in Toluca could enhance rental yields. In places like Santiago, Chile, and Bogotá, Colombia, upgraded transit systems have historically led to higher rental returns, reinforcing this idea.
People's preferences matter too. In Mexico City, a survey found that 70% of tenants prefer areas with good public transport. This means that in Toluca, areas with better transit links could become more attractive to renters, potentially increasing rental income.
We can see this happening in Toluca already. In San José del Río, the introduction of a new bus rapid transit (BRT) system has led to higher rental rates and property values. This local example shows the potential for similar growth in other parts of Toluca with improved transportation.
So, if you're considering buying property in Toluca, keep an eye on areas with upcoming transit projects. These areas might not only offer convenience but also promise better rental yields as public transport improves.
Investing in such areas could be a smart move, as tenants increasingly prioritize accessibility when choosing where to live. This shift in tenant preferences, combined with infrastructure improvements, could make certain neighborhoods in Toluca more lucrative for property investors.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, El Universal, Toluca.gob.mx
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6) Toluca will see a demographic shift as rural residents move to the city for jobs
Toluca is seeing a big shift as more people from rural areas move there for jobs.
People are flocking to Toluca because of the booming industrial and service sectors. In 2024, the manufacturing sector alone employed 21,600 people, with an average monthly salary of $2,060 MX. This is a magnet for those looking for better job prospects.
Mexico's net migration rate is dropping, which means more people are heading to cities like Toluca rather than leaving. This makes urban areas more appealing to those from the countryside.
Improved transportation is another draw. With better roads and public transit, commuting to work in Toluca is easier than ever, making it a prime spot for job seekers.
Economic growth potential is also a factor. As Toluca continues to develop, new businesses and industries are likely to emerge, offering even more opportunities.
All these elements make Toluca an attractive destination for those seeking a better life, fueling its demographic transformation.
Sources: Macrotrends, Economia.gob.mx, Trading Economics
7) Foreign buyers from the U.S. and Canada will increasingly target Toluca for affordable retirement options
American and Canadian retirees are increasingly moving abroad for more affordable living and healthcare.
With the cost of living rising in Canada and the U.S., Mexico is becoming a popular choice for retirees. Imagine living in Canada where a single person spends about $2,042 USD monthly, compared to just $982 USD in Mexico. This huge difference makes places like Toluca very appealing for those seeking affordability.
Another factor is the favorable exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso, which makes Mexican real estate even more affordable for North American retirees. While we don't have specific numbers for Toluca, the overall trend in Mexico shows a boom in real estate developments targeting international buyers.
In Toluca, you can find charming neighborhoods with a mix of modern amenities and traditional Mexican culture. The city offers a unique blend of urban and rural living, making it an attractive option for those looking to retire in a peaceful yet vibrant environment.
Moreover, Toluca's proximity to Mexico City provides easy access to world-class healthcare and international airports, which is a big plus for retirees. This convenience, combined with the lower cost of living, makes Toluca a hidden gem for those considering retirement in Mexico.
As more retirees look for affordable options, Toluca is poised to see a rise in foreign buyers from the U.S. and Canada. The city's growing infrastructure and welcoming community make it an ideal spot for those seeking a new adventure in their golden years.
Sources: Business Insider, Pacific Prime, Mexico Business News
8) Toluca's rental market will attract more foreign investors due to its expanding expatriate community
Foreign investors are eyeing Toluca's rental market due to its expanding expatriate community.
In recent years, Toluca has become a magnet for people from the United States, Venezuela, and Spain. This influx means the expatriate population is growing, even if exact numbers aren't available. As more people move in, the demand for rental properties naturally rises.
With Toluca's population and economy on the upswing, the need for housing is increasing. A thriving economy often means more people looking for places to live, making it a hot spot for investors. The city's economic growth is a key driver behind this trend.
The Mexican government's economic data shows that foreign investment in Toluca is significant. In 2023, the city saw international sales hit US$4.35 billion, a 5.02% jump from the previous year. This uptick suggests that foreign investors are already keen on Toluca, and real estate could be their next target.
Investors are likely to find Toluca's rental market appealing because of its vibrant expatriate community. The city's economic activity and population growth are creating a perfect storm for rental demand. As more expatriates settle in, the rental market becomes even more attractive.
With these factors in play, it's no wonder that foreign investors are increasingly interested in Toluca. The city's growing expatriate community and economic vitality make it a promising market for rental properties.
Sources: Economía.gob.mx, Economía.gob.mx
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Mexico compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
9) International companies in Toluca will attract more foreign buyers looking for short-term accommodations
The rise of international companies in Toluca is reshaping the local property market.
With major players like ZF Group investing $43.2 million to expand their manufacturing, the city is becoming a hub for global business. This influx of international firms is not just about business; it's about people. Expatriates and business travelers are flocking to Toluca, and they need places to stay. Short-term rentals are their go-to choice, offering flexibility and convenience that traditional housing can't match.
As more companies set up shop, the demand for short-term rentals is expected to soar. These properties are particularly appealing to foreign workers who are in town for a few months or even a year. They want a home-like environment without the long-term commitment, and Toluca's growing market is ready to meet that need.
Companies like ZF Group are not just bringing jobs; they're bringing people. The establishment of new production facilities and research centers is a magnet for expatriates. This influx is creating vibrant expatriate communities, which in turn fuels the demand for short-term accommodations. It's a cycle that benefits both the local economy and the real estate market.
Real estate agencies are already seeing the effects. There's a noticeable uptick in inquiries from foreign buyers whenever international companies make a move into a new area. Toluca is no exception. The recent investments by companies like ZF Group are likely to attract even more interest from abroad, as foreign buyers look for opportunities in this burgeoning market.
For those considering investing in property in Toluca, now might be the perfect time. The presence of international companies is a strong indicator of future growth, and the demand for short-term rentals is only going to increase. Foreign property buyers are eyeing Toluca as a prime location for investment, driven by the city's expanding international business scene.
Sources: Caribe Luxury Homes, Mexico Business News
10) Toluca’s rental yields will rise in areas with new commercial developments attracting more professionals
Rental yields in Toluca are on the rise thanks to new commercial developments.
One of the key projects is a mixed-use development in Toluca Lake, featuring a Gelson's grocery store. This isn't just any store; it's a magnet for working professionals who crave convenience. With more professionals moving in, the demand for nearby housing is set to soar.
These new commercial spaces aren't just about shopping; they're job creators. Take Gelson's, for instance. It's not just a store; it's a hub that will boost local employment. More jobs mean more people looking for homes close to work, which naturally pushes rental yields higher.
Living close to work is a big deal for professionals. It's all about convenience and lifestyle. As new businesses and amenities pop up, these areas become hot spots, driving up property values and, in turn, increasing rental yields.
Plus, with more commercial spaces like Gelson's, expect a surge in foot traffic and consumer spending. This buzz makes the neighborhood even more appealing to renters, further enhancing the area's desirability.
So, if you're considering investing in property, keep an eye on these developments. They're not just changing the landscape; they're reshaping the rental market in Toluca.
Sources: Urbanize LA, Landgate, Global Property Guide
11) Rental yields in Toluca's suburbs will decline as more people choose homeownership
In Toluca, more people are buying homes instead of renting, a trend that picked up speed in 2023 and 2024.
Thanks to favorable interest rates and government incentives, homeownership has become more accessible, especially for first-time buyers. This shift means that suburban rental properties are seeing less demand, as more folks prefer owning their homes.
With fewer people looking to rent, landlords in these areas might struggle to keep their properties occupied. This situation often leads to lower rental yields, as landlords may need to reduce prices to attract tenants.
The National Association of Realtors predicts that more mortgage options and stable interest rates will continue to encourage home buying. This means that the trend towards homeownership is likely to persist, further impacting rental yields in suburban areas.
As housing becomes more affordable and the middle class gains purchasing power, the preference for owning over renting is expected to grow. This shift is particularly noticeable in suburban areas, where rental yields are already feeling the pressure.
For potential buyers, this is a great time to consider purchasing a home, as the market conditions are favorable. However, landlords in suburban Toluca might need to rethink their strategies to maintain profitability.
Sources: CBS News, Global Property Guide
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12) Toluca’s property prices will steadily rise with the growing local economy
Toluca's employment rates have been on the rise, signaling a thriving local economy.
From 2010 to 2020, Toluca's population grew by 16.9%, which means more people are working and contributing to the economy. This bustling activity is a good sign for anyone thinking about buying property here.
The Toluca Metropolitan Area is seeing its GDP climb, with international sales hitting US$4.35 billion in 2023. That's a 5.02% jump from the previous year, showing that the economy is strong enough to support higher property prices.
Big investments are happening in Toluca, like the 58-kilometer railway line to Mexico City. This project, costing around 90 billion pesos, is set to improve connectivity, making the area more attractive and likely boosting housing demand.
With these developments, property prices in Toluca are expected to rise steadily. The growing economy and infrastructure improvements are key factors driving this trend.
For potential buyers, the combination of a growing workforce and better transport links makes Toluca an appealing place to invest in property.
Sources: Properstar, Economía.gob.mx, Tacna.net
13) Toluca airport's surrounding area will attract more investors with planned expansions and more flight routes
The area around Toluca's airport is becoming a hot spot for investors.
In 2023, Toluca International Airport saw a surge in passenger traffic, jumping to 1,520,255 passengers from just 585,036 in 2021. This boom in air travel hints at a growing demand, which could attract more airlines and routes. With more flights, the region becomes a more appealing hub for businesses and travelers alike.
There's also buzz about the federal government wanting to make the airport public. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has talked about acquiring all shares to transform the airport. This move could mean more investment and expansion, boosting the airport's capacity and services. When airports grow, the surrounding areas often see a spike in economic activity, drawing in more investors.
Another exciting development is the planned 57.7 km high-speed railroad linking Toluca and Mexico City. This infrastructure upgrade will significantly improve the airport's connectivity. Better transport links make the area more accessible, which is a big plus for businesses and travelers, enhancing its investment potential.
Insiders know that infrastructure improvements like these can transform a region. As the airport expands and connectivity improves, the area around it becomes more attractive for real estate and commercial investments. Investors are keenly watching these developments, anticipating a rise in property values.
With these changes, the region is poised for a real estate boom. The combination of increased air traffic, government interest, and improved transport links makes it a prime location for future growth. Investors looking for opportunities in Mexico should keep an eye on Toluca.
Sources: Wikipedia, Mexico Now, Leica Geosystems
14) New public transport in Toluca will boost accessibility and desirability in certain neighborhoods
The new public transportation initiatives in Toluca, especially the Mexico-Toluca Interurban Train, are set to make certain neighborhoods more accessible and desirable.
Imagine cutting your travel time by 90 minutes for a round trip—that's what this train promises. With a capacity to move 230,000 passengers daily, it's a game-changer for public transportation. This isn't just about getting from point A to B faster; it's about transforming how people live and work in Toluca.
When public transportation gets a boost, areas around transit hubs often see a boom in residential and commercial development. Think of cities where new developments pop up near successful transit systems. Improved public transportation means more foot traffic, which is great news for local businesses as more people visit these areas.
The state government of México isn't stopping with just the train. They've got big plans, including a metro system in Toluca and several bus corridors. This shows a strong commitment to making neighborhoods more accessible. Urban planning studies often predict growth in transit-oriented developments as public transportation improves, making these areas even more desirable.
These initiatives are not just about convenience; they're about reshaping the urban landscape. As public transportation becomes more efficient, expect to see a shift in where people choose to live and work. It's a ripple effect that starts with better transit and ends with vibrant, thriving communities.
So, if you're thinking about buying property in Toluca, keep an eye on these transit developments. They could be the key to finding a neighborhood that's not only accessible but also on the rise.
Sources: Mexico Business News, ITDP, Mexico News Daily
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Mexico. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
15) Property values in Toluca’s western neighborhoods will rise as new commercial developments draw more residents
Toluca's western neighborhoods are buzzing with new commercial developments, drawing in more residents and likely boosting property values.
These changes are largely driven by increased investment in commercial infrastructure. Just like in Chicago's LaSalle Street, where underused office spaces were transformed into residential units, Toluca is seeing a similar trend that could enhance property values.
In Greater Toluca Lake, the real estate market is showing signs of stability. While the median home sale price dipped slightly in 2024, the price per square foot actually went up, hinting at a stable market poised for growth as new developments unfold.
The neighborhood's charm is undeniable, with iconic spots like the first International House of Pancakes and the oldest Bob’s Big Boy. These businesses not only add character but also attract more retail outlets, which can further drive up property values.
Accessibility is another key factor. The proposed transit station in the Sherman Oaks-Studio City-Toluca Lake-Cahuenga Pass area will improve transportation links, making the area more appealing to both residents and businesses.
With these developments, Toluca's western neighborhoods are becoming a hotspot for potential buyers, as new commercial projects continue to draw interest and enhance the area's appeal.
Sources: Los Angeles Times, Chicago YIMBY, Redfin
16) Toluca’s central neighborhoods will see moderate price rises with urban renewal projects boosting their appeal
Toluca's central neighborhoods are on the rise thanks to urban renewal projects.
These changes are largely driven by increased investment in urban renewal. The Toluca City Council is working with UNESCO to catalog intangible cultural heritage and better manage historical sites. This partnership is not just about preservation; it's about boosting cultural and creative activities to enhance Toluca's image and economy.
Infrastructure improvements are also playing a big role. The Toluca-Mexico City Train project, which was 70% complete by 2023, is set to improve connectivity. This makes central neighborhoods more attractive to both residents and investors. Media coverage has been buzzing about these projects, highlighting efforts to improve cultural heritage and the city's overall image.
Public announcements about new cultural and recreational projects, like the UNESCO Thematic Indicators for Culture in the 2030 Agenda, are adding to the excitement. These initiatives aim to improve quality of life and support sustainable development, which in turn positively impacts property values.
Sources: Mexico Business News, UNESCO
17) Toluca’s rental prices will rise in areas with new educational institutions drawing students and staff
In Toluca, rental prices are set to rise in areas with new educational institutions.
With more students enrolling at places like Instituto Tecnológico De Toluca, the demand for nearby housing is increasing. This surge in student numbers means more people are looking for places to live close to their schools.
Students and staff often prefer to live near their campuses for convenience, which is why the need for student housing is on the rise. This trend is evident as more student beds are being filled near college campuses in 2024.
Looking at other educational hubs, we see a pattern: rental prices climb as educational institutions grow. For example, in Toluca Lake, CA, rents went up by 4.2% last year, showing how education can drive local rental markets.
In Toluca, this means areas around new schools are likely to see increased rental demand, pushing prices higher. The influx of students and staff looking for housing will naturally lead to a competitive rental market.
So, if you're considering buying property in Toluca, keep an eye on areas near new educational institutions. These spots are likely to become hot rental markets, attracting both students and staff who want to live close to their schools.
Sources: Economía.gob.mx, YieldPro, Apartments.com
While this article provides thoughtful analysis and insights based on credible and carefully selected sources, it is not, and should never be considered, financial advice. We put significant effort into researching, aggregating, and analyzing data to present you with an informed perspective. However, every analysis reflects subjective choices, such as the selection of sources and methodologies, and no single piece can encompass the full complexity of the market. Always conduct your own research, seek professional advice, and make decisions based on your own judgment. Any financial risks or losses remain your responsibility.