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Tijuana's property market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with home prices more than doubling from 2020 to 2024. The city's strategic border location, growing economy, and cross-border worker population are driving demand that consistently outpaces supply, creating strong upward pressure on prices.
Property prices in Tijuana are likely to continue rising in 2026, supported by population growth of 36,000 people annually, limited new housing supply, and major infrastructure improvements scheduled for completion. However, the pace of growth may moderate compared to the dramatic 19% annual increases seen between 2020-2024.
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Tijuana property prices have grown at an average rate of 19.1% annually from 2020 to 2024, reaching an average of 5 million pesos by 2024. The market shows strong fundamentals with persistent housing shortages and growing demand from both domestic migrants and U.S. cross-border workers.
While growth may moderate in 2026, several factors support continued price appreciation including GDP growth projections of 2-3% for Baja California, major infrastructure completions, and rental yields that exceed national averages at 5-8%.
| Metric | Current Status (2025) | 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Average Home Price | 5 million pesos | 5.5-6 million pesos |
| Annual Price Growth | 19.1% (2020-2024 average) | 8-12% (moderated) |
| Population Growth | 36,000 people yearly | Stable at ~35,000 |
| Cross-border Workers | 70,642 (down 20%) | 65,000-70,000 |
| Time on Market | 45-60 days | 40-55 days |
| Mortgage Rate | 9.36% | 8.5-9.5% |
| GDP Growth (Baja California) | 2-3% | 1.1-2.5% |
How much did the average home in Tijuana cost in 2020, 2022, and 2024, and how fast has that price been growing per year in percentage terms?
Tijuana home prices have experienced dramatic growth over the past four years.
In 2020, the average home price in Tijuana ranged from 1.8 to 2 million pesos for newly built properties. By 2022, this figure had climbed to approximately 2.2 million pesos. As of 2024, the average home price reached 5 million pesos, representing a significant acceleration in the market.
The annual growth rate between 2020 and 2024 averaged 19.1% per year, using 1.9 million pesos as the baseline and 5 million pesos as the 2024 figure. This represents one of the fastest property appreciation rates in Mexico, driven by the city's unique position as a border hub and limited housing supply relative to demand.
This explosive growth reflects Tijuana's transformation from an affordable border city to a premium real estate market. The pace significantly exceeds Mexico's national average property appreciation and even outperforms many major Mexican metropolitan areas.
It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.
What's the current average price per square meter in Tijuana for condos, single-family homes, and luxury properties?
As of September 2025, Tijuana's price per square meter varies significantly by property type and location.
| Property Type | Price Range (MXN per m²) | Premium Areas |
|---|---|---|
| Condos/Apartments | 54,505 - 55,800 | Zona Centro, Playas de Tijuana |
| Single-family homes | 35,065 - 50,600 | Zona Dorada, Chapultepec |
| Luxury properties | 65,000 - 84,712 | Zona Dorada, Playas de Tijuana |
| Budget condos | 45,000 - 50,000 | Otay, La Mesa |
| Mid-range houses | 40,000 - 55,000 | Fracc. El Refugio, Sanchez Taboada |
| Ultra-luxury | 85,000+ | Exclusive Playas developments |
| Commercial mixed-use | 60,000 - 75,000 | Zona Centro, Via Rápida |
How many new housing units are expected to be built in Tijuana between 2024 and 2026, and how does that compare with yearly demand?
Tijuana faces a persistent housing shortage that continues to drive price appreciation.
While specific figures for new construction between 2024-2026 aren't available, historical data shows that only 36.6% of homes sold in Tijuana are newly built, indicating limited new supply. The city's population grows by approximately 36,000 people annually, requiring at least 7,000-8,000 new homes per year to meet basic demand.
Current construction activity appears insufficient to meet this demand. Most new developments focus on higher-end properties targeting cross-border workers and U.S. buyers, leaving a gap in affordable housing options. This supply-demand imbalance is a key factor supporting continued price growth.
The shortage is particularly acute in areas near the border crossings, where demand from commuters remains strong despite recent decreases in cross-border worker numbers. New construction is also constrained by infrastructure limitations and zoning restrictions in prime locations.
What has been the average annual rent increase in Tijuana over the past five years, and how do rent yields compare to Mexico's national average?
Tijuana's rental market has experienced significant pressure with substantial annual increases.
Between 2019 and 2024, rents increased by 39% cumulatively (from $4.36 to $6.05 per square meter), averaging approximately 7% per year. An earlier period from 2016 to 2022 saw even more dramatic growth of 63%, averaging 8.4% annually. In 2024 alone, rents jumped 30% compared to the previous year, signaling intense pressure on tenants.
Rental yields in Tijuana typically range from 5-8%, which exceeds Mexico City's average of 4-6% and matches or slightly surpasses the national average. These attractive yields, combined with strong rental demand, make Tijuana properties appealing to investors seeking cash flow and appreciation.
The rental market benefits from consistent demand from cross-border workers, domestic migrants, and students. Premium areas near border crossings command the highest rents and most stable occupancy rates.
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How many U.S. buyers are purchasing in Tijuana each year, and what share of total transactions do they represent?
U.S. buyers represent a growing and significant segment of Tijuana's real estate market.
While comprehensive annual data is limited, U.S. buyers typically account for 15-25% of transactions in higher-end developments and luxury projects. This percentage is particularly high in areas near border crossings and premium beachfront developments in Playas de Tijuana.
U.S. buyers are attracted to Tijuana for several reasons: proximity to San Diego, relatively affordable prices compared to Southern California, and the ability to live in Mexico while working in the United States. Many are cross-border workers, retirees, or investors seeking rental income properties.
The U.S. buyer segment focuses primarily on condos and luxury properties, with average purchase prices typically exceeding the local market average. This demographic has contributed significantly to price appreciation in premium segments and continues to drive demand for new developments targeting international buyers.
What is the current mortgage interest rate in Mexico, and how has it shifted compared to 2020 and 2023?
Mexican mortgage rates have fluctuated significantly over recent years, impacting affordability for local buyers.
| Year | Mortgage Rate | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~7.5% | Moderate lending activity |
| 2021 | 7.0% (historic low) | Peak financing conditions |
| 2023 | ~9.36% | Reduced affordability |
| 2025 | 9.36% | Stable but high rates |
| Projected 2026 | 8.5-9.5% | Potential modest improvement |
The current rate of 9.36% represents a significant increase from the historic low of 7.0% in 2021. This rise has reduced affordability for Mexican buyers, contributing to increased reliance on cash purchases and foreign buyers who often don't require local financing.
Higher rates have not significantly dampened demand in Tijuana due to the city's unique economic dynamics and continued population growth. However, they have shifted the buyer profile toward higher-income segments and cash purchasers.
What percentage of Tijuana's population growth is driven by migration from other Mexican states versus returnees from the U.S.?
Tijuana's population growth is driven by a combination of domestic migration and U.S. returnees.
Approximately two-thirds of the city's annual population growth of 36,000 people comes from migration from other Mexican states, while one-third consists of returnees from the United States. This migration pattern creates consistent housing demand and supports the rental market.
Domestic migrants are typically drawn by employment opportunities in manufacturing, services, and cross-border trade. Many come from southern Mexican states seeking better economic opportunities. U.S. returnees often include deportees, voluntary returnees, and Mexican-Americans choosing to relocate to Mexico.
Both groups contribute to housing demand, though with different preferences. Domestic migrants often seek affordable rental options, while U.S. returnees may have higher purchasing power and familiarity with American-style amenities.
It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.
How many cross-border workers currently live in Tijuana and commute daily to San Diego, and how has that number trended over the past three years?
The cross-border worker population has experienced a notable decline in recent years.
As of 2025, approximately 70,642 workers commute daily from Tijuana to San Diego, representing a 20% decrease from 87,190 in Q1 2024. This decline reflects stricter U.S. immigration enforcement and changing border policies that have made cross-border commuting more challenging.
The trend over the past three years shows a consistent decrease in cross-border worker numbers, which has impacted residential rental demand in areas near border crossings. However, this population still represents a substantial portion of housing demand, particularly for properties offering convenient access to border crossings.
Despite the decline, cross-border workers remain an important demographic for Tijuana real estate, typically seeking quality housing with good transportation links to border crossings. Their relatively high incomes compared to local standards continue to support premium rental rates and property values near crossing points.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Mexico versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.
What's the projected GDP growth rate for Baja California in 2025 and 2026, and how does that typically affect property prices historically?
Baja California's economic outlook supports continued real estate growth, though at a more moderate pace.
The projected GDP growth rate for Baja California is 2-3% in 2025 and 1.1-2.5% in 2026, depending on trade conditions and economic scenarios. While these rates are modest, they remain positive and supportive of continued economic expansion.
Historically, every 1% of GDP growth correlates with a 3-5% rise in property prices, particularly in border cities like Tijuana with high demand and limited supply. This relationship is especially strong in Tijuana due to its unique economic position and cross-border dynamics.
The projected growth rates suggest property price appreciation in the 6-15% range for 2025-2026, representing a moderation from the extreme 19% annual growth seen in recent years but still indicating healthy appreciation. The manufacturing sector, tourism, and cross-border trade continue to drive the regional economy.
How many major infrastructure projects are scheduled to be completed by 2026, and what are their expected impacts on real estate values?
Multiple major infrastructure projects are scheduled for completion by 2026, creating positive conditions for real estate appreciation.
Key projects include border crossing expansions, transit system upgrades, and extensive wastewater system improvements under IBWC Minute No. 328. Many of these projects have accelerated timelines, with completion scheduled for December 2025-2027, ahead of earlier projections.
The infrastructure improvements include wastewater treatment system upgrades, pump station repairs, and enhanced border crossing facilities. These projects are expected to stabilize growth and boost real estate values, particularly near upgraded border crossings and areas with improved utilities.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects typically see 10-20% value appreciation within 2-3 years of completion. Areas like Otay Mesa and zones near border crossings are likely to benefit most from these improvements.
Additional transit improvements and water management systems will enhance livability and attract more residents and businesses, supporting long-term property value growth across multiple neighborhoods.
What was the historical appreciation rate for properties in Tijuana during past growth cycles, for example 2010–2014 and 2016–2019?
Tijuana has experienced multiple growth cycles with varying appreciation rates.
During 2010-2014, while specific Tijuana data is limited, the broader Mexican market experienced moderate growth estimated at 5-7% annually. This period followed the global financial crisis and represented a recovery phase with steady but unspectacular gains.
The 2016-2019 cycle showed more dramatic acceleration, particularly in northern border cities like Tijuana. Annual growth rates during this period reached approximately 8-10%, driven by increased U.S.-Mexico trade, NAFTA renegotiation discussions, and growing cross-border worker populations.
The most recent cycle (2020-2024) has been unprecedented, with 19.1% annual growth far exceeding historical norms. This exceptional performance reflects unique factors including pandemic-driven housing demand, cross-border dynamics, and severe supply constraints.
Historical patterns suggest that high-growth periods are typically followed by moderation, supporting expectations of 8-12% annual appreciation in 2026 rather than continuation of the extreme recent rates.
What is the current average time a property stays on the market before being sold, and how has that number changed year over year?
Tijuana's property market shows strong liquidity with decreasing time-to-sale metrics.
The current median time for properties to sell is 45-60 days, representing a significant improvement from 90 days in 2021. This compression in sales time reflects intensifying competition among buyers and limited inventory availability.
Year-over-year trends show properties selling faster each year as demand continues to outpace local supply. Premium properties in desirable locations often sell within 30-45 days, while more affordable options may take 60-75 days but still move relatively quickly compared to historical norms.
The rapid sales pace indicates a seller's market with strong underlying demand. Properties priced competitively for their location and condition typically receive multiple offers, particularly in areas popular with cross-border workers and U.S. buyers.
This trend supports continued price appreciation as limited inventory and quick sales create upward pressure on pricing throughout the market.
It's something we develop in our Mexico property pack.
Conclusion
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.
Tijuana's property market is positioned for continued growth in 2026, though at a more sustainable pace than the dramatic increases of recent years.
The combination of population growth, infrastructure improvements, and persistent supply shortages supports price appreciation, making 2026 a favorable time for property investment in this dynamic border city.
Sources
- TalkBaja - Housing Prices in Tijuana Through the Roof
- Reddit - Real Estate Prices Discussion
- CEIC Data - Mexico House Prices Growth
- The LatinVestor - Tijuana Price Forecasts
- The LatinVestor - Mexico Real Estate Market
- The LatinVestor - Tijuana Real Estate Trends
- Global Property Guide - Mexico Price History
- Mexico News Daily - Cross-Border Workers Drop
- World Population Review - Tijuana
- CEIC Data - Mexico Mortgage Rates