Will property prices keep rising in Costa Rica?

Where are prices today, and where have they moved?

Before forecasting anything, it helps to see where prices stand: what a home costs now, how much prices moved in the past year, which areas and property types led, and what is pushing them.

The short version: Costa Rica is a two-speed market. Apartments in western San José are still climbing, ordinary houses are flat, and the expensive beach markets in Guanacaste have cooled.

What does a home cost in Costa Rica today?

On TuLugar in October 2026, the median 2-bedroom apartment for sale was listed at about $220,000 (₡101,000,000) and the median 3-bedroom house at about $350,000 (₡160,000,000). These are asking prices, not sale prices.

Per square meter, houses were listed at a median of about $1,556 (₡710,000) and apartments at about $2,414 (₡1,105,000). Apartments cost more per square meter because they are smaller, newer and concentrated in the best parts of San José and the beach towns.

Another big portal, Propiedades.cr, showed a median of $499,000 for houses and $270,000 for apartments in August 2026. Its mix includes more large houses and beach properties, which pulls the median up.

Most homes for sale fall between roughly $80,000 and $1 million (₡36,600,000 to ₡458,000,000), from older family houses inland to dollar-priced condos and villas on the coast.

How much have prices changed over the past 12 months?

Costa Rica has no national house-price index, so nobody can give one honest national figure. The few measured series point in different directions.

San José is clearly rising. The Encuentra24-based index tracked by Global Property Guide showed San José apartment prices up 12.48% in the year to the second quarter of 2026. Consumer prices barely moved over the same period (+0.34% in the year to September 2026, INEC), so almost all of that is a real gain.

New-build apartments rose too: in San José from about $2,546 to $2,902 per square meter between mid-2025 and mid-2026 (+14%), and in Santa Ana from $1,878 to $2,035 (+8.4%).

Nationally, listing prices were flat over the summer. On Propiedades.cr, the median house and apartment prices did not move between July and August 2026. Guanacaste was the exception, with the median asking price down 5.0% in August alone.

Which areas have risen the fastest?

The only areas with a measured, recent price rise are in western San José: the capital's apartments (+12.5% in a year) and new builds in Santa Ana (+8.4%). Escazú, Santa Ana and Rohrmoser are where well-paid locals and expats compete for good apartments near schools, hospitals and offices.

The beach towns are expensive but not measurably rising. In October 2026, Costa Rica Realtor put Flamingo-Potrero at about $3,863 per square meter, Nosara at $3,836 and Tamarindo houses at $3,226. No source we found shows a 2026 price increase there, and Guanacaste's median asking price fell in August.

So the old idea that Nosara, Flamingo and Tamarindo gain 12% to 20% a year no longer holds. Those were boom-era figures from 2021 to 2023.

Which property types are gaining the most value?

Apartments in the capital come first, especially new 1- and 2-bedroom units in western San José, which is where the measured gains are.

Ordinary houses come next, roughly flat in 2026: the national median house price on Propiedades.cr stayed at $499,000 between July and August 2026.

Luxury coastal villas come last. Black Coast Estates says median home values in Guanacaste fell from peaks above $900,000 in 2024 to about $533,000 in early 2025. Part of that drop is a cheaper mix of homes sold, but sellers of big villas have clearly lost pricing power.

What is pushing prices up or down?

Pushing up: foreign demand, mostly from the United States and Canada, and tourism in Guanacaste. Liberia airport's international arrivals grew 11.9% from January to September 2026, against 4.8% for the whole country. The economy is growing too: the central bank expected 3.4% growth in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027 (July 2026).

Pushing down: new supply. INEC counted 26,212 new homes approved in 2025, up 15.4%, and apartment and condo units approved jumped 46.2%. Registered residential construction rose another 4.1% in the first half of 2026 (CFIA).

Also pushing down: tourism as a whole has not fully recovered. Costa Rica had 2.94 million international arrivals in 2025, still about 6% below the 3.14 million of 2019, and the strong colón made the country more expensive for visitors paid in dollars.

What should you expect for the rest of 2026 and for 2027?

With 2026 almost over, the useful question is the next 12 months. No measured series gives a national figure for 2026, so we built the forecast segment by segment.

The best locations are still supported by foreign buyers and limited good land, while ordinary local housing depends on salaries and mortgage rates, and the beach market has to absorb a lot of new condos.

How much could prices rise over the next 12 months?

Our central estimate is flat to +3% for national asking prices in dollars. That is close to inflation, which was only 0.34% in the year to September 2026, so a small real gain at best.

Brokers quote national gains of 3% to 8% for 2026 (Black Coast Estates), but without a published method. We stay below that because listings were flat over the summer and supply is growing.

Segment	Last measured change	Our estimate for the next 12 months
San José apartments	+12.5% in the year to Q2 2026 (Global Property Guide)	+5% to +10%: still rising, slowed by new condo supply
New builds in Santa Ana	+8.4% in the year to Q2 2026 (Global Property Guide)	+3% to +7%
Ordinary houses nationwide	Flat between July and August 2026 (Propiedades.cr)	0% to +3%
Guanacaste beach homes and condos	-5.0% in August 2026 alone (Propiedades.cr)	-5% to +3%, with bigger cuts on overpriced listings
Older houses in inland towns	No index	0% to +3%, mostly tracking local wages

Which areas could see the biggest gains?

Western San José (Escazú, Santa Ana, Rohrmoser, Sabana) has the best chance of further gains, because it is where prices are measurably rising and where both locals and expats buy.

Liberia is the one to watch. Its airport is growing faster than the rest of the country, and in June 2026 the transport ministry started an apron expansion worth more than ₡3 billion, due before the end of 2026. Homes there are still much cheaper than on the beach.

In the beach towns (Nosara, Flamingo-Potrero, Tamarindo, Santa Teresa), only homes priced in line with recent sales, with clean title and water, are likely to gain. Overpriced listings are more likely to be cut.

Which property types should hold up best?

Well-located 1- and 2-bedroom apartments in western San José should hold up best: they are what locals with mortgages and expats both look for, and they sell faster than big houses.

Beach condos with proven rental numbers come next, but be careful. Short-term rental supply keeps growing: AirROI counted 1,448 active listings in Tamarindo, up 28% in a year, so every new condo competes for the same guests.

Overpriced luxury villas and older houses in weaker inland towns are the most likely to underperform: the first because their buyers are now pickier, the second because local wages and credit limit what buyers can pay.

How will interest rates affect prices?

Rates are giving mild support. The central bank cut its policy rate by 0.25 points to 3.00% in July 2026, its first cut in seven months, and held it there on 24 September 2026.

Mortgages are still far above that. BAC advertises starting rates of 7.25% in dollars and 8.00% in colones, and foreigners are typically quoted 7% to 10% in dollars. Non-resident foreigners usually get only up to 50% of the price financed.

For buyers who borrow, the effect is real: on a 25-year loan, a 1-point rise in the mortgage rate cuts what the same monthly payment can borrow by about 7% to 8.5%, and a 1-point fall adds as much. Many foreign buyers pay cash, so rates matter most for locals buying apartments in the Central Valley.

What are the biggest risks for prices?

Too many new condos. Apartment and condo approvals rose 46.2% in 2025, and many of these projects target the same foreign buyers and the same holiday renters. In San José, new builds already average $2,902 per square meter, below the $3,163 median for all apartments listed in the capital.

Water in Guanacaste. In September 2026, 32 community water boards (ASADAs) reported rationing because of El Niño, and a drought warning runs until March 2027. Without a water availability letter, a lot can't be built on, whatever its price.

Security. Costa Rica recorded 873 homicides in 2025, the third most violent year on record, including 79 in Guanacaste. It hasn't stopped foreign buyers so far, but it weighs on how expats choose where to live.

Legal risk on the coast. A bill to give 20-year special concessions to owners whose titles were annulled because they sit in the Maritime Zone was approved in committee in March 2026 and contested in September 2026; it has not been voted. Until it is, any title close to the beach needs a careful check.

Is it a good time to buy a rental property?

Only if the numbers work without counting on price gains. Gross yields look good: Global Property Guide put the national average for apartments at 7.63% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 7.80% at the end of 2025.

Net yields are much lower. After the rental income tax (12.75% of gross rent for an individual landlord, non-residents included), the 0.25% municipal property tax, HOA fees, management, vacancy and upkeep, a long lease nets about 3% a year by our estimate. Short-term rentals net about 1.4% nationally once you take out the 13% VAT charged to guests, platform fees, cleaning and utilities.

The case for buying now: San José apartments rent well and prices there are still rising. The case for waiting: on the coast, sellers are cutting prices and holiday-rental supply keeps growing, so patience can buy a better price.

Will the strong colón keep weighing on prices in 2027?

Probably, at least for another year. The colón went from about 501 per US dollar on 1 January 2026 to about 457.5 in October 2026, a gain of about 9%. Yearly averages tell the same story: ₡541.6 in 2023, ₡515.1 in 2024 and ₡503.5 in 2025.

Banks don't expect a reversal soon. In 2026, BN Valores forecast 440 to 450 colones per dollar at the end of the year and Mercado de Valores 455 to 465. Only Banco Nacional's June 2026 projection (about 477 at the end of 2027) pointed to a weaker colón, and it was made before the latest gains.

For prices, this cuts both ways. Most homes in expat areas and on the coast are priced in dollars, so a stronger colón makes them about 9% cheaper for Costa Ricans earning colones, which supports local demand for dollar-priced apartments. For foreigners, the dollar price doesn't move, but HOA fees, labor, renovation and property tax paid in colones all cost more.

What to do: compare dollar prices with dollar prices, sign in dollars when you earn in dollars, add a 10% buffer to any budget in colones, and if you plan to rent out, check whether the rent is in dollars or colones before you count on a yield.

Are Guanacaste beach prices heading for a correction?

A slow one has already started at the top of the market. In August 2026, the median asking price in Guanacaste fell 5.0% in one month to $655,250, while active listings rose slightly to 3,388 (Propiedades.cr). The median listing there had been online for 153 days.

Prices are still high: in October 2026, Costa Rica Realtor put the median house in the province at $679,000 and the median condo at $425,000. On the ground, the Tamarindo Guide wrote in June 2026 that inventory had grown, listings sat longer and price cuts were more common, especially for homes priced as if the 2021-2023 boom never ended.

Demand hasn't gone away. Liberia airport's international arrivals rose 11.9% from January to September 2026. What has changed is that buyers can choose: there are more condos, more holiday rentals and more listings than three years ago. We see a correction of overpriced listings, not a crash.

What to do: ask how long the home has been listed and whether the price was already cut, and start about 10% below asking on anything online for more than six months. Before you sign, check the title at the Registro Nacional, whether the land sits in the Maritime Zone (a concession, not ownership), and that a water availability letter exists for any lot you plan to build on.

Where could prices be in five years?

This part looks at our five-year estimate, the areas and property types most likely to do well, and what infrastructure and population trends could change.

The outlook is positive but modest: gains should stay concentrated in well-connected parts of the Central Valley and in the beach towns that solve their water and title problems.

What is our five-year price forecast?

Our central estimate is that national asking prices in dollars end about 10% to 25% higher by 2031, which is roughly 2% to 4.6% a year. A cautious scenario is 0% to 10% (flat to 1.9% a year); the best locations could reach 30% to 40% (about 5.4% to 7% a year).

For comparison, the San José apartment index rose 42.94% over the five years to mid-2026, about 7.4% a year. We don't expect a repeat nationally: that series covers only the capital's apartments, and supply is now growing much faster than it did.

The key assumptions are steady growth (the central bank expected 3.4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027), low inflation, and no deep recession in the United States, where most foreign buyers come from.

Which areas could grow the most over five years?

Western San José and the Heredia-Alajuela corridor have the strongest case, because jobs, schools and hospitals are there and demand comes from both locals and expats.

Liberia could catch up over five years, thanks to the airport, services and lower prices than the beach towns. Grecia and Atenas may benefit as cheaper options for retirees who want to stay near San José.

In the beach towns, the winners will be the places that fix water and roads. Nosara, Flamingo-Potrero and Tamarindo can still gain, but from already high prices, so we would not count on more than the national range there without a clear local reason.

Which property type could give the best return over five years?

A 2-bedroom apartment in western San José, or a 2- to 3-bedroom condo in a beach town where homes actually sell, should give the best mix of rent, resale and manageable costs.

For that kind of property, our estimate of the total return over five years is about 26% to 41% before resale costs and capital gains tax: about 3% a year in net rent plus 2% to 4.5% a year in price growth.

Large luxury villas can do better in a good year, but they cost more to maintain and take longer to sell, so the risk is higher.

How will new infrastructure affect prices over five years?

Three projects matter. The Liberia airport apron expansion (more than ₡3 billion) started in June 2026 and is due before the end of 2026. The first line of the electric train linking San José, Heredia and Alajuela is planned to start construction in the first half of 2028 and to be finished around 2029-2030. Widening Ruta 27 to Santa Ana and Escazú was still under negotiation in August 2026, with no start date, and the current concession runs to 2033.

No study measures how much these projects add to nearby home prices in Costa Rica. Our advice: pay for infrastructure that exists, not for what has been announced. Train and highway projects in Costa Rica have often been delayed.

The areas most likely to benefit are Liberia and the beach towns it serves (Flamingo, Potrero, Tamarindo, Playas del Coco), and the Heredia and Alajuela suburbs if the train is actually built.

How will population and other trends affect values over five years?

Population growth is slowing. INEC's projections show the population growing more and more slowly and starting to shrink in the 2040s, with Alajuela overtaking San José as the most populated province. So population alone won't create a housing boom.

What matters more is who is buying: smaller households, retirees, remote workers and foreign residents who want a secure home in a practical location. That supports condos and townhouses in gated communities more than large family houses.

Domestic moves should support the suburbs around San José and the airport areas, while foreign residents keep supporting the beach towns, Grecia, Atenas and western San José.

And in ten years?

Over ten years, the gap between good and bad locations should matter more than the national average. Below are our ten-year estimate and the long-term factors that will decide it.

The strongest long-term markets will be places where people want to live, rent and resell, with water, roads and clean titles, not just places that look good in a brochure.

What is our 10-year price estimate?

Our central estimate is that national asking prices in dollars end about 20% to 50% higher by 2036, roughly 1.8% to 4.1% a year. A cautious scenario is 5% to 20%; the best locations could reach 60% to 90% (about 4.8% to 6.6% a year).

The biggest unknowns are whether foreign demand holds up and whether water, roads, security and local incomes keep pace with prices on the coast.

What long-term factors will shape prices?

Stability is the main strength. Costa Rica ranked 28th of 143 countries on the World Justice Project's 2025 Rule of Law Index, well ahead of most of Latin America, and that keeps it attractive to buyers from North America and Europe.

The colón is the wild card. If it stays strong, foreigners' running costs stay high and dollar yields stay thin; if it weakens again, the same homes become cheaper to own and rent out for foreigners.

The main structural risk is that beach-town prices keep rising faster than roads, water, sewage and local incomes can support, as the 2026 water rationing in Guanacaste showed.