Why are Airbnb prices falling in Medellín?

Are Medellín Airbnb prices really falling, or just in one dataset?

Medellín Airbnb prices are falling according to AirDNA, but other major rental-data providers show prices rising. A citywide price collapse is not supported by the evidence.

AirDNA, with data through September 2026, reports an average booked nightly rate of $72, down 16.4% year over year. That is a substantial decline. On a $100 booking, an equivalent reduction would mean charging about $84.

But BNBCalc's latest rolling annual figures show the opposite: nightly rates increased 9% to approximately COP 329,000 (about $103 at today's rate, which shows how far apart the two datasets are). AirROI also reports higher average rates across several recent months, although that alone does not establish a year-over-year increase.

The city's official tourism statistics point to weaker accommodation occupancy, but they do not publish a comparable citywide Airbnb nightly-rate index.

We can therefore confirm that some parts of Medellín's short-term rental market are under price pressure. The stronger claim that Airbnb accommodation is getting cheaper everywhere still needs better evidence.

Why do Airbnb price websites disagree so much about Medellín?

Medellín's Airbnb price estimates disagree because the platforms track different properties and calculate occupancy, revenue, and available nights differently. Their results sometimes point in completely opposite directions.

AirDNA tracks nearly 15,000 active rentals (14,957 in September 2026) across several booking platforms. BNBCalc's Medellín market covers roughly 12,900 listings in its rolling annual figures, while AirROI tracks approximately 14,200 Airbnb listings.

The biggest disagreement concerns how supply has changed. AirDNA reports a 37.5% annual decline in active listings, while AirROI reports 41% growth. BNBCalc estimates a 6% decline. Those are radically different pictures of the same city, and AirDNA's drop partly reflects changes in how it counts listings, not a wave of closures.

Their price figures also require care. AirDNA reports in US dollars, while BNBCalc and AirROI use Colombian pesos. Differences in currency conversion, property mix, and reporting periods can distort comparisons.

Even within BNBCalc's public dashboard, headline figures and its written market summary use different measures. We should use the clearly labeled rolling annual figures rather than combine incompatible numbers.

For now, Medellín's official occupancy data provide a more stable basis for assessing the broader market. The private platforms are most useful when we keep their methodology consistent and compare changes within the same dataset.

Provider	Listings reported	Listing change YoY	Avg. nightly rate	Rate change YoY	Occupancy
AirDNA	14,957	-37.5%	$72	-16.4%	63%
BNBCalc	12,871	-6%	COP 328,768	+9%	46%
AirROI	14,169	+41%	COP 341,132	Not reported	40.9%

Has Medellín built too many Airbnbs?

Medellín has added tourist rentals at an extraordinary pace, and the huge increase in accommodation choices is probably the main reason Airbnb hosts face more competition today.

According to Medellín's tourism department and the National Tourism Registry, the number of registered tourist-housing providers increased from 521 in 2019 to 8,322 in 2026. That is nearly sixteen times as many registrations in seven years.

Traditional hotels barely expanded by comparison. Their registered establishments increased from 730 to 863 over the same period, or around 18%.

Airbtics provides another perspective on the boom. Its Colombian short-term rental review counted 2,890 additional Medellín listings during 2025, the country's second-largest absolute increase after Bogotá.

There is one important distinction: registrations are not the same as individual properties, available rooms, or properties actually accepting bookings. Some of that growth also reflects existing operators becoming officially registered.

Even so, the scale of Medellín's shift toward tourist apartments is hard to miss. Thousands of registered providers now compete for visitors in a market that was much smaller just a few years ago.

Accommodation category	Registered in 2019	Registered in 2026	Total growth
Tourist housing providers	521	8,322	+1,497%
Hotels and similar establishments	730	863	+18%

Has Medellín Airbnb supply grown faster than guest demand?

Medellín's Airbnb market shows signs of too much competition for available bookings, although official figures suggest a relatively mild occupancy slowdown rather than a dramatic collapse.

The city's tourism intelligence system, SITE, reported tourist-home occupancy of 51.0% in 2024 and 51.7% in 2025. That was fairly stable despite years of growth in registered accommodation.

The more recent comparison is weaker. During the first half of 2026, occupancy slipped to 50.5%, compared with 52.2% in the same period a year earlier.

That is a decline of 1.7 percentage points, or about 3.3% relative to the previous occupancy level. A typical property operating at 52.2% occupancy would book approximately 190 nights over a full year. At 50.5%, it would book around 184, assuming the annual pattern matched.

Six fewer nights are unlikely to ruin a profitable rental by themselves. But they can hurt operators who already have thin margins, especially when accompanied by lower nightly rates.

The latest supply figures also deserve some skepticism. As we saw above, private providers disagree about whether the number of active listings is currently rising or falling.

Medellín has clearly become a more competitive rental market after years of rapid growth. The latest official occupancy numbers show some pressure, but they are too stable to justify calling the market severely oversupplied.

Are tourists leaving Medellín?

Tourists are still coming to Medellín in large numbers, and international airport arrivals continue growing. The problem for Airbnb hosts is that visitor growth no longer guarantees stronger bookings.

The Greater Medellín Convention & Visitors Bureau, citing SITE statistics, reported 1,393,228 international migration entries through José María Córdova Airport during the first eight months of 2026. That was 3.9% more than during the same period in 2025.

About 53.9% of those entries came from non-resident visitors. The distinction matters because airport migration entries also include returning Colombian residents and do not represent unique Airbnb customers.

Growth has become uneven, however. In June 2026, international arrivals declined 4.6% from the previous year, while August was almost flat.

The mix of countries is also changing. During the first half of 2026, American visitor numbers declined just 0.7% to 194,488. Mexican arrivals increased 7.2%, Ecuadorian arrivals grew 30.3%, and Dutch arrivals climbed 37.7%.

Medellín therefore continues attracting tourists, including visitors from growing international markets. What remains unclear is whether these newer arrivals book the same neighborhoods, spend similar amounts, or stay as long as the guests who helped drive the earlier Airbnb boom.

Are tourists spending less money in Medellín?

Foreign-card spending in Medellín has fallen sharply in Colombian-peso terms, even though international visitor traffic is still growing. That could help explain why more arrivals are not producing stronger accommodation revenue.

According to Medellín's SITE tourism report, payments processed through Credibanco using foreign cards dropped from COP 833.3 billion to COP 681.7 billion between the first halves of 2025 and 2026.

That is an 18.2% decline, equivalent to COP 151.6 billion less spending through this payment network.

Meanwhile, transactions using Colombian cards increased 17.5%, from COP 904.3 billion to approximately COP 1.06 trillion. Combined spending stayed nearly flat at around COP 1.74 trillion.

A major caveat is the exchange rate. Since the figures are in pesos, a stronger Colombian currency can reduce the reported value of dollar-denominated transactions without an equivalent decline in what visitors spent in their home currencies. Credibanco also covers only part of all payments.

Still, the contrast is worth watching. Medellín is receiving more international arrivals, while the value of foreign-card spending through a major payment processor is considerably lower.

We cannot conclude that every tourist is spending less, but Airbnb investors should be careful about using headline visitor numbers as a substitute for actual booking revenue.

Are Medellín hotels struggling too?

Medellín's hotels are struggling to fill rooms, and their occupancy decline is considerably worse than the recent slowdown in tourist apartments.

The city's hotel occupancy rate reached 77% in 2022, according to Cotelco statistics used by SITE. It then fell to 72.6% in 2023, 68.1% in 2024, and approximately 66% in 2025.

During the first half of 2026, occupancy dropped to just 59%, down 6.6 percentage points from the corresponding period a year earlier.

This makes the slowdown broader than Airbnb. Traditional hotels, serviced apartments, and independent tourist rentals are all competing for overnight guests in a city where available accommodation has expanded.

Interestingly, weaker hotel occupancy has not always meant cheaper hotel rooms. The average citywide hotel rate was COP 437,378 during the first half of 2026. In central Medellín, average hotel rates actually increased 49% year over year.

Accommodation businesses can lose occupancy while maintaining or raising their rates. Revenue depends on the combination of price and booked nights, and operators can respond differently to the same market conditions.

The hotel's published rate also cannot be compared directly with an entire Airbnb apartment without accounting for guest capacity, services, and property size.

Indicator	First half 2025	First half 2026	Change
Hotel occupancy	65.6%	59.0%	-6.6 pp
Tourist-home occupancy	52.2%	50.5%	-1.7 pp
Central Medellín hotel room rate	COP 132,680	COP 197,753	+49.0%

Are Medellín Airbnb hosts cutting prices to get more bookings?

Some Medellín Airbnb hosts are likely competing more aggressively on price, but the available data cannot establish how many individual operators have actually reduced their rates.

AirDNA's figures show the trade-off. Its average booked nightly rate fell 16.4% year over year, yet occupancy still sits at 63% of available nights. Hosts in that dataset are keeping calendars full by charging less.

But another large provider reports a different outcome. BNBCalc shows rising nightly rates alongside falling occupancy and revenue per available night. Its estimates suggest that charging more has not translated into stronger revenue across the properties it tracks.

These two patterns can coexist. Some operators lower prices to attract bookings, while others maintain higher rates and accept more vacant nights.

There is also a difference between an individual host reducing prices and the market's average rate falling because cheaper properties account for a larger share of bookings.

Medellín hosts currently need to pay closer attention to booked revenue than to their advertised nightly price. A cheaper apartment with more reservations can outperform an expensive one that stays empty.

Which Medellín neighborhoods have the cheapest Airbnbs now?

Belén, La Candelaria, and Laureles-Estadio are among the cheaper major Airbnb areas in Medellín, while selected parts of El Poblado still command much higher nightly rates.

TuLugar's September 2026 study analyzed approximately 2,200 active entire homes. Its citywide median nightly rate was $69, but prices varied substantially between neighborhoods.

In Belén, the median was $57. Laureles-Estadio reached $64, while the smaller El Poblado neighborhood sample stood at $100.

Manila is especially interesting. Its median nightly rate was $78, considerably below the El Poblado neighborhood sample, yet its estimated occupancy reached 70%, compared with 53% in the latter.

That does not mean cheaper prices alone explain Manila's stronger occupancy. Location within the neighborhood, apartment quality, capacity, and guest preferences may all differ.

Traditional hotels also challenge the assumption that El Poblado automatically dominates accommodation demand. Official figures put Laureles hotel occupancy at 61.4% during the first half of 2026, slightly above El Poblado's 60.7%.

There is another important detail in the TuLugar figures: its Patio Bonito sample has a $125 median nightly rate, but includes just 31 homes. We would not treat that result as a reliable ranking of the most expensive neighborhood.

For Airbnb investors, comparing a property with similar apartments on nearby streets is much more useful than comparing it with the whole city.

Neighborhood	Median nightly rate	Occupancy	Median monthly revenue	Sampled homes
Patio Bonito	$125	67%	$2,688	31
Las Lomas No. 1	$126	50%	$2,008	116
El Poblado neighborhood	$100	53%	$1,478	87
Manila	$78	70%	$1,398	51
Laureles-Estadio	$64	53%	$944	568
La Candelaria	$54	45%	$772	196
Belén	$57	40%	$731	400

Are small Medellín Airbnbs facing the most competition?

Small apartments are the most crowded part of Medellín's Airbnb inventory, although we still lack the historical data needed to prove that their prices are falling faster than larger properties.

AirROI identifies 5,013 one-bedroom homes and 1,185 studios in its latest sample. Together, they account for approximately 53% of entire homes with a recorded bedroom count.

Add the 2,844 two-bedroom properties, and nearly 78% of the classified entire-home inventory consists of apartments with two bedrooms or fewer.

That concentration gives travelers plenty of similar properties to compare. A standard one-bedroom apartment with a basic kitchen and internet connection can find itself competing with hundreds of alternatives.

AirROI's amenity data help explain how hard it can be to stand out. Roughly 80% of Medellín listings already offer a dedicated workspace, while 79% have a washing machine. These features are common enough that hosts cannot assume they justify premium prices.

Air conditioning is less widespread, appearing in approximately 48% of listings, although its value depends on the neighborhood, climate, and guest profile.

Revenue differs sharply by property size. AirROI estimates median annual gross revenue of COP 18.7 million for one-bedroom homes, compared with COP 53.3 million for four-bedroom homes.

Larger properties naturally accommodate more guests and cost more to purchase or maintain. We cannot infer better profitability from higher revenue alone.

Property size	Listings	Avg. nightly rate	Median annual gross revenue	Occupancy
Studio	1,185	COP 173,047	COP 13.1M	42%
1 bedroom	5,013	COP 224,746	COP 18.7M	43%
2 bedrooms	2,844	COP 324,265	COP 26.8M	45%
3 bedrooms	1,576	COP 423,982	COP 29.2M	43%
4 bedrooms	439	COP 820,088	COP 53.3M	41%
5+ bedrooms	536	COP 2,042,303	COP 125.0M	39%

Is Medellín's Airbnb low season getting worse?

Medellín still has quieter and busier months, but tourism has actually become less seasonal over the long term. The city is attracting visitors more evenly throughout the year.

According to Medellín's tourism department, its busiest month received 2.43 times as many visitors as its quietest month in 2012. By 2025, that ratio had narrowed to 1.47.

The city's SITE seasonality index also reached its lowest recorded level for the 2015–2025 period.

That long-term improvement does not prevent short-term swings in accommodation demand. AirROI's recent figures show occupancy reaching 51.2% in December 2025, then falling to 39.6% in May 2026.

But nightly rates did not move in the same direction. Average prices increased from approximately COP 345,000 in May to COP 382,000 in August, a rise of nearly 11% over three months.

Monthly gross revenue per active listing also increased around 18% between those two months.

We should not mistake these sequential changes for a year-over-year trend because the months belong to different parts of the tourism calendar.

A genuine price decline needs to be measured against the same month in previous years, ideally using the same properties. Otherwise, a landlord could mistake an ordinary seasonal change for a broader market problem.

Month	Avg. nightly rate	Occupancy	Avg. monthly gross revenue
September 2025	COP 314,769	42.7%	COP 4.35M
December 2025	COP 328,640	51.2%	COP 5.32M
March 2026	COP 320,677	45.3%	COP 4.78M
May 2026	COP 344,607	39.6%	COP 4.84M
August 2026	COP 382,079	43.9%	COP 5.69M

Is the strong Colombian peso making Medellín too expensive for American tourists?

The stronger Colombian peso is making Medellín more expensive for American visitors, even when Airbnb hosts keep their prices unchanged in local currency.

Medellín's tourism department reported that the dollar fell as low as COP 3,221.4 during the first half of 2026, a level last seen in 2019, and called it a hit to the city's competitiveness. It kept going: the dollar closed 2025 at COP 3,757 and was about COP 3,190 on 22 October 2026, so a dollar buys about 15% fewer pesos than in January.

Consider an apartment priced at COP 350,000 per night.

At the end-2025 rate, that night cost about $93. At today's rate, the same night costs about $110.

That is about 18% more for a dollar-paying traveler, without the host changing the peso price. Forecasts for the peso disagree (BBVA expects about COP 3,640 at the end of 2026, Bancolombia about 3,420 on average), so hosts shouldn't plan on a quick reversal.

Currency movements are particularly relevant because the United States remains Medellín's largest foreign visitor market. Official Credibanco statistics attribute 53.3% of foreign-card transaction value to US cards during the first half of 2026.

Hosts targeting Americans may therefore face pressure to offer discounts or better value when the peso appreciates.

However, the direction of the exchange-rate effect matters. An unchanged peso price becomes more expensive in dollars when the peso strengthens. A falling dollar-denominated Airbnb rate would require a reduction in the underlying local price, a different mix of properties, or another change in the data.

Currency appreciation adds pressure on international demand, but it does not fully explain the reported decline in Airbnb rates.

Could Medellín's Airbnb regulations push prices back up?

Medellín's stricter approach to tourist rentals could eventually reduce competition among legal Airbnb properties, although current enforcement numbers are still small compared with the size of the market.

The city reported 408 inspections of tourist homes between 2024 and September 2026. Those inspections resulted in 105 temporary suspensions for regulatory violations.

That represents roughly 26% of inspected cases, but inspections target properties requiring checks. The rate cannot be generalized to every Airbnb in Medellín.

The bigger lever is formal registration. Only 8,322 tourist homes hold a valid RNT in 2026, against about 15,000 active listings counted by AirDNA. Tourist housing has been banned in low-mix residential zones since 2014, and the city's 13 October 2026 Q&A reminds owners that fines can reach 2,000 minimum wages.

The city is also revising its Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, or POT. The September 2026 proposal defines where tourist housing is allowed (high-mix zones and some transit corridors) rather than banning it, and the draft even simulated 16,232 lots that could host up to 179,521 tourist homes.

These are proposed planning changes, and the final rules and their effect on Airbnb capacity remain uncertain. A rule that allows that much room is unlikely to shrink supply enough to lift prices.

One development is already visible in the official register. Registered tourist-housing providers declined by 4.5% between 2025 and 2026, although the tourism department cautions that expired registrations and administrative changes do not necessarily mean properties have closed.

If enforcement removes a meaningful amount of available accommodation while guest demand remains steady, compliant operators may find it easier to maintain higher prices.

But 105 temporary suspensions over several years cannot, by themselves, reverse an accommodation market containing thousands of registered providers.

For now, the clearest effect of Medellín's regulation is greater legal risk for noncompliant properties. A measurable reduction in citywide Airbnb supply is still something we need to verify.

Can a Medellín Airbnb still make money at today's prices?

Medellín Airbnbs can still make money, but renting an ordinary apartment at today's market prices and turning it into a short-term rental looks financially risky.

AirROI estimates median annual gross revenue of COP 18.7 million for one-bedroom entire homes. That works out to approximately COP 1.56 million per month when averaged across a full year.

The figure includes properties with different operating periods, so it should not be treated as the expected monthly income of an apartment available every night.

Now compare the rental market. ClickCasa analyzed 9,133 apartment listings during the third quarter of 2026 and found a median asking rent of COP 3.65 million per month for one-bedroom apartments.

These two datasets do not describe matched properties. They nevertheless show why it is dangerous to assume that the average one-bedroom apartment can be rented and then profitably sublet to tourists.

We can test a more specific scenario.

Suppose an operator pays COP 3.65 million in monthly rent and charges COP 225,000 per booked night, close to AirROI's average one-bedroom nightly rate. Assume a 30-day month and Airbnb's 15.5% host-only service fee, which is now the norm for most hosts.

Under those assumptions, the apartment needs approximately 64% occupancy just to cover rent after platform fees.

That is far above AirROI's reported 43% average occupancy for one-bedroom homes. In Laureles-Estadio, where 1-beds ask about COP 2.6 million a month (ClickCasa, October 2026), the same maths gives a break-even near 46%: still above the average, before any other cost.

Even at 65% occupancy, the operator would have only around COP 57,000 left before paying for cleaning, utilities, repairs, taxes, management, and other expenses.

Airbnb's newer fee structure also deserves attention here. The platform explains that a host who previously charged $100 and received $97 after the host fee can charge $115 under the 15.5% single-fee arrangement and still receive approximately $97. This changes how prices and payouts appear without necessarily changing the guest's final payment.

An owner with no rent or mortgage payment faces very different economics. So does an operator with a cheaper apartment, strong reviews, or a much higher average nightly rate.

A relatively small difference in bookings or prices can determine whether a rented apartment makes money at all.

Monthly occupancy	Gross booking revenue	After 15.5% Airbnb fee	After COP 3.65M rent, before other costs
40%	COP 2.70M	COP 2.28M	-COP 1.37M
50%	COP 3.38M	COP 2.85M	-COP 0.80M
65%	COP 4.39M	COP 3.71M	+COP 0.06M
80%	COP 5.40M	COP 4.56M	+COP 0.91M

Should you buy a Medellín apartment for Airbnb while prices are under pressure?

Only if the unit makes sense as a normal rental first. Owning removes the rent problem above, but the numbers stay thin.

In our worked example for a 75 m² Laureles 2-bed at about COP 500 million (~$157,000), using AirROI's average 2-bed revenue of COP 42.4 million a year, the Airbnb nets about 2.5% after running costs, administración, predial and the 35% tax a non-resident pays on Colombian rental income. The same flat on a long lease at about COP 3.0 million a month nets about 2.9%.

Prices aren't waiting for you either. DANE measured new-home prices in the Medellín metro area up 9.14% in a year (Q2 2026), and the strong peso makes that COP 500 million flat cost about 18% more in dollars than in January.

What to aim for: a purchase price close to what similar flats sell for as plain homes, no "Airbnb premium" in the price, and a plan that still works at the 43%-50% occupancy the data show, not the 75%-80% some sellers promise.

Laureles 2-bed, ~COP 500 million	Airbnb	Long lease
Gross revenue per year	COP 42.4 million (AirROI average)	COP 36 million (COP 3.0 million x 12)
Net after costs and 35% non-resident tax	about 2.5%	about 2.9%
Extra work and risk	Furnishing, RNT, building approval, guest turnover	Rent rises capped at last year's CPI (5.10% in 2026)

What should you check before paying for a Medellín Airbnb unit?

Most bad Airbnb buys in Medellín fail on legality, not price. With roughly 15,000 listings and only 8,322 registered units, many listed units are not registered, and some apartments sold as "Airbnb-friendly" can't legally host short stays at all.

Check the land-use zone of the exact lot: tourist housing is banned in low-mix residential zones. Then read the building's bylaws (reglamento de propiedad horizontal): they must allow tourist use, and changing them needs 70% of the ownership coefficients, which rarely happens once residents are against it.

Ask for the unit's RNT, which is per unit and must be renewed between 1 January and 31 March every year, and ask whether the building already had complaints or inspections. Of 408 inspections since 2024, 105 ended in temporary suspensions.

Finally, get the real administración bill. Building fees rose 17.14% in a year nationally (DANE, September 2026); budget for it before you run the numbers.

Will Airbnb prices in Medellín keep falling?

Medellín Airbnb prices could remain under pressure, particularly for ordinary apartments, but the latest figures do not justify predicting another large citywide decline.

There are reasons to expect competition to remain intense. Medellín has accumulated a large stock of tourist accommodation, many properties offer similar amenities, and the latest official figures show softer occupancy.

Foreign visitors also face a less favorable exchange rate: about COP 3,190 per dollar in late October 2026, against COP 3,757 at the end of 2025.

But several forces could support prices. International travel into Medellín is still increasing, tourism is now spread more evenly across the year, and the official tourist-housing register has recently contracted.

We also have a major unresolved measurement problem: private data providers disagree about whether the number of active rental properties is currently increasing or decreasing.

The next useful test is whether comparable apartments in El Poblado, Laureles, and Belén can raise their revenue per available night over several consecutive year-over-year periods.

That would tell us much more than a single average nightly rate for all of Medellín.

Our expectation is that the gap between strong and weak listings will remain important. Properties offering little beyond a furnished apartment will face more pressure to compete on price, while well-located homes with strong reviews and amenities may continue charging a premium.

There is no convincing evidence yet that Medellín's entire Airbnb market has entered a lasting downward price cycle.

So, why are Airbnb prices falling in Medellín?

The claim is partly true. Medellín Airbnb prices are falling in some market datasets, but the stronger and better-supported story is that tourist accommodation has become much more competitive.

The main reason is the enormous growth of short-term rentals over the past seven years. Thousands of additional providers entered a market that was previously much smaller, giving visitors far more choices and making it harder for ordinary apartments to stand out.

At the same time, more international visitors have not guaranteed higher occupancy or stronger spending. Hotels have faced an even steeper occupancy slowdown than tourist apartments, and changes in the Colombian peso have made Medellín more expensive for many foreign guests.

The interesting part is what we have not found. There is no clear evidence of tourists abandoning Medellín, and the main private rental platforms cannot even agree on whether average nightly rates are currently rising or falling.

So where does that leave us?

Medellín's Airbnb market has become harder for average operators, particularly those relying on high occupancy to cover expensive monthly rents. Some hosts are likely discounting to remain competitive, while others can still charge strong rates because of their location, property quality, or guest demand.

We should expect continued pressure on undifferentiated apartments rather than assume that every Airbnb in Medellín will become cheaper.

For investors, the old assumption that almost any furnished apartment could earn attractive tourist-rental income now looks particularly dangerous. The market still has plenty of visitors, but making money from those visitors requires much more careful property selection and pricing.