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SUMMARY
Yes. Property prices in Argentina are likely to keep rising, but the next stage should be much slower and more uneven than the rebound that started around 2023.
The strongest part of the recovery has already happened in several markets. Córdoba is up 31.5% from its May 2023 low, Rosario about 25% from October 2023, and Greater Buenos Aires North 11.5% from November 2023.
Buenos Aires is now telling a different story. Apartment asking prices are still rising, but only 1.3% over the last 12 months, the weakest annual increase in 28 months.
That slowdown has not come with a collapse in demand. Buenos Aires recorded 35,528 property transactions during the first seven months of 2026, only 1.8% below the unusually strong comparable period in 2025.
The bigger weakness is mortgages. Overall transaction activity has held up remarkably well even though mortgage-backed purchases have fallen sharply, which shows how heavily Argentina's housing market still depends on cash buyers.
This also creates a clear upside path. Mortgages represented only around 16% of Buenos Aires purchases in July, so a sustained expansion in housing credit could add a large new source of demand without requiring the current market to become heavily leveraged.
Cheaper mortgage rates alone will not be enough. Initial payments on a US$100,000 property can still approach or exceed ARS1 million, leaving household income as the real constraint on how much extra demand lower rates can unlock.
Several fundamentals support gradual appreciation rather than a new boom: Buenos Aires remains 11.7% below its historical asking-price peak, rental yields are close to 6%, and construction costs are rising faster than sale prices in some markets.
The main macro risk remains the peso. Argentine property is commonly priced in dollars while most local buyers earn in pesos, so another abrupt currency adjustment could hit affordability long before sellers start cutting dollar asking prices.
The most plausible base case is therefore low-to-mid-single-digit annual dollar price growth nationally, with larger differences between cities and neighbourhoods. A real second leg higher would probably require mortgages, real wages and transaction volumes to strengthen together.
Are property prices in Argentina already rising?
Argentina property prices are already rising in several major markets, but the latest numbers show a much slower climb than the rebound of 2023-2025.
The clearest example is Buenos Aires. Zonaprop currently puts the average apartment asking price in the city at US$2,471 per square meter. Prices have gained 0.9% so far in 2026 and 1.3% over the last 12 months. That annual increase is the weakest in 28 months.
Move outside the capital and the recovery looks much larger. Apartment prices in Córdoba have risen 31.5% since their May 2023 turning point. Rosario is up about 25% since October 2023, while Greater Buenos Aires North has gained 11.5% since November 2023.
Those three turning points occurring within months of each other tell us something useful. Argentina went through a genuine property-market reversal around 2023. What has changed lately is the speed. Córdoba rose only 1.9% during the first quarter of 2026, compared with 4.8% in the same period a year earlier. Buenos Aires is moving even more slowly.
So the question is no longer whether the Argentine property recovery exists. It does. The harder question now is whether buyers have enough income and financing to carry prices much further.
| Market | Latest average apartment price | Increase since recent low | Latest pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buenos Aires City | US$2,471/m² | Recovery underway since 2023 | +1.3% over 12 months |
| Greater Buenos Aires North | US$2,410/m² | +11.5% since Nov. 2023 | +1.7% in 2026 |
| Córdoba | US$1,474/m² | +31.5% since May 2023 | +1.9% in Q1 2026 |
| Rosario | US$1,841/m² | +25% since Oct. 2023 | +3.4% through May 2026 |
Why have Buenos Aires property prices slowed so much?
Buenos Aires property prices are still going up today, but buyers have stopped pushing them higher with the same force as during the first stage of the recovery.
The progression is now tiny. Zonaprop measured a 0.1% increase in July, taking the average price to US$2,471 per square meter. The city has gained only 0.9% since the beginning of the year.
The slowdown becomes clearer over a longer period. The latest 1.3% annual increase is the weakest recorded in 28 months. Buenos Aires has gone from falling prices, to a clear rebound, and now to something much closer to slow appreciation.
The city still has an important cushion. Current asking prices remain 11.7% below the historical peak of Zonaprop's series and are roughly back around their May 2021 level. Returning from US$2,471 per square meter to the old peak would require an increase of about 13%.
There is room to rise without returning to historically extreme valuations. But the old peak will not drag prices upward on its own. Buyers still need enough money to close that gap, and the newest demand data are much less aggressive than the remaining 13% upside might suggest.
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Are people still buying property in Buenos Aires?
People are still buying a lot of property in Buenos Aires, although transaction volumes have stopped growing compared with last year's unusually strong recovery.
The Buenos Aires Notaries Association recorded 6,051 purchase deeds in July. That was the strongest month of 2026, yet it was 9% below the 6,651 transactions recorded one year earlier.
The first seven months give us a cleaner view than one month. There were 35,528 transactions between January and July, down only 1.8% from the same period in 2025.
Calling that a weak property market would be misleading. The president of the Notaries Association pointed out that the July totals in both 2025 and 2026 were among the strongest seen in many years, with a higher July reading last recorded in 2008.
What has disappeared is the rapid acceleration. Buyers returned in force during the recovery, and today's market is maintaining much of that activity rather than adding another large wave of demand.
That also explains how Buenos Aires prices can keep edging upward while annual growth falls toward 1%. Homes are changing hands. Buyers just are not competing hard enough yet to create large price increases.
| Buenos Aires sales activity | Transactions | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 5,435 | -3.1% |
| June 2026 | 5,990 | +4.0% |
| July 2026 | 6,051 | -9.0% |
| Jan.-July 2026 | 35,528 | -1.8% |
Are mortgages finally coming back in Argentina?
Mortgage lending in Argentina is recovering again right now, but credit remains far below the level needed for a serious housing boom.
The latest improvement is quite sharp. Around US$202 million of UVA mortgages were disbursed in July, the strongest monthly figure since December. That followed approximately US$150 million in June and US$116 million in May.
Looking only at those three months would make the mortgage recovery look stronger than it really is. During the first seven months of 2026, Argentina issued 14,715 mortgage loans, according to figures reported when the government announced its latest housing-finance plan. The equivalent period in 2025 produced 24,271 loans.
That is a 39% drop.
Buenos Aires shows the same gap between property demand and financed demand. The city recorded 959 purchases with a mortgage in July, down 31.2% from one year earlier. There were 5,111 mortgage-backed deeds during the first seven months, a decline of roughly 36%.
Mortgages accounted for around 16% of Buenos Aires purchases in July. Credit has become relevant again after years when Argentina's housing market operated largely without it, but cash buyers still dominate.
As seen above, overall transactions have remained remarkably resilient despite the fall in mortgages. For future prices, that creates an interesting setup: the market is functioning without strong credit growth, while a genuine recovery in lending could add another source of demand.
| Mortgage indicator | Latest reading | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| UVA lending in May | ~US$116m | Recent low |
| UVA lending in June | ~US$150m | Strong rebound |
| UVA lending in July | ~US$202m | Best since December |
| Mortgages issued Jan.-July | 14,715 | -39% YoY |
| Mortgage-backed CABA deeds Jan.-July | 5,111 | ~-36% YoY |
| Mortgage share of CABA purchases in July | ~16% | Still a minority |
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Will cheaper mortgages push Argentine property prices higher?
Cheaper mortgages could push Argentine property prices higher, but today's repayments still exclude a large share of ordinary households.
Several banks cut UVA mortgage rates after financing conditions became much tougher during the second half of 2025. By July, La Nación's comparison found rates of 4.2% at Banco Municipal de Rosario, 6% at Banco Nación, 6.9% at ICBC, 7.5% at BBVA and Banco Ciudad, 8% at Credicoop and 8.5% at Banco Macro.
The picture keeps moving. Banco Nación, which has been one of the biggest lenders since mortgages returned, subsequently raised its rate for qualifying first-home borrowers from 6% to 6.7%.
Even at the cheaper banks, the monthly payment remains substantial. La Nación calculated that financing a US$100,000 property over 20 years produced an initial payment of about ARS829,000 with ICBC's 6.9% rate and roughly ARS867,000 at banks charging 7.5%. At several lenders, the starting payment was above ARS1 million.
Banks generally limit the initial mortgage payment to a fraction of household income, so the salary required to qualify rises quickly.
Mortgage rates matter enormously, but wages matter just as much. A 6-7% UVA loan will not create mass demand if only relatively high-income households can pass the affordability test.
Has the Argentine government done anything that could change the mortgage market?
Argentina has just taken a meaningful step toward making more mortgage funding available, although we still need to see how much extra lending banks actually produce.
The government recently announced a plan to channel ARS2 trillion of long-term funding into the banking system for first-home mortgages. The money would come through the Sustainability Guarantee Fund and is designed to tackle one of the structural problems Argentine banks face when offering 20- or 30-year housing loans: their own funding is usually much shorter term.
This deserves more attention than a routine housing-policy announcement. The current mortgage market has a funding problem as well as an affordability problem. Banks can advertise mortgages, yet scaling them becomes harder if they lack cheap long-duration liabilities.
The timing is interesting too. July mortgage disbursements had already recovered to US$202 million before the new scheme could meaningfully affect lending. If the new funding allows banks to maintain or improve that pace, mortgage demand could look very different in 2027 from the weak first half of 2026.
There is still a large gap to close. The 14,715 mortgages issued during the first seven months were 39% below the same period last year. We would want to see several quarters of higher originations before treating the government program as a new driver of property prices.
For now, the policy makes the upside case more credible. It does not prove it yet.
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Is Argentina's economy strong enough to keep property prices rising?
Argentina's economy is currently strong enough to support gradual property appreciation, although household demand remains much weaker than the headline recovery might suggest.
INDEC's latest data show economic activity increasing 0.8% in June from the previous month. Earlier quarterly data showed GDP growing 2.3% year on year in the first quarter and 0.7% from the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment.
Inflation has also changed enormously from the levels that made long-term financial planning almost impossible. Consumer prices rose 2.1% in July. That is still very high by normal international standards, but Argentina is now dealing with monthly inflation around 2% rather than the extreme rates seen during the worst of the crisis.
Wages give us a more mixed picture. INDEC reported that its salary index rose 35.9% year on year in May and 15.2% from December. Whether a particular household is genuinely better off depends heavily on its sector and on what happened to prices and the exchange rate over the same period.
That uneven recovery fits the property market pretty well. Macro stability has improved enough for buyers, sellers and banks to return. Household finances have not improved enough to unleash a broad leveraged buying boom.
| Current economic indicator | Latest official reading | Relevance for housing |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly CPI | +2.1% | Inflation is far below crisis levels but remains high |
| Economic activity, June | +0.8% MoM | Growth has resumed |
| Q1 GDP | +2.3% YoY | Supports housing demand |
| Q1 unemployment | 7.8% | Labour market remains a constraint |
| Wage index, May | +35.9% YoY | Income is recovering unevenly |
Could Argentina's peso ruin the property recovery again?
A fresh peso shock could quickly weaken Argentina's property recovery because homes are usually priced in dollars while most buyers earn their salaries in pesos.
That currency mismatch is one of the biggest differences between Argentina and more conventional housing markets. A buyer may receive a peso salary increase and still become poorer in property terms if the peso falls faster against the dollar.
The latest BCRA survey of professional forecasters expects the official exchange rate to continue depreciating. A controlled adjustment can coexist perfectly well with rising dollar property prices, particularly if wages and economic activity keep up.
Trouble starts when the adjustment becomes abrupt. Dollar properties suddenly cost far more relative to local incomes, mortgage affordability deteriorates, and buyers step away.
Argentina has seen this mechanism repeatedly. Sellers often resist cutting dollar asking prices straight away, so the first symptom can be fewer deals rather than an immediate collapse in quoted values.
This is the strongest reason not to forecast a smooth multi-year rise with too much confidence. Argentina's housing fundamentals are improving, but currency stability can still interrupt the cycle very quickly.
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Are construction costs pushing Argentine property prices higher?
Higher construction costs are making existing Argentine property more attractive relative to building new supply, which should support prices over time.
INDEC's construction-cost index for Greater Buenos Aires rose 2.7% in May, 2.6% in June and another 2.1% in July. The latest monthly increase came from a 1.6% rise in materials and 2.5% increases in both labour and general expenses.
Rosario gives us a better sense of the scale. Zonaprop reported that apartment asking prices rose 3.4% during 2026 through May, while construction costs measured in dollars had increased 16.5% over the comparable period.
A developer facing costs rising five times faster than sale prices has limited room. New projects eventually need higher selling prices, cheaper land, lower costs or better margins elsewhere in the development.
Existing apartments benefit indirectly. If new units become more expensive to produce, buyers have less cheap new supply competing with older properties.
The effect takes time because developers can delay projects and construction costs can reverse. Still, this is one of the stronger medium-term supports for prices these days, especially in markets where new construction would otherwise cap appreciation.
Are rental yields good enough for Argentina property investors?
Rental yields in Argentina are attractive enough again to keep investors interested, especially compared with the exceptionally low returns seen a few years ago.
Zonaprop currently calculates a 5.76% gross annual rental yield for an average Buenos Aires apartment. At that rate, gross rent would recover the purchase price in about 17.3 years before expenses, taxes, maintenance and vacancies.
Greater Buenos Aires North is similar at 5.96%.
The comparison with the earlier market is striking. Buenos Aires yields were around 2% during parts of 2020 and averaged roughly 2.9% in 2021. Today's yield is about twice that level.
That changes the investment equation. Buyers no longer need to rely almost entirely on future capital appreciation to make a rental property look interesting.
There is also a natural ceiling hidden in those numbers. If sale prices rise much faster than rents, yields will compress and investors will become less enthusiastic. A healthier scenario would see property values, rents and incomes rise together.
Mid-single-digit rental yields therefore support gradual appreciation much better than they support a sudden speculative surge.
| Area | Gross rental yield | Years of gross rent to repay purchase |
|---|---|---|
| Buenos Aires City | 5.76% | 17.3 years |
| Greater Buenos Aires North | 5.96% | 16.8 years |
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Will Córdoba and Rosario keep beating Buenos Aires?
Córdoba and Rosario could keep outperforming Buenos Aires, but their huge rebound since 2023 makes another equally large jump much harder from here.
Córdoba has already gained 31.5% since May 2023. Rosario is up around 25% since October 2023. Buenos Aires, by comparison, still sits 11.7% below its historical peak.
That does not automatically make Buenos Aires the better investment. It does tell us that Córdoba and Rosario have already used up much more of their obvious post-crisis catch-up.
We can see that happening in Córdoba now. Apartment prices rose 1.9% during the first quarter, well below the 4.8% increase recorded during the same period in 2025.
Rosario was still moving faster through May, with a 3.4% gain during 2026. Yet even there, current growth looks much smaller beside the cumulative 25% recovery from the bottom.
The next stage should depend more on local rents, incomes, new construction and neighbourhood-level demand than on a simple national rebound trade.
A single forecast for "Argentina property prices" therefore becomes misleading very quickly. Córdoba, Rosario, Buenos Aires and suburban Buenos Aires have already shown dramatically different price paths inside the same national economy.
What would make Argentina property prices rise much faster?
Argentina property prices could rise much faster if mortgage lending and household purchasing power begin improving at the same time.
Credit is the biggest potential accelerator. Only about 16% of Buenos Aires transactions used a mortgage in July. That leaves enormous room for financed demand to grow without mortgages ever reaching the penetration seen in countries where borrowing dominates home purchases.
The July rebound to US$202 million of UVA lending is encouraging. The government's new ARS2 trillion mortgage-funding program could help banks extend more loans. Falling inflation would make those loans easier for households to understand and service.
But credit alone will not do it. Salaries need to support the repayments, and buyers need enough confidence in the peso and the economy to take on debt indexed over decades.
We would become much more bullish if mortgage originations kept rising for several quarters while total sales moved clearly above 2025 levels. Add stronger real wages and sellers would have much more pricing power.
Under those conditions, high-single-digit dollar price growth in selected markets would become much easier to justify. Sustained double-digit gains would require an even stronger expansion in credit and household incomes.
Today's data have not reached that point.
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What could stop Argentine property prices from rising?
The most realistic threat to Argentine property prices is a combination of weaker household incomes, expensive credit and renewed currency instability.
There are several ways that combination could develop. Inflation could stop falling. The peso could weaken faster than wages. Banks could keep mortgage rates high or restrict lending. Economic growth could continue while failing to reach the households actually trying to buy apartments.
The latest housing data show how easily a milder version could happen. Buenos Aires prices have gained only 1.3% over the last 12 months, while total transactions are slightly below last year's level and mortgage-backed purchases have fallen sharply.
Stagnation is therefore a very credible downside scenario. Argentina does not need another dramatic housing crash for an investor to be disappointed. Several years of 0-3% annual dollar appreciation would be enough to make the market feel flat, especially after transaction costs and maintenance.
A larger fall would probably require a genuine macroeconomic shock. We do not currently see the oversupply, excessive household leverage or speculative buying usually associated with a classic housing bubble bursting.
The main risk comes from Argentina's economy rather than from an obviously overheated property market.
So, are property prices in Argentina likely to rise?
Yes. Property prices in Argentina are more likely to rise than fall from here, but current evidence points to a slow and uneven climb rather than another explosive rebound.
We can now separate the recovery into two phases.
The first phase has already happened. Córdoba gained 31.5% from its 2023 low, Rosario roughly 25%, and Greater Buenos Aires North 11.5%. Buenos Aires stopped falling and returned to about US$2,471 per square meter.
The second phase is proving harder. Buenos Aires prices are growing only 1.3% annually. Overall property sales remain high by historical standards but have stopped accelerating. Mortgage activity improved sharply in July, yet the number of loans issued during the first seven months still trails last year by 39%.
There are good reasons to expect more upside. Buenos Aires remains 11.7% below its historical price peak. Gross rental yields are close to 6%. Building new property is getting more expensive. Monthly inflation has fallen dramatically from crisis levels. Mortgage credit exists again, and the government's latest funding program gives banks a possible route to expand it.
The weakness is still household purchasing power. Argentina can stabilize its currency, improve the banking system and grow exports without immediately making a US$100,000 apartment affordable to a middle-income family. For property prices to accelerate, the housing recovery needs to reach household incomes much more clearly.
Our base case is a continued rise in dollar-denominated residential prices, with low-to-mid-single-digit annual gains looking more realistic than double-digit growth across the country. Particular neighbourhoods and cities can do considerably better.
A stronger mortgage cycle would change that forecast quickly. If the recent rebound in lending survives, the new long-term funding reaches banks and wages improve enough for more households to qualify, Argentina could move into a much stronger second leg of the housing recovery.
For now, prices look more likely to grind higher than surge. That is less spectacular than the 2023-2025 rebound, but it is much easier to defend from what buyers, banks and transactions are actually doing.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether property prices in Argentina are likely to rise by combining the latest evidence on asking prices, completed transactions, mortgage lending, household affordability, economic conditions, construction costs, rental yields and housing-finance policy.
We gave the greatest weight to indicators closest to what buyers and sellers are actually doing. Zonaprop's price series were used to track current asking-price levels and recent turning points in Buenos Aires City, Greater Buenos Aires North, Córdoba and Rosario, while completed deeds from the Colegio de Escribanos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires were used to check whether price movements were being supported by actual transactions.
Mortgage activity was assessed separately because Argentina's property market still operates very differently from markets where most purchases are financed. We used banking-system and mortgage data from the BCRA, current lending conditions reported by Banco Nación and other banks, and recent mortgage comparisons to assess both the availability of credit and the income required to use it.
We treated the government's new ARS2 trillion mortgage-funding program as a forward-looking factor rather than as lending that has already happened. The program could improve the supply of long-term mortgage funding, but we would need to see sustained growth in mortgage originations before treating it as an established driver of property prices.
Official INDEC data on inflation, wages, economic activity, GDP, employment and construction costs were used to test whether the broader economy can support further housing appreciation. The BCRA's Survey of Market Expectations was also used when assessing currency risk, since the peso-dollar relationship remains especially important in a market where properties are generally quoted in dollars but most domestic incomes are earned in pesos.
Rental yields were used as an investment-demand check rather than as a direct price forecast. Current yields around the mid-single digits suggest that rental property has become more economically attractive than during the extremely low-yield years around 2020-2021, while also providing a rough limit on how far sale prices can outrun rents before investor returns become less compelling.
We compared current readings with recent history wherever that helped separate a genuine shift from short-term noise. This is particularly important here because Córdoba, Rosario, Buenos Aires City and suburban Buenos Aires all entered the recovery at different speeds and have already accumulated very different gains since their recent lows.
Key sources used for this analysis include Zonaprop's Buenos Aires City property index, Zonaprop's Greater Buenos Aires sale-price index, Zonaprop's Córdoba index, Zonaprop's Rosario index, the Colegio de Escribanos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires on July transactions, the BCRA's July Statistical Bulletin, the BCRA Survey of Market Expectations, Argentina's Ministry of Economy on the new mortgage-funding program, Banco Nación's official mortgage conditions, and official INDEC inflation, economic activity, GDP, wage, labour-market and construction-cost data.
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